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The future of healthcare - an emerging view 24 08 17

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The future of healthcare - an emerging view 24 08 17

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Insights shared at DTU in Copenhagen to kick off an Exec Education module on innovation in healthcare. Drawn from the Future of Health events in 2015, Future of Surgery in 2016 and the new Future of Patient Data project initial view, these combine multiple shifts for the next decade as seen around the world.

In the DTU event, the priority issues for the next decade were seen to be AI driving efficiency, the rise of machines, individualised medicine, the impact of data, changing business models, predictive analysis and conservative regulators.

Insights shared at DTU in Copenhagen to kick off an Exec Education module on innovation in healthcare. Drawn from the Future of Health events in 2015, Future of Surgery in 2016 and the new Future of Patient Data project initial view, these combine multiple shifts for the next decade as seen around the world.

In the DTU event, the priority issues for the next decade were seen to be AI driving efficiency, the rise of machines, individualised medicine, the impact of data, changing business models, predictive analysis and conservative regulators.

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The future of healthcare - an emerging view 24 08 17

  1. 1. The Future of Healthcare | An Emerging View Insights from Multiple Expert Discussions Around the World Dr. Tim Jones | Programme Director | 24 August 2017
  2. 2. Future Agenda The Future Agenda is the world’s largest open foresight program that accesses multiple views of the next decade so all can be better informed and stimulate innovation.
  3. 3. Looking Forwards Organisations increasingly want to identify and understand both the anticipated and unexpected changes so that they can be better prepared for the future.
  4. 4. The Future of Healthcare
  5. 5. Data’s Impact on Health Better use of data and technology has the power to improve health, transforming the quality and reducing the cost of health and care services. It can give patients more control over their health and empower carers.
  6. 6. Deeper Collaboration Partnerships shift to become more dynamic, long-term, democratised, multi-party collaborations. Competitor alliances and wider public participation drive regulators to create new frameworks for open, empathetic collaboration.
  7. 7. A Data Marketplace Data is a currency, it has a value and a price, and therefore requires a market place. Ecosystems for trading health data is emerging and anything that is information is represented in a new data marketplace.
  8. 8. The Rise of Machines The growth in the intelligence and capabilities of machines presents both a threat and an opportunity. Greater automation frees up time, but also has the potential to threaten more jobs in managerial or administrative roles.
  9. 9. Gene Editing Equipped with greater understanding of the individual’s genetic disposition and new intervention technologies, we can proactively edit genes and undertake minimally invasive surgery to reduce the need for major surgery in later years.
  10. 10. Individualized Medicine We are going to be leaving population medicine – where one size fits all – in favour of individualized medicine. Implicit in this is that the patients will increasingly drive their own care.
  11. 11. New Trust Relationship The adoption of many digital technologies within integrated health and care systems will require the development of a new trust relationship with the citizen.
  12. 12. Limiting Healthcare Access Several economies where universal access is the norm are looking at ways of limiting use. Options such as co-payment for all treatments or a maximum number of (non-emergency) visits per year are increasingly debated.
  13. 13. Cost of Cancer Drugs The average benefit from the 50 most recently approved cancer drugs in the UK is 3 weeks of extra life – at and average cost of around $70,000. In cost constrained systems, continuing such support is being questioned.
  14. 14. India Setting Global Standards India is demonstrating an innovative approach to healthcare challenges and has proven design solutions for low-income populations. These solutions will be applied to higher income economies with even greater efficiency benefits.
  15. 15. Personal Data Stores Patients will not only access their data, but also own it. The adoption of personal data stores lead to universally accepted credentials and share data with multiple partners so that patients can receive personalized services.
  16. 16. Decentralized Secure Data We need to decentralize health data because the more it’s amassed, the more likely it’s going to be hacked. Centralized ownership of medical records is increasingly seen as a security risk.
  17. 17. Internet of Me The combination of increasing computing power and digital health leads to the Internet of Me: Patients get information that is highly customized to who they are and treatments become more effective through greater personalization.
