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SAS PART II
PAPER VII
SECTION – I: FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
INDEX
1. FINANCE
Sl. No. TOPICS
1. Financial Management - An overview, an
understanding of basic terms / concept in
Finance.
2. Concept of Time Value of Money.
3. Capital Expenditure Decisions.
4. Project Appraisal and Control Techniques
FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT -AN OVERVIEW
INTRODUCTION
Finance may be defined as the art and science of managing money. The major
areas of finance are: (1) financial services and (2) managerial finance/corporate
finance/financial management. While financial services is concerned with the
design and delivery of advice and financial products to individuals, businesses
and governments within the areas of banking and related institutions, personal
financial planning, investments, real estate, insurance and so on, financial
management is concerned with the duties of the financial managers in the
business firm. Financial managers actively manage the financial affairs of any
type of business, namely, financial and non-financial, private and public, large
and small, profit-seeking and not-for-profit. They perform such varied tasks as
budgeting, financial forecasting, cash management, credit administration,
investment analysis, funds management and so on. In recent years, the
changing regulatory and economic environments coupled with the globalisation
of business activities have increased, the complexity as well as the importance
of the financial managers' duties. As a result, the financial management function
has become more demanding and complex. This Chapter provides an overview
of financial management function. It is organised into seven Sections:
. Relationship of finance and related disciplines
. Scope of financial management
. Goal /objectives ,of financial management
. Agency problem
. Organisation of the finance function
. Emerging role of finance managers in India
. An overview
FINANCE –FINANCE AND RELATED DISCIPLINE
Financial management, as an integral part of overall management, is not a totally
independent area. It draws heavily on related disciplines and fields of study, such
as economics, "accounting, marketing, production and quantitative methods.
Although these disciplines are interrelated, there are key differences among
them. In this Section, we discuss these relationships.
Finance and Economics
The relevance of economics. to financial management can be described in the
light of the two
broad areas of economics: macroeconomics and
microeconomics.
Macroeconomics is concerned with the overall institutional environment in
which the firm operates. It looks at the economy as a whole. Macroeconomics is
concerned with the institutional structure of the banking system, money and
capital markets, financial intermediaries, monetary, credit and fiscal policies and
economic policies dealing with, and controlling level of, activity within an
economy. Since business firms operate in the macroeconomic environment, it is
important for financial managers to understand the broad economic environment.
Specifically, they should (1) recognise and understand how monetary policy
affects the cost and the availability of funds; (2) be versed in fiscal policy and its
effects on the economy; (3) be ware of the various financial institutions/financing
outlets; (4) understand the consequences of various levels of economic activity
and changes in economic policy for their decision environment and so on.
Microeconomics deals with the economic decisions of individuals and
organisations. It concerns itself with the determination of optimal operating
strategies. In other words, the theories of microeconomics provide for effective
operations of business firms. They are concerned with defining actions that will
permit the firms to achieve success. The concepts and theories of
microeconomics relevant to financial management are, for instance, those
involving (1) supply and demand relationships and profit maximisation strategies,
(2) issues related to the mix of productive factors, 'optimal' sales level and
product pricing strategies, (3) measurement of utility preference, risk and the
determination of value, and (4) the rationale of depreciating assets. In addition,
the primary principle that applies in financial management is marginal analysis; it
suggests that financial decisions should be made on the basis of comparison of
marginal revenue and marginal cost. Such decisions will lead to an increase in
profits of the firm. It is, therefore, important that financial managers must be
familiar with basic microeconomics.
To illustrate, the financial manager of a department store is contemplating to
replace one of its online computers with a new, more sophisticated one that
would both speed up processing time and handle a large volume of transactions.
The new computer would require a cash outlay of Rs 8,00,000 and the old
computer could be sold to net Rs 2,80,000. The total benefits from the new
computer and the old computer would be Rs 10,00,000 and Rs 3,50,000
respectively. Applying marginal analysis, we get:
Benefits with new computer Rs
10,00,000
Less: Benefits with old computer Marginal benefits (a) Cost of new computer
3,50,000
Marginal Benefits (a)
Rs 6,50,000
Cost of new computer
Rs 8,00,000
Less: Proceeds from sale of old computer Marginal cost (b) Net benefits [(a) -
(b)] Rs 2,80,000
Marginal cost (b)
Rs 5,20,000
Net benefits (a) –(b)
1,30,0000
As the store would get a net benefit of Rs 1,30,000, the old computer should be
replaced by the new one.
Thus, a knowledge of economics is necessary for a financial manager to
understand both the financial environment and the decision theories which
underline contemporary financial management. He should be familiar with these
two areas of economics. Macroeconomics provides the financial manager with an
insight into policies by which economic activity is controlled. Operating within that
institutional framework, the financial manager draws on microeconomic theories
of the operation of firms and profit maximisation. A basic knowledge of
economics is, therefore, necessary to understand both the environment and the
decision. techniques of financial management.
Finance and Accounting
The relationship between finance and accounting, conceptually speaking, has
two dimensions: CO they are closely related to the extent that accounting is an
important input in financial decision
making; and (ii) there. are key differences in viewpoints between them. .
Accounting function is a necessary input into the finance function. That is,
accounting is a subfunction of finance. Accounting generates information/data
relating to operations/activities of the firm. The end-product of accounting
constitutes financial statements such as the balance sheet, the income statement
(profit and loss account) and the statement of changes in financial position/
sources and uses of funds statement/cash flow statement. The information
contained in these statements and reports assists financial managers in
assessing the past performance and future directions of the firm and in meeting
legal obligations, such as payment of taxes and so on. Thus, accounting and
finance are functionally closely related. Moreover, the finance (treasurer) and
accounting (controller) activities are typically within the control of the vice-
president/director (finance)/Chief financial officer (CFO) as shown in Fig. 1.2.
These functions are closely related and generally overlap; indeed, financial
management and accounting are often not easily distinguishable. In small firms
the controller often carries out the finance function and in large firms many
accountants are intimately involved in various finance activities.
But there are two key differences between finance and accounting. The first
difference relates to the treatment of funds, while the second relates to decision
making.
Treatment of Funds The viewpoint of accounting relating to the funds of the firm
is different from that of finance. The measurement of funds (income and
expenses) in accounting is based on the accrual principle/system. For instance,
revenue is recognised at the point of sale and not when collected. Similarly,
expenses are recognised when they are incurred rather than when actually paid.
The accrual-based accounting data do not reflect fully the financial
circumstances of the firm. A firm may be quite profitable in the accounting sense
in that it has earned profit (sales less expenses) but it may not be able to meet
current obligations owing to shortage of liquidity. due to uncollectable
receivables, for instance. Such a firm will not survive regardless of its levels of
profits.
,The viewpoint of finance relating to the treatment of funds is based on
cashflows. The revenues are recognised only when actually received in cash
(Le. cash inflow) and expenses are recognised on actual payment (Le. cash
outflow). This is so because the financial manager is concerned with maintaining
solvency of the firm by providing the cashflows necessary to satisfy its
obligations and acquiring and financing the assets needed to achieve the goals
of the firm. Thus, cashflow-based returns help financial managers avoid
insolvency and achieve the desired financial goals.
To illustrate, total sales of a trader during the year amounted to Rs 10,00,000
while the cost of sales was Rs 8,00,000. At the end of the year, it has yet to
collect Rs 8,00,000 from the customers. The accounting view and the financial
view of the firms performance during the year are given below.
Accounting View Financial
View
(Income Statement) (Cash Flow Statement)
Sales Rs 10,00,000 Cash inflow
Rs 2,00,000
Less: Cost Rs 8,00,000 Less cash outflow
Rs 8,00,000
_____________
___________
Net Profit Rs 2,00,000 Net cash
outflow Rs 6,00,000
Obviously, the firm is quite profitable in accounting sense, it is a financial failure
in, terms of actual cash flows resulting from uncollected receivables. Regardless
of its profits, the firm would not survive due to inadequate cash inflows to meet its
obligations.
Decision Making Finance and accounting also differ in respect of their
purposes. The purpose of accounting is collection and presentation of financial
data. It provides consistently developed and easily interpreted data on the past,
present and future operations of the firm. The financial manager uses such data
for financial decision making. It does not mean that accountants never make
decisions or financial managers never collect data. But the primary focus of the
functions of accountants is on collection and presentation of data while the
financial manager's major responsibility relates to financial planning, controlling
and decision making. Thus, in a sense, finance begins where accounting ends.
Finance and Other Related
Disciplines
Apart from economics and accounting, finance also draws-for its day-to-day
decisions-on supportive disciplines such as marketing, production and
quantitative methods. For instance, financial managers should consider the
impact of new product development and promotion plans made in marketing area
since their plans will require capital outlays and have an impact on the projected
cash flows. Similarly, changes in the production process may necessitate capital
expenditures which the financial managers must evaluate and finance. And,
finally, the tools of analysis developed in the quantitative methods area are
helpful in analysing complex financial management problems.
The marketing, production and quantitative methods are, thus, only indirectly
related to day-today decision making by financial managers and are supportive in
nature while economics and accounting are the primary disciplines on which the
financial manager draws substantially.
The relationship between financial management and supportive disciplines is
depicted in Fig 1.1.
Financial Decision Area
Primary Discipline
1. Accounting
1. Investment analysis Support
2. Macroeconomics
2~ Working capital management:
3. Micro economics
3. Sources and cost of funds
4. Determination of capital structure
5. Dividend policy. '
6. Analysis of risks and returns Support
Other Relates Discipline
1. Marketing
2. Production
3. Quantatative
method
Resulting in
Shareholders Wealth Maximisation
SCOPE OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
The approach to the scope and functions of financial management is divided, for
purposes of exposition, into two broad categories: (a) The Traditional Approach,
and (b) The Modem Approach.
