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 The	
  World	
  in	
  2025	
  |	
  The	
  Emerging	
  View	
  	
  
	
  Insights	
  from	
  Mul0ple	
  Expert	
  Discussio...
The	
  World	
  in	
  2025	
  |	
  The	
  Emerging	
  View	
  	
  
This	
  document	
  provides	
  a	
  summary	
  of	
  w...
Future	
  Agenda	
  
The	
  Future	
  Agenda	
  is	
  the	
  world’s	
  largest	
  open	
  foresight	
  program	
  	
  
th...
Looking	
  Forwards	
  
Organisa0ons	
  increasingly	
  want	
  to	
  iden0fy	
  and	
  understand	
  
	
  both	
  the	
  ...
Future	
  Agenda	
  1.0	
  Top	
  Insights	
  for	
  2020	
  
From	
  the	
  2010	
  program,	
  52	
  key	
  insights	
  ...
Future	
  Agenda	
  in	
  Numbers	
  
The	
  first	
  Future	
  Agenda	
  programme	
  engaged	
  a	
  wide	
  range	
  of	...
Future	
  Agenda	
  2.0	
  Topics	
  
The	
  second	
  version	
  of	
  the	
  Future	
  Agenda	
  program	
  is	
  taking...
Eight	
  Key	
  Themes	
  
Across	
  the	
  mul0ple	
  discussions,	
  75	
  emerging	
  issues	
  seem	
  to	
  be	
  tou...
Five	
  CertainOes	
  
Imbalanced	
  PopulaOon	
  Growth	
  
A	
  growing	
  popula0on	
  is	
  adding	
  another	
  billion	
  people	
  but	
  ...
Resource	
  Constraints	
  
Economic,	
  physical	
  and	
  poli0cal	
  shortages	
  of	
  key	
  resources	
  increase	
 ...
Everything	
  Connected	
  
By	
  2025	
  over	
  1	
  trillion	
  sensors	
  are	
  connected	
  to	
  mul0ple	
  network...
ShiVing	
  Power	
  and	
  Influence	
  
The	
  centre	
  of	
  gravity	
  of	
  economic	
  power	
  con0nues	
  shicing	
...
The	
  Human	
  Age	
  	
  
We	
  in	
  an	
  age	
  where	
  we	
  are	
  having	
  an	
  irrecoverable	
  long-­‐term	
 ...
Interconnected	
  Systems	
  
Air	
  Quality	
  
Rising	
  air	
  pollu0on	
  in	
  many	
  emerging	
  ci0es	
  is	
  killing	
  people	
  and	
  becom...
Autonomous	
  Transport	
  
The	
  shic	
  to	
  fully	
  autonomous	
  transport	
  is	
  an	
  evolu0on	
  via	
  truck	...
Connected	
  Systems	
  
As	
  the	
  land	
  /	
  food	
  /	
  energy	
  /	
  water	
  nexus	
  comes	
  to	
  the	
  for...
Energy	
  Storage	
  
We	
  will	
  see	
  substan0al	
  improvements	
  in	
  energy	
  storage	
  leading	
  to	
  accel...
Intra	
  City	
  CollaboraOon	
  
As	
  ci0es	
  con0nue	
  to	
  grow	
  in	
  their	
  importance	
  and	
  wider	
  infl...
Food	
  Waste	
  
The	
  30-­‐50%	
  of	
  food	
  wasted	
  either	
  in	
  the	
  supply	
  chain	
  or	
  in	
  consump...
Urban	
  Obesity	
  
Mass	
  urbanisa0on,	
  reduced	
  ac0vity	
  and	
  poor	
  diets	
  are	
  accelera0ng	
  the	
  ri...
Healthcare	
  Systemic	
  Shock	
  
The	
  escala0ng	
  cost	
  of	
  healthcare	
  in	
  some	
  countries	
  is	
  furth...
Deeper	
  CollaboraOon	
  
Partnerships	
  shic	
  to	
  become	
  more	
  dynamic,	
  agile,	
  long-­‐term,	
  democra0s...
Supply	
  Webs	
  
The	
  shic	
  from	
  centralised	
  produc0on	
  to	
  decentralised	
  manufacturing	
  drives	
  	
...
The	
  Data	
  RevoluOon	
  
The	
  Increasing	
  Value	
  of	
  Data	
  
As	
  organisa0ons	
  grab	
  more	
  data,	
  it	
  becomes	
  a	
  currency...
Data	
  Ownership	
  
Individuals	
  recognize	
  the	
  value	
  of	
  their	
  digital	
  shadows,	
  privacy	
  agents	...
The	
  Changing	
  Nature	
  of	
  Privacy	
  
More	
  interna0onal	
  frameworks	
  seek	
  to	
  govern	
  the	
  Intern...
ShiVing	
  Public	
  PercepOons	
  of	
  Privacy	
  
Privacy	
  becomes	
  a	
  mainstream	
  issue	
  with	
  ci0zens	
  ...
Managing	
  Data	
  Risk	
  
In	
  an	
  increasingly	
  connected	
  world,	
  risks	
  also	
  rise.	
  Protec0on	
  aga...
Privacy	
  for	
  OrganisaOons	
  
As	
  privacy	
  becomes	
  ever	
  more	
  present	
  in	
  the	
  corporate	
  risk	
...
Privacy	
  RegulaOon	
  
The	
  push	
  towards	
  global	
  standards,	
  protocols	
  and	
  greater	
  transparency	
  ...
Ethical	
  Machines	
  
