In October, we are sharing views on the much debated topic of Africa 4.0 - exploring the opportunities, challenges, implications and also some key questions for the future. This is the first draft for this talk and is being shared both so you can use but hopefully also so you can provide feedback - on what you agree with, what you disagree with and maybe what you think is missing. We will then collate, curate and share back an enhanced version of this - again for all to use as suits under creative commons.

1. Africa 4.0
Opportuni*es for Africa from Industry 4.0?
Cape Town | 13 October 2017 The world’s leading open foresight program

2. Context – Africa 4.0
With the rapid evolu*on of digital opportuni*es, there is growing expecta*on
that Industry 4.0 could have a drama*c impact on Africa. Will it? Can it help shiJ
Africa from leapfrogging to leading? Where are the biggest opportuni*es?

3. Overview
This talk looks at some of the key Industry 4.0 changes that are emerging.
It asks where and how they may impact Africa in the future and what are
some of the key challenges and opportuni*es that lie ahead.
Africa 4.0
Implica*ons Ques*ons
Future Africa
Challenges Opportuni*es
Industry 4.0
The Promise Example Impacts

4. Foresight vs. Insight

5. Future Agenda
The Future Agenda is the world’s largest open foresight program.
Run as a global dialogue across all con*nents, it accesses mul*ple views of the
next decade so we can all be beQer informed and so s*mulate innova*on.

6. Industry 4.0

7. Manufacturing’s Next Act
Smart factories feature decentralized systems that collaborate with each other with
excep*onal levels of produc*vity and quality. Component manufacture, assembly,
tes*ng and packaging are all more flexible, faster, cheaper and more effec*ve.

8. Automa?on Beyond the Factory
Outside the Smart Factory, many are preparing for a world in which the Internet of
Things, AI, machine learning and autonomous vehicles, all operate within an
increasingly connected world – where data and digital infrastructures dominate.

9. Everything Connected
Over 1 trillion sensors are connected to mul*ple networks: everything that can
benefit from a connec*on has one. We deliver 10,000x more data 100x more
effec*vely but are concerned about the security of informa*on flow.

10. Real Time Analy?cs
Pervasive data sharing combines with real *me analysis and machine learning
to provide all par*es with diagnos*cs and predica*on on vehicle safety,
op*mal scheduling of trains, and maintenance and self-repair of equipment.

11. Machine Learning Taking Control
With the rise of AI and autonomous compu*ng, machine learning is
increasingly put in control of managing our energy systems –
quickly realizing efficiency savings of around 50% in some sectors.

12. Digital Money
Cash con*nues to be gradually replaced by digital money, providing
consumers with more convenience and choice – and organisa*ons with
lower cost transac*ons. Wider adop*on enables new offers to proliferate.

13. Data Ownership
Individuals recognize the value of their digital shadows, privacy agents curate
clients’ data sets while personal data stores give us transparent control of
our informa*on: We retain more ownership of our data and opt to share it.

14. Building Data Marketplaces
Data is a currency, it has a value and a price, and therefore requires a
market place. An ecosystem for trading data is emerging and anything
that is informa*on is represented in a new data marketplace.

15. Growing Cyber Terrorism
Digital manufacturing and transport systems become increasingly popular
targets for hackers and cyber terrorists. Pervasive connec*vity and weak security
provide evermore open back doors for sustained denial of service.

16. Future Africa

17. Africa Growth
With a land mass bigger than India, China, the US and Europe combined, few doubt
the scale of Africa and its resources. However, un*l recently, only some have seen
the poten*al in the growth markets that some SSA na*ons are fast becoming.

18. Equitable Economic Growth
Some of the world’s fastest growing economies are to be found in Africa
– but so also are many of the na*ons with the fastest growing popula*ons.
Ensuring that the economic growth benefits all is seen as a challenge for many.

19. Impacts of Climate Change
As the world warms by between 2oC and 4oC, Africa is expected to warm up to 1.5
*mes faster that the average. Key implica*ons include flooding in Dar es Salaam and
Lagos, severe droughts, lower food yields and the migra*on of ten of millions north.

20. Modernizing Long Distance Networks
Transporta*on costs add 50% to 75% in Rwanda, Malawi and Uganda.
Upgrading interna*onal roads and a revival of rail is a high priority but
the payback for China in funding much of this raises many ques*ons.

21. Digital Connec?vity in Africa
Across different African na*ons, the current levels of digital connec*vity varies
significantly. SSA accounts for 1/10 of global mobile subscribers and is
expected to grow faster that every other region over the next five years.
Smartphone Penetra*on (GSMA 2017)
3G/4G Network Coverage
Mobile Penetra?on
<50%
50-75%
>75%
South Africa
100%
50%
50% 25% 0%
Nigeria
Sudan
AFRICA
GLOBAL
ECOWAS
ECCAS
EAC
SADC
Tanzania

22. Leapfrogging to Leaders
Some African economies do more than catch up. As with mobile telecoms,
they are adop*ng new energy systems early, leapfrogging the West with some
rapidly also becoming leaders in low-cost services to a growing middle class.