Traditional Approach
The traditional approach to the scope of financial management refers to its
subject-matter, in academic literature in the initial stages of its evolution, as a
separate branch of academic Study. The term 'corporation finance' was used to
describe what is now known in the academic world as 'financial management'. As
the name suggests, the concern of corporation finance was with the financing of
corporate enterprises. In other words, the scope of the finance function was
treated by the traditional approach in the narrow sense of procurement of funds
by corporate enterprise to meet their financing needs. The term 'procurement'
was used in a broad sense so as to include the whole gamut of raising funds
externally. Thus defined, the field of study dealing with finance was treated as
encompassing three interrelated aspects of raising and administering resources
from outside: (i) the institutional arrangement in the form of financial institutions
which comprise the organisation of the capital market; (ii) the financial
instruments through which funds are raised from the capital markets and the
related aspects of practices and the procedural aspects of capital markets; and
(iii) the legal and accounting relationships between a firm and its sources of
funds. The coverage of corporation finance was, therefore, conceived to describe
the rapidly evolving complex of capital market institutions, instruments and
practices. A related aspect was that firms require funds at certain episodic events
such as merger, liquidation, reorganisation and so on. A detailed description of
these major events constituted the second element of the scope of this field of
academic study. That these were the broad features of the subject-matter of
corporation finance is eloquently reflected in the academic writings around the
period during which the traditional approach dominated academic thinking. 1
Thus, the issues to which literature on finance addressed itself was how
resources could best be raised from the combination of the available sources.
The traditional approach to the scope of the finance function evolved during the
1920s and 1930s and dominated academic thinking during' th~ forties and
through the early ftfties. It has now been discarded as it suffers from serious
limitations. The weaknesses of the traditional approach fall into two broad
categories: (i) those relating to the treatment of various topics and the emphasis
attached to them; and (ii) those relating to the basic conceptual and analytical
framework of the definitions and scope of the finance function.
The first argument against the traditional approach was based on its emphasis
on issues relating to the procurement of funds by corporate enterprises. This
approach was challenged during the period when the approach dominated the
scene itself.2 Further, the traditional treatment of finance was criticised3 because
the finance function was equated with the issues involved in raising and
administering funds, the theme was woven around the viewpoint of the suppliers
of funds such as investors, investment bankers and so on, that, is the outsiders.
It implies that no consideration was given to viewpoint of those who had to take
internal financial decisions. The traditional treatment was, in other words, the
outsider-looking-in approach. The limitation was that internal decision making (ie.
insider-looking-out) was completely ignored.
The second ground of criticism of the traditional treatment was that the focus
was on financing problems of corporate enterprise. To that extent the scope of
financial management was confirmed only to a segment of the industrial
enterprises, as non-corporate organisations lay outside its scope.
Yet another basis on which the traditional approach was challenged was that
the treatment was built too closely around episodic events, such as promotion,
incorporation, merger, consolidation, reorganisation and so on. Financial
management was' confirmed to a description of these infrequent happenings in
the life of an enterprise. As a logical corollary, the day-to-day financial problems
of a normal company did not receive much attention.
Finally, the traditional treatment was found to have a lacuna to the extent that
the focus was on long-term financing. Its natural implication was that the issues
involved in working capital management were not in the purview of the finance
function.
The limitations of the traditional approach were not entirely based on treatment
or emphasis of different aspects. In other words, its weaknesses were more
fundamental. The conceptual and analytical shortcoming of this approach arose
from the fact that it confirmed financial management to issues involved in
procurement of external funds, it did not consider the important dimension of
allocation of capital. The conceptual framework of the traditional treatment
ignored what Solomon aptly described as the central issues of financial
management. These issues were reflected in the following fundamental
questions which a finance manager should address. Should an enterprise
commit capital funds to certain purposes? Do the expected returns meet financial
standards of performance? How should these standards be set and what is the
cost of capital funds to the enterprises? How does the cost vary with the mixture
of financing methods used? In the absence of the coverage of these crucial
aspects, the traditional approach implied a very narrow scope for financial
management. The modem approach provides a solution to these shortcomings.
Modem Approach
The modern approach views the term financial management in a broad sense
and provides a conceptual and analytical framework for financial decision
making. According to it, the finance function covers both acquisition of funds as
well as their allocations. Thus, apart from the issues involved in acquiring
external funds, the main concern of financial management is the efficient and
wise allocation of funds to various uses. Defined in a broad sense, it is viewed as
an integral part of overall management.
The new approach is an analytical way of viewing the financial problems of a
firm. The main contents of this approach are: What is the total volume of funds
an enterprise should commit? What specific assets should an enterprise acquire?
How should the funds required be financed? Alternatively, the principal contents
of the modem approach to financial management can be said to be: (0 how large
should an enterprise be, and how fast should it grow? (ii) In what form should it
hold assets? and (Hi) what should be the composition of its liabilities?
The three questions posed above cover between them the major' financial
problems of a firm. In other words, the financial management, according to the
new approach, is concerned with the solution of three major problems relating to
the financial operations of a firm, corresponding to the three questions of
investment, financing and dividend decisions. Thus, financial management in
modern sense of a firm can be broken down into three major decisions as
functions of finance: (D The investment decision, (ii) the financing decision, and
(iii) the dividend policy decision.
Investment Decision The investment decision relates to the selection of assets
in which funds will be invested by a firm. The assets which can be acquired fall
into two broad groups: (I) long-term assets which yield a return over a period of
time in future, (ii) short-term or current assets, defined as those assets which in
the normal course of business are convertible into cash without diminution in
value, usually within a year. The first of these involving the first category of
assets is popularly known in financial literature as capital budgeting. The aspect
of financial decision making with reference to current assets or short-term assets
is popularly termed as working capital management.
Capital Budgeting Capital budgeting is probably the most crucial financial
decision of a firm. It relates to the selection of an asset or investment proposal or
course of action whose benefits are likely to be available in future over the
lifetime of the project. The long-term assets can be either new or old/existing
ones. The first aspect of the capital budgeting decision relates to the choice of
the new asset out of the alternatives available or the reallocation of capital when
an existing asset fails to justify the funds committed. Whether an asset will be
accepted or not will depend upon the relative benefits and returns associated
with it. The measurement of the worth of the investment proposals is, therefore, a
major element in the capital budgeting exercise. This implies a discussion of the
methods of appraising investment proposals.
The second element of the capital budgeting decision is the analysis of risk and
uncertainty. Since the benefits from the investment proposals extend into the
future, their accrual is uncertain. They have to be estimated under various
assumptions of the physical volume of sale and the level of prices. An element of
risk in the sense of uncertainty of future' benefits is, thus, involved in the
exercise. The returns from capital budgeting decisions should, therefore, be
evaluated in relation to the risk associated with it.
Finally, the evaluation of the worth of a long-term project implies a certain norm
or standard against which the benefits are to be judged. The requisite norm is
known by different names such as cut-off rate, hurdle rate, required rate,
minimum rate of return and so on. This standard is broadly expressed in terms
of the cost of capital. The concept and measurement of the cost of capital is,
thus, another major aspect of capital budgeting decision. In brief, the main
elements of capital budgeting decisions are: (I) the long-term assets and their
composition, (ii) the business risk complexion of the firm, and (Hi) the concept
and measurement of the cost of capital.
Working Capital Management Working capital management is concerned
with the management of current assets. It is an important and integral part of
financial management as short-term survival is a prerequisite for long-term
success. One aspect of working capital management is the trade-off between
profitability and risk (liquidity). There is a conflict between profitability and
liquidity. If a firm does not have adequate working capital, that is, it does not
invest sufficient funds in current assets, it may become illiquid and consequently
may not have the ability to meet its current obligations and, thus, invite the risk of
bankruptcy.. If the current assets are too large, profitability is adversely affected.
The key strategies and considerations in ensuring a trade-off between profitability
and liquidity is one major dimension of working capital management. In addition,
the individual current assets should be efficiently managed so that neither
inadequate nor unnecessary funds are locked up. Thus, the management of
working capital has two basic ingredients: (1) an overview of working capital
management as a whole, and (2) efficient management of the individual current
assets such as cash, receivables and inventory.
Financing Decision the second major decision involved in financial
management is the financing decision. The investment decision is broadly
concerned with the asset-mix or the composition of the assets of a firm. The
concern of the financing decision is with the financing-mix or capital structure or
leverage. The term capital structure refers to the proportion of debt (fixed-
interest sources of financing) and equity capital (variable-dividend
securities/source of funds). The financing decision of a firm relates to the choice
of the proportion of these sources to finance the investment requirements. There
are two aspects of the financing decision. First, the theory of capital structure
which shows the theoretical relationship between the employment of debt and
the return to the shareholders. The use of debt implies a higher return to the
shareholders as also the financial risk. A proper balance between debt and
equity to ensure a trade-off between risk and return to the shareholders is
necessary. A capital structure with a reasonable proportion of debt and equity
capital is called the optimum capital structure. Thus, one dimension of the
financing decision whether there is an optimum capital structure and in what
proportion should funds be raised to maximise the return to the shareholders?
The second aspect of the financing decision is the determination of to an
appropriate capital structure, given the facts of a particular case. Thus, the
financing decision covers two interrelated aspects: (1) the capital structure
theory, and (2) the capital structure decision.
Dividend Policy Decision The third major decision area of financial
management is the decision relating to the dividend policy. The dividend decision
should be analysed in' relation to the financing decision of a firm. Two
alternatives are available in dealing with the profits of a firm: (0 they can be
distributed to the shareholders in the form of dividends or (i0 they can be retained
in the business itself. The decision as to which course should be followed
depends largely on a significant element in the dividend decision, the dividend-
payout ratio, that is, what proportion of net profits should be paid out to the
shareholders. The fmal decision will depend upon the preference of the
shareholders and investment opportunities available within the firm. The second
major aspect of the. dividend decision is the factors determining dividend policy
of a firm in practice. .
To conclude, the traditional approach to the functions of financial management
had a very narrow perception and was devoid of an integrated conceptual and
analytical framework. It had rightly been discarded in the ac:ldemic literature. The
modem approach to the scope of financial management has broadened its scope
which involves the solution of three major decisions, namely, investment,
fmancing and dividend. These are interrelated and should be jointly taken so that
financial decision making is optimal. The conceptual framework for optimum
financial decisions is the objective of financial management. In other words, to
ensure an optimum decision in respect of these three areas, they should be
related to the objectives of financial management.
