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Future of healthcare 15 october 2019

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Further to several additional expert workshops this year, we are delighted to share an updated global perspective on the future of healthcare. Produced in partnership with Duke Corporate Education (http://www.dukece.com), this adds new insights on the pivotal shifts taking place across the sector plus viewpoints on some of the core implications for leadership. Topics include the growing power of data; the rising impact of urbanisation on health; increasing patient centricity; the need for more flexible organisations and the move of innovation activity eastwards.

Available as both a report and as this accompanying presentation this is now being used to inform and provoke further debate around the world. As ever we would like to thank all those who have given their time and insight to contribute to this project.

Veröffentlicht in: Gesundheitswesen
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Future of healthcare 15 october 2019

  1. 1. The Future of Healthcare Insights From Multiple Expert Discussions Around The World 15 October 2019
  2. 2. Major Change Underway Healthcare systems globally are undergoing major transformation Several common challenges are impacting supply, delivery and quality. Rise of diabetes and other chronic disease Inequity of access with rising rich/poor gap Increase demand for better care Ability to adapt to new technology Fragmented, inflexible health systems Unsustainable financing
  3. 3. Global Perspectives These insights on healthcare changes have been gained from multiple expert discussions around the world on the future of health, ageing and patient data.
  4. 4. 2030 Insights From our multiple discussions we have identified and validated a number of major insights on how, where and why healthcare will change most by 2030.
  5. 5. KEY GLOBAL TRENDS
  6. 6. Six Macro Trends Across healthcare systems globally there are six core drivers of change that can be seen as the high level macro trends for the next decade and beyond
  7. 7. 16 Future Shifts Aligned to the macro trends we see an additional 16 major shifts underway. In different regions these are set to have significant on the future of healthcare.
  8. 8. Trend Maturity Some trends are residual and been around for a while, others are dominant in discussions today while others are just emerging - but all will have high impact.
  9. 9. The Power of Data The exponential growth in health data will provide multiple benefits for diagnosis, integration and personalisation of care. As more and better patient data is shared, we gain multiple efficiencies.
  10. 10. AI and Unstructured Patient Data As deep, self and reinforced learning develop, the ability of AI to deal with unstructured data delivers major improvements in diagnosis and treatment. Agents learn by trial and error and AI is embedded into many clinical decisions.
  11. 11. Big Tech Health Led by Amazon, big tech will disrupt healthcare, reinvent some core elements and unify fragmented systems. All of the ‘big 5’ are investing heavily in major ‘special’ projects focused on the radical transformation of healthcare.
  12. 12. Health Data Marketplaces Embedded in the future of access to health data is its value, exchange and use for social and commercial purposes. Personal, clinical and system data will increasingly be represented in healthcare data marketplaces.
  13. 13. Urbanisation and Health With most of us living in cities, growing social and environmental pressures increasingly impact health. Growing challenges include rising obesity, limited physical activity and mounting risks from contagion.
  14. 14. Mental Health Urban migrants often face homelessness, unemployment and family break-up. With increased stress, low social cohesion and more crowding, mental health is a growing issue in many cities. AI may become part of the wider care portfolio.
  15. 15. The Impact of Climate Change With 2oC of global warming probable and 4oC possible, the impacts on public health are becoming apparent: Poor urban air quality, the migration and extension of tropical diseases and growing malnutrition are all underway.
  16. 16. The West vs. The Rest The Eastward shift in economic influence and innovation prowess changes the balance of power in health. Asia increasingly sets the standards and the prices forcing a change in many Western models.
  17. 17. Affordable Healthcare Only a third of the world population has access to basic healthcare services. Increasing spend and the introduction of universal care is a priority for many but gaining tangible benefit in the short term is a major challenge.
  18. 18. Rising US Costs In the US discussions on public healthcare spend are linked to taxation - so there is little incentive to change. Healthcare costs will continue to grow but the organisations that profit most will come under mounting scrutiny.
  19. 19. China Taking the Lead With 730m Internet users, China is the “Saudi Arabia of data” providing massive amounts of rich information for new algorithms. Centralised population data access and huge investment support it in becoming the leading centre for AI.
