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Future Agenda - The world in 2025 - Opportunities for Lebanon - Beirut 03 06 15

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This is the opening keynote for a conference on Rethinking the Lebanese Economy for 2025 taking place in Beirut on 3 June 2016. Drawing on global and regional insights from last year's workshops it provides views on three topics:
How the world will have changed by 2025
Questions that are being asked of the Middle East
Some potential opportunities for Lebanon.

We are not experts in the Middle East nor economic growth so have leaned on and built on the views of those we have met and connected with during the Future Agenda programme. We hope that we have represented your perspectives accurately.

Veröffentlicht in: Wirtschaft & Finanzen
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Future Agenda - The world in 2025 - Opportunities for Lebanon - Beirut 03 06 15

  1. 1.         The  World  in  2025   Insights  from  Mul0ple  Expert  Discussions     Poten1al  Opportuni1es  for  Lebanon  |  3  June  2016   The  world’s  leading  open  foresight  program      
  2. 2.     This  Talk  Covers  Three  Topics     The  World  in  2025  -­‐  Insights  from  120  Discussions               Some  Global  Ques1ons  about  the  Middle  East               Poten1al  Opportuni1es  for  Lebanon          
  3. 3.     The  World  in  2025  |  Insights  from  Mul0ple  Expert  Discussions        
  4. 4.     Future  Agenda   The  Future  Agenda  is  the  world’s  largest  open  foresight  program     that  accesses  mul0ple  views  of  the  next  decade  so  we  can   all    be  beGer  informed  and  s0mulate  innova0on.  
  5. 5.     Looking  Forwards   Organisa0ons  increasingly  want  to  iden0fy  and  understand    both  the  an0cipated  and  unexpected  changes  so     that  they  can  be  beGer  prepared  for  the  future.  
  6. 6.     Future  Agenda  2.0  Topics   The  second  version  of  the  Future  Agenda  program  took  place     during  2015  and  has  been  addressing  24  topics  via  120  events  in    45  ci0es  in  35  countries  in  partnership  with  50  core  hosts.   Ci0es   Educa0on   Learning   Transport   Collabora0on   Energy   Loyalty   Travel   Company   Faith   Payments   Water   Connec0vity   Food   Privacy   Wealth   Currency   Government   Resources   Work   Ageing   Data   Health   Trade  
  7. 7.     Future  Agenda  in  Numbers   The  first  Future  Agenda  programme  engaged  a  wide  range  of  views  in    25  countries.  Future  Agenda  2.0  has  doubled  the  face-­‐to-­‐face  interac0on     and  significantly  raised  online  sharing,  debate  and  discussion.   Future  Agenda  1.0     1  HOST   16  TOPICS   25  COUNTRIES   50  WORKSHOPS   1500  ORGANISATIONS   Future  Agenda  2.0     50  HOSTS   24  TOPICS   35  COUNTRIES   120  WORKSHOPS   5000  ORGANISATIONS  
  8. 8.     Everything  Connected   Over  1  trillion  sensors  are  connected  to  mul0ple  networks:  everything  that  can     benefit  from  a  connec0on  has  one.  We  deliver  10,000x  more  data  100x  more   effec0vely  but  are  concerned  about  the  security  of  the  informa0on  that  flows.        
  9. 9.      Imbalanced  Popula1on  Growth    A  growing  popula0on  adds  another  billion  people  but  it  is  also  rapidly  ageing:     a  child  born  next  year  will  live  6  months  longer  than  one  born  today.  While     migra0on  helps  to  rebalance,  increasing  dependency  ra0os  challenge  many.        
  10. 10.     ShiUing  Power  and  Influence   The  centre  of  gravity  of  economic  power  con0nues  shi_ing  eastwards,  back  to     where  it  was  200  years  ago.  Recent  superpowers  seek  to  moderate  the  pace  of     change  but  the  reali0es  of  popula0on  and  resource  loca0ons  are  immoveable.      