Key Activities of the Financial Manager
The primary activities of a financial manager are: (i) performing financial
analysis and planning, (i0 making investment decisions and (HO making
financing decisions.
Performing Financial Analysis and Planning The concern of financial analysis
and planning is with (a) transforming financial data into a form that can be used to
monitor financial condition, (b) evaluating the need for increased (reduced) productive
capacity and (c) determining the additional/reduced financing required. Although this
activity relies heavily on accrual-based financial statements, its underlying objective is to
assess cash flows and develop plans to ensure adequate cash flows to support
achievement of the firm's goals
Making Investment Decisions Investment decisions determine both the mix
and the type of assets held by a firm. The mix refers to the amount of current
assets and fixed assets. Consistent with the mix, the financial manager must
determine and maintain certain optimal levels of each type of current assets. He
should 211so decide the best fixed assets to acquire and when existing fixed
assets need to be modified/replaced/liquidated. The success of a firm in
achieving its goals depends on these decisions.
Making Financing Decisions Financing decisions involve two major areas:
first, the most appropriate mix of short-term and long-term financing; second, the
best individual short-term or long-term sources of financing at a given point of
time. Many of these decisions are dictated by necessity, but some require an in-
depth analysis of the available financing alternatives, their costs and their long-
term implications
OBJECTIVES OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
To make wise decisions a clear understanding of the objectives which are sought
to be achieved is necessary. The objective provide a framework for optimum
financial decision making. In other words, they are concerned with designing a
method of operating the internal investment and financing of a firm. The term
'objective' is used in the sense of a goal or decision criterion for the three
decisions involved in financial management. It implies that what is relevant is not
the overall objective or goal of a business but a operationally useful criterion by
which to judge a specific set of mutually interrelated business decisions, namely,
investment, financing and dividend policy. Moreover, it provides a nOffi'lative
framework. That is, the focus in financial literature is on what a firm should try to
achieve and on policies that should b~ followed if certain goals are to be
achieved. The implication is that these are not necessarily followed by firms in
actual practice. They are rather employed to serve as a basis for theoretical
analysis and do not reflect contemporary empirical industry practices. Thus, the
term is used in a rather narrow sense of what a finn should anempt to achieve
with its investment, fmancing and dividend policy decisions.
Firms in practice state their vision, mission and values in broad terms and are
also concerned about technology, leadership, productivity, market standing,
image, profitability, financial resources, employees satisfaction and so on.
We discuss in this Section the alternative approaches in financial literature,
There are two widely-discussed approaches: (0 Profit (total)/Earning Per Share
(EPS) maximisation approach, and (i0 Wealth maximisation approach.
The gross present worth of a course of action is equal to the capitalised value of the flow of
futUre expected benefit, discounted (or captialised) at a rate which reflects their certainty or
uncertainty. Wealth or net present worth is the difference between gross present worth and the
amount of capital investment required to achieve the benefits being discussed. Any financial
action which creates wealth or which has a net present worth above zero is a desirable one and
should be undertaken. Any financial action which does not meet this test should be rejected. If
two or more desirable courses of action are mutUally exclusive (Le. if only one can be
undertaken), then the decision should be to do
Profit/EPS Maximisation Decision
Criterion
According to this approach, actions that increase profits (total)/EPS should be
undertaken and those that decrease profits/EPS are to be avoided, In specific
operational terms, as applicable to financial management, the profit maximisation
criterion implies that the investment, financing and dividend policy decisions of a
firm should be oriented to the maximisation of profits/EPS.
The term 'profit' can be used in two senses. As a owner-oriented concept, it
refers to the amount and share of national income which is paid to the owners of
business, that is, those who supply equity capital. As a variant, it is described as
profitability. It is an operational concept and signifies economic efficiency. In other
words, profitability refers to a situation where output exceeds input, that is, the value
created by the use of resources is more than the total of the input resources. Used in this
sense, profitability maximisation would imply that a firm should be guided in financial
decision making by one test; select assets, projects and decisions which are profitable and
reject those which are not. In the current financial literature, there is a general agreement
that profit maximisation is used in the second sense.
The rationale behind profitability maximisation, as a guide to financial decision
making, is simple. Profit is a test of economic efficiency. It provides the yardstick
by which economic performance can be judged. Moreover, it leads to efficient
allocation of resources, as resources tend to be directed to uses which in terms
of profitability are the most desirable. Finally, it ensures maximum social welfare.
The individual search for maximum profitability provides the famous 'invisible
hand' by which total economic welfare is maximised. Financial management is
concerned with the efficient use of an important economic resource (jnput) ,
namely, capital. It is, therefore, argued that profitability maximisation should
serve as the basic criterion for financial" management decisions.
The profit maximisation criterion has, however, been questioned and criticised
on several grounds. The reasons for the opposition in academic literature fall into
two broad groups: (1) those that are based on misapprehensions about the
workability and fairness of the private enterprise itself, and (2) those that arise
out of the difficulty of applying this criterion in actual situations. It would be
recalled that the term objective, as applied to financial management, refers to an
explicit operational guide for the internal investment and financing of a firm and
not the overall goal of business operations. We, therefore, focus on the second
type of limitations to profit maximisation as an objective of financial
management.7 The main tecbnical flaws of this criterion are ambiguity, timing
of benefits, and quality of benefits.
Ambiguity One practical difficulty with profit maximisation criterion for financial
decision making is that the term profit is a vague and ambiguous concept. It has
no precise connotation. It is amenable to different interpretations by different
people. To illustrate, profit may be short-term or long-term; it may be total profit
or rate of profit; it may be before-tax or after-tax; it may return on total capital
employed or total assets or shareholders' equity and so on. If profit maximisation
is taken to be the objective, the question arises, which of these variants of profit
should a firm try to maximise? Obviously, a loose expression like profit cannot
form the basis of operational criterion for financial management.
Timing of Benefits A more important technical objection to profit maximisation,
as a guide to financial decision making, is that it ignores the differences in the
time pattern of the benefits received over the working life of the asset,
irrespective of when they were received. Consider Table 1.1.
Time-Pattern of Benefits (Profits)
Time Alternate A(Rs in
lakh)__________Alternate B(Rs in lakh)
Period I 50
--
Period II 100 100
Period III 50 100
________________________________________________________________
___________________
Total 200 200
It can be seen from Table 1.1 that the total profits associated with the
alternatives, A and B, are identical. If the profit maximisation is the decision
criterion, both the alternatives would be ranked equally. But the returns from both
the alternatives differ in one important respect, while alternative A provides
higher returns in earlier years, the returns from alternative B are larger in later
years. As a result, the two alternative courses of action are not strictly identical.
This is primarily because a basic dictum of financial planning is the earlier the
better as benefits received sooner are more valuable than benefits received later.
The reason for the superiority of benefits now over benefits later lies in the fact
that the former can be reinvested to earn a return. This is referred to as time
value of money. The profit maximisation criterion does not consider the
distinction between returns received in different time periods and treats all
benefits irrespective of the timing, as equally valuable. This is not true in actual
practice as benefits in early years should be valued more highly than equivalent
benefits in later years. The assumption of equal value is inconsistent with the real
world situation.
Quality of Benefits Probably the most important technical limitation of profit
maximisation as an operational objective, is that it ignores the quality aspect of
benefits associated with a financial course of action. The term quality here refers
to the degree of certainty with which benefits can be expected. As a rule, the
more certain the expected return, the higher is the quality of the benefits.
Conversely, the more uncertain/fluctuating is the expected benefits, the lower is
the quality of the benefits. An uncertain and fluctuating return implies risk to the
investors. It can be safely assumed that the investors are risk-averters, that is,
they want to avoid or at least minimise risk. They can, therefore, be reasonably
expected to have a preference for a return which is more certain in the sense that
it has smaller variance over the years.
The problem of uncertainty renders profit maximisation unsuitable as an
operational criterion for financial management as it considers only the size of
benefits and gives no weight to the degree of uncertainty of the future benefits.
This is illustrated in Table 1.2.
Uncertainty About Expected Benefits (Profits)
Profit(Rs
crore)
__________________________________________
State of Economy Alternate A
Benefits
Recession (Period I) 9 0
Normal (Period II) 10
10
Boom (Period III) 11
20
Total 30
30
It is clear from Table 1.2 that the total returns associated with the two
alternatives are identical in a normal situation but the range of variations is very
wide in case of alternative B, while it is narrow in respect of alternative A. To put
It differently, the earnings associated with alternative B are more uncertain (risky)
as they fluctuate widely depending on the state of the economy. Obviously,
alternative A is beuer in terms of risk and uncertainty. The profit maximisation
criterion fails to reveal this.
To conclude, the profit maximisation criterion is inappropriate and unsuitable
as an operational objective of investment, financing and dividend decisions of a
firm. It is not only vague and ambiguous but it also ignores two important
dimensions of financial analysis, namely, risk, and time value of money. It follows
from the above that an appropriate operational decision criterion for financial
management should (j) be precise and exact, (ij) be based on the 'bigger the
better' principle, (iij) consider both quantity and quality dimensions of benefits,
and (iv) recognise the time value of money. The alternative to profit
maxirnisation, that is, wealth maximisation is one such measure.
Wealth Maximisation Decision Criterion
This is also known as value maximisation or net present worth maximisation. In
current academic literature value maximisation is almost universally accepted as
an appropriate operational decision criterion for financial management decisions
as it removes the technical limitations which characterise the earlier profit
maximisation criterion. Its operational features satisfy all the three requirements
of a suitable operational objective of financial course of action, namely,
exactness, quality of benefits and the time value of money.
The value of an asset should be viewed in terms of the benefits it can produce.
The worth of a course of action can similarly be judged in terms of the value of
the benefits it produces less the cost of undertaking it. A significant element in
computing the value of a financial course of action is the precise estimation of
the benefits associated with it. The wealth maximisation criterion is based on the
concept of cash flows generated by the decision rather than accounting profit
which is the basis of the measurement of benefits in the case of the profit
maximisation criterion. Cash flow is a precise concept with a definite connotation.