23. Kenya Already Leading
Due to the success of m-Pesa, Kenya is widely recognized as a leading hub for mobile
payments. Moving ahead, with increased investment and interest from the likes of
Facebook, Nairobi may well become one of the world’s most innova*ve ci*es.

24. Africa 4.0

25. Op?mized Solar
Incorpora*ng AI algorithms into the management of solar supply and demand
networks can significantly improve efficiency of energy consump*on via
localized smart grids - where everyone is an energy producer and consumer.

26. Op?mising Last Mile Delivery
Seamless, integrated and shared last-mile delivery replaces inefficient
compe**on and duplica*on of goods distribu*on. Greater efficiency in moving
things is as important as in moving people and so a major focus for innova*on.

27. Financial Inclusion
Improving access to, as well as trust in, new banking plamorms is expected to
significantly enhance financial inclusion. From a regulatory perspec*ve, DRC is
already seen as one of the most proac*ve na*ons in the world for mobile payments.

28. Fric?onless Currency Transfer
To improve trade flows enhancing interna*onal remiQance payments is a major focus.
Using a combina*on of mobile and bitcoin, more are looking to avoid high bank
charges as new digital forex exchanges are emerging fast across the con*nent.

29. Smart Government
Many are hoping that greater ICT access and broadband adop*on will improve
government efficiency and transparency. With the private sector as a priority, the
Smart Africa Manifesto has been endorsed by most and partnerships are in mo*on.

30. Digital Iden??es
As mul*-factor biometrics and widespread fingerprint driven iden*ty verifica*on
takes hold, authen*ca*on and engagement of the wider popula*on increases.
As in India, digital iden**es may well open the door to the mainstream.

31. The Rise of Machines
The growth in the intelligence and capabili*es of machines presents both a threat and
an opportunity: Greater AI and automa*on will free up *me, but also threaten jobs:
Already short of 1m engineers, bridging the digital skills gap is an Africa priority.

32. Healthcare Efficiency
With greater levels of mobile health, remote support is extending reach, reducing
costs and improving healthcare efficiency. Africa and India are both seen as leaders for
start-ups partnering with networks to improve compliance, stock and affordability.

33. Drone Delivery
With early success of pilots in Rwanda, the delivery of blood products and
vaccines by drone is being supported as a major change agent for public health.
Add in greater automa*on and naviga*on and the impact scales significantly.

34. Agricultural Produc?vity
With increasing access to real *me analy*cs and data visualisa*on, more farmers are
able to beQer align irriga*on and fer*lizer use and so improve yields. In Ghana and
Cameroon shared data is reducing price asymmetry and lowering payment costs.

35. Land Administra?on
Few African farmers currently have rights over the land they work. Adop*ng a digital
approach, such as block-chain, to assign and manage rights may be transforma*onal
– unlocking ‘dark capital’ can significantly improve yields and investment.

36. Risk Mi?ga?on
Across a con*nent of many na*ons, managing risk is an increasing focus.
BeQer regional integra*on is seen as a core component as is wider adop*on of
digital iden**es for payments, social security and ci*zenship.

37. Deeper Collabora?on
Partnerships shiJ to become more dynamic, long-term, democra*sed,
mul*-party collabora*ons. Compe*tor alliances and wider public par*cipa*on
drive regulators to create new legal frameworks for open, empathe*c collabora*on.

38. Five Ques?ons for Africa 4.0

39. System Efficiency
What levels of impact from Africa 4.0 can be expected in key areas of the economy?
Which are most open to change, which have the greatest poten*al for change
and which have the ability to drive the change most effec*vely?

40. Disrup?on Poten?al
As more entrepreneurs become connected and enabled to innovate, what sectors
will be those most open to major disrup*on and reinven*on and which will
nurture start-ups able to have significant impact on the global stage?

41. Sharing the Benefits
As the influence of Africa 4.0 spreads and improves efficiency and impact,
further economic growth will follow. How will the benefits be shared more
equitably across the whole of society and not just between the leadership?

42. China’s Extending Influence
China is already Africa’s biggest trading partner and is behind much of the new
infrastructure investments. How will na*ons best manage this rela*onship in the
digital world and prevent it from being the 21st century version of coloniza*on?

43. Government Collabora?on
Data does not recognize na*onal boundaries. It flows wherever it is wanted.
How can African governments and industries improve collabora*on on Africa 4.0
to enable the poten*al of digitaliza*on being discussed to best be realized?

44. Future Agenda
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