This document discusses how to thrive in disruptive times. It explains that disruption unbundles industries and evaporates the middle. However, this also creates opportunities for those who are small, nimble, and able to create their own platforms and connections. The document provides strategies for individuals, businesses, cities, and economies to not just survive disruption but thrive, such as developing soft skills like lifelong learning and collaboration. It emphasizes that the future is unpredictable and exponential, so new models are needed for work, education, and life.

1. How to Thrive in Dis
Gary A. Bolles
Co-founder, eParachute.com
Partner, Charrette LLC
ruptive Times

2. Understanding disruption
Unbundling and “the middle”
Uncovering opportunities
One person’s disruption is another’s opportunity
Identifying strategies
From survive to thrive
Our focus today

3. Understanding disruption
Unbundling and “the middle”
Uncovering opportunities
One person’s disruption is another’s opportunity
Identifying strategies
From survive to thrive
Our focus today
Your life
Your business
Your economy

4. Slacker at age 19
So who is this guy?

5. So who is this guy?
Slacker at age 19
First professional job at 27
6 tech magazines
Evolve Software - IPO
SoCap - impact investors &
entrepreneurs

6. Let’s talk about the future.

7. Let’s talk about the future.
“The future is
not what it
used to be.”
Attributed to baseball great Yogi Berra, but most
likely it was actually first put in writing by
Laura Riding and Robert Graves

8. Let’s talk about the future.
“The future is
not what it
used to be.”
Attributed to baseball great Yogi Berra, but most
likely it was actually first put in writing by
Laura Riding and Robert Graves
“We wanted
flying cars, and
got 140
characters.”
Peter Thiel, co-founder, PayPal

9. Everything we know about the future is worng.
1. “Looking back at eras of technology innovation in
the past allows us to accurately project forward.”
2. “The future is always just around the corner.”
3. “If we knew exactly what was going to happen
tomorrow, we’d make the right decisions today.”
Source: Terrafugia TF-X

10. Everything we know about the future is worng.
1. “Looking back at eras of technology innovation in
the past allows us to accurately project forward.”
2. “The future is always just around the corner.”
3. “If we knew exactly what was going to happen
tomorrow, we’d make the right decisions today.”
Source: Terrafugia TF-X
wrong

11. Everything we know about the future is worng.
1. “Looking back at eras of technology innovation in
the past allows us to accurately project forward.”
2. “The future is always just around the corner.”
3. “If we knew exactly what was going to happen
tomorrow, we’d make the right decisions today.”
Source: Terrafugia TF-X
wrong

12. We think change will simply be linear...

13. ...but it usually isn’t.

14. We’re living in exponential times.

15. We’re living in exponential times.

16. What’s an exponential step?
30 Linear Steps (1, 2, 3, 4, 5…) =

17. What’s an exponential step?
30 Linear Steps (1, 2, 3, 4, 5…) =
30 meters
30 Exponential Steps (1, 2, 4, 8, 16…) =

18. What’s an exponential step?
30 Linear Steps (1, 2, 3, 4, 5…) =
30 meters
30 Exponential Steps (1, 2, 4, 8, 16…) =
1 billion meters

19. We’re living in exponential times.

20. Everything we know about the future is worng.
1. “Looking back at eras of technology innovation in
the past allows us to accurately project forward.”
2. “The future is always just around the corner.”
3. “If we knew exactly what was going to happen
tomorrow, we’d make the right decisions today.”
Source: Terrafugia TF-X
wrong

21. “The future is already here -
it’s just not always evenly distributed.”
-William Gibson

25. Everything we know about the future is worng.
1. “Looking back at eras of technology innovation in
the past allows us to accurately project forward.”
2. “The future is always just around the corner.”
3. “If we knew exactly what was going to happen
tomorrow, we’d make the right decisions today.”
Source: Terrafugia TF-X
wrong

29. Technology+Globalization

30. How were entire industries disrupted by
technology+globalization?

31. How were entire industries disrupted by
technology+globalization?
They were unbundled.
?

35. Winning in the era of “hard power” =
Vertical integration.
Top-down hierarchies.
Command-and control management.
Market domination.
“Push” strategies.

39. Music
Magazines
Newspapers
Books
TV
Movies
Videos

40. How did the new leaders do it?

41. How did the new leaders do it?
They created platforms.

43. What’s a platform?

44. What’s a platform?
A set of Application Program Interfaces (APIs)
that allow other programs to send and receive
information & instructions.

45. What’s a platform?
A set of Application Program Interfaces (APIs)
that allow other programs to send and receive
information & instructions.
In other words… a place where others
can build their businesses.

48. What’s next?
Manufacturing
Financial Services
Legal Services
Higher Education
Healthcare

49. How does technology+globalization
affect these industries?

50. They evaporate the middle.

51. Technology+globalization....

52. ...evaporate the middle...