Measuring benefits in terms of cash flows avoids the ambiguity associated with
accounting profits. This is the first operational feature of the net present worth
maximisation criterion
The second important feature of the wealth maximisation criterion is that it
considers both the quantity and quality dimensions of benefits. At the same time,
it also incorporates the time value of money. The operational implication of the
uncertainty and timing dimensions of the benefits emanating from a financial
decision is that adjustments should be made in the cash-flow pattern, firstly, to
incorporate risk and, secondly, to make an allowance for differences in the timing
of benefits. The value of a stream of cash flows with value maximisation criterion
is calculated by discounting its element back to the present at a capitalisation
rate that reflects both time and risk. The value of a course of action must be
viewed in terms of its worth to those providing the resources necessary for its
undertaking. In applying the value maximisation criterion, the term value is used
in terms of worth to the owners, that is, ordinary shareholders. The
capitaIisation (discount) rate that is employed is, therefore, the rate that
reflects the time and risk preferences of the owners or suppliers of capital. As a
measure of quality (risk) and timing, it is expressed in decimal notation. A
discount rate of, say, 15 per cent is written as 0.15. A large capitalisation rate is
the result of higher risk and longer time period. Thus, a stream of cash flows that
is quite certain might be associated with a rate of 5 per cent, while a very risky
stream may carry a 15 per cent discount rate.
For the above reasons, the net present value maximisation is superior to the
profit maximisation as an operational objective. As a decision criterion, it involves
a comparison of value to cost. An action that has a discounted value-reflecting
both time and risk-that exceeds its cost can be said to create value. Such actions
should be undertaken. Conversely, actions, with less value than cost, reduce
wealth and should be rejected. In the case of mutually exclusive alternatives,
when only one has to be chosen the alternative with the greatest net present
value should be selected. In the words of Ezra Solomon,
The gross present worth of a course of action is equal to the capitalised
value of the flow of futUre expected benefit, discounted (or captialised) at a rate
which reflects their certainty or uncertainty. Wealth or net present worth is the
difference between gross present worth and the amount of capital investment
required to achieve the benefits being discussed. Any financial action which
creates wealth or which has a net present worth above zero is a desirable one
and should be undertaken. Any financial action which does not meet this test
should be rejected. If two or more desirable courses of action are mutually
exclusive (Le. if only one can be undertaken), then the decision should be to do
that which creates most wealth or shows the greatest amount of net present
worth.
Using Ezra Solomon's symbols and methods, the net present worth can
be calculated as shown below: .
(i) w= v- C (1.1)
Where W = Net present worth
V = Gross present worth
C = Investment (equity capital) required to acquire the asset or to purchase
the course of action
(ii) V = FJ K (1.2)
Where E = Size of future benefits available to the suppliers of the input capital
K = The capitalisation (discount) rate reflecting the quality
(certainty/uncertainty)and timing of benefits attached to E
(iii) E = G - (M + 1+ 1) (1.3)
Where G = Average future flow of gross annual earnings expected from the
course of action, before maintenance charges, taxes and interest and other prior
charges like preference dividend
M = Average annual reinvestment required to maintain G at the projected level
T= Expected annual outflow on account of taxes and other prior charges.
The operational objective of financial management is the maximisation of W in
Eq. (1.1). Alternatively, W can be expressed symbolically by a short-cut method
as in Eq. (1.4). Net present value (worth) or wealth is
A1 A2 A3
W = ------------ + ----------- +…+ --------------
(1.4)
2 3
(1+K) (1+K) (1+K)
where ~, A1 A2, ... An represents the stream of cash flows expected to occur
from a course of action over a period of time;
K is the appropriate discount rate to measure risk and timing; and
C is the initial outlay to acquire that asset or pursue the course of action.
It can, thus, be seen that in the value maximisation decision criterion, the time
value of money and handling of the risk as measured by the uncertainty of the
expected benefits is an integral part of the exercise. It is, moreover, a precise
and unambiguous concept, and therefore, an appropriate and operationally
feasible decision criterion for financial management decisions.
It would also be noted that the focus of financial management is on the value to
the owners or suppliers of equity capital. The wealth of the owners is reflected in
the market value of shares. So wealth maximisation implies the rnaxirnisation of
the market price of shares. In other words, maxirnisation of the market price of
shares is the operational ;substitute for value/wealth/net present value
rnaximisation as a decision criterion.
In brief, what is relevant is not the overall goal of a firm but a decision criterion,
which should guide the financial course of action. Profit EPS maxirnisation was
initially the generally accepted theoretical criterion for making efficient economic
decisions, using profit as an economic concept and defining profit rnaximisation
as a criterion for economic efficiency. In current financial literature, it has been
replaced by the wealth maxirnisation decision criterion because of the
shortcomings of the former as an operational criterion, as (j) It does not take
account of uncertainty of risk, (ij) it ignores the time value of money, and (ill) it is
ambiguous in its computation. Owing to these technical limitations, profit
maximisation cannot be applied in real world situations. Its modified form is the
value rnaximisation criterion. It is important to note that value maxirnisation is
simply extension of profit rnaxirnisation to a world that is uncertain and
multiperiod in nature. Where the time period is short and degree of uncertainty is
not great, value maxirnisation and profit rnaximisation amount to essentially the
same thing.
However, two important issues are related to the value/share price-
rnaximisation, namely, economic value added and focus on stakeholders
Economic Value Added (EVA) It is a popular measure currently being used
by several firrns to determine whether an existing/proposed investment positively
contributes to the owners'/shareholders' wealth. The EVA is equal to after-tax
operating profits of a firm less the cost of funds used to finance investments. A
positive EVA would increase owners' value/wealth. Therefore, only investments
with positive EVA would be desirable from the viewpoint of maximizing
shareholders' wealth. To illustrate, assuming an after-tax profit of Rs 40 crore
and associated costs of financing the investments of Rs 38 crore, the EVA = Rs 2
crore (Rs 40 crore - Rs 38 crore). With a positive EVA, the investment would add
value and increase the wealth of the owners and should be accepted. The
computation of the after-tax operating profits attributable to the investment under
consideration as well as the cost of funds used to finance it would, however,
involve numerous accounting and financial issues.
The merits of EVA are: (a) its relative simplicity and (b) its strong link with the
wealth rnaximisation of the owners. It prima facie exhibits a strong link to share
prices, that is, positive EVA is associated with increase in prices of shares and
vice versa. However, EVA is, in effect, a repackaged and well-marketed
application of the NPV technique of investment decision. But EVA is certainly a
useful tool for operationalising the owners' value rnaximisation goal, particularly
with respect to the investment decision. .
Focus on Stakeholders The shareholders wealth rnaximisation as the primary
goal notwithstanding, there is a broader focus in financial management to include
the interest of the stakeholders as well as the shareholders. The stakeholders
include employees; customers, suppliers, creditors and owners and others who
have a direct link to the firm. The implication of the focus on stakeholders is that
a firm should avoid actions detrimental to them through the transfer of their
wealth to the firm arid, thus, damage their wealth. The goal should be preserve
the well-being of the stakeholders and not to maximise it.
The focus on the stakeholders does not, however, alter the shareholders'
wealth maximisation goal. It tends to limit the firm's actions to preserve the
wealth of the stakeholders. The stakeholders view is considered part of its "social
responsibility" and is expected to provide maximum long term benefit to the
shareholders by maintaining positive stakeholders relationship which would
minimize stakeholder turnover, conflict and litigation. In brief, a firm can better
achieve its goal of shareholders' wealth maximisation with the cooperation of,
rather than conflict with, its other stakeholders.
Shareholder Orientation in India Traditionally, the corporate industrial sector
in India was
. dominated by group companies with close links with the promoter groups. Their
funding primarily was through institutional borrowings from public development
finance institutions like IFCI, ICICI, IDBI! and so on. There was preponderance
of loan capital in their financial structure and shareholders equity played a rather
marginal role. It was no wonder, therefore, that corporate India paid scant
attention to shareholders' wealth maximisation with few exceptions such as
Reliance Industries Ltd. In the post-90 liberalisation era, the goal of
shareholders' wealth maximisation has emerged almost at the centre-stage. The
main contributory factors have been (0 greater dependence on capital market,
(ii) growing importance of institutional investors, (iii) tax concessions/ incentives
to shareholders and (iv) foreign exposure.
With the gradual decline in the significance of the development/public
term/term lending institutions over the years and their disappearance from the
Indian financial scene recently (as a result of their conversion/proposed
conversion into banks) and the consequent emergence of the capital market as
the main source of corporate financing, shareholders' wealth maximisation is
emerging as the prime goal of corporate financial management. Secondly, as a
result of the institutionalisation of savings, institutional investors such as mutual
funds, insurance organisations, foreign institutional investors and so on
dominate the structure of the Indian capital market. To cater to the requirements
of these institutional investors, corporates are pursuing more shareholder -
friendly policies as reflected in their efforts to focus on shareholders' wealth
maximisation. Thirdly, the abolition of wealth tax on equity shares and other
financial assets coupled with tax. exemption on dividends in recent years has
provided an incentive to corporates to enhance share prices and, thus, focus on
shareholders' wealth. Finally, the family-owned corporate are also undergoing
major transformation. The scions of most business families are acquiring higher
professional education in India and abroad. With the foreign exposure, they also
appreciate the importance of shareholders' wealth. Thus, shareholder
orientation is unmistakably visible in the corporate India.
____________________________
CONCEPT OF TIME VALUE OF MONEY PRESENT
VALUE
1.0 OBJECTIVES
The objective is to understand the concept that money has a time value. The
notion that a rupee today is preferable to the same rupee in the future is intuitive
enough for most people to grasp. This can be grasped without the use of models
and mathematics. The principal of present value provides the backing for this and
enables us to calculate exactly how much a rupee some time in the future is
worth today. In this chapter we shall examine the following questions:
· What do we mean by time value of money?
· What is the basis for present value? What factors affect the timing of
cash flows and how does this affect the time value?
