Presented at Riga's annual tourism partners forum, this presentation looks at the characteristics of five key outbound markets of interest to Riga (Ger, UK, Fr, NL-Be, Nordics). The presentation also goes deep into the trends in consumer culture and city management that will shape European city tourism over the next decade. Toposophy associates are ready to assist your tourism forum with their insights and recommendations.

1. THE FUTURE OF
EUROPEAN TOURISM
TO 2025
RIGA TOURISM PARTNERS FORUM
29 OCTOBER 2015

2. • Senior Tourism Analyst, TOPOSOPHY
• Specialist in Millennial traveller
trends and strategy
• Over 13 years’ experience in global
tourism policy (UNWTO, WYSE,
PATA)
• Consultancy and strategic advice on
making your destination ready for
next-gen travellers
• TOPOSOPHY: Helping Destination
Marketing Organizations become
Peter
Jordan

3. P E R F O R M A N C E O F K E Y
M A R K E T S
M E G A T R E N D S T H A T W I L L S H A P E
E U R O P E A N T O U R I S M T O 2 0 2 5

7. WE REVEAL THE BEST OF WHAT EVERY PLACE HAS TO OFFER

8. PERFORMANCE OF KEY
EUROPEAN OUTBOUND MARKETS
OF INTEREST TO RIGA

9. GENERAL PICTURE
ACROSS EUROPE
PERFORMANCE OF
KEY MARKETS

10. 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
China
US
Germany
Russia
UK
France
Canada
Australia
Italy
Brazil
Singapore
Belgium
Japan
Rep.Korea
HongKong
Netherlands
Norway
UAE
SaudiArabia
Sweden
Spain
Switzerland
Taiwan
Malaysia
India
Kuwait
Austria
Denmark
Mexico
Poland
Expenditure(US$billion)
Source: UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, Oct 2014
The world’s top spenders on tourism in 2013

11. General picture across Europe
• Post-crisis recovery is well underway
• Despite economic uncertainty, there is pent-up demand from
from Germany, UK, France, Italy and the Netherlands
• Strong US dollar and rise in disposable income among US
consumers has led to a boom year for US-outbound travel
• Europe maintains its attraction for other long-haul markets such
such as China and India – already seeing greater dispersal
• Ongoing tension with Russia has continued from 2014 into 2015
2015

12. A C L O S E R L O O K
AT S P E C I F I C
M A R K E T S :
• G e r m a n y
• U n i t e d K i n g d o m
• F r a n c e
• N L - B E
• N o r d i c

13. GERMANY
PERFORMANCE OF
KEY MARKETS

14. GERMANY – Current situation
• Ranked 3rd outbound market in the world after China
and the US
• Weak euro has helped exports, while low oil prices, and
stable wages have boosted the economy and consumer
confidence.
• IMF predicts 1.7% GDP growth in 2016
• Lowest unemployment level in 20 years
• A mature market, highly competitive
• 2015 has seen transport strikes

15. PERFORMANCE OF
KEY MARKETS
Source: ETC Trends & Prospects - Q2, 2015

16. GERMANY – The German traveller
• Holidays are culturally very important – few Germans like
to give them up
• Traditional media (TV, press, radio) is losing ground quickly
to digital media. Rapid rise in digi-tablet use.
• Still, a high proportion of ‘ropo’ (research online, purchase
offline) with a strong value on personal advice
• Ageing population, still favouring active holidays
• Interesting fact: 43% of German travellers are interested in
doing walking & hiking during their holidays
Source: VisitBritain, 2015

17. UNITED KINGDOM
PERFORMANCE OF
KEY MARKETS

18. UNITED KINGDOM – Current situation
• Ranked 5th outbound market in the world
• Economy is in recovery and unemployment is falling
• Strong GBP makes the Eurozone more attractive for British
travellers .
• From 2015 pensioners (seniors) can access their pension
funds earlier, giving them more to spend. 34% take at least
two vacations per year.
• Youth market is becoming more diverse and adventurous