Machines	
  are	
  as	
  smart	
  as	
  humans	
  as	
  automa0on	
  spreads	
  beyond	
  trading	...
Greater	
  Transparency	
  
Transparency	
  becomes	
  a	
  catalyst	
  for	
  change	
  and	
  a	
  baPleground	
  for	
 ...
Truth	
  and	
  Illusion	
  
As	
  authors	
  become	
  more	
  numerous,	
  the	
  nature	
  of	
  who	
  we	
  trust	
  ...
Enhanced	
  Performance	
  
The	
  widespread	
  adop0on	
  of	
  wearables,	
  implants	
  and	
  greater	
  connec0vity	...
Unequal	
  Access	
  
Inequality	
  of	
  Access	
  
Views	
  of	
  the	
  widening	
  gaps	
  between	
  the	
  ‘haves	
  and	
  have-­‐nots’	
...
Rising	
  Youth	
  Unemployment	
  
With	
  unemployment	
  rates	
  already	
  over	
  50%	
  in	
  some	
  na0ons,	
  ac...
Mass	
  Engagement	
  
As	
  the	
  public	
  voice	
  becomes	
  easier	
  to	
  access	
  and	
  harder	
  to	
  suppres...
Democracy	
  Challenge	
  
While	
  many	
  con0nue	
  to	
  defend	
  the	
  principles	
  and	
  benefits	
  of	
  democr...
Shrinking	
  Middle	
  
We	
  see	
  the	
  decline	
  of	
  middle-­‐men,	
  middle	
  classes	
  and	
  mid-­‐sized	
  c...
Buying	
  Out	
  
People	
  living	
  off-­‐grid,	
  increasingly	
  by	
  choice,	
  creates	
  greater	
  societal	
  div...
EducaOon	
  RevoluOon	
  
Networked	
  schools	
  and	
  learning	
  plaVorms	
  encourage	
  self-­‐organised	
  educa0on...
Caring	
  For	
  Those	
  LeV	
  Behind	
  
Although	
  significant	
  progress	
  has	
  been	
  made,	
  millions	
  of	
...
Transport	
  Access	
  
Transport	
  is	
  an	
  influencer	
  of	
  society	
  and	
  is	
  undergoing	
  a	
  transi0on	
...
Mental	
  Health	
  
The	
  visible	
  impact	
  and	
  cost	
  of	
  mental	
  health	
  drives	
  changes	
  in	
  socia...
Our	
  Habitat	
  
Housing	
  Everyone	
  
Mass	
  migra0on	
  and	
  localised	
  popula0on	
  explosions	
  drive	
  up	
  the	
  cost	
  o...
Unchartered	
  Waters	
  
The	
  issues	
  facing	
  oceans	
  have	
  led	
  to	
  the	
  establishment	
  of	
  a	
  UN	...
Infrastructure	
  Deficit	
  
Infrastructure	
  again	
  becomes	
  a	
  source	
  of	
  compe00ve	
  advantage.	
  Emergin...
Dispersed	
  Tribes	
  
Globalisa0on,	
  greater	
  connec0vity	
  and	
  ‘informa0on	
  at	
  your	
  finger0ps’	
  help	
...
CiOes	
  as	
  Products	
  
The	
  most	
  successful	
  ci0es	
  are	
  specifically	
  designed	
  around	
  the	
  desir...
Nature	
  Biodiversity	
  
The	
  global	
  biodiversity	
  decline	
  will	
  con0nue	
  unless	
  ac0ons	
  are	
  taken...
Simple	
  Tale	
  of	
  Country	
  Folk	
  
For	
  some,	
  increasing	
  urbanisa0on	
  leads	
  to	
  a	
  growing	
  no...
Basic	
  SanitaOon	
  
Despite	
  major	
  ini0a0ves,	
  basic	
  sanita0on	
  is	
  a	
  gap	
  for	
  many	
  na0ons	
  ...
Preparing	
  for	
  Resilience	
  
As	
  we	
  move	
  forward	
  wider	
  recogni0on	
  of	
  adapta0on	
  to	
  climate	...
AcceleraOng	
  Displacement	
  
A	
  faster	
  changing	
  climate	
  and	
  rapidly	
  increasing	
  inequali0es	
  of	
 ...
Beliefs	
  and	
  Belonging	
  
Working	
  Longer	
  
For	
  those	
  who	
  have	
  inadequate	
  re0rement	
  savings,	
  the	
  most	
  obvious	
  	
  ...
Agelessness	
  
Culture	
  catches	
  up	
  with	
  demographics	
  and	
  age-­‐based	
  limita0ons	
  fade.	
  New	
  
o...
Aging	
  in	
  Community	
  
Individuals,	
  families	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  healthcare	
  payers	
  desire	
  to	
  keep	...
Care	
  for	
  the	
  Aging	
  
As	
  the	
  popula0on	
  ages,	
  the	
  healthcare	
  sector	
  changes	
  the	
  way	
 ...
Human	
  Touch	
  
As	
  service	
  provision	
  and	
  consump0on	
  becomes	
  ever	
  more	
  digital,	
  automated	
  ...
The	
  Age	
  of	
  Women	
  
In	
  many	
  regions,	
  women	
  have	
  greater	
  control,	
  influence	
  and	
  increas...
Finding	
  Hope	
  
Despite	
  desperate	
  hardship	
  and	
  widespread	
  expecta0ons	
  of	
  social	
  and	
  environ...
Faith	
  and	
  IdenOty	
  