1.1 INTRODUCTION
The principles of present value also underlie most of what we do in Corporate
Finance by evaluating projects and valuation of company shares and a great
deal of personal finance and investment. The simplest tools in finance are often
the most powerful. Present value is a concept which shows that money has a
time value. It is an intuitive and simple concept, simple to calculate and can be
applied in a wide range of situations in corporate finance. We can use this
concept in buying a house, saving for a child's education, picking a project or
more complex situations like valuing a buyout of a company share. That money
has time value stems from the concept that the value of money gets eroded by
the concept of inflation. How often have we heard our elders say that a kilo of
rice was so cheap or that a house was so cheap and had they invested wisely it
might have been better? How often are clothes cheaper,education cheaper and
all the common essentials becoming dearer year after year? In the following
pages you will understand the concept and learn to apply .it on real life
examples.
1.2 DESCRIPTION
Dealing with Cash Flows at different points of time can be made easier using a
time line that shows both the value and timing of cash flows. The following
figure shows a cash flow of Rs 100 at the end of five years.
In the figure above '0' time on the time line depicts now, at the present
moment or today. Thus a cash flow or rupees received by you today has the
same value today. Thus it need not be adjusted for time value. Now a distinction
should be made between a period in time and a point in time. The portion of the
time line between 0 and 1 and 2 and 3, etc. refers to period 1 and period 3 which
in this example is the first year and third year. The cash flow that occurs in a
point in time -1- refers to the cash flow that occurs at the end of period 1. Finally
the discount rate which is 10 per cent in this example is specified in each period
of the time line and may be different for each period. Had the cash flows been
at
0 1 yr Rs 100 2 yrs Rs 100 3 yrs Rs 100 4 yrs Rs 100 5 yrs Rs 100
10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
Fig 1 (a) A Time Line for Cash Flows- End of Each Period
0 Rs 100 1 yr Rs 100 2 yrs Rs 100 3 yrs Rs 100 4 yrs Rs 100 5 yrs
10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
Fig 1.1(b) A Time Line for cash Flows- Beginning of Each Period
the beginning of each year instead of the end of each year, the time line would
be as redrawn above. Please note that the beginning of year 2 is the end of
year 1. It depends how you look at it.
Positive and negatives cash flows: Cash flows can neither be negative or
positive.Cash inflows are called Positive Cash Flows and Csh outflows are
called Negative Cash flows.
Notations
Notation Meaning
PV Present Value
FV Future Value
Cf Cash flow at the end of period t
A Annuity-Constant Cash Flows over several periods
r Discount Rate
g Expected growth rate in cash flows
n Number of periods over which cash flows are
received or paid
3.3 COMMON SENSE APPROACH TO PRESENT VALUE
A cash flow in the future is worthless than a. similar cash flow today
because:
● People prefer present consumption to future consumption.
● People would have to be offered more in the future to give up present
consumption.
● Due to inflation the value of money/currency depreciates or erodes over a
period of time. This happens due to inflation. The greater the inflation the
greater is the erosion in the value of the rupee today and in the future.
● Due to the uncertainty of receiving the cash flow in the future the value of
the cash flow in the future reduces further. This means there is a risk
associated with receiving the cash flow in future and this reduces the, value
associated with the cash flow. The greater the risk the greater the erosion in
value.
The process by which future cash flows are adjusted to reflect these factors is
called discounting, and the magnitude of these factors is reflected in the
discount rate.
What is Discount Rate?
The discount rate is a rate at which present and future cash flows are traded off.
It incorporates
1. The preference for currrent consumption ( greater preference
2. Expected inflation (higher inflation _ higher discount rate).
3. The uncertainty in the future cash flows (higher risk ___ higher discount
rate).
A higher discount rate will lead to a lower present value for future cash flows.
1.4 TRADE OFF IN REAL CONSUMPTION OVER TIME
Although individuals prefer present consumption to future consumption,
the degree of this preference varies across individuals. This trade off
between present consumption (Co) and future consumption (C1) can be
explained as follows. In the real world people can get the same amount of
money in each period and they can either consume it or save it or lend it. A
may choose to consume the whole amount, B may consume more money by
borrowing and C may consume less and save and lend the remaining
portion. If the preference for current consumption is strong then we have to
offer more in terms of future. consumption to give up current consumption.
Thus there is always a trade off which is always reflected by the high-real
rate of return or discount rate. If the preference for current consumption is
weak then a person can settle for a lower real rate of return or discount rate.
The assumption here is that any money. or wealth saved will always be lent
out as because it can earn a return for the saver. The story of the
grasshopper and the ant reflects this. The grasshopper may make merry and
use all of his money whereas the ant may save to enjoy during winter. Many
an old couple enjoy their retirement because they have intuitively used
the concept of time value of money properly and when their earning capacity
goes down they can enjoy the fruits of their savings ans investment
decisions.
1.5 THE CALCULATION OF PRESENT VALUE
The process of discounting future cash flows converts them into cash flows in
present value terms. Conversely the process of compounding converts present
cash flows into future cash flows.
Cash flows at different points to time cannot be compared and aggregated
unless they are all brought to the same point in time before we can compare or
aggregate them.
There are five types of cash flows:
1. Simple cash flows
2. Annuities
3. Growing Annuities
4. Perpetuities and
5. Growing Perpetuities
1. Simple cash flows
A simple cash flow is a single cash flow in a specified future time period. On
a time line
CF t = Cash Flow at Time t
0 t
This cash flow can be discounted back to the present discount rate that reflects
the uncertainty of the cash flow. Conversely,cash flows in the present can be
compounded to arrive at an expected future cash flow.
Discounting: is the process by which a cash flow which is expected to occur in
the future is brought to its present value.
Compounding: is the process by which a cash flow today is converted into its
expected future value.
Calculating Present Value
The present value of Rs 1,00,000 a year from now must be less than Rs
1,00,000 today. Thus the present value of the delayed payoff can be found out
by multiplying the payoff with the discount factor which is less than 1. If the
discount factor is more than 1 a rupee today would be worthless than a rupee
tomorrow. If C1 denotes the expected payoff at period 1, one year hence then
Present Value (PV) = Discount factor x C1
Or In the example earlier
Present Value (PV) = __CF1__
(1 + r)
Thus the discount factor is the value received today of Rs 1 received in the
future. It is usually expressed as a reciprocal of 1 plus a rate of return.
Discount factor = 1
(1 + r)
Similarly you have a compounding factor. To calculate discount factor and
compound factors we have tables to aid us in complex calculations. These
are
given as an appendix to the chapter below. The rate of return r is the reward
that investors demand for accepting a delayed payment.
You are considering investing in a house or property worth Rs 4,00,000
today and your real estate advisor has estimated that the cost would go upto
Rs 5,00,000 in a year if you sold it. That is not the only way you can earn
money as you have various investment options. You can invest in Public
Provident Fund with an interest rate of 9 per cent. How much would you have;
to invest in PPF to receive Rs 5,00,000 after a year. That is easy as the
interest rate is 9 per cent, you would have to invest Rs 5,00,000/1.09, which is
Rs 458715.59. Thus the building investment is a better option as you get a
higher rate of return. However you must bear in mind that the real estate
investment has a higher risk in terms of variability of return. Thus risk is
related to return whereas the PPF option has a lower risk and lower return.
To calculate present value, we discount the expected payoff by the rate
of return offered by equivalent investment alternatives in the capital or
financial! markets. This rate of return is often referred to as the discount
rate, hurdle rate or opportunity cost of capital. It is called opportunity cost
because it is the return forgone by investing in the project rather than
investing in securities. In our example the opportunity cost was 9 per cent.
Present value was obtained by dividing Rs 5,00,000 by 1.09.
PV = Discount factor x C1 = _1____x C1
1+r
= 5,00,000 = Rs 458715.59
1.09
3. Net Present Value
Let us suppose that your property is worth Rs 458715.59 today but you
committed Rs 4,00,000 initial outgo to purchase the property. So your NET
PRESENT VALUE is Rs 58715.59. Net Present Value is found by subtracting the
required investment
NPV= PV - Required Investment = Rs 4,58,715.59 - Rs 4,00,000
= Rs 58,715.59
In other words your investment in the property is worth more than it costs - it
makes a net contribution to value. The formula for calculating NPV can be written
as
C1
NPV= C 0 +_____
1+r
Remember that Co the cash flow at time 0 (that is today), will usually be a
negative number. In other words, Co is an investment and therefore a cash
outflow. In our example Co is - Rs 4,00,000.
Relation of Risk to Present Value
In many of our calculations we feel it is enough to compare the present values
and aggregates, however we make the unrealistic assumption of assigning the
same level of risk and only taking decisions based on the comparative returns of
alternative means of adjustments. The real estate advisor or property advisor
cannot be sure about the return in the market. If the future value of this property
is risky our calculation is wrong. Public Provident Fund is certainly less risky as it
is akin to Government security. Thus if you were asking someone else to invest
in this property along with you they may not agree to give you the present value
amount but something less than that. Thus we invoke another financial principal
that a safe rupee is worth more than a risky one. Thus we do not use the same
discount factor while comparing alternative investment avenues. The discount
rate for PPF may be 9 per cent OR 0.09 but the discount rate for the building
property may be 11 per cent or 0.11. Only after the present values are calculated
using these two different discount rates is the best investment avenue or project
decided.
Most investors avoid risk when they can do so without sacrificing return.
However, the concepts of present value and the opportunity cost of capital still
make sense for risky investments. It is still proper to discount the payoff by the
rate of return offered by an equivalent investment. But we have to think of
Expected payoffs and the expected rates of returns on other investments. You
will learn more about expected payoffs when you do Capital Budgeting Later.
For now it will be enough if you think of an expected payoff and the expected
rates of returns on other investments. You will learn more about expected
payoffs when you do Capital Budgeting Later. For now it will be enough if you
think of an expected payoff as a realistic forecast,neither pessimistic nor
optimistic.
Concept check: India has a low savings rate as compared to Japan. This
leads to greater budget and trade deficits. How does a low saving rate affect
discount rates?