19. PERFORMANCE OF
KEY MARKETS
Source: ETC Trends & Prospects - Q2, 2015

20. UNITED KINGDOM – The British traveller
• Best to consider different UK regions as different markets;
London is a powerful outbound market
• With an ageing population with increased disposable
income, seniors are expected to travel a lot more; however
they value a smooth journey, clear information,
professional service and a rewarding experience.
• British Millennials (aged 18-35) are adventurous: UK is the
top selling market in Europe for Interrail passes
• ‘Last-minute leisure’ is booming, driven by smartphone
bookings: 59% of British travellers have booked and
travelled in the same week, 19% on the same day!
Source: LastMinute Sponeneity Report, 2014

21. FRANCE
PERFORMANCE OF
KEY MARKETS

22. FRANCE – Current situation
• Ranked 6th outbound market in the world with 25.4m
outbound trips in 2014.
• Similar population size and economy to the UK, but
domestic tourism is more important – government has
promoted this heavily during the crisis
• Economic growth is slow (1% expected in 2015), shows
characteristics of both Northern and Southern Europe
• Strongest growth in arrivals from France has been in
emerging destinations such as Lithuania, Iceland, Latvia,
Montenegro, Serbia

23. PERFORMANCE OF
KEY MARKETS
Source: ETC Trends & Prospects - Q2, 2015

24. FRANCE – The French traveller
• ‘ROPO’ is very common (71% researched online, 45%
booked all or part of their travel online).
• Packages are popular (54% of all trips booked in 2014), but
mostly flight + hotel, not all-inclusive.
• Domestic tourism highly important (68% of ‘main holidays’
taken in France in 2015)
• Traditionally take long vacations (longer than 13 nights),
however short breaks becoming more popular due to
increase in low cost airline operations in France
• Appreciates information and guidance in French language
Source: French National Statistics Office, 2015

25. BELGIUM AND
THE NETHERLANDS
PERFORMANCE OF
KEY MARKETS

26. BELGIUM & NETHERLANDS: Current situation
• Ranked as 12th (BE) and 16th (NL) outbound markets in the
world, though similar volume of outbound travel
• Both BE & NL have been through a recession, though
Belgium has been affected worst. NL is in recovery, with
moderate growth (less than 5%) expected to 2018.
• Netherlands outbound: 79% for leisure, 21% for business
• Belgium outbound: 51% of all travel is to Fr, Ger & NL
• Netherlands expects to see 23% growth in online bookings
in the next 5 years, as well as a general shift from car travel
to plane and train travel (especially influenced by senior
travellers)

27. PERFORMANCE OF
KEY MARKETS
Source: ETC Trends & Prospects - Q2, 2015

28. BELGIUM & NETHERLANDS: Traveller profiles
• Belgium outbound behaves more like French market,
Netherlands outbound behaves more like Nordic market
• In NL, over the next decade, age group 65-80 years will
make up 17% of the population, increasing the amount of
travellers with leisure time and disposable income.
• Dutch travellers are highly independent, preferring to book
accommodation only, then find their own food & activity
options. VisitBritain reports the Dutch market as the most
likely to want to ‘sleep somewhere unique’
• From Jan 2014 no licence needed to operate travel agency
in Belgium = greater shift to travel consultants

29. NORDIC MARKETS:
• DENMARK
• NORWAY
• SWEDEN
• FINLAND
PERFORMANCE OF
KEY MARKETS

30. NORDICS: Current situation
• Have come out of the global economic crisis relatively
unaffected and with low unemployment rates: average of
6.3% across all four nations, compared to EU av. 11.5%
• In 2014:
• Sweden 15.5 million outbound trips
• Denmark 9.8m
• Norway 9.3m
• (Finland tbc – smaller outbound market size overall)
• Relatively high wealth across all population segments
means frequent travel behaviour – highly adventurous
• High travel frequency for business in the region – potential
for MICE growth from Nordic markets

31. THE NORDICS: Traveller profiles
• Summer is the most popular time for city trips within the
Nordic region. Winter is for travelling long-haul and to
southern Europe
• Baby boomer generation highly important: 50+ years is
the largest population segment in Sweden (38%) and
Denmark (36%). Norway 39% of population is over 45
years.
• Adventurous and socially competitive: like travelling to
new destinations where their friends and neighbours
haven’t been.
• 60-70% of travel products booked online: highest category