53. …leading to a fat-bottomed world.

55. The small & nimble can thrive.

56. The small & nimble can thrive.

57. What about the economy?

59. What about the economy?

60. What about work?

61. What about work?
And, will robots and software eat our jobs?

67. Education Work Leisure

68. The Three Boxes of Life
Education Work Leisure

70. Career

74. Career

76. We need new strategies.

77. We need to leverage strategies that
increase our “soft power.”

78. Disruption: Less traditional work.
Career

79. Disruption: Less traditional work.
Opportunity: A portfolio of work.
Career

80. Career
Strategy: “work change” as a skill.
Disruption: Less traditional work.
Opportunity: A portfolio of work.

81. Disruption: An increasingly unbundled world.
Opportunity: Create your own connections.

82. Disruption: An increasingly unbundled world.
Opportunity: Create your own connections.
Strategy: Grow your network.

83. Disruption: A rapidly-changing world.
Opportunity: Learning rapidly.

84. How well do you do it?

85. How much do you love it?
How well do you do
it?
!

86. How much do you love it?
How well do you do
it?
!
InterestCuriosity PassionStudy

87. How much do you love it?
How well do you do
it?
!

88. How much do you love it?
How well do you do
it?
!
X X

89. How much do you love it?
How well do you do
it?
!
X X

90. How much do you love it?
How well do you do
it?
!
X X
?

91. It’s also true for employers.

92. Performanc
e
Fit
Cultural
Fit
!

93. Performanc
e
Fit
Cultural
Fit
X X
?

94. Intuitive
Analytic
Repetitive Adaptive

95. Intuitive
Analytic
Repetitive Adaptive
● Top down
● Scale efficiency
● Process efficiency
● Excising creativity

96. The new arms race
Courtesy of Adafruit

98. Intuitive
Analytic
Repetitive Adaptive

99. Intuitive
Analytic
Repetitive Adaptive

100. Intuitive
Analytic
Repetitive Adaptive
● Top down
● Scale efficiency
● Process efficiency
● Excising creativity
● (No top or bottom)
● Scalable learning
● Design thinking
● Collaborative solutions

103. Carburetor Repair, Step 3
. Remove base screws by reaching under the
main housing. (Make sure the engine is cool!)
. Store the base screws in a safe place.
. Run a finger around the housing base to
determine if carburetor fluid has leaked.
Carburetor Repair, Step 3
. Remove base screws by reaching under the
main housing. (Make sure the engine is cool!)
. Store the base screws in a safe place.
. Run a finger around the housing base to
determine if carburetor fluid has leaked.

104. Disruption: The end of the three boxes.
Opportunity: A new model.
Education Work Leisure

105. Strategy: Become a life-long learner.
Disruption: The end of the three boxes.
Opportunity: A new model.

106. Our lives are bundles as well.

107. Our lives are bundles as well.

112. 1. Challenging things
continue to happen
2. Being passive makes
things worse.
3. Life doesn’t work out the
way we’d planned.
4. It’s harder and harder to
go it alone.
5. Putting things off makes

113. 1. Challenging things
continue to happen
2. Being passive makes
things worse.
3. Life doesn’t work out the
way we’d planned.
4. It’s harder and harder to
go it alone.
5. Putting things off makes
Resilient
Entrepreneurial
Adaptive
Collaborative
Hard-working

114. What should cities do?

115. Transform Education.Transform Education.

116. 1. Challenging things will
continue to happen
2. Being passive makes
things worse.
3. Life doesn’t work out the
way we’d planned.
4. It’s harder and harder to
go it alone.
5. Putting things off makes
Resilient
Entrepreneurial
Adaptive
Collaborative
Hard-working
What should cities do?

117. Scenario planning. Rapid-change
processes balanced with long-range.
City as a platform. APIs. Code for
Christchurch.
Commitment to a model of ongoing
change.
Connections between people &
between organizations - & cities.
Engaging citizens in developing
strategies for growth.
Resilient
Entrepreneurial
Adaptive
Collaborative
Hard-working
What should cities do?

118. Remember...
Industries unbundle.
Shift happens.
The middle evaporates.
AND
This creates new opportunity for the disruptors.
The small and nimble are well-positioned to win.
For you. For your business. For your city & economy.

119. Your opportunity:
Don’t just survive in disruptive times...

120. ...Thrive.

121. Further reading.
LinkedIn: gbolles
Email: gbolles@gmail.com
Medium: gbolles
Slideshare: gbolles
Unbundling Media, Unbundling Higher Education, Unbundling the
Middle Class, and insights from the Closing The Gap conference,
Unbundling Work (in process)
And, for a bonus, TEDxSanQuentin: Life Revealed