As	
  faith	
  evolves	
  to	
  encompass	
  greater	
  geographical	
  diversity,	
  new	
  s...
Power	
  and	
  Influence	
  
Influence	
  of	
  Government	
  
The	
  influence	
  of	
  na0onal	
  and	
  state	
  governments	
  recede	
  as	
  the	
 ...
Standards	
  ProtecOng	
  Trade	
  
Global	
  and	
  regional	
  standards	
  are	
  used	
  as	
  a	
  tool	
  of	
  trad...
Africa	
  Growth	
  
Despite	
  concerns	
  around	
  governance	
  and	
  corrup0on,	
  the	
  aPrac0on	
  of	
  rising	
...
Cyber	
  Terrorism	
  
Catastrophe-­‐driven	
  change	
  is	
  a	
  func0on	
  of	
  21st	
  century	
  living,	
  par0cul...
SOll	
  Being	
  Stupid	
  
Despite	
  a	
  bePer	
  understanding	
  of	
  the	
  long-­‐term	
  challenges	
  we	
  face...
New	
  Walled	
  Gardens	
  
While	
  Globalisa0on	
  has	
  enabled	
  many	
  to	
  explore	
  and	
  experience	
  diffe...
Rise	
  of	
  the	
  Cult	
  of	
  China	
  
As	
  China’s	
  economic	
  influence	
  on	
  the	
  world	
  increases	
  t...
Purpose	
  of	
  Companies	
  
Successful	
  organisa0ons	
  align	
  their	
  purpose	
  with	
  addressing	
  specific	
 ...
Out	
  of	
  Sight	
  
Criminals	
  and	
  non-­‐criminals	
  alike	
  are	
  moving	
  from	
  the	
  public	
  and	
  pe...
Changing	
  Business	
  
Global	
  Skill	
  ConcentraOons	
  
Localised	
  needs	
  for	
  specialist	
  skills	
  drive	
  greater	
  white-­‐coll...
Speed	
  to	
  Scale	
  
Greater	
  global	
  connec0vity,	
  growing	
  average	
  consumer	
  wealth,	
  broader	
  reac...
Full	
  Cost	
  
The	
  next	
  decade	
  will	
  see	
  an	
  increasing	
  requirement	
  for	
  business	
  to	
  pay	
...
The	
  Sharing	
  Economy	
  
Increasing	
  collabora0on	
  drives	
  companies	
  to	
  re-­‐organise	
  based	
  on	
  s...
Dynamic	
  Pricing	
  
Big	
  Data	
  and	
  predic0ve	
  analy0cs	
  help	
  to	
  set	
  pricing	
  at	
  a	
  more	
  g...
Standards	
  Driving	
  InnovaOon	
  
Across	
  key	
  areas	
  standards	
  increasingly	
  drive	
  innova0on.	
  From	
...
Digital	
  Money	
  
Cash	
  is	
  gradually	
  replaced	
  by	
  digital	
  money	
  providing	
  consumers	
  with	
  mo...
Currencies	
  of	
  Meaning	
  
New	
  trusted	
  currencies	
  of	
  exchange	
  and	
  meaning	
  emerge	
  to	
  bePer	...
OrganisaOon	
  3.0	
  
New	
  forms	
  of	
  flaPer,	
  project-­‐based,	
  collabora0ve,	
  virtual,	
  informal	
  	
  
o...
Last	
  Mile	
  Delivery	
  	
  
Seamless,	
  integrated	
  and	
  shared	
  last-­‐mile	
  delivery	
  replaces	
  ineffici...
Curators	
  and	
  Coaches	
  
Smarter	
  mobile	
  technology	
  and	
  increasing	
  automa0on	
  redefine	
  professiona...
Some	
  QuesOons	
  
Some	
  QuesOons	
  
We	
  have	
  curated	
  these	
  86	
  drac	
  issues	
  out	
  of	
  over	
  750	
  insights	
  gai...
Future	
  Agenda	
  
84	
  Brook	
  Street	
  
London	
  
W1K	
  5EH	
  
+44	
  203	
  0088	
  141	
  
futureagenda.org	
 ...
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Future agenda 2.0 The World in 2025 - Emerging View 07 12 15

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What are the big shifts for the next decade? The future agenda programme is the world's largest open foresight project and during 2015 has connected with 5000 experts to look for answers. 120 workshops in 35 countries have explored 25 different topics. This is the draft summary of the synthesis of these discussions the full version of which will be shared in the new year on our new website www.futureagenda.org Covering everything from energy and cities to data and loyalty, many of these issues cut across multiple sectors and regions. Designed to share, inform and stimulate debate, the futureagenda platform provides the opportunity for all to see and build on what others see as important drivers of change for the decade @futureagenda

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Future agenda 2.0 The World in 2025 - Emerging View 07 12 15