  11. 11.     Affordable  Healthcare      The  escala0ng  cost  of  healthcare  is  further  stressed  by  the  need  to  support     the  old  and  the  chronically  ill.  Spending  20%  of  GDP  on  healthcare  is  seen  as   unsustainable  so  hard  decisions  are  taken  around  budgets  and  priori0es.      
  12. 12.     Air  Quality    Rising  air  pollu0on  in  many  ci0es  is  killing  people  and  becomes    a  visible  catalyst  for  changing  mind-­‐sets  and  policies  across     health,  energy,  transporta0on  and  urban  design.      
  13. 13.     Food  Waste    30-­‐50%  of  our  food  is  wasted  either  in  the  supply  chain  or  in  consump0on  and     could  feed  another  3  billion.  Op0mising  distribu0on  and  storage  in  developing   countries  and  enabling  beGer  consumer  informa0on  in  others  could  solve  this.      
  14. 14.     Intra  City  Collabora1on    Increasing  compe00on  between  ci0es  overrides  na0onal  boundaries  and  drives   change.  They  compete  to  aGract  the  best  but  also  collaborate  to  avoid  the     downside  of  success  –  over-­‐crowding,  under-­‐resourcing  and  pollu0on.      
  15. 15.     Urban  Obesity    Mass  urbanisa0on,  reduced  ac0vity  and  poor  diets  are  accelera0ng  the     rise  of  obesity.  Levels  of  obesity  in  most  ci0es  are  growing  fast  and  the     associated  healthcare  burden  will  soon  account  for  5%  of  global  GDP.      
  16. 16.     The  Value  of  Data   As  organisa0ons  try  to  retain  as  much  informa0on  about  their  customers  as     possible,  data  becomes  a  currency  with  a  value  and  a  price.  It  therefore   requires  a  marketplace  where  anything  that  is  informa0on  is  represented.      
  17. 17.     The  Changing  Nature  of  Privacy   As  privacy  is  a  public  issue,  more  interna0onal  frameworks  seek  to  govern  the   Internet,  protect  the  vulnerable  and  secure  personal  data:  The  balance  between   protec0on,  security,  privacy  and  public  good  is  increasingly  poli0cal.      
  18. 18.     Ethical  Machines   Automa0on  spreads  beyond  trading  and  managing  systemic  risk.     As  we  approach  technology  singularity,  autonomous  robots  and     smarter  algorithms  make  ethical  judgments  that  impact  life  or  death.        
  19. 19.     Access  to  Transport      The  widespread  need  for  individuals  to  travel  short  distances  becomes   a  key  feature  of  urban  design  and  regenera0on.  Planners  use  transport     infrastructure  to  influence  social  change  and  lower  carbon  living.      
  20. 20.     Capitalism  Challenge    Unable  to  shake  issues  like  inequality,  capitalist  socie0es  face  cries  for  change,   structural  challenges  and  technology  enabled  freedoms.  Together  these  re-­‐write     the  rules  and  propose  a  collabora0ve  landscape  of  all  working  together.      
  21. 21.     Educa1on  Revolu1on   Broader  access  to  improved  educa0on  acts  as  a  major  catalyst  for     empowerment,  sustained  economic  growth,  overcoming  inequality  and     reducing  conflict.  We  need  an  educa0on  system  fit  for  the  digital  revolu0on.      
  22. 22.     Mass  Engagement    As  the  public  voice  becomes  easier  to  access  and  harder  to  suppress,  leaders     seek  to  engage  to  create,  develop,  secure  and  maintain  legi0macy  for  their     ini0a0ves  and  policies  –  so  further  reducing  their  hierarchical  power.        
  23. 23.     Accelera1ng  Displacement   Climate  change,  conflict,  resource  shortages,  inequality  and  poli0cal  elites  unable  or   unwilling  to  bring  about  necessary  change  all  trigger  unprecedented  migra0on  to  the   North.  Over  the  next  50  years,  as  many  as  1  billion  people  could  be  on  the  move.      
