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The	Future	of	Trade	|	The	Emerging	View		
	Insights	from	Mul0ple	Expert	Discussions	Around	the	World
Context	
Trade	is	one	of	the	key	themes	addressed	in	the	Future	Agenda	programme.		
In	recent	years	it	has	grown	in	influen...
Future	Agenda	
The	Future	Agenda	is	the	world’s	largest	open	foresight	program		
that	accesses	mul0ple	views	of	the	next	d...
Looking	Forwards	
Organisa0ons	increasingly	want	to	iden0fy	and	understand	
	both	the	an0cipated	and	unexpected	changes		
...
Future	Agenda	1.0	Top	Insights	for	2020	
From	the	2010	program,	52	key	insights	on	the	next	decade	were	shared	
widely	and...
Future	Agenda	in	Numbers	
The	first	Future	Agenda	programme	engaged	a	wide	range	of	views	in	
	25	countries.	Future	Agenda	...
Future	of	Trade	Discussions	
Discussions	on	the	future	of	trade	were	undertaken	in	partnership	with	the	
DMCC.	Insights	fr...
The	Future	of	Trade	|	The	Emerging	View		
This	document	provides	an	overview	of	what	we	heard	from	mul0ple	expert	
voices	...
Six	Key	Themes	
Across	the	mul0ple	discussions,	issues	related	to	trade	
seem	to	be	touching	upon	and	connec0ng	with	six	u...
SHIFTING	POWER	AND	INFLUENCE
A	New	Order	
We	are	witnessing	the	transi0on	to	a	new	order:	New	na0onal	interests,	
	new	trading	routes,	new	products	/	s...
Centre	of	Global	Economic	Power	
The	centre	of	gravity	of	economic	power	con0nues	shi^ing	eastwards,	back	to	
where	it	was...
Changes	in	Global	Leadership	
As	demographic	shi^s,	new	alliances	and	economic	challenges	re-align		
global	power	and	influ...
China	as	Asia’s	Voice		
Despite	growth	of	other	ASEAN	na0ons,	for	the	next	decade	China	remains		
the	clear	economic	leade...
Sleeping	Eagle	-	Waking	Dragon	
China	uses	economic	might	and	so^	diplomacy	to	reshape	the	world	order,	
usurp	the	dollar	...
The	Start	of	Change	for	the	Yuan	
Special	Drawing	Rights	(SDRs)	are	a	start	for	China’s	new	global	role	as		
they	effec0vel...
CiUes	Not	Countries	
Ci0es	are	more	important	than	countries	and	increasingly	set	the		
standards	as	cultural	connec0ons	p...
The	Role	of	Africa	
Led	by	a	growing	number	of	breakaway	countries	showing	economic	and	
poli0cal	progress,	the	next	1bn	c...
InternaUonal	Security	–	a	Public	/	Private	Partnership?	
Increasing	global	unrest	and	rising	interna0onal	fundamentalism	c...
STANDARDS	DRIVING	TRADE
Global	vs.	Bilateral	Agreements	
A	key	ques0on	for	the	next	decade	will	be	whether	we	will	be	able	to	achieve	
true	global...
Appropriate	RegulaUon	
More	appropriate	regula0on	drives	hot-spots	of	trade	growth	through		
special	economic	zones	and	fr...
Standards	ProtecUng	Interests	
Global	and	regional	standards	are	used	as	a	tool	of	trade	protec0onism	within	
specific	sect...
The	Fall	of	TradiUonal	Trade	InsUtuUons		
Civil	society	and	changing	business	norms	challenge	the	calcified,	outpaced	and	
...
New	Trade	Dialogue			
As	legacy	ins0tu0ons	become	irrelevant,	in	order	for	trade	to	flourish,	there		
is	a	need	for	new	for...
Automated	Trade	
BeFer	and	more	automa0on	is	coupled	with	the	growth	of	sensors	and		
other	M2M	mobile	technologies	to	mak...
Growth	of	Special	Economic	Zones	
Although	some	see	limits	to	their	applica0on,	going	forward	Special		
Economic	Zones	are...
FUNDING	FOR	TRADE
New	Trading	Routes	
The	next	decade	will	see	the	post-war	routes	eclipsed	by	the	power	of	the	
Indian	Ocean	region	with	ne...
Capital	Availability	
	To	overcome	con0nued	constraints	on	banks,	the	need	for	beFer		
SME	lending	sees	more	peer-to-peer	...
Cross-Border	Commerce	
	Cross-border	commerce	is	growing	faster	than	domes0c	commerce	and	so	will	
become	increasingly	imp...
Seamless	Ubiquitous	Payments		
The	ability	to	‘transact	anywhere’	with	integrated,	sophis0cated		
authen0ca0on	such	as	bio...
