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Playing The Hand You're Dealt

A talk given at the Oceanographers of the Future symposium in October, about using card methodologies in helping people create a range of different scenarios in order to better develop their future thinking capabilities.

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Playing The Hand You're Dealt

  1. Playing the hand you’re dealt Applying Card Mechanics to Futures Practice John V Willshire Oceanographers of the Future 07.10.20
  2. Making Things People Want Making Things People Want
  3. How we work How we think
  4. Information is light, not liquid It was an age of enlightenment He has the spark of ingenuityWhat lights you up inside? We need some clarityShe's one of our brightest and best What has been brought to light? It was a real lightbulb moment There's a wide spectrum of possibilitiesWe need to zoom in She has a sparkling imaginationWhat does it look like in the cold light of day? The fog is lifting They were desperately seeking illuminationA flash of inspiration struck her Is this in scope? Let’s zoom outView the problem through a different lens There's a lack of transparency We don't want to be in the dark on this oneFocus your attention This is a murky business This seems a bit obscureWe need to face facts He has a different way of looking at the world What's the big picture? We’ve got that market in our sights In retrospect, it wasn't such a good ideaDo you have a view on this? They produced the key insight How can we shed light on this issue? Let's pause for reflection There's light at the end of the tunnel His intentions are a little opaque It's in our peripheral vision Nobody could have known, in hindsight It's now a bit clearer Work such as theirs will help to elucidate this matter What's the outlook? Have we got a line of sight?This is pure speculation She seemingly had a natural gift of foresight Let's shine a light on this How do we frame this? Have we had a recent forecast? She brought a fresh perspective Can we see the best way forward now?What's our North Star to follow? From her new vantage point, all seemed clearer He has a permanent reservoir of ideas We've got it all stored in the cloudWe're drowning in data Let's start channelling these thoughtsWe've got a good pool of ideas We're at the mercy of the currents How do we improve idea flow? How do we cascade this information? Let's have a brainstorm Data is the new oil There's a firehose of data We're looking for the fountain of wisdom The situation is quite fluid Our thinking is a bit stagnant What’s happening below the surface? We're going against the tide It's a stream of consciousness He has a thirst for knowledge
  5. Help people make things from the most relevant particles of information
  6. Particles of information Cards have been a key part of our practice since we started in 2011.
  7. Create, Connect, Reorder “When the world gets more challenging - scarce resources, predators, parasites - you need to innovate. And the quickest path to innovation lies in making novel connections.” Where Good Ideas Come From Steven Johnson
  8. Deal Shuffle Order Stack Turn Spread Rearrange
  12. https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=9dIQOrVhM5E ‘The Creative Quartet’ - Prof. John Wood 1 2 3 45 6 Practical and playful
  13. many possible futures
  14. ARUP, 2009
  15. State Library NSW, / Neville Freeman Agency 2009
  16. Near Future Lab, 2015
  17. Near Future Lab, 2015 Changeist / Artefact Cards - 2020
  18. 12,800 scenarios 32 20 20
  19. TEAM MEMBERS: (first + last names) 2. Describe the scenario 4. What is your strategic response? Why? 5. What are the three things must you do? 1. Which cards did you have? 3. How difficult is this scenario for Experian? (circle one number) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 No real effect Worst case scenario card no. I II III 6. Name your idea: Notes:
  20. sitrep (sit)uation (rep)ort A report on a 
 current situation in a particular area futrep (fut)ure (rep)ort A report on a 
 potential situation in a particular future scenario
  21. The Future is Now - International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies https://media.ifrc.org/innovation/future-and-foresight/the-future-is-now/ Each future scenario is one view
  22. What happens when scenarios collide?
  23. exploration Different categories of things e.g. object, story, user, environment synthesis Combination of different things Comparison of different things analysis
  24. Single card Enough to learn from Single hand Enough to create from Multiple hands Enough to evaluate from
  25. “You’re in a desert…” Illustration: Umineko Studio
  26. Dstl / Smithery 2018
  27. An operating system A quick way to make connections between unfamiliar things A basic platform on which to test different decision making processes
  28. GST6 edition
  29. Updated, expanded deck Using 16 focus areas from GST6
  30. Three syndicates, each with three subgroups 2 31
  31. 1. Each subgroup was dealt three cards
  32. “build between”“build around”
  33. 2. Deepen 1 Each sub-group shares their scenario with the others, and captures more texture to add it 3. Disrupt Discontinuity cards… How do these change your scenario?
  34. Where might it work? Personnel training Equipment training / testing Security (everyday safety of information) Context training Communication Decision analysis / reviews Procurement Scenario immersion / visualisation Red teaming Special circumstances Categories suggest in session by Future Threat programme participants
  35. The Goldilocks Hand? Finding suitable terrain for habitable futuring through card games. Or something.
  36. Thank you John V Willshire john@smithery.com