32. GETTING SMART TO DESIGN
BETTER PRODUCTS:
We combine our knowledge of
existing market profiles
Plus....

33. MEGATRENDS THAT WILL SHAPE
EUROPEAN TOURISM TO 2025

34. THE SHARING ECONOMY
AND P2P EXCHANGE
MEGATRENDS THAT WILL SHAPE
EUROPEAN TOURISM TO 2025

35. WHAT IS THE SHARING
ECONOMY?
"An economic model based on
sharing underutilized assets
from spaces to skills to stuff for
monetary or non-monetary
benefit'‘
Rachel Botsman, Collaborative
Lab

36. Collaborative consumption is not
just a consumer trend
THE SHARING ECONOMY:
KEY DRIVERS FOR
GROWTH

37. ACCESS Vs
OWNERSHI
P
GUILT Vs
PURPOSE
THE SHARING ECONOMY:
KEY DRIVERS FOR
GROWTH

38. MILLENNIALS
LEAD THE
WAY
The fastest growing customer segment in the
hospitality industry, expected torepresent
50% of all
2025
THE SHARING ECONOMY:
KEY DRIVERS FOR
GROWTH

39. CHEAP & EFFICIENT WI-FI
CLOUD COMPUTING
ULTRA-PRECISE
GEO-LOCATION
CROUDSOURCING
INTERNET OF EVERYTHING
THE SHARING ECONOMY:
OTHER KEY DRIVERS FOR
GROWTH

40. SHAPING THE VISITOR
EXPERIENCE

41. IN SUMMARY - THE SHARING ECONOMY IS
HERE TO STAY
• Appropriate legislation is ESSENTIAL. It
affects neighbourhood life, land use,
taxation, safety of visitors and
employment legislation.
• All partners must be at the table
• Create a level (and bigger?) playing field
by giving tourists what they’re looking for,
while ensuring fair competition for all
• New challenges and opportunities for

42. MILLENNIALS:
THE NEXT GENERATION
OF TRAVELLERS
GOES MAINSTREAM
MEGATRENDS THAT WILL SHAPE
EUROPEAN TOURISM TO 2025

43. Defining ‘Millennials’

44. Millennials:
• The current young generation, aged 18-34
• Also known as Gen-Y, the ‘Me’ Generation
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Born during this period
Enters teenage years and becomes an
independent consumer, post the year
2000
Gen X &
Baby-
boomers
‘Gen Z’

45. Travellers
Consumers
Individuals
Thinking about Millennials:

46. How do
Millennials travel
differently?

47. 1. More connected than any
previous generation
This is the generation that grew up
with:
• ‘Internet everywhere’ (3G, Wi-Fi)
• E-Commerce
• Mobile devices
• Social media
• E-travel (reviews, metasearch, last
minute booking, group deals)
• The concept of ‘personal branding’
through travel

48. Connected at every stage of
their journey Dreaming
Planning
Booking
Travelling
Experiencing
Reflecting

49. 2. Social media rules
• For Millennials, social media is their
primary source of news, information,
inspiration and advice.
• Social media is used throughout Millennials’
journey: when dreaming, planning,
booking, experiencing, and reflecting.
• Where you travel says a lot about you, and
social media magnifies Millennials’
‘personal brand’

50. 3. Millennials to collect
experiences, rather than
‘things’
• Brought up with the Internet and 24-
hour news, this generation is more
globally aware and globally curious.
• With increasingly stressful lives in the
‘fast lane’, this generation welcomes
opportunities to slow down and re-
connect with loved-ones
• Happiness comes from collecting

51. 4. Millennials seek authenticity
• Millennials’ seek to satisfy their cultural
curiosity by meeting new people (easy,
thanks to location-based apps, such as
Foursquare and Tinder)
• When travelling they increasingly look to
connect with the local culture, attending
events and taking classes based on
language food, music, fashion and design.
• If they can make a positive impact on the
local society and economy, then even better

