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glen hiemstra
…rather than a search for a truly
new future
most planning is a search for
a more efficient past...
Glen Hiemstra
DISRUPTION
$92
$28
$46?
energy future
These are “epic times in
the oil market,”
said Matt Smith, director of commodity
research at ClipperData in 2015
“As we have written for
some time, we expect all
car companies would
eventually see nearly 100
percent of their revenues
shift from the sale of
human-driven/
individually-owned cars to
robot-driven/shared cars.”
- Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley,
Aug. 17, 2015
- www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/tesla-uber-
rival_55d1e72fe4b0ab468d9db3fd
science fiction arriving
New York 1900 New York 1920
what is your image of the future?
probable?
possible?
preferred?
not a mystery
social driving forces...
❏ U.S. middle class squeeze - global growth
❏ millennials come of age, 75% of workforce in 2025
❏ intelligence in everything
❏ power of connectivity
❏ regulation and cheaper renewable energy
key driving technologies...
❏ energy efficiency
❏ demand side management
❏ smart grids and cities
❏ convergence of IT and distribution
❏ falling solar prices
• STEEP
• society & demographics
• technology & science
• economy & markets
• environment & energy
• politics, regulation &
government
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Population(billions)
Year
Population Growth
Less Developed Regions
More Developed Regions
2010 2030 2050
people of the screen...
will not accept old limitations
world population growth, by age, to 2050
Percent
Under 15
15-64
Over 65
0 50 100 150 200
Photo http://blogs.ft.com/photo-diary/2013/10/older-persons-day/
loving cities
nano | bio | info | cogno | robo | space
3D | connectivity | convergence
internet of everything
In the next 20 years PC’s will be replaced by
millions of tiny intelligent systems embedded in
our clothes, jewelry, cars, furniture, and walls.
They will recognize voice commands and carry
out simple wishes. They will cost less than a
penny, less than scrap paper, so companies which
do not put chips [intelligence] in all their
products will be at a severe disadvantage.

Michio Kaku, 1998
what is internet of everything?
platform for devices to communicate with the world around
them and to integrate human, natural and built worlds
when things are smart
http://www.districtoffuture.eu/uploads/imagenes/imagenes_meetinpoint_smart-city_2b637ab6.jpg
smart city
when things are smart
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3659201/Rolls-Royce-reveals-remote-controlled-roboship-augmented-reality-central-control-deck-hundreds-miles-away-sea-2020.html
when things are smart
phonosapiens
33 per 100
2005
97 per 100
2015
more connection =
more innovation
more inventions
more opportunity
Ideas Multiply Resource Access
0	
5	
10	
15	
20	
25	
30	
35	
1972	 2002	 2011	 2030	(projected)	
Barrels	of	Oil	Per	Person	Per	Year	
Barrels	of	Oil	Per	Person	Per	Year	
Colfert
disintermediation, disruption
displacement
$62 Billion $20 BillionUBER
what can be shared will be shared
environmental imperative
how will we power a
smart future?
Cost of Solar Power$77.00
$0.36
200 x Price Decline
Grid parity
“Renewables are now…..deflationary
to energy prices.” - UBS
LOWER COST HIGHER DENSITY
																							BATTERY														PRICE	(10x	decline)
ENERGY	STORED	PER	GRAM	(3x)
Solar City Giga Factory, Buffalo NY 2017
cost trends plus technology plus
environment issues plus optimizing
resources suggest continued energy
turbulence, transitions…
requiring great resilience and continuous
examination of your mission and
business models and lean operations in
the coming years
what is your image of the future?
the future is not
something that just
happens to us
the future is
something we do
www.futurist.com
glen@futurist.com
twitter.com/glenhiemstra
linkedin.com/glenhiemstra
thank you for your time
for more information

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