  1. 1.  The  World  in  2025  |  The  Emerging  View      Insights  from  Mul0ple  Expert  Discussions  Around  the  World    UPDATED  DRAFT  SUMMARY  AHEAD  OF  PUBLICATION  
  2. 2. The  World  in  2025  |  The  Emerging  View     This  document  provides  a  summary  of  what  we  heard  from  mul0ple  expert   voices  around  the  world  –  on  how  it  is  changing,  what  is  driving  this  change,   where  will  be  the  impacts  and  why  these  may  evolve  over  the  next  decade.  
  3. 3. Future  Agenda   The  Future  Agenda  is  the  world’s  largest  open  foresight  program     that  accesses  mul0ple  views  of  the  next  decade     so  all  can  be  bePer  informed  and  s0mulate  innova0on.  
  4. 4. Looking  Forwards   Organisa0ons  increasingly  want  to  iden0fy  and  understand    both  the  an0cipated  and  unexpected  changes     so  that  they  can  be  bePer  prepared  for  the  future.  
  5. 5. Future  Agenda  1.0  Top  Insights  for  2020   From  the  2010  program,  52  key  insights  on  the  next  decade  were  shared   widely  and  have  been  extensively  used  by  organisa0ons  around  the  world.     And  Future  Agenda  became  the  world’s  largest  open  foresight  plaVorm.  
  6. 6. Future  Agenda  in  Numbers   The  first  Future  Agenda  programme  engaged  a  wide  range  of  views  in  45  ci0es    across  35  countries.  Future  Agenda  2.0  has  doubled  the  face-­‐to-­‐face   interac0on  and  significantly  raised  online  sharing,  debate  and  discussion.   Future  Agenda  1.0     1  HOST   16  TOPICS   25  COUNTRIES   50  WORKSHOPS   1500  ORGANISATIONS   Future  Agenda  2.0     50  HOSTS   25  TOPICS   35  COUNTRIES   120  WORKSHOPS   5000  ORGANISATIONS  
  7. 7. Future  Agenda  2.0  Topics   The  second  version  of  the  Future  Agenda  program  is  taking  place     during  2015  and  has  been  addressing  20+  topics  via  120  events  in    45  ci0es  in  35  countries  in  partnership  with  50  core  hosts.   Ageing   CiOes   Company   ConnecOvity   Data   EducaOon   Energy   Food   Government   Health   Learning   Loyalty   Payments   Privacy   Resources   Transport   Travel   Water   Wealth   Work  
  8. 8. Eight  Key  Themes   Across  the  mul0ple  discussions,  75  emerging  issues  seem  to  be  touching     upon  and  connec0ng  with  eight  underlying,  and  interwoven,  themes  with   different  emphasis  in  different  countries.  These  are  detailed  below.   The  Five   CertainOes   Interconnected   Systems   The  Data   RevoluOon   Unequal     Access   Our     Habitat   Beliefs  and   Belonging     Power  and   Influence   Changing   Business  
  9. 9. Five  CertainOes  
  10. 10. Imbalanced  PopulaOon  Growth   A  growing  popula0on  is  adding  another  billion  people  but  it  is  also  rapidly  ageing:    A  child  born  next  year  will  live  6  months  longer  than  one  born  today.  While  migra0on   helps  to  rebalance  some  socie0es,  increasing  dependency  ra0os  challenge  all.    
  11. 11. Resource  Constraints   Economic,  physical  and  poli0cal  shortages  of  key  resources  increase  and  drive   increasing  tension  between  and  within  countries.  As  we  exceed  the  Earth’s  natural   thresholds,  waste  is  seen  as  a  resource  and  we  start  to  properly  value  it.    
  12. 12. Everything  Connected   By  2025  over  1  trillion  sensors  are  connected  to  mul0ple  networks:  Everything  that   can  benefit  from  a  connec0on  will  have  one.  We  deliver  10,000x  more  data  100x     more  effec0vely  but  need  to  make  sense  of  the  informa0on  that  flows.    
  13. 13. ShiVing  Power  and  Influence   The  centre  of  gravity  of  economic  power  con0nues  shicing  eastwards,  back  to     where  it  was  200  years  ago.  Recent  superpowers  seek  to  moderate  the  pace  of     change  but  the  reali0es  of  popula0on  and  resource  loca0ons  are  immoveable.    
  14. 14. The  Human  Age     We  in  an  age  where  we  are  having  an  irrecoverable  long-­‐term  impact  on  the  planet.   The  Anthroprocene  is  the  era  when  many  geologically  significant  condi0ons  and   processes  are  profoundly  altered  by  human  ac0vi0es  –  and  it  is  underway.    
  15. 15. Interconnected  Systems  
  16. 16. Air  Quality   Rising  air  pollu0on  in  many  emerging  ci0es  is  killing  people  and  becomes     the  visible  catalyst  for  changing  mind-­‐sets.  It  drives  public  support  for  new     policies  across  health,  energy,  transporta0on  and  urban  design.    
  17. 17. Autonomous  Transport   The  shic  to  fully  autonomous  transport  is  an  evolu0on  via  truck  platoons  on     highways  and  small  electric  urban  delivery  pods.  Connected  cars  create  the  network   and  test  the  technologies  for  the  eventual  revolu0onary  driverless  experience.    
  18. 18. Connected  Systems   As  the  land  /  food  /  energy  /  water  nexus  comes  to  the  fore,  the  interconnec0ons     of  mul0ple  supply  and  demand  drivers  of  change  are  more  evident.  Water  and     food  security  join  energy  security  as  a  key  concern  for  major  urban  areas.    