52. Your FREE guide to
destination marketing &
Millennials:
‘Putting Your Place on the
Millennial Map’
• Available at
Toposophy.com + here
• Practical advice on where
to start
• Develop attractive
products for Millennials

53. SMART CITIES MAKE
SMART DESTINATIONS
New technology in
destination management
MEGATRENDS THAT WILL SHAPE
EUROPEAN TOURISM TO 2025

54. SMART CITIES MAKE SMART DESTINATIONS
• The majority of the world’s population now
lives in cities
• In just 10 years there will be 37 mega-cities,
each with a population of over 10 million
people.
• 600 cities will be responsible for generating
65% of the world’s GDP
• The transformation towards a connected,
globalised economy and modern lifestyles
will make cities even more popular places to

55. SOURCE: techzine.alcatel-lucent.com:Challenges forstateand localgovernments
SMART CITIES MAKESMART
DESTINATIONS
• Growth willbringchallenges
• These challenges will have to be
managed and addressed
• A city that is attractive for its
residents will be attractive for
visitors

56. SMART CITIES MAKE SMART
DESTINATIONS
‘SMART’ means:
• Recognising that cities are
about people
• Creating spaces for people to
interact, relax and learn
• Using technology to solve real
problems in ways that are
small, practical and easy

57. SMART CITIZEN
SERVICES
DYNAMIC KIOSKS THAT
DISPLAY REAL-TIME
INFORMATION,
CONCERNING TRAFFIC,
WEATHER AND LOCAL
NEWS,
LIKE URBANFLOW IN
HELSINKI

58. SMART ENERGY
Solar-PoweredChargingStations

59. SMART CAN BE
SIMPLEDIY – Urban Furniture

60. SMART CITIES MAKE US
SMILERio Grande do Sul – Disconnect Now

61. THE NEW M.I.C.E INDUSTRY:
MIXING BUSINESS
WITH PLEASURE
MEGATRENDS THAT WILL SHAPE
EUROPEAN TOURISM TO 2025

63. BUSINESS + LEISURE =
‘BLEISURE’
• Millennials are the
generation used to
working remotely,
meeting people and
finding new experiences
• Millennials like to add
extra leisure days to
their business trip
• Business travel can be
lonely. Millennials want to

64. MAKING BUSINESS TRAVEL REWARDING
• For many people, business travel is an exciting
proposition, shared online. Make it fun!
• Business travel can be lonely – how can you
help business travellers to meet local people?
• Meeting rooms all look the same. How can you
give MICE visitors a uniquely Latvian
experience?
• How can you help them to spend more time
and explore further in Riga?

65. EXPLORING NEW PARTNERSHIPS
FOR 21st CENTURY
CITY TOURISM
MEGATRENDS THAT WILL SHAPE
EUROPEAN TOURISM TO 2025

66. TOURISM AND DESTINATION MANAGEMENT ARE
CHANGING:
• Governments expect tourism bureaux to do
more work with less money
• The role of a traditional DMO is changing –
fast!
• Being a successful DMO at the heart of a
successful destination will mean growing up

67. THE TYPE OF SERVICES THAT VISITORS NEED FROM
A TOURISM BOARD (DMO) IS CHANGING
• DMOs need to attract visitors in more imaginative
ways while managing the destination well to
ensure that it meets the marketing promise

68. WHAT ARE THE SOLUTIONS?
• DMOs will have to become more accountable to local
government
• They will be expected to play a role in promoting
local economic and community development, solving
problems such as youth unemployment and
supporting small businesses
• Encouraging greater citizen participation in tourism
management
• Becoming a ‘facilitator’ rather than a ‘manager’

69. MAJOR STUDY:
THE FUTURE OF CITY
MARKETING AND
MANAGEMENT IN EUROPE
Expected release: Spring
2016
+

70. NICE TO
MEET YOU
Acharnes, Athens, Greece | T. +30 210 8941610
F. +30 210 24 04405 | E. info@toposophy.com
pjordan@toposophy.com
+31 634581566