Effect of Inflation on Discount Rate: The effect of inflation on present value is
evident because it reduces the purchasing power of future cash flows. This
adjustment reduces the value of future cash flows, but these real cash flows, will
have to be reduced further to reflect real returns (i.e. the trade offs between
current and future consumption) and any uncertainty associated with the cash
flows to arrive at the present value. Thus, an investor who expects to make 10.5
million Mexican pesos a year from now will have to reduce this expected cash
flow to arrive at the present value. Thus, an investor who expects 1 million Italian
Lire a year from now will have to reduce this expected cash flow to 1 reflect the
expected inflation rate in Mexico. If that inflation rate is 25 per cent,for instance,
the real cash flow will be only 0.8 million Italian lire.
The general formula for converting nominal cash flows at a future period ‘t' to real
cash flows is Real Cash Flow = (Nominal cash flow)/(1 + inflation rate).
Effect of Risk on Discount Rate: Although both the preference for current
consumption, and expected inflation affect the present value of all cash flows not
all cash flows are equally predictable. A promised cash might not be delivered
for a number of reasons: the promisor (lnterest and investment not received as
company winds up) might default on the payment- the promisee might not be
around to receive payment - (might have died) or some other contingency or
some happening may intervene to prevent the promised payment or to reduce it.
The greater the uncertainty associated with a cash flow in the future, the higher
the discount rate used to calculate the present value of this cash flow will be and
the present value of that cash flow will consequently be lower.
Example
You have decided to invest in a construction of an office building as it is worth
more than it costs- it has positive net present value. To calculate how much it is
worth- would have to pay to achieve the same pay off by investing directly in
securities. The project's future value is equal to its future income discounted at
the rate of return offered by these securities.
We can say this another way. Our building venture is worth undertaking
because its rate of return exceeds its cost of capital. The rate of return is simply
the profit as a proportion of the initial outlay.
Return = Profit/Investment =(5,00,000-4,30,000)/4,30,000
=(70,000) /(4,30,000)
= 0.163 about 16 per cent
The cost of capital is once again the return foregone by not investing in
securities. If the office building is as risky as investing in stock market securities
where the expected return is 14 per cent then the return forgone is 14 per cent.
Since the 16 per cent return on the office building exceeds the 14 per cent
opportunity cost, you should go ahead with the project.
Hence we have two equivalent decision rules for capital investment.
· Net present value rule. Accept investments that have positive net present
values.
· Rate of return rule. Accept investments that offer rates of return in excess of
their opportunity costs of capital
1.6 DISCOUNTING A SIMPLE CASH FLOW - WHY IT IS IMPORTANT
Discounting a cash flow converts it into present value rupees and enables the
user to do several things. First, once cash flows are converted into present value
rupees, they can be aggregated and compared. Second, if present values are
estimated correctly the user should be indifferent between the future cash flow
and the present value of the cash flow.
Other things remaining equal, the present value of a cash flow will decrease as
the discount rate increases and continue to decrease the further into the future
the cash flow occurs. Thus present value is a decreasing function of the discount
rate.
1.7COMPOUNDING A CASH FLOW - WHY IT IS IMPORTANT
Current cash flows can be moved into the future by compounding the cash flow
at the appropriate discount rate.
The future value of a simple cash flow is
Future Value of a Simple Cash Flow = CFo (1+ r)'
where CF o = Cash Flow Now ,r = Discount Rate
Again, the compounding effect increases with both the discount rate and the
compounding period.
Compounding. is the process by which cash flows are converted from present
value to future value rupees.
Ibbotson and Sinquefield's Study
As the length of the holding period is extended, small differences in discount
rates can lead to large differences in future value. In a study of returns on stocks
and bonds between 1926 and 1992, Ibbotson and Sinquefield found that stocks
on the average made 12.4 per cent Treasury Bonds made 5.2 percent, and
Treasury Bills made 3.6 per cent. Assuming that these returns continue into the
future, the table below provides the future value of dollar 100 invested n each
category at the end off a number of holding periods - 1 year, 5 years, 10 years,
20 years, 30 years and 40 years.
The differences in future value from investing at these different rates of return
are small for short compounding periods( such as one year) but become larger
as the compounding period is extended. For instance, with a 40 year time
horizon, the future value of investing in stocks, at an average return of 12.4 per
cent, is more than 12 times larger than the future value of investing in Treasury
bonds at an average return of 5.2 per cent and more than 25 times the future
value of investing in Treasury Bills at an average return of 3.6 per cent.
Future Value of Investments - Asset Classes
Holding Period Stocks T. Bonds T. Bills
1 112.40 105.20 103.60
5 179.40 128.85 119.34
10 321.86 166.02 142.43
20 1035.92 275.62 202.86
30 3334.18 457.59 288.93
40 10731.30 759.68 411.52
Concept Check
Most pension funds allow individuals to decide where their pension funds
will be invested- stocks (equity), bonds (debt) or money market accounts,
etc. Where would you choose to invest your pension fund? Do you think
your allocation should change as you get older ? Why?
The Rule of 72- A shortcut to estimating the Compounding effect
In a pinch, the rule of 72 provides an approximate answer to the question
"How quickly will this amount double in value?" by dividing 72 by the
discount on interest rate used in the analysis. Thus, a cash flow growing at 6
per cent will, double in value in approximately 12 years, while a cash flow
growing at 9 percent will double in value in approximately 8 years.
Effective Interest Rate
This is the true rate of interest, taking into account the compounding effects
of more frequent interest payments.
The Frequency of Discounting and Compounding
The frequency of compounding affects both the future and present values of
cash flows. In the examples above, the Cash flows were assumed to be
discounted and compounded annually - that is, interest payments and income
were computed at the end of each year, based on the balance at the beginning
of each year. In some cases however the interest may be computed more
frequently, such as on a monthly or semi annual basis. In these cases, the
present and future values may be very different from those computed on annual
basis; the stated interest rate on an annual basis can deviate significantly from
the effective or true interest rate. The effective interest rate can be computed as
follows.
Effective Interest Rate= (1+Stated Annual Interest Rate) n
--------------------------------------------------- - 1
N
Where N=number of compounding periods (2=semi annual;12 =monthly)
For Instance, a 10 per cent annual interest rate, if there is semi annual
compounding works out to an effective interest rate of
Effective Interest Rate = (1.052 - 1) =(1.1025 - 1.0) = 10.25 per cent
As compounding becomes continuous, the effective interest rate can be
computed as follows:
Effective Interest Rate = (exp )r - 1
where exp = exponential function
r = stated annual interest rate
The Table below provides the effective rates as a function of the compoundin!
g
frequency.
Effect of Compounding Frequency on Effective Interest Rates
Frequency Rate(% ) T Formula Effective Annual
Rate(%)
Annual 10 1 .10 10
Semi-Annual 10 2 (1 +.10/2)2 -1 10.25
Monthly 10 12 (1 +.10112)12 - 1 10.47,
Daily 10 365
(1 +.10/365)365 -
1
10.5156
Continuous 10 continuous e,10 - 1 1 O5171
As you can see, as compounding becomes more frequent, the effective rate
increases, and the present value of future cash flows decreases.
For example the home loans which various companies offer you require
monthly repayments and may have monthly compounding. Thus the interest rate
quoted to you may be too low and actually quite deceptive. To get the effective
Annual rate you should use the formula above and see what the actual effective
interest rate is.
Annuity
An annuity is a constant cash flow occurring at regular intervals of time.
Annuities
An annuity is a constant cash flow that occurs at regular intervals at fixed period
of time. Defining A to be the annuity time, the time line for an annuity may be
drawn as follows:
A A A
A
0 1 2 3
4
An annuity can occur at the end of each period, as in this time line, or at the,;
beginning of each period.
Present Value of an end-of-the period annuity
The present value of an annuity can be calculated by taking each cash flow and
discounting it back to the present and then adding up the present values.
Alternatively, a formula can be used in the calculation. In the case of annuities
that occur at the end of each period, this formula can be written as
(1- 1 )
PV of an Annuity =PV(A, r, n)=A ( (1+r)n )
( r )
where A = Annuity
r = Discount Rate
n = Number of years
Accordingly the notation used internationally for the present value of an.
annuity is PV(A, r, n).
Suppose you start a rent-a-car business and want to buy an automobile.
You have choice of buying the car cash down for Rs 400,000 or paying Rs
90,000 a year for five years for the same car. What would you rather do, if the
opportunity cost is 12% then calculate your decision?
PV of Rs 90,000 each year for the next 5 years
1
( 1 - -------)
( 5)
= 90,000 ( (1.12) = 3,24,429.75
( 0.12)
Obviously it is better to take the auto loan rather than pay cash down and
naturally no auto loan company or bank will come up with such a scheme. The
present values of your instalments versus cash down will always be higher but if
you do not have the money right now or you can get a higher return by using this
loan then it is worthwhile taking the loan. Thus you will also have to look 'into
your inflows by hiring out the carls in your rent-a-car business.
When the present values of your instalment payments exceed the cash down
price it is better to pay cash down and acquire the asset.
Alternatively above you could have discounted each instalment separately land
added up the present values for all five and arrived at the same figure. Nowadays
spreadsheets like excel are used to calculate the values of different annuities or
using advanced programme calculators which all insurance company agents use.
Thus using the formulas programmed in the spreadsheet and changing the
variables like amount, time and rate of interest/discount factor you can calculate
the present value of different annuities and take financial decisions both personal
and commercial.
Concept Check
Often you have a choice of buying an asset like a car, computer, plane,
etc. Is it appropriate to compare the present value of just your lease
payments to your purchase price? Why or why not?
Future Value of End-of-the-Period Annuities
n some cases, an individual may plan to set aside a fixed annuity each period for
a number of periods and will want to know how much he or she will have at the
end of the period. The future value of an end-of-the-period annuity can be
calculated as follows
FV of an annuity = FV(A, r ,n)= A{ (1+r)n - 1}
r
Thus the standard notation widely practiced for Future Value of an annuity is FV(
A, r , n)
Concept Check
Knowing the future value formula can you calculate the future value of Rs 5000
tax exempted PPF you deposit every year for twenty years? Or for forty yean
Assume you start at age 25 years.