  19. 19. Energy  Storage   We  will  see  substan0al  improvements  in  energy  storage  leading  to  accelerated     growth  in  renewable  energy,  especially  solar  power,  with  the  adop0on  of  smart     grids  and  micro-­‐grids  enabling  the  long-­‐term  transforma0on  of  the  energy  system.    
  20. 20. Intra  City  CollaboraOon   As  ci0es  con0nue  to  grow  in  their  importance  and  wider  influence,  they  take  the     lead  on  integrated  innova0ons  and  new  developments  to  differen0ate  themselves     and  sustain  their  ability  to  aPract  residents,  visitors  and  commerce.    
  21. 21. Food  Waste   The  30-­‐50%  of  food  wasted  either  in  the  supply  chain  or  in  consump0on  could  feed   another  3  billion  every  day.  Focus  is  on  using  data  to  op0mise  distribu0on  and     storage  in  developing  countries  and  enabling  bePer  consumer  informa0on  in  others.    
  22. 22. Urban  Obesity   Mass  urbanisa0on,  reduced  ac0vity  and  poor  diets  are  accelera0ng  the  rise  of  obesity.   As  half  the  global  popula0on  is  overweight,  levels  of  obesity  in  most  ci0es  are  growing   fast  and  the  associated  healthcare  burden  will  soon  account  for  5%  of  global  GDP.    
  23. 23. Healthcare  Systemic  Shock   The  escala0ng  cost  of  healthcare  in  some  countries  is  further  stressed  by  suppor0ng   aging  and  obesity.  Spending  20%  of  GDP  on  healthcare  is  seen  as  unsustainable     so  hard  decisions  are  taken  around  personal  budgets  and  societal  priori0es.    
  24. 24. Deeper  CollaboraOon   Partnerships  shic  to  become  more  dynamic,  agile,  long-­‐term,  democra0sed  and     mul0-­‐party  collabora0ons.  Compe0tor  alliances  and  wider  public  par0cipa0on  drive   regulators  to  create  new  legal  frameworks  for  open,  empathe0c  collabora0on.      
  25. 25. Supply  Webs   The  shic  from  centralised  produc0on  to  decentralised  manufacturing  drives     many  to  take  the  ‘smaller  and  distributed’  approach:  Global  supply  chains  are   replaced  by  more  regional,  consumer-­‐orientated  supply  webs  and  networks.    
  26. 26. The  Data  RevoluOon  
  27. 27. The  Increasing  Value  of  Data   As  organisa0ons  grab  more  data,  it  becomes  a  currency  with  a  value  and  a  price:     It  therefore  requires  marketplaces  –  transparent  ecosystems  for  trading  data    -­‐  so  anything  that  is  informa0on  is  represented  in  data  marketplaces.      
  28. 28. Data  Ownership   Individuals  recognize  the  value  of  their  digital  shadows,  privacy  agents  and  data   brokers  curate  clients’  data  sets  while  personal  data  stores  give  us  transparent  control   of  our  informa0on:  We  retain  more  ownership  of  our  data  and  opt  to  share  it.    
  29. 29. The  Changing  Nature  of  Privacy   More  interna0onal  frameworks  seek  to  govern  the  Internet,  protect  the  vulnerable   and  secure  personal  data:  The  balance  between  government  protec0on,  security,   personal  privacy  and  public  good  is  an  increasingly  poli0cal  issue.      
  30. 30. ShiVing  Public  PercepOons  of  Privacy   Privacy  becomes  a  mainstream  issue  with  ci0zens  more  aware  of  how  their     data  is  being  used.  What  is  private  and  what  is  public  blurs  but  many  seek     to  have  greater  influence  over  how  their  data  is  collected  and  used.    
  31. 31. Managing  Data  Risk   In  an  increasingly  connected  world,  risks  also  rise.  Protec0on  against  hacking,     cyber-­‐aPacks,  fraud  and  counterfei0ng  all  drive  greater  security,  data  management     and  regula0on  -­‐  but  this  is  balanced  by  the  pull  of  convenience  and  data  sharing.      
  32. 32. Privacy  for  OrganisaOons   As  privacy  becomes  ever  more  present  in  the  corporate  risk  profile,  trust     is  ever  more  easily  lost.  Being  proac0ve  in  dialogue  with  both  regulators     and  the  public  becomes  a  priority  for  many  leading  organisa0ons.    
  33. 33. Privacy  RegulaOon   The  push  towards  global  standards,  protocols  and  greater  transparency     is  a  focus  for  many  na0ons,  but  others  choose  to  opt-­‐out  of     interna0onal  agreements  and  go  their  own  way.      
  34. 34. Ethical  Machines   Machines  are  as  smart  as  humans  as  automa0on  spreads  beyond  trading  and  drones   to  driverless  cars  and  managing  systemic  risk.  As  we  approach  technology  singularity,   autonomous  robots  and  algorithms  make  ethical  judgments  that  impact  life  or  death.    
  35. 35. Greater  Transparency   Transparency  becomes  a  catalyst  for  change  and  a  baPleground  for  reputa0on   enhancement.  Societal  and  consumers’  expecta0ons  of  more  open  visibility  of   corporate  and  government  ac0vi0es  start  to  balance  informa0on  asymmetry.      
  36. 36. Truth  and  Illusion   As  authors  become  more  numerous,  the  nature  of  who  we  trust  and  why  con0nues     to  evolve.  Credible  sources  are  prized  and  help  us  to  priori0se  true  insight  above   informa0on  overload.  We  increasingly  seek  to  clarify  veracity.        