  18. 18. Human Touch As service provision and consumption becomes ever more digital, automated and algorithmic, those brands that can offer more emotional engagement and human-to-human contact become increasingly attractive.
  19. 19. System Change For many, implementing digital health technologies requires a whole system change. Such a transformation is more difficult to implement when an established healthcare system is in place.
  20. 20. Conservative Regulators As legislators and funders of healthcare tend to be risk averse, there is a regulatory desire for certainty with a continuous concern about unintended consequences of change. Regulators may therefore slow adoption.
  21. 21. Resistance from Healthcare Professionals Change from clinicians and professionals in health often have the least appetite for change – it is often viewed as a threat to roles and responsibilities. Dialogue around new innovations is key to overcoming resistance.
  22. 22. Creating Pull One of the most effective leavers to encouraging adoption of digital will be the ‘fear of missing out’ on gaining a competitive edge in cost and quality. Creating pull as well as push will be pivotal for wider patient data sharing.
  23. 23. Personalised Healthcare For the privileged few with access, personalised healthcare tailored around individual medical and pyscho-social needs provides therapies that are better aligned with specific rather than generic profiles.
  24. 24. Digital Autonomy Increasing access to more personal and group data allows individuals to take informed views on their health. As information is decoupled from the professions, the public become more specific about their needs.
  25. 25. Data Prioritisation An increasingly digital healthcare system is driven by access to credible data that is prioritised above the noise. The value of such key data increases as its ability to unlock opportunities and improve diagnosis rises.
  26. 26. Shifting Risk and Responsibility Business becomes more actively engaged in the wellbeing of its employees and society. Greater responsibility for health is incentivised by tax breaks and reimbursements designed to share risk, with lessons taken from elsewhere.
  27. 27. Sustainable Healthcare With limited resources, rising demand and escalating costs, decoupling healthcare spend from economic growth is a global challenge. A more sustainable, integrated model may emerge from beyond the US/EU. 0" 1000" 2000" 3000" 4000" 5000" 6000" 7000" 8000" 9000" 0" 5000" 10000" 15000" 20000" 25000" 30000" 35000" 40000" 45000" 50000" Healthcare)Spend)per)Capita)vs)GDP)Per)Capita) Australia" Brazil" China" France" Germany" India" Japan" South"Africa" UK" US" GDP Per Capita PPP (Constant 2005 USD) Healthcare Spend Per Capita PPP (Constant 2005 USD)
  28. 28. Incentives in Flux Budgetary pressures continue and reimbursement models will need to change. There is greater emphasis on paying healthcare providers based on measurable outcomes, rather than simply for the number of procedures they perform.
  29. 29. Collective Action to Control Chronic Disease To stem the runaway costs of treating chronic diseases, multiple stakeholders collectively seek to halt key conditions: Remote monitoring, educational programmes and focused budgets are all integrated around common aims.
  30. 30. Ambulatory Centres Small, local walk-in centres become popular for care and light interventions. They reduce major hospital demand and provide cost savings for the system while also helping patients avoid the ‘taboo’ of hospitalisation.
  31. 31. Surgeon as Supervisor More pervasive robotics, increased automation, augmented reality and artificial intelligence all combine to take over more expert surgical actions - leaving the surgeon to stand back and be available in case of an emergency.
  32. 32. The Changing Nature of Privacy As privacy is a public issue, more international frameworks seek to govern the Internet, protect the vulnerable and secure personal health data: The balance between protection, security, privacy and public good is increasingly political.
  33. 33. Universal Healthcare Data Access Information silos are connected via third parties able to unify, mine and discover new insights. Integrated public and private datasets provide holistic views of the individual and value shifts to decision-making analytics.
  34. 34. Generative Manufacture In-theatre printing of bio-materials brings multiple opportunities for the 3D building of biological tissue and bespoke organs. We create replacement parts that are made from our ‘own’ cells.
  35. 35. Simulated Learning Virtual reality, remote robotics, simulation and gamification all change how healthcare professionals and wider teams gain skills, become familiar with new approaches and help them to rehearse complex procedures in advance.
  36. 36. Challenging Models Increased access to personal health data will challenge existing healthcare models focused on stereotypical conditions. In the future several governments expect personalized diagnosis to be commonplace.
