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Assumptions exercise template Oct-13

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Assumptions exercise template Oct-13

  1. 1. Assumptions & Risks Exercise Last updated Oct 2013
  2. 2. Introduction The purpose of this exercise is to help you think through your belief system for your big idea. By understanding your assumptions and identifying the risky ones, you will know what you need to go learn and test. The answers to the questions should be very concise and as specific as possible. Don’t list all the possible answers, but rather share what you currently believe is the most likely answer. Remember: it is ok to be wrong if you find out the truth quickly.
  3. 3. My target customer will be: ____________________________________ Customer Assumption Tip: How would you describe your primary target customer?
  4. 4. The problem my customer wants to solve is: ____________________________________ Problem Assumption Tip: What does your customer struggle with or what need do they want to fulfill?
  5. 5. My customer’s need can be solved with: ____________________________________ Solution Assumption Tip: Provide a very concise description (elevator pitch) of your product
  6. 6. The measurable outcome my customer wants to achieve is: ____________________________________ Customer Outcome Assumption Tip: What measurable change happens in your customer’s life that makes them love your product?
  7. 7. The measurable outcome my business wants to achieve by creating this product is: ____________________________________ Business Outcome Assumption Tip: Is there a particular outcome that your business is seeking?
  8. 8. My primary customer acquisition tactic will be: ____________________________________ Customer Acquisition Assumption Tip: You will have multiple marketing channels, but there is often one, at most two, that dominates your customer acquisition. What is your current guess?
  9. 9. My earliest adopter will be: ____________________________________ Early Adopter Assumption Tip: You cannot get to your mainstream customer without getting early adopters first! Who are they?
  10. 10. I will make money (revenue) by: ____________________________________ Monetization Assumption Tip: Does revenue come from subscriptions? advertising? Don’t list all the ideas for making money. Pick your primary one and share it here.
  11. 11. My primary competition will be: ____________________________________ Competition Assumption Tip: This is one topic where it is ok to list more than one or two. Who is your direct competition? indirect competition?
  12. 12. I will beat my competitors primarily because of: ____________________________________ Differentiation Assumption Tip: What will truly differentiate you from competitors?
  13. 13. My biggest risk to financial viability is: ____________________________________ Financial Assumption Tip: what could prevent you from getting to breakeven? is there something baked into your revenue or cost model that you can de-risk?
  14. 14. My biggest technical or engineering risk is: ____________________________________ Engineering Assumption Tip: Is there a major technical challenge that could get in the way of actually building your product?
  15. 15. What assumptions do we have that, if proven wrong, would cause this to fail? Risks to failure 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.
  16. 16. Of everything you just filled out, what are your biggest concerns? Risks to failure 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Tip: Think about the beliefs that, if you really are honest, have a lot of uncertainty baked into them and could seriously impact your business.
  17. 17. Next Steps: Experiments Given your big concerns, how can you gather evidence that you are on the right path in the next 2 days? The next week or two? What experiment can you run? Who can you interview? Don’t lose sight of your vision, but focus on speed of learning and pay that risk down!
  18. 18. About Us Headquartered in San Francisco, Neo Innovation, Inc. (www.neo.com) is a global product innovation company. We partner with our clients to make digital products that people need, want and love. Like a startup, we understand that a digital product is a continuous process that requires ongoing iterations to meet evolving goals. Like a global company, we understand that products must ultimately deliver business value. Neo’s clients cover the spectrum from startups to large enterprises and governments and include world-recognized organizations like Time, American Express, PayPal, Sunlight Foundation, GE, AT&T, ICANN and Turnstone. contact@neo.com Credits Exercise: @giffco Slide 15: @clevergirl

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