If it is taxed obviously you have a lower return.
Juggling the above formula if you know the future value of what you have
repay and you want to set aside a fixed sum even year so that you can repay the
sum you can calculate the annuity.
Thus Annuity given future value - which means you are given the future value
and are looking for the annuity - A (FV, r, n) can be calculated as follow
Annuity given the future value= A (FV, r, n) = FV{__r__}
( 1+r)n -1
Balloon Repayment Loan: A balloon Repayment loan refers to a Ioan on
which only interest is paid for the life of the Ioan, and the-entire principal is paid
at the end of the loan's life. Companies that borrow money using balloon
repayment loans like bonds or debentures often set aside money in sinking funds
during the life of the loan to ensure they have enough at maturity to pay the
principal on the loan or the face value of the bonds. Thus any company will have
to set aside a fixed amount each year till the date of redeeming of bonds/
debentures to avoid defaulting on repayment to bondholders or debenture
holders. The size of the sinking fund will vary with the change in interest rate.
Sinking Fund: A sinking fund is a fund to which firms make annual contributions
in order to have enough funds to meet a large financial liability in future.
Concept Check
Do Insurance Companies and Pension Funds provide for sinking funds? When
insurance is only a contingent/uncertain liability why do these companies also
provide for sinking funds?
Effect of Annuities at the Beginning of Each Year
The annuities we talked about till now are end of the period cash flows. Both the
present and future values are affected if the cash flow occurs at the beginning of
each period instead of the end. To illustrate this effect, consider an annuity of Rs
100 at the end of each year for the next four years,with a discount rate of 10%.
Rs 100 Rs 100 Rs 100 Rs
100
0 10% 1 10% 2 10% 3 10%
4
0 1 2 3 4
Rs 100 Rs 100 Rs 100 Rs 100 Rs 100
Fig 1.4
Because the first of these annuities occurs right now, and the remaining cash flows
take the form of an end-of-the-period annuity over three years. The present value of
this annuity can be written as follows:
PV of Rs 100 at beginning = 100 + 100[1- 1___
3
of each of next four year 1.10__
0.10
In general, the present value of a beginning – of- a- period annuity over an year
can be written as follows
PV of Period Annuities at beginning = A + A [1-__1_ ]
of each of next n years (1+r) n-1
_________
r
This present value will be higher than the present value of an equivalen to
annuity at the end of each period.
The future value of a beginning-of-a-period annuity typically can be estimated
by allowing for one additional period of compounding for each cash flow:
PV of Period Annuities at beginning = A (1+r) (1+r) n-1
of each of next n years _________
r
This future value will be higher than the future value of an equivalent annuity at
the end of each period. Thus if you invest your annuity at the beginning of each
year instead of the end of each year, your future value will be higher.
Growing Annuities
A growing annuity is a cash flow that grows at a constant rate for a specified
period of time. If A is the current cash flow, and g is the expected growth rate,;
the time line for a growing annuity is as follows: I
A(1+ g)1 A(1+ g) 2 A(1+ g)3 A(1+
g)4
0 1 2 3 4
Note that to qualify as a growing annuity, the growth rate in each period ha~ to
be the same as the growth rate in the prior period.
The Process of Discounting a Growing Annuity
The present value of a growing annuity can be estimated by using the following
formula:
PV of a Growing Annuity = A(1+g) { 1 _ (1 + g)" }
(1+r)"
r – 9
The present value of a growing annuity can be estimated in all cases but one -
if the growth rate is equal to the discount rate. In that case, the preseni value is
equal to the nominal sums of the annuities over the period, without the growth
effect.
PV of a Growing Annuity for n years (when r = g) = nA
It is important to note that the expanded formulation works even when th~
growth rate is greater than the discount rate.
Perpetuity
A perpetuity is a constant cash flow paid (or received) at regular time intervals
forever.
Thus a lifetime pension can be considered as perpetually or rentals received
from exploitation of land which is passed on from generation to generation.
The present value of a perpetuity can be written as
PV of Perpetuity = A
r
A Console Bond is a bond that has no maturity and pays a fixed coupon (rate of
interest).
Assume that you have a 6 per cent coupon console bond. The original face
value = Rs 1000. The current value of this bond if the interest rate is 9 per cent
is as follows.
Current value of Console Bond = Rs 6010.09 = Rs 667
The value of a Console bond will be equal to its face value only if the coupon
rate is equal to the interest rate. In this case Rs 1000, Le. 60/0.06
Growing Perpetuties
A growing perpetuity is a cash flow that is expected to grow at a constant rate.
forever. The present value of a growing perpetuity can be-written as
-
PV of Growing Perpetuity = C___
(r - g)
A growing perpetuity is a constant cash flow, growing at a constant rate, and
paid at regular time intervals forever.
Although a growing annuity and a growing perpetuity share several features,
the fact that a growing perpetuity lasts forever puts constraints on the growth
rate. It has to be less than the discount rate for the formula to work.
Recommended Readings
Financial Management By Khan & Jain
CAPITAL EXPENDITURE DECISIONS
OBJECTIVES
This chapter provides a broad overview of the field of project appraisal and
capital budgeting. It is divided into five sections as follows:
· Capital expenditures: importance and difficulties
· Phases of capital budgeting
· Levels of decision-making
· Facets of project analysis
· Feasibility study: a schematic diagram
· Objectives of capital budgeting
CAPITAL EXPENDITURE DECISIONS
Capital Expenditures: Importance and Difficulties
Importance
Capital expenditure decisions often represent the most important decisions taken
by a firm. Their importance stems from three inter-related reasons:
Long-term effects: The consequences of capital expenditure decisions extend far
into the future. The scope of current manufacturing activities of a firm is
governed largely by capital expenditures in the past. Likewise current capital
expenditure decisions provide the framework for future activities. Capital
investment decisions have an enormous bearing on the basic character of a firm.
Irreversibility: The market for used capital equipment in general is iIl-
organised. Further, for some types of capital equipments,custom made to
meet specific requirement, the market may virtually be non-existent. Once
such an equipment is acquired, reversal of decision may mean scrapping
the capital equipment. Thus, a wrong capital investment decision, often
cannot be reversed without incurring a substantial loss
● Substantial outlays: Capital expenditures usually involve substantial
outlays. An integrated steel plant, for example, involves an outlay of
several thousand millions. Capital costs tend to increase with
advanced.
Difficulties
While capital expenditure decisions are extremely important, they also post
difficulties which stem from three principal sources: .
● Measurement problems: Identifying and measuring the costs and benefits
of a capital expenditure proposal tends to be difficult. This is more so when
a capital expenditure has a bearing on some other activities of the firm
(like cutting into the sales of some existing product) or has some intangible
consequences (like improving the morale of workers).
● Uncertainty: A capital expenditure decision involves costs and benefits that
extend far into future. It is impossible to predict exactly what will happen in
future. Hence, there is usually a great deal of uncertainty characterising the
costs and benefits of a capital expenditure decision.
● Temporal spread: The costs and benefits associated with a capital
expenditure decision are spread out over a long period of time, usually 10-20
years for industrial projects and 20-50 years for infrastructural projects. Such
a temporal spread creates some problems in estimating discount rates and
establishing equivalences.
PHASES OF CAPITAL BUDGETING
Capital budgeting is a complex process which may be divided into five broad
phases: planning, analysis, selection, implementation, and review. Exhibit
11.1portrays the relationship among these phases. The solid arrows reflect the
main sequence: planning precedes analysis; analysis precedes selection; and
so on. The dashed arrows indicate that the phases of capital budgeting are not
related in a simple, sequential manner. Instead, there are several feedback
loops reflecting the iterative nature of the process.
Planning
The planning phase of a firm's capital budgeting process is concerned with the
articulation of its broad investment strategy and the generation and preliminary
screening of project proposals. The investment strategy of the firm delineates
the broad areas or types of investments the firm plans to undertake. This
provides the framework which shapes, guides, and circumscribes the
identification of individual project opportunities.
Exhibit 11.1 Capital Budgeting Process
Once a project proposal is identified, it needs to be examined. To begin with, a
preliminary project analysis is done. A prelude to the full blown feasibility study,
this exercise is meant to assess (i) whether the project is prima facie worthwhile
to justify a feasibility study and (ii) What aspects of the project are critical to its
viability and hence warrant an in-depth investigation.
Analysis
If the preliminary screening suggests that the project is prima facie worthwhile,
detailed analysis of the marketing, technical, financial, economic, and ecological
aspects is undertaken. The questions and issues raised in such a detailed
analysis are described in the following section. The focus of this phase of capital
expenditure decisions is on gathering, preparing, and summarising relevant
information about various project proposals which are being considered for
inclusion in the capital budget. Based on the information developed in this
analysis, the stream of costs and benefits associated with the project can be
defined.
Selection
Selection follows, and often overlaps, analysis. It addresses the question-Is the
project worthwhile? A wide range of appraisal criteria have been suggested to
judge the worthwhileness of a project. They are divided into two broad categories,
viz., non-discounting criteria and discounting criteria. The principal non-discounting
criteria are the payback period and the accounting rate of return. The key
discounting criteria are the net present value, the internal rate of return, and the
benefit cost ratio. The selection rules associated with these criteria are as
follows:
________________________________________________________________
_
Criterion Accept Reject
Payback period(PBP) PBP< target period PBP> Target period
Accounting rate of return(ARR) ARR>target rate ARR<Target
rate
Net present value(NPV) NPV>0 NPV<0
Internal rate of return(IRR) IRR>cost of capital IRR< cost of capital
Benefit cost ratio(BCR) BCR>1 BCR<1
________________________________________________________________
_
To apply the various appraisal criteria suitable cut-off values (hurdle rate target
rate, and cost of capital) have to be specified. These essentially a function of
the mix of financing and the level of project risk. While the former can be defined
with relative ease, the latter truly tests the ability of the project evaluator. Indeed
despite a wide range of tools and techniques for risk analysis (sensitivity
analysis, scenario analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, decision tree analysis
portfolio theory, capital asset pricing model, and so on), risk analysis remains the
most intractable part of the project evaluation exercise.