  24. 24.     Basic  Sanita1on   Poor  sanita0on  con0nues  to  impact  public  health  and  restrict  social  progress,   par0cularly  for  women.  Governments  and  donor  organisa0ons  priori0se   measurement,  educa0on  and  innova0on  in  a  bid  to  drive  change.        
  25. 25.     Ci1zen-­‐Centric  Ci1es       Successful  ci0es  will  be  designed  around  the  needs  and  desires  of     increasingly  empowered  and  enabled  ci0zens  -­‐  who  are  expec0ng     personalized  services  from  the  organisa0ons  that  serve  them.        
  26. 26.     Flooded  Ci1es    The  vast  majority  of  our  ci0es  are  not  prepared  for  flooding.  Many  districts     and  households  can  no  longer  get  flood  insurance  and  are  in  jeopardy.     It’s  going  to  get  worse  before  it  gets  beGer.      
  27. 27.     Plas1c  Oceans    There  are  increasing  high  levels  of  man-­‐made  pollu0on     in  many  of  the  world’s  seas  and  liGle  actually  disappears.     By  2050  there  will  be  more  plas0c  than  fish  in  the  world’s  oceans.      
  28. 28.     Some1mes  Nomads     Elec0ve  migra0on,  cheap  travel,  interna0onal  knowledge  sharing  and     increasingly  transient  working  models  create  connected  nomads  who  mix   the  tradi0ons  of  home  with  the  values  and  customs  of  their  host  loca0on.      
  29. 29.     Working  Longer    People  are  having  to  work  for  longer  to  support  longer  re0rements.     Flexible  working  prac0ces  and  policies  are  emerging,  but  some     employers  con0nue  to  remain  ambivalent  about  older  workers.        
  30. 30.     Africa  Growth   With  a  land  mass  bigger  than  India,  China,  the  US  and  Europe  combined,  few     doubt  the  scale  of  the  African  con0nent  and  its  resources.  However,  un0l     recently,  only  some  have  seen  it  as  the  growth  market  that  it  is  fast  becoming.      
  31. 31.     Declining  Government  Influence    Na0onal  governments’  ability  to  lead  change  comes  under  greater  pressure     from  both  above  and  below  -­‐  mul0na0onal  organisa0ons  increasingly  set     the  rules  while  ci0zens  trust  and  support  local  and  network  based  ac0ons.        
  32. 32.     Eco-­‐Civilisa1on   Over  the  past  40  years  China  has  grown  apace,  mostly  without  concern  for     long-­‐term  environmental  impacts.  However,  now  faced  with  major     challenges,  a  bright  light  of  sustainable  development  is  emerging.          
  33. 33.     Digital  Money    Cash  con0nues  to  be  gradually  replaced  by  digital  money,  providing     consumers  with  more  convenience  and  choice  –  and  organisa0ons  with     lower  cost  transac0ons.  Wider  adop0on  enables  new  offers  to  proliferate.        
  34. 34.     Skills  Concentra1ons    The  need  to  build  and  develop  capabili0es  becomes  increasingly  challenging  for   companies  and  workers  alike.  Those  who  benefit  from  the  high-­‐skill  reward   opportuni0es  remain  a  select  group  who  move  ahead  of  the  urban  pack.      
  35. 35.     Speed  to  Scale     Greater  global  connec0vity,  growing  consumer  wealth  and  broader     reach  all  combine  to  accelerate  the  0me  to  1bn  customers  and  a     $10bn  valua0on  for  start-­‐ups  and  new  corporate  ventures  alike.        
  36. 36.     Some  Global  Ques1ons  about  the  Middle  East  
  37. 37.     Oil  Price  Dependency   The  link  of  GDP  to  oil  price  across  the  Middle  East  is  widely  recognised     and  so,  as  more  alterna0ve  energy  sources  come  on-­‐line,  the  impact  of  sustained    low  global  oil  prices  on  overall  economic  growth  is  a  common  ques0on.  
  38. 38.     US  Withdrawal   Especially  as  the  presiden0al  elec0on  draws  closer,  with  the  US  no  longer  an  energy   importer  some  are  seeing  a  future  where  it  is  also  no  longer  the  global  policeman:     The  US  withdraws  back  to  an  Atlan0c  /  Pacific  focus,  leaving  regional  vacuums  to  fill.      