The	Funding	Challenge	
In	austere	financial	0mes	there	is	a	significant	challenge	for	
governments	being	able	to	fund	the	ma...
New	Infrastructure	Investment	
With	$4	trillion	of	foreign	reserves	in	its	sovereign	wealth	funds,	China		
has	plenty	of	c...
Wider	Public	Private	Partnerships	
In	regions	where	government	is	seen	as	an	inefficient	provider,	pressure	shi^s	
towards	m...
THE	IMPACT	OF	DIGITAL
Digital	Marketplaces	
Shared	business	models	and	digital	aggregators	improve	efficiency,		
eliminate	middle-men	and	drive	hi...
A	Data	Exchange	
Data	is	a	currency,	it	has	a	value	and	a	price,	and	therefore	requires	a		
market	place.	An	ecosystem	for...
Rising	Cyber	Security	
Greater	interconnec0vity	and	the	Internet	of	Things	creates	new		
vulnerabili0es	for	governments	an...
The	End	of	IP?	
Following	change	in	the	music	industry,	technologies	such	as		
3D	prin0ng	are	decoupling	the	produc0on	of	...
Consumer-Driven	Trade		
A	new	trade	order	leaves	behind	the	monolithic,	legacy	ins0tu0ons	of	the		
post-war	era:	Trade	is	...
ACCESS	TO	TALENT
The	Talent	Challenge	
As	the	global	workforce	becomes	more	mobile,	how	will	organisa0ons		
aFract	and	retain	top	talent	an...
Non-Linear	EducaUon	Paths	
Building	on	the	success	of	online,	open	courses,	there	will	be	a	rise	in	non-
linear	educa0on	p...
The	Hybrid	Experience	
Learning	increasingly	takes	place	via	a	combina0on	of	physical	spaces	and	
digital	classrooms	–	and...
InternaUonal	Measures	
Accessible,	affordable	tools	will	emerge	to	measure	interna0onal	student	
experience	abroad.	Univers...
Skill	ConcentraUons	
The	growth	of	the	nomadic	global	elite	ci0zenship	accelerates	the	
concentra0on	of	the	high-skill	/	h...
SYSTEM	EFFICIENCY
Automated	Trucks	
Autonomous	and	driverless	trucks	are	now	star0ng	to	have	impact.	The	vision	
of	long-distance	platoons	o...
Drone	Delivery	
For	small,	0me-cri0cal	deliveries	as	well	as	emergency	relief,	the	use		
of	drones	will	grow.	Regulatory	a...
Open	Supply	Webs		
The	shi^	from	centralised	produc0on	to	decentralised	manufacturing	drives	
many	to	take	a	‘smaller	and	...
New	Exchange	and	DistribuUon	Models			
Connected	consumers	co-create	new	forms	of	exchange	and	distribu0on,	
which	are	sen...
Last	Mile	Efficiency	
The	benefits	to	be	gained	from	bringing	the	same	level	of	efficiency	to	the		
last	mile	as	there	is	to	th...
Future	Agenda	
84	Brook	Street	
London	
W1K	5EH	
+44	203	0088	141	
futureagenda.org	
The	world’s	leading	open	foresight	pr...
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Future of Trade The Emerging View - 16 11 15

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After multiple discussions around the world, this is an emerging view on the future of trade being shared for further comment and feedback. Hosted by DMCC (The Dubai Government) this included workshops in London, Hong Kong, Cape Town, Mumbai and Dubai that have explored key drivers of change. Other events elsewhere have added in additional perspectives.

Veröffentlicht in: Wirtschaft & Finanzen
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Future of Trade The Emerging View - 16 11 15

  1. 1. The Future of Trade | The Emerging View Insights from Mul0ple Expert Discussions Around the World
  2. 2. Context Trade is one of the key themes addressed in the Future Agenda programme. In recent years it has grown in influence, recogni0on, focus and hence concern for a wide range of individuals, organisa0ons and governments.
  3. 3. Future Agenda The Future Agenda is the world’s largest open foresight program that accesses mul0ple views of the next decade so all can be beFer informed and s0mulate innova0on.
  4. 4. Looking Forwards Organisa0ons increasingly want to iden0fy and understand both the an0cipated and unexpected changes so that they can be beFer prepared for the future.
  5. 5. Future Agenda 1.0 Top Insights for 2020 From the 2010 program, 52 key insights on the next decade were shared widely and have been extensively used by organisa0ons around the world to support strategy development, innova0on and leadership thinking.