  37. 37. Genetic Profiling Key is the wider use and reduced cost of genetic profiling. With the growth of organizations providing hereditary genetic information commercially, more people can see future conditions early and so take preventative action.
  38. 38. Getting Closer to the Patient New digital technologies providing tailored advice mean that healthcare systems are designed more for the patient’s convenience, at home, and less around expensive, over-stretched facilities such as hospitals.
  39. 39. AI Driving Accuracy It will become common for patients to chat with artificial intelligence health advisers through messaging apps - As more people use these services, the more data is collected and therefore the more accurate diagnosis can be.
  40. 40. An Information Business Data and data exchange have emerged as the ‘new currency’ in health care, and will become a major force in redefining relationships, transforming the industry into an information-driven business.
  41. 41. Data Gaps In many instances, health data does not yet follow the patient, creating gaps in coverage and leading to fragmented, uncoordinated care that diminishes quality and drives up costs. In the future, these gaps will disappear.
  42. 42. Individual Custodians As more information is available to the individual, many people are able to make more informed decisions about their health because they can become custodians of their own health records.
  43. 43. Personal Data Sharing The sharing of personal health data with patients in established systems will give them greater control over their own wellness. Patients will increasingly need to trust in the sharing of their own data with others.
  44. 44. Combining Data Sets Picking the data worth sharing and matching it with the most appropriate platforms around specific issues, conditions, demographics or public vs. private healthcare systems is seen as the most pragmatic approach.
  45. 45. Predictive Analysis As we move to real-time synthesis of multiple data platforms we will gain improved accuracy and speed. Predictive analytics and genetic profiling together create more connected prediction and drive hyper-personalization
  46. 46. Public Concerns Public concerns around the unregulated of use of data are growing and, unless controlled successfully, as apps become more popular, fears around how personal data are stored used and shared will become more pointed.
  47. 47. Proprietary Data A significant challenge to progress in healthcare resides in the barriers and restrictions that derive from the treatment of medical care data as a proprietary commodity by the organizations involved.
  48. 48. Stewards and Security Despite the increased enthusiasm for patient data and the adoption of EHR, insufficient attention is being paid to security. With more prominent cyber- attacks, we will trust our data only to those with the highest levels of security.
  49. 49. A Public Good Broader use of healthcare data requires not only fostering data system reliability and interoperability but also addressing individual data ownership and the extent to which data should constitute a public good.
  50. 50. Public Benefit vs. Personal Risk In linking and sharing more data we will increasingly weigh public benefits against personal risk. The potential harm from unauthorised release of confidential data will be a conundrum for many in the healthcare sector.
  51. 51. Elective Prevention Equipped with greater understanding of the individual’s genetic disposition and new intervention technologies, we proactively edit genes and undertake minimally invasive surgery to reduce the need for major surgery in later years.
  52. 52. Greater Evidence Wider generation and sharing of data shifts the scale, type and accuracy of evidence used to make decisions. The best procedures become more visible and are better supported by payers and the wider health industry.
  53. 53. Wearable Data Ubiquitous wearables with embedded monitoring and diagnostics unlock inaccessible patient data. This enables real-time preventative healthcare solutions, greater personal responsibility and a realignment of insurance.
  54. 54. Small and Distributed Surgery With the democratisation and digitisation of personal health data, surgical support shifts to more local systems for earlier, minimal intervention. Providers correspondingly become smaller, de-centralised and more outcome focused.
  55. 55. Informed Consumers More informed and demanding patients become partners in their own healthcare. Equipped with a wealth of personal diagnostic and monitoring data, consumers challenge regulators and healthcare companies to improve.
  56. 56. Changing Business Models Driven by new approaches for emerging markets and vertical integration on pivotal issues, new business models emerge. Wider insurance in India, frugal innovation and more government focus on prevention act as change catalysts.
  57. 57. Future Agenda 84 Brook Street London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141 futureagenda.org The world’s leading open foresight program What do you think? Join In | Add your views into the mix www.futureagenda.org

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