  39. 39.     Turkey  As  Regional  Superpower   While  its  poli0cal  rela0onships  with  the  EU  and  Russia  are  in  flux,  Turkey’s  growing   economic  impact  is  widely  recognised.  Although  there  is  some  uncertainty  around   short  term  direc0on,  its  growing  popula0on  and  future  trading  influence  are  assumed.  
  40. 40.     Rising  Youth  Unemployment   With  unemployment  rates  over  50%  in  some  na0ons,  access  to  work  is  a  rising     barrier.  Especially  across  North  Africa,  the  Middle  East  and  southern  Europe,     a  lost  genera0on  of  100m  young  people  fails  to  gain  from  global  growth.      
  41. 41.     Lessons  from  Dubai   With  its  growing  interna0onal  business  reputa0on  and  significance  as  a     global  trade  centre,  many  are  asking  how  far  the  Dubai  model  can  be  replicated,     how  sustainable  it  is  …  or  whether  it  is  really  a  ‘one-­‐off’  for  the  region.      
  42. 42.     Poten1al  Opportuni1es  for  Lebanon      
  43. 43.     Financial  Services  Growth   Although  some  see  problems  with  a  legacy  of  red  tape,  bureaucracy  and  high  tariffs,   several  believe  that  Lebanon  can  grow  its  banking  sector  and  become  and  easier     place  to  do  business  in  an  increasingly  connected,  global  marketplace.      
  44. 44.     Regional  Centre  of  Learning   With  high  ranking  universi0es  in  the  mix,  many  view  that  Lebanon  can  build  on  its   exis0ng  recogni0on  to  be  the  21st  Century  centre  of  learning  for  the  Middle  East.     As  others  in  the  region  seek  to  progress,  Lebanon  has  history  and  ambi0on  to  hand.      
  45. 45.     Crea1ve  Economy    The  crea0ve  economy  helps  to  build  inclusive  and  sustainable  cultures.     What’s  more,  it  generates  wealth.  To  build  scale  it  requires  a  workforce     comfortable  with  collabora0on,  cri0cal  thinking  and  the  ability  to  take  a  risk.        
  46. 46.     Agriculture  Growth   With  the  highest  propor0on  of  cul0vable  land  per  capita  in  the  Arab  world,  but  many   people  in  food  poverty,  increasing  domes0c  and  export  sales  of  high  value  fruits,   vegetables  and  flowers  will  rely  on  improved  technology,  safety  and  cer0fica0on.      
  47. 47.     Female  Leadership   Women  in  richer  economies  have  greater  choice,  and  with  it  increased     control  and  influence.  This  con0nues  to  drive  change  and  decision-­‐making,     but  globally  the  baGle  for  female  equality  has  a  long  road  to  travel.      
  48. 48.     Mass  Medical  Tourism   With  a  good  healthcare  reputa0on  and  many  leading  Lebanese  surgeons,  some  see     a  growing  opportunity  for  medical  tourism  as  low-­‐cost  cardiac  surgery  and  broader   healthcare  provision  join  den0stry  and  cosme0c  surgery  to  have  global  impact.      
  49. 49.     Tourism  (Re)growth  (Eventually)   Lastly,  many  seem  to  be  hoping  that  tourism  can  once  again  play  a  major  role.   While  some  already  see  an  upturn  soon,  the  impact  of  the  Syrian  crisis,     as  well  as  recent  history,  challenge  expecta0ons  regionally  and  globally.      
  50. 50.     More  Informa1on  and  Insights   www.futureagenda.org     hGp://tmiltd.com/products/future-­‐agenda    hGp://www.slideshare.net/futureagenda2    
  51. 51.     Future  Agenda   84  Brook  Street   London   W1K  5EH   +44  203  0088  141   futureagenda.org   The  world’s  leading  open  foresight  program   What  do  you  think?   Join  In  |  Add  your  views  into  the  mix     www.futureagenda.org  

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