  37. 37. Enhanced  Performance   The  widespread  adop0on  of  wearables,  implants  and  greater  connec0vity  to     ever  more  data,  enables  some  of  us  to  gain  advantage  over  others  by     improving  our  performance  beyond  our  natural,  gene0c  capability.    
  38. 38. Unequal  Access  
  39. 39. Inequality  of  Access   Views  of  the  widening  gaps  between  the  ‘haves  and  have-­‐nots’  extend  beyond  wealth   inequality  to  cover  access  to  water,  healthcare,  educa0on  and  digital  connec0vity.     We  increasingly  see  access  inequality  as  a  common  social  challenge.    
  40. 40. Rising  Youth  Unemployment   With  unemployment  rates  already  over  50%  in  some  na0ons,  access  to  work  is  a  rising   barrier  to  many.  Especially  across  North  Africa,  the  Middle  East  and  southern  Europe,   a  lost  genera0on  of  100m  fails  to  connect  with  and  gain  from  global  growth.    
  41. 41. Mass  Engagement   As  the  public  voice  becomes  easier  to  access  and  harder  to  suppress,  leaders     need  to  engage  to  create,  develop,  secure  and  maintain  legi0macy  for  their     ini0a0ves  and  policies  –  so  further  reducing  their  hierarchical  power.    
  42. 42. Democracy  Challenge   While  many  con0nue  to  defend  the  principles  and  benefits  of  democracy,  some     see  increasing  signs  of  challenge  to  it  as  it  fails  to  address  some  of  the  major   challenges  facing  the  world.  Alterna0ves  are  more  ac0vely  explored.    
  43. 43. Shrinking  Middle   We  see  the  decline  of  middle-­‐men,  middle  classes  and  mid-­‐sized  companies     as  value  chains  reform,  personalisa0on  rises  and  assets  are  shared  while     smaller  networked  organisa0ons  achieve  greater  reach  and  agility.    
  44. 44. Buying  Out   People  living  off-­‐grid,  increasingly  by  choice,  creates  greater  societal  division     and  strain  as  well  as  new  commercial  opportuni0es.  Independence  from     government  and  energy  networks  and  the  rise  of  new  tribes  fuel  this  shic.    
  45. 45. EducaOon  RevoluOon   Networked  schools  and  learning  plaVorms  encourage  self-­‐organised  educa0on     for  all.  Teachers  provide  prompts,  not  answers,  and  help  students  learn  from     one  another.  Non-­‐linear  high  content  learning  becomes  the  global  norm.      
  46. 46. Caring  For  Those  LeV  Behind   Although  significant  progress  has  been  made,  millions  of  people  con0nue  to  be  lec   behind  from  mainsteam  progress  -­‐  especially  the  poorest  and  those  disadvantaged   because  of  their  sex,  age,  disability,  ethnicity  or  geographic  loca0on.    
  47. 47. Transport  Access   Transport  is  an  influencer  of  society  and  is  undergoing  a  transi0on  centred  less  on   vehicles  -­‐  specifically  the  car  -­‐  and  more  on  the  mix  of  integrated  transport  op0ons,   proximity  of  online  availability  to  the  goods  and  services  that  society  demands.    
  48. 48. Mental  Health   The  visible  impact  and  cost  of  mental  health  drives  changes  in  social  aktudes     and  wider  healthcare  support.  New  treatment  approaches  are  coupled  with     the  decline  of  s0gma  in  many  circles  around  mental  illness  and  its  effects.    
  49. 49. Our  Habitat  
  50. 50. Housing  Everyone   Mass  migra0on  and  localised  popula0on  explosions  drive  up  the  cost  of  both     housing  access  and  home  ownership.  In  many  ci0es,  this  leads  to  the  development     of  new  living  spaces  and  ownership  models  that  try  to  accommodate  more  of  us.      
  51. 51. Unchartered  Waters   The  issues  facing  oceans  have  led  to  the  establishment  of  a  UN  Sustainable   Development  Goal  dedicated  to  ocean  conserva0on.  As  problems  become  more   visible  to  many  we  will  see  increased  recogni0on  of  the  need  for  bePer  governance.      
  52. 52. Infrastructure  Deficit   Infrastructure  again  becomes  a  source  of  compe00ve  advantage.  Emerging  economies   invest  heavily  in  new  railroads  and  highways  to  facilitate  more  effec0ve  movement  of   people  and  goods,  while  developed  na0ons  suffer  from  poor  upkeep  of  the  legacy.    
  53. 53. Dispersed  Tribes   Globalisa0on,  greater  connec0vity  and  ‘informa0on  at  your  finger0ps’  help     more  individuals  and  industries  share  knowledge  and  work  collabora0vely.     The  next  genera0on  of  workers  lead  a  more  transient  and  nomadic  life.    
  54. 54. CiOes  as  Products   The  most  successful  ci0es  are  specifically  designed  around  the  desires  and     needs  of  their  increasingly  empowered  ci0zens  who,  in  turn,  expect  a  healthily,   personalised  and  meaningful  rela0onship  with  their  urban  environment.    
  55. 55. Nature  Biodiversity   The  global  biodiversity  decline  will  con0nue  unless  ac0ons  are  taken  on  a  significant   scale.  We  will  see  greater  focus  on  understanding  the  impact  and  so  pukng  in  place   na0onal  plans  to  protect  and  restore  biodiversity  -­‐  but  will  it  be  enough?    
  56. 56. Simple  Tale  of  Country  Folk   For  some,  increasing  urbanisa0on  leads  to  a  growing  nostalgia  for  rural  life.     Sani0sed  ‘nature’  is  recreated  in  the  city  while  the  countryside  is  lec  to  large-­‐scale   farmers,  the  weak,  the  elderly  and  those  who  can  afford  to  recreate  arcadia.    
