A talk given at the Oceanographers of the Future symposium in October, about using card methodologies in helping people create a range of different scenarios in order to better develop their future thinking capabilities.

1. Playing the hand
you’re dealt
Applying Card Mechanics
to Futures Practice
John V Willshire
Oceanographers of the Future
07.10.20

2. Making
Things
People
Want
Making
Things
People
Want

4. How
we work How
we think

5. Information is light, not liquid
It was an age of enlightenment He has the spark of ingenuityWhat lights you up inside?
We need some clarityShe's one of our brightest and best What has been brought to light?
It was a real lightbulb moment There's a wide spectrum of possibilitiesWe need to zoom in
She has a sparkling imaginationWhat does it look like in the cold light of day? The fog is lifting
They were desperately seeking illuminationA flash of inspiration struck her Is this in scope?
Let’s zoom outView the problem through a different lens There's a lack of transparency
We don't want to be in the dark on this oneFocus your attention This is a murky business
This seems a bit obscureWe need to face facts He has a different way of looking at the world What's the big picture?
We’ve got that market in our sights In retrospect, it wasn't such a good ideaDo you have a view on this? They produced the key insight
How can we shed light on this issue? Let's pause for reflection There's light at the end of the tunnel
His intentions are a little opaque It's in our peripheral vision Nobody could have known, in hindsight
It's now a bit clearer Work such as theirs will help to elucidate this matter What's the outlook?
Have we got a line of sight?This is pure speculation She seemingly had a natural gift of foresight
Let's shine a light on this How do we frame this? Have we had a recent forecast?
She brought a fresh perspective Can we see the best way forward now?What's our North Star to follow? From her new vantage point, all seemed clearer
He has a permanent reservoir of ideas We've got it all stored in the cloudWe're drowning in data
Let's start channelling these thoughtsWe've got a good pool of ideas We're at the mercy of the currents
How do we improve idea flow? How do we cascade this information? Let's have a brainstorm
Data is the new oil There's a firehose of data We're looking for the fountain of wisdom
The situation is quite fluid Our thinking is a bit stagnant What’s happening below the surface?
We're going against the tide It's a stream of consciousness He has a thirst for knowledge

6. Help people make things
from the most relevant
particles of information

7. Particles of information
Cards have been a key part of our
practice since we started in 2011.

8. Create, Connect, Reorder
“When the world gets more
challenging - scarce resources,
predators, parasites - you need
to innovate. And the quickest
path to innovation lies in
making novel connections.”
Where Good Ideas Come From
Steven Johnson

9. Deal
Shuffle
Order
Stack
Turn
Spread
Rearrange

10. COLLECTING

11. REIMAGINING

12. CREATING

13. https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=9dIQOrVhM5E
‘The Creative Quartet’ - Prof. John Wood
1
2
3 45 6
Practical and playful

15. many possible futures

16. ARUP, 2009

17. State Library NSW, / Neville Freeman Agency 2009

18. Near Future Lab, 2015

19. Near Future Lab, 2015
Changeist / Artefact Cards - 2020

21. 12,800 scenarios
32 20 20

22. TEAM MEMBERS:
(first + last names)
2. Describe the scenario
4. What is your strategic response? Why?
5. What are the three things must you do?
1. Which cards did you have?
3. How difficult is this
scenario for Experian?
(circle one number)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
No real
effect
Worst case
scenario
card no.
I
II
III
6. Name your idea:
Notes:

24. sitrep
(sit)uation (rep)ort
A report on a
current situation in a
particular area
futrep
(fut)ure (rep)ort
A report on a
potential situation in a
particular future scenario

25. The Future is Now - International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
https://media.ifrc.org/innovation/future-and-foresight/the-future-is-now/
Each future scenario is one view

26. What happens
when scenarios
collide?

27. exploration
Different categories of things
e.g. object, story, user, environment
synthesis
Combination of different things
Comparison of different things
analysis

28. Single card
Enough to
learn from
Single hand
Enough to
create from
Multiple hands
Enough to
evaluate from

29. “You’re in a desert…”
Illustration: Umineko Studio

30. Dstl / Smithery 2018

31. An operating system
A quick way to make connections
between unfamiliar things
A basic platform on which to test
different decision making processes

32. GST6 edition

33. Updated,
expanded deck
Using 16 focus areas from GST6

34. Three syndicates, each with three subgroups
2 31

35. 1. Each subgroup was dealt three cards

36. “build between”“build around”

37. 2. Deepen
1
Each sub-group
shares their
scenario with the
others, and
captures more
texture to add it
3. Disrupt
Discontinuity
cards…
How do these change
your scenario?

39. Where might it work?
Personnel training
Equipment training / testing
Security (everyday safety of information)
Context training
Communication
Decision analysis / reviews
Procurement
Scenario immersion / visualisation
Red teaming
Special circumstances
Categories suggest in session by Future Threat programme participants

40. The Goldilocks Hand?
Finding suitable terrain
for habitable futuring
through card games.
Or something.

41. Thank you
John V Willshire
john@smithery.com