1. Attracting & Retaining Talent: Can Texas Compete? July 12, 2007 Tom Stellman TEDC Conference – Amarillo, TX

4. TIP Projects

6. Evolution of Economic Development Goals Talent and Quality of Place Knowledge Higher Wages More Jobs Buildings 2010 2000 1990 1970 1980 evolutionary scale

9. US manufacturing vs. services Source: US Bureau Labor Statistics; Economy.com

10. US mfg: output vs. employment Source: US Bureau Labor Statistics; US Bureau of Economic Analysis; Economy.com

11. US Employment Forecast 2006-2016

12. Two-thirds of all new jobs from just three major sectors.

13. Global Working Age Population SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Database population age 15-64 (in millions) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Germany Japan Russia UK projection

14. US Working Age Population SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Database population age 15-64 (in millions) The generation ahead: expect a tight labor market since we won’t be adding workers at the pace with which we are accustomed. 2007: you are here projection 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

15. US Labor Shortage? Since 1990, the US has added more than 1.5 million jobs annually . However, we are nearing a point when the annual net increase in the working age population will fall to about 500,000. SOURCES: TIP Strategies; U.S. Census Bureau; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis net chg in population age 18-64 0 250,000 500,000 750,000 1,000,000 1,250,000 1,500,000 1,750,000 2,000,000 2,250,000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Projected Net Annual Change in the Working Age Population (18-64) Average Annual Job Creation Since 1990

16. Texas Labor Projections Since 1990, Texas has added more than 184,000 jobs annually . That’s about the level of growth our working-age population will experience when the Baby Boomers start retiring. Factor in a labor force participation rate of 2/3, and yes, Houston, we may have a problem. SOURCES: TIP Strategies; U.S. Census Bureau; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis net chg in population age 18-64 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Projected Net Annual Change in the Working Age Population (18-64) Average Annual Job Creation Since 1990

17. US Working Age Population by Generation SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census, projections based on 2000 Census population age 18-64 2011: The Baby Boomers reach retirement age 2030: Gen X reaches retirement age 2018: Gen Y makes up half of the working age population projection 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 (in millions) pre-Boomers (born before 1946) Baby Boomers (born 1946-1964) Generation X (born 1965-1977) Generation Y and beyond (born post-1977)

18. US Labor Force Participation by Gender SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics women men labor force participation rate (%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

19. US Bachelor’s Degrees by Gender SOURCE: National Center for Education Statistics women men Bachelor’s degrees conferred projection 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 1,000,000 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

20. Texas Working Age Population by Generation population age 18-64 At the surface, the generational pattern in Texas looks (and is) the same as the US. The difference is that the working age population in Texas will grow at a faster pace. SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census, projections based on 2000 Census projection 0 5 10 15 20 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 (in millions) pre-Boomers (born before 1946) Baby Boomers (born 1946-1964) Generation X (born 1965-1977) Generation Y and beyond (born post-1977)

21. Texas Contribution to Net Population Growth SOURCE: Texas State Data Center contribution to net population growth (%)

22. Texas Educational Attainment 2005 SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census, American Community Survey 2005 % of population age 25+

23. Source: US Census Bureau "Importers" & "Exporters" of Domestic Migrants, 2000-2006 Top & Bottom Ten States

27. Components of Population Change in West Texas Metros, 2000-2006 Ranked by Percent Change Source: US Census Bureau Migration Natural Increase Total Change -9,885 381 -9,195 13,208 -4.0% -5,996 Wichita Falls MSA -7,320 490 -9,617 14,775 -1.4% -2,182 Abilene MSA -3,770 434 -6,370 10,036 0.0% -29 San Angelo MSA -3,340 1,961 -12,719 25,551 4.7% 11,711 Lubbock MSA -2,175 1,416 -6,679 14,152 5.2% 6,339 Odessa MSA 1,842 3,515 -12,762 23,226 6.6% 14,993 Amarillo MSA 1,623 1,186 -5,731 11,716 7.2% 8,371 Midland MSA Domestic Int’l Deaths Births % #

30. Foreign National Engineering Degrees (% of graduates)

31. What are Employers Saying? “ Keep your tax incentives and highway intersections. We will go where the highly skilled people are.” — Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett Packard

35. The War for Talent *by Ed Michaels, Helen Handfield-Jones, & Beth Axelrod Harvard Business School Press - 2001 Talented people are scarce Jobs are scarce People are mobile and their commitment is short term Employees are loyal and jobs are secure People demand much more People accept the standard package they are offered Better talent makes a huge difference Better talent makes some difference Talented people are the competitive advantage Machines, capital, and geography are the competitive advantage Companies need people People need companies The New Reality The Old Reality

46. Greater Killeen Area OPERATION ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION A BLUEPRINT FOR ADVANCING ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES IN THE FORT HOOD REGION Veterans Inventory

47. SURVEY OF POST-MILITARY SERVICE INTENT

51. Quality of Place Factors

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