  57. 57. Basic  SanitaOon   Despite  major  ini0a0ves,  basic  sanita0on  is  a  gap  for  many  na0ons  and  prevents     wider  social  progress:  Female  educa0on  stops  at  puberty,  open  public  defeca0on     con0nues,  water  is  contaminated  and  overall  public  health  suffers  as  a  consequence.    
  58. 58. Preparing  for  Resilience   As  we  move  forward  wider  recogni0on  of  adapta0on  to  climate  change  plays     an  increasingly  important  role  in  defining  and  shaping  both  governmental     and  business  aktudes  and  risk  strategies.    
  59. 59. AcceleraOng  Displacement   A  faster  changing  climate  and  rapidly  increasing  inequali0es  of  opportunity  add     to  conflict  as  s0mulus  for  mass  migra0on  north  at  an  unprecedented  scale.     Over  1  billion  are  on  the  move  over  the  next  20  years.    
  60. 60. Beliefs  and  Belonging  
  61. 61. Working  Longer   For  those  who  have  inadequate  re0rement  savings,  the  most  obvious     solu0on  is  to  work  longer.  One  major  poten0al  barrier,  however,     is  that  employers  remain  ambivalent  about  older  workers.      
  62. 62. Agelessness   Culture  catches  up  with  demographics  and  age-­‐based  limita0ons  fade.  New   opportuni0es  for  older  people  to  par0cipate  in  society  emerge,  although  many  are   only  available  to  the  healthy  and  wealthy,  crea0ng  a  new  set  of  challenges.    
  63. 63. Aging  in  Community   Individuals,  families  as  well  as  healthcare  payers  desire  to  keep  older     people  living  healthy  and  independent  loner.  This  requires  upgraded  infrastructure,   transporta0on  systems  and  thoughVul  products  and  services.      
  64. 64. Care  for  the  Aging   As  the  popula0on  ages,  the  healthcare  sector  changes  the  way  in  which  it  delivers   support,  with  more  coordina0on  among  service  providers  and  more     in-­‐home  care.  There  is  also  a  frank  conversa0on  about  people’s  “right  to  die”.      
  65. 65. Human  Touch   As  service  provision  and  consump0on  becomes  ever  more  digital,  automated     and  algorithmic,  those  brands  that  can  offer  more  emo0onal  engagement     and  human  to  human  contact  become  increasingly  aPrac0ve.      
  66. 66. The  Age  of  Women   In  many  regions,  women  have  greater  control,  influence  and  increased  leadership   par0cipa0on.  This  changes  decision-­‐making,  strengthens  the  representa0on     of  the  feminine  view  and  helps  to  drive  more  balanced  ac0ons.    
  67. 67. Finding  Hope   Despite  desperate  hardship  and  widespread  expecta0ons  of  social  and  environmental   disasters,  the  belief  in  human  endeavour  remains.  Many  think  that  the  solu0ons  for   our  current  challenges  are  at  our  finger0ps  –  but  will  they  benefit  everyone?    
  68. 68. Faith  and  IdenOty   As  faith  evolves  to  encompass  greater  geographical  diversity,  new  sub-­‐religions  and     a  rekindling  of  tradi0onal  belief  systems,  it  becomes  more  significant  as  part  of     some  people’s  iden0ty  –  and  stronger  than  ci0zenship  and  na0onal  iden0ty.      
  69. 69. Power  and  Influence  
  70. 70. Influence  of  Government   The  influence  of  na0onal  and  state  governments  recede  as  the  solu0ons     to  problems  are  solved  elsewhere.  Mul0na0onal  corpora0on  partnerships     and  global  NGO  bodies  increasingly  set  the  direc0on  of  travel.      
  71. 71. Standards  ProtecOng  Trade   Global  and  regional  standards  are  used  as  a  tool  of  trade  protec0onism  within  specific   sectors  and  markets.  Locally  focused  regula0ons  and  interna0onal  protocols  favour   both  mul0na0onals  and  incumbents  but  are  barriers  to  new  exporters.      
  72. 72. Africa  Growth   Despite  concerns  around  governance  and  corrup0on,  the  aPrac0on  of  rising   popula0ons,  a  growing  workforce,  500m  new  middle  class  consumers  and  con0nued   resource  supplies  aPract  mul0ple  global  brands  to  make  Africa  the  #1  target  market.    
  73. 73. Cyber  Terrorism   Catastrophe-­‐driven  change  is  a  func0on  of  21st  century  living,  par0cularly  with  respect   to  cyber  threats  to  society  and  commerce.  The  race  is  on  to  see  if  we  will  contribute   effec0vely  in  these  areas  or  require  disaster  to  spark  our  collec0ve  response.      
  74. 74. SOll  Being  Stupid   Despite  a  bePer  understanding  of  the  long-­‐term  challenges  we  face,  we     individually  and  collec0vely  con0nue  to  make  decisions  that  may  make  sense     in  the  short-­‐term  -­‐  but  do  not  lead  to  bePer  longer-­‐term  consequences.        
  75. 75. New  Walled  Gardens   While  Globalisa0on  has  enabled  many  to  explore  and  experience  different  countries   and  cultures,  some  start  to  build  virtual  and  physical  walls  to  keep  people  away.  The   intrusion  of  mass  visitors  is  tolerated  only  when  there  is  direct  economic  benefit.      