  6. 6. Future Agenda in Numbers The first Future Agenda programme engaged a wide range of views in 25 countries. Future Agenda 2.0 has doubled the face-to-face interac0on and significantly raised online sharing, debate and discussion. Future Agenda 1.0 1 HOST 16 TOPICS 25 COUNTRIES 50 WORKSHOPS 1500 ORGANISATIONS Future Agenda 2.0 50 HOSTS 25 TOPICS 40 COUNTRIES 120 WORKSHOPS 4500 ORGANISATIONS
  7. 7. Future of Trade Discussions Discussions on the future of trade were undertaken in partnership with the DMCC. Insights from events in the UK, Hong Kong, South Africa and India plus many from other topics have all added more views from around the world. Ini0al Perspec0ves Q4 2014 Global Discussions Q1/2/3 2015 Insight Synthesis Q4 2015 Sharing Output Q1 2016
  8. 8. The Future of Trade | The Emerging View This document provides an overview of what we heard from mul0ple expert voices around the world – on the future of trade, how it is changing, what is driving this change and how it may evolve over the next decade.
  9. 9. Six Key Themes Across the mul0ple discussions, issues related to trade seem to be touching upon and connec0ng with six underlying, and interwoven, themes with different emphasis in different countries. Shi^ing Power and Influence Impact of Digital Funding for Trade Standards Driving Trade Access to Talent System Efficiency
  10. 10. SHIFTING POWER AND INFLUENCE
  11. 11. A New Order We are witnessing the transi0on to a new order: New na0onal interests, new trading routes, new products / services are all emerging. How to ensure the development of trade in this environment will be key to success.
  12. 12. Centre of Global Economic Power The centre of gravity of economic power con0nues shi^ing eastwards, back to where it was 200 years ago. Recent superpowers seek to moderate the pace of change but the reali0es of popula0on and resource loca0ons are immoveable.
  13. 13. Changes in Global Leadership As demographic shi^s, new alliances and economic challenges re-align global power and influence, new leaders emerge and control in the world changes in favour of some - but with others s0ll holding the balance.
  14. 14. China as Asia’s Voice Despite growth of other ASEAN na0ons, for the next decade China remains the clear economic leader in the region – becoming more influen0al as the primary source of capital and the voice of Asia on the world stage.
  15. 15. Sleeping Eagle - Waking Dragon China uses economic might and so^ diplomacy to reshape the world order, usurp the dollar and dominate world trade. As a result migra0on to Asia increases, changing established market places. Africa will suffer as a result.
  16. 16. The Start of Change for the Yuan Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) are a start for China’s new global role as they effec0vely mean official recogni0on by the IMF that the Yuan is ac0ng as a reserve currency despite China’s extensive capital controls.
  17. 17. CiUes Not Countries Ci0es are more important than countries and increasingly set the standards as cultural connec0ons predominate over na0onal iden00es and urban markets group around common issues.
  18. 18. The Role of Africa Led by a growing number of breakaway countries showing economic and poli0cal progress, the next 1bn consumers in Africa join the global market. Barriers to trade are li^ed and infrastructure is improved.
  19. 19. InternaUonal Security – a Public / Private Partnership? Increasing global unrest and rising interna0onal fundamentalism challenge trade routes and places of produc0on. Corporates enhance government security to protect assets and maintain safe working environments.
  20. 20. STANDARDS DRIVING TRADE
  21. 21. Global vs. Bilateral Agreements A key ques0on for the next decade will be whether we will be able to achieve true global agreements, or will bilateral trade agreements remain the way by which na0ons can beFer manage and control economic influence?
  22. 22. Appropriate RegulaUon More appropriate regula0on drives hot-spots of trade growth through special economic zones and free-zones that result in the movement of business, people and wealth. Protec0onist regimes lose out as a result.
  23. 23. Standards ProtecUng Interests Global and regional standards are used as a tool of trade protec0onism within specific sectors and markets. Locally focused regula0ons and protocols favour mul0na0onals and incumbents but are barriers to new exporters.
  24. 24. The Fall of TradiUonal Trade InsUtuUons Civil society and changing business norms challenge the calcified, outpaced and increasingly irrelevant state, government and global ins0tu0ons. The digital, open source, IP sharing economy plays by different rules and agreements.
  25. 25. New Trade Dialogue As legacy ins0tu0ons become irrelevant, in order for trade to flourish, there is a need for new forms of social interac0on and ability to communicate across cultures. This emerges around new, high growth trading routes.
  26. 26. Automated Trade BeFer and more automa0on is coupled with the growth of sensors and other M2M mobile technologies to make more efficient connec0ons between items and customs agencies. Costs decline and speed increases.
  27. 27. Growth of Special Economic Zones Although some see limits to their applica0on, going forward Special Economic Zones are expected to play a con0nued major role in providing the facili0es for accelera0ng change and improving trade efficiency.
  28. 28. FUNDING FOR TRADE
  29. 29. New Trading Routes The next decade will see the post-war routes eclipsed by the power of the Indian Ocean region with new port construc0on plus proposed railways from coast-to-coast across South America showing the shape of things to come.