  20. 20. Asia Setting the Standards Significant new approaches for global healthcare will emerge from Asia. In India the scale of the Aadhaar platform is driving integration and innovation while elsewhere the deployment of micro-insurance is improving access.
  21. 21. Prevention and Wellness More advanced, personalised diagnostics align with growing societal and political pressure to drive the much called-for shift to proactive prevention in preference to expensive cure of disease.
  22. 22. Proactive Wellbeing Mass consumer engagement focused on making healthy choices easier is aligned around shared targets and more localised, integrated care models. Systems become more proactive, comprehensive and continuous.
  23. 23. Elective Prevention Equipped with greater understanding of individuals’ genetic predispositions and new intervention technologies, we proactively vaccinate and undertake minimally invasive surgery to reduce the need for major treatment in later years.
  24. 24. Increasing Patient Centricity There is a step-change in the volume, quality and ownership of a broadening portfolio of individuals’ health data. This enables a transformation of healthcare to become more personalised and effective.
  25. 25. Patient Autonomy Increasing access to more personal data allows empowered individuals to take more informed views. As health knowledge is decoupled from the professions, the public self-diagnose and are proactively specific about their needs.
  26. 26. Individualised Medicine The prospect of more individualised ‘n=1’ healthcare is accelerating. Predictive analytics and genetic profiling will transform medicine, but over the next decade the benefits are not for all - just a lucky few.
  27. 27. Trust and Transparency As the pressure to be trusted becomes a priority some will seek to address the problem by being more transparent. However, sharing more information with patients can be confusing and does not replace being trustworthy.
  28. 28. Flexible Organisations New forms of flatter, project-based, collaborative, virtual, informal organisations come to dominate key sectors including health – much is enabled by technology and an increasingly mobile workforce.
  29. 29. Workforce Automation Emerging technologies create new jobs but also render others redundant. Much of the automation across healthcare allows for greater patient focus and helps augment many roles, but other systems compete with humans.
  30. 30. Deeper Collaboration Major health challenges are addressed by global groups of diverse stakeholders built around increasingly non-financial incentives. Partnerships shifts to become more dynamic, agile, long-term and multi-party collaborations.
  31. 31. THREE SCENARIOS
  32. 32. Three Scenarios Despite the uncertainty across the future of healthcare, it is useful to develop and interrogate a number of scenarios around how things may play out over the next decade. We propose three scenarios to stimulate wider debate. C | Health Systems Become Increasingly Private With few immediate breakthroughs, public healthcare systems facing a funding crisis from growing, ageing populations take major steps to reduce levels of citizen cover and isolate and privatise risk. B | Prevention Takes Over from Sickcare The widely called for shift to a preventive approach to health and wellness is realised by an alignment of change in regulation, payer funding priorities and mass citizen engagement for behaviour change. A | Technology Saves the Day The promise from increasing digitisation, automation and integration of healthcare systems bears fruit. We gain from more joined-up health systems and so both improve efficiency and reduce costs. Future of Healthcare A B C
  33. 33. ISSUES FOR LEADERSHIP
  34. 34. Issues for Leadership – Technology Development The rise of technology continues to be transformative and nowhere more than in the healthcare sector. However, even here, the greatest issues facing leaders are not technological, operational or financial. What are the data driven disruptors facing leaders and organisations? How can we capitalise upon the new data in a thoughtful manner? How do we learn to understand emerging markets and their customers? How do we extrapolate the need to work with increasing agility? Do we understand how our employees and purchasers are changing? If we don’t understand them, how do we lead them and our organisations?
  35. 35. Issues for Leadership – Talent and Changing Markets People with the mindset, ability and resilience to thrive in the evolving global healthcare industry are at a premium. They need to be identified, developed, encouraged to shape the future and stimulated so that they fulfil their potential. What can we as leaders do to address the shifting focus Eastwards? How do we attract talent that understands working in an Asian market? How can we drive and lead innovation for the greater good? How can we capitalise on advances to create a workplace of the future? How can data be combined with empathy to address key issues? How can we use data to drive development of wellness and prevention?
  36. 36. Future Agenda, 84 Brook Street, London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141 www.futureagenda.org | www.futureagenda.net | @futureagenda

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