  76. 76. Rise  of  the  Cult  of  China   As  China’s  economic  influence  on  the  world  increases  there  is  a  rise  in  the     cult  of  China  in  popular  imagina0ons  elsewhere.  Myths  of  hope  and  fear  will   proliferate  as  China’s  cultural  and  economic  influence  increase  hand-­‐in-­‐hand.      
  77. 77. Purpose  of  Companies   Successful  organisa0ons  align  their  purpose  with  addressing  specific  societal  and   stakeholder  needs  and  move  beyond  just  focusing  on  crea0ng  shareholder  value.     A  mul0-­‐capital  approach  to  integrated  repor0ng  takes  hold  and  spreads.      
  78. 78. Out  of  Sight   Criminals  and  non-­‐criminals  alike  are  moving  from  the  public  and  personal  spaces  to   the  anonymous  and  impersonal  spaces  of  the  dark  net.  Anonymity  is  aPrac0ve  to   many  but  many  of  the  shicing  sub-­‐cultures  are  increasingly  difficult  to  access.        
  79. 79. Changing  Business  
  80. 80. Global  Skill  ConcentraOons   Localised  needs  for  specialist  skills  drive  greater  white-­‐collar  migra0on  leading  to   more  geographic  concentra0on  of  skills  in  global  hubs.  High  skill  /  high  reward   opportuni0es  aPract  a  select  nomadic  group  who  move  ahead  of  the  mainstream.      
  81. 81. Speed  to  Scale   Greater  global  connec0vity,  growing  average  consumer  wealth,  broader  reach     and  the  adop0on  of  standard  plaVorms  all  combine  to  accelerate  the     0me  to  1bn  customers  for  start-­‐ups  and  new  corporate  ventures  alike.      
  82. 82. Full  Cost   The  next  decade  will  see  an  increasing  requirement  for  business  to  pay  the  full  cost  of   ac0vi0es  leading  to  a  reassessment  of  risk,  return  and  the  rela0onship  between   people,  planet  and  profit.  Surprisingly  this  may  be  accelerated  by  ini0a0ves  in  China.    
  83. 83. The  Sharing  Economy   Increasing  collabora0on  drives  companies  to  re-­‐organise  based  on  social  networks.   The  sharing  economy  changes  the  shape  of  many  organisa0ons,  but  the  shic  in     the  role  of  the  company  from  employer  to  facilitator  challenges  many.    
  84. 84. Dynamic  Pricing   Big  Data  and  predic0ve  analy0cs  help  to  set  pricing  at  a  more  granular  level  based  on   customer  demand  and  supply  informa0on.  This  enables  providers  to  re-­‐price  millions   of  products  in  real-­‐0me,  taking  advantage  of  greater  transparency  of  cost  and  value.      
  85. 85. Standards  Driving  InnovaOon   Across  key  areas  standards  increasingly  drive  innova0on.  From  sustainability  metrics   for  new  ci0es  in  China  to  Formula  E  driving  developments  in  the  automo0ve  sector,   we  will  see  new  a  rac  of  innova0ons  that  evolve  in  response  to  proac0ve  regula0on.    
  86. 86. Digital  Money   Cash  is  gradually  replaced  by  digital  money  providing  consumers  with  more   convenience  and  choice  –  and  organisa0ons  with  lower  cost  transac0ons.    Wider   adop0on  enables  new  offers  to  proliferate  –  including  in  the  black  economy.        
  87. 87. Currencies  of  Meaning   New  trusted  currencies  of  exchange  and  meaning  emerge  to  bePer  facilitate   transac0ons,  trade,  authen0ca0on  and  valida0on.  Money  as  a  means  of  exchange  is   complemented  by  new  /  tradi0onal  systems  to  which  we  aPach  greater  significance.    
  88. 88. OrganisaOon  3.0   New  forms  of  flaPer,  project-­‐based,  collabora0ve,  virtual,  informal     organisa0ons  dominate  -­‐  enabled  by  technology  and  a  global  mobile  workforce.     As  such  the  nature  of  work  and  the  role  of  organisa0on  itself  blurs.    
  89. 89. Last  Mile  Delivery     Seamless,  integrated  and  shared  last-­‐mile  delivery  replaces  inefficient  compe00on   and  duplica0on  of  goods  distribu0on:  Greater  efficiency  in  moving  things  is  as   important  as  efficiency  in  moving  people  and  so  a  major  focus  for  innova0on.    
  90. 90. Curators  and  Coaches   Smarter  mobile  technology  and  increasing  automa0on  redefine  professional     roles  -­‐  turning  teachers,  doctors  and  lawyers  into  coaches  and  mentors  as     individuals  of  all  ages  increasingly  navigate  connected  pathways.    
  91. 91. Some  QuesOons  
  92. 92. Some  QuesOons   We  have  curated  these  86  drac  issues  out  of  over  750  insights  gained  from   100+  discussions  around  the  world.  We  may  not  have  covered  everything  and   may  have  included  things  we  should  not?     Four  QuesOons  for  you:     1.  Which  of  these  issues  are  the  most  important  for  you?   2.  What  is  missing  from  this  view  that  ought  to  be  included?   3.  Do  the  groups  make  sense  and  if  not  what  should  we  change?   4.  Are  there  images  that  don’t  work  for  you  and  what  would  be  bePer?   Let  us  know  your  views  on  feedback@futureagenda.org    
  93. 93. Future  Agenda   84  Brook  Street   London   W1K  5EH   +44  203  0088  141   futureagenda.org   The  world’s  leading  open  foresight  program   What  do  you  think?   Join  In  |  Add  your  views  into  the  mix     www.futureagenda.org    

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