  30. 30. Capital Availability To overcome con0nued constraints on banks, the need for beFer SME lending sees more peer-to-peer ini0a0ves, smoother regula0on and more flexible access to capital – especially in emerging markets.
  31. 31. Cross-Border Commerce Cross-border commerce is growing faster than domes0c commerce and so will become increasingly important and influen0al. Cross-border flow of goods, services and finance could increase threefold to $85 trillion by 2025.
  32. 32. Seamless Ubiquitous Payments The ability to ‘transact anywhere’ with integrated, sophis0cated authen0ca0on such as biometrics increases: More contactless technology and a convergence of standards, enable global informa0on exchanges.
  33. 33. The Funding Challenge In austere financial 0mes there is a significant challenge for governments being able to fund the maintenance of the exis0ng transport system and investment in new infrastructure.
  34. 34. New Infrastructure Investment With $4 trillion of foreign reserves in its sovereign wealth funds, China has plenty of cash. The ‘One Road, One Belt’ ini0a0ve will re-open ancient commercial trade routes with the West and redefine trade routes
  35. 35. Wider Public Private Partnerships In regions where government is seen as an inefficient provider, pressure shi^s towards more public private partnerships. Across healthcare, educa0on and transport, approaches include NGOs, technology and new business models.
  36. 36. THE IMPACT OF DIGITAL
  37. 37. Digital Marketplaces Shared business models and digital aggregators improve efficiency, eliminate middle-men and drive higher incomes. India moves beyond labour arbitrage to be a provider of knowledge and professional services.
  38. 38. A Data Exchange Data is a currency, it has a value and a price, and therefore requires a market place. An ecosystem for trading data is emerging and anything that is informa0on is represented in a new data marketplace.
  39. 39. Rising Cyber Security Greater interconnec0vity and the Internet of Things creates new vulnerabili0es for governments and corpora0ons - as the unscrupulous and the criminal increasingly seek to exploit weakness and destroy systems.
  40. 40. The End of IP? Following change in the music industry, technologies such as 3D prin0ng are decoupling the produc0on of content from the original creator and, in doing so, IP is becoming irrelevant.
  41. 41. Consumer-Driven Trade A new trade order leaves behind the monolithic, legacy ins0tu0ons of the post-war era: Trade is empowered from the boFom-up, with conscious ci0zenship driving more nimble self-regula0on and a reduc0on of tariffs.
  42. 42. ACCESS TO TALENT
  43. 43. The Talent Challenge As the global workforce becomes more mobile, how will organisa0ons aFract and retain top talent and how will governments ensure they provide them with the relevant educa0on that will allow economies to thrive?
  44. 44. Non-Linear EducaUon Paths Building on the success of online, open courses, there will be a rise in non- linear educa0on paths. Success will be re-defined to include self-actualisa0on and micro-badging will gain credibility. Interna0onal benchmarks will emerge.
  45. 45. The Hybrid Experience Learning increasingly takes place via a combina0on of physical spaces and digital classrooms – and flows seamlessly across both. Students use different parts of their brain as educa0on becomes much more experien0al.
  46. 46. InternaUonal Measures Accessible, affordable tools will emerge to measure interna0onal student experience abroad. Universally accepted standards increase accountability of students and stakeholders and help grow the interna0onal educa0on market.
  47. 47. Skill ConcentraUons The growth of the nomadic global elite ci0zenship accelerates the concentra0on of the high-skill / high-reward opportuni0es within a select group of globally-connected ci0zens, who move ahead of the urban pack.
  48. 48. SYSTEM EFFICIENCY
  49. 49. Automated Trucks Autonomous and driverless trucks are now star0ng to have impact. The vision of long-distance platoons of trucks all running on intelligent highways without drivers has been a topic for some years... but the reality is not far away.
  50. 50. Drone Delivery For small, 0me-cri0cal deliveries as well as emergency relief, the use of drones will grow. Regulatory and environmental constraints will however impact short-term wider use at scale.
  51. 51. Open Supply Webs The shi^ from centralised produc0on to decentralised manufacturing drives many to take a ‘smaller and distributed’ approach: Global supply chains are replaced by more regional, consumer-orientated supply webs and networks.
  52. 52. New Exchange and DistribuUon Models Connected consumers co-create new forms of exchange and distribu0on, which are sensi0ve to cultural differences and o^en local in nature. This reduces waste and maintains the individuality and variety of products.
  53. 53. Last Mile Efficiency The benefits to be gained from bringing the same level of efficiency to the last mile as there is to the first thousand is aFrac0ng aFen0on: There will be more focus on reducing inefficiencies around the final part of delivery.
  54. 54. Future Agenda 84 Brook Street London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141 futureagenda.org The world’s leading open foresight program What do you think? Join In | Add your views into the mix www.futureagenda.org

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