Implementation
The implementation phase for an industrial project, which involves setting of
manufacturing facilities, consists of several stages: (i) project and engineering
designs, (ii) negotiations and contracting, (iii) construction, (iv) training, and (v)
plant commissioning. What is done in these stages is briefly described below
_
_______________________________________________________________
_
Stages Concerned with
Project and engineering designs Site probing and prospecting, preparation
of blueprint and plant designs , plant
engineering, selection of specific
machineries and equipment.
Negotiations and contracting Negotiating and drawing up of legal
contracts with respect to project financing,
acquisition of technology, construction of
building and civil works, provision of
utilities, supply of machinery and
equipment, marketing arrangements, etc.
Construction Site preparation, construction of
buildings and civil works, erection
and installation of machinery and
equipment.
Training Training of engineers, technicians, and
workers. (This can proceed
simultaneously along with the
construction work)
Plant commissioning Start up of the plant. (This is a brief but
commissioning is technically crucial
stage in the project development cycle.)
Translating an investment proposal into a concrete project is a complex time-
consuming, and risk-fraught task. Delays in implementation,which is common,
can lead to substantial cost overruns. For expeditious implementation at a
reasonable cost, the following are helpful.
1. Adequate formulation of projects: A major reason for delay is inadequate
formulation of projects. Put differently, if necessary homework in terms of
preliminary studies and comprehensive and detailed formulation of the project
is not done, many surprises and shocks are likely to Spring on the way.
Hence, the need for adequate formulation of the project cannot be over-
emphasised.
2. Use of the principle of responsibility accounting : Assigning specific
responsibilities to project managers for completing the project within the
defined time frame and cost limits is helpful in expeditious execution and cost
control.
3. Use of network techniques: For project planning and control two basic
techniques are available - PERT (Programme Evaluation Review Technique)
and CPM (Critical Path Method). These techniques have, of late, merged and
are being referred to by a common terminology, that is network techniques.
With the help of these techniques, monitoring becomes easier.
Review
Once the project is commissioned the review phase has to be set in motion.
Performance review should be done periodically to compare actual performance
with projected performance. A feedback device is useful in several ways: (i) It
throws light on how realistic were the assumptions underlying the project; (ii)
It provides a documented log of experience that is highly valuable in future
decision-making; (iii) It suggests corrective action to be taken in the light of
actual performance; (iv) It helps in uncovering judgemental biases; (v) It induces
a desired caution among project sponsors.
LEVELS OF DECISION-MAKING
Operating Administrative
Strategic
decisions decisions decision
Where is the decision Lower level Middle level Top level
taken management management
management
How structured is the Routine Semi-structured Unstructured
decision
What is the level of Minor resource Moderate resource Major
resource
resource commitment commitment commitment commitment
What is the time horizon Short-term Medium term Long-term
The three levels (operating, administrative, and strategic) of decision making can
be readily applied to capital expenditure budgeting decision. Examples are given
below:
Operating capital budgeting decision : Minor office equipment
Administrative capital budgeting decision : Balancing equipment
Strategic capital budgeting decision : Diversification project
While the methods and techniques covered in this book are applicable to all
levels of capital budgeting decision. Our discussion will mainly be oriented
towards administrative and strategic budgeting decisions.
Project Appraisal and Control techniques
PROFITABILITY STUDY-VARIOUS FACTS OF PROJECT
ANALYSIS
The important facets of project analysis are:
· Market analysis
· Technical analysis
· Financial analysis
· Economic analysis
· Ecological analysis
Market Analysis
Market analysis is concern with primarily two questions:
· What would be the aggregate demand of the proposed product/service in
future
· What would be the market share of the project under appraisal?
To answer the above question, the market analyst requires a wide
variety
of information and appropriate forecasting methods. The kinds of information
required are:
● Consumption trends in the past and the present consumption
● Past and present supply position
● Production possibilities and constraints
● Import and exports
● Structure of competition
● Cost structure
● Elasticity of demand
● Consumer behaviour, innovations, motivations, attitudes, references and
requirements
● Distribution channels and marketing policies in useful
● Administrative, technical and legal constraints
Technical Analysis
Analysis of the technical and engineering aspects of a project needs to be done
continually when a project is formulated. Technical analysis seeks to determine
whether the prerequisites for the successful commissioning of the Project have
been considered and reasonably good choices have been made with respect to
location, size, process, etc. The important questions raised in technical
analysis are:
· Whether the preliminary tests and studies have been done or provided
for?
· Whether the availability of raw materials, power, and other inputs has
been established?
· Whether the selected scale of operation is optimal?
· Whether the production process chosen is suitable?
· Whether the equipment and machines chosen are appropriate?
· Whether the auxiliary equipments and supplementary engineering
works
have been provided for ?
· Whether provision has been made for the treatment of effluents?
· Whether the proposed layout of the site, buildings, and plant is sound?
· Whether work schedules have been realistically drawn up?
· Whether the technology proposed to be employed is appropriate from
the social point of view?
Financial Analysis
Financial analysis seeks to ascertain whether the proposed project will be
financially viable in the sense of being able to meet the burden of servicing debt
and whether the proposed project will satisfy the return expectations of those
who provide the capital. The aspects which have to be looked into while
conducting financial appraisal are:
· Investment outlay and cost of project
· Means of financing
· Cost of capital
· Projected profitability
· Break-even point
· Cash flows of the project
· Investment worthwhileness judged in terms of various criteria of merit
· Projected financial position
· Level of risk
Economic Analysis
Economic analysis, also referred to as social cost benefit analysis, is concerned
with judging a project from the larger social point of view. In such an
evaluation the focus is on the social costs and benefits of a project which may
often be different from its monetary costs and benefits. The questions sought
to be answered in social cost benefits analysis are:
● What are the direct economic benefits and costs of the project
measured in terms of shadow (efficiency) prices and not in terms of
market prices?
● What would be the impact of the project on the distribution of income
in the society?
● What would be the impact of the project on the level of savings and
investment in the society?
● What would be the contribution of the project towards the fulfillment of
certain merit wants like self-sufficiency, employment, and social
order?
Ecological Analysis
In recent years, environmental concerns have assumed a great deal of
significance-and rightly so. Ecological analysis should be done particularly
for major projects which have significant ecological implications like power
plants and irrigation schemes, and environmental-polluting industries (like
bulk drugs, chemicals, and leather processing-). The key questions r~sed
in ecological analysis are:
. What is the likely damage caused by the project to the environment?
. What is the cost of restoration measures required to ensure that the
damage to the environment is contained within acceptable limits?
Exhibit 11.2 summarises the key issues considered indifferent types of
analysis:
Exhibit 11.2 Key Issues in Project Analysis
Market Analysis ________Potential Market
Market Share
Technical Analysis _________Technical Viability
Sensible Choices
Financial Analysis ___________Risk Return
Economics Analysis ___________Benefits and Cost in shadow Prices
Other Impact
Ecological Analysis _________ Environmental Damage
Restoration Measures
Feasibility Study: A Schematic Diagram
We have looked at the five broad phases of capital budgeting and
examined the key facets of project analysis. The feasibility study is
concerned with the first three phases of capital budgeting, viz., planning,
analysis, and selection (evaluation) and involves market, technical,
financial, economic, and ecological analysis.
Objectives of Capital Budgeting
Financial theory, in general, rests on the premise that the goal of
financial management (which subsumes investment decision-making)
should be to maximise the present wealth of the firm's equity
shareholders. For a firm whose equity shares are actively traded on the
stock market, the wealth of the equity shareholders is reflected in the
market value of the equity shares. Hence, the goal of financial
management for such firms should be to maximise the market value of
equity shares.
The pursuit of the welfare of equity shareholders is justified on the
grounds that it contributes to an efficient allocation of capital in the
economy. The bases for allocation of savings in the economy are
expected return and risk. Since equity share prices are based on
expected return and risk, efforts to maximise equity share prices would
result in an efficient allocation of resources. Another justification may be
provided for the goal of shareholder wealth maximisation.
Equity shareholders provide the venture (risk) capital required to start
a business firm and appoint the management of the firm indirectly
through the board of directors. Hence, it behoves on corporate
managements to promote the welfare of equity shareholders.
What about a public sector firm the equity stock of which, being fully
owned, by the government, is not traded on the stock market? In such a
case, the goal of financial management should be to maximise the
present value of the stream of equity returns. Of course, in determining
the present value of the stream of equity returns, an appropriate
discount rate has to be applied. A similar observation may be made with
respect to other companies whose equity shares are either not traded or
very poorly traded.
Alternatives
Are there other goals, besides the goal of maximum shareholder wealth
Financial Management Overview and Key Concepts
Financial Management Overview and Key Concepts
Financial Management Overview and Key Concepts
Financial Management Overview and Key Concepts

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Financial Management Overview and Key Concepts

  • 1. SAS PART II PAPER VII SECTION – I: FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT INDEX 1. FINANCE Sl. No. TOPICS 1. Financial Management - An overview, an understanding of basic terms / concept in Finance. 2. Concept of Time Value of Money. 3. Capital Expenditure Decisions. 4. Project Appraisal and Control Techniques
  • 2. FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT -AN OVERVIEW INTRODUCTION Finance may be defined as the art and science of managing money. The major areas of finance are: (1) financial services and (2) managerial finance/corporate finance/financial management. While financial services is concerned with the design and delivery of advice and financial products to individuals, businesses and governments within the areas of banking and related institutions, personal financial planning, investments, real estate, insurance and so on, financial management is concerned with the duties of the financial managers in the business firm. Financial managers actively manage the financial affairs of any type of business, namely, financial and non-financial, private and public, large and small, profit-seeking and not-for-profit. They perform such varied tasks as budgeting, financial forecasting, cash management, credit administration, investment analysis, funds management and so on. In recent years, the changing regulatory and economic environments coupled with the globalisation of business activities have increased, the complexity as well as the importance of the financial managers' duties. As a result, the financial management function has become more demanding and complex. This Chapter provides an overview of financial management function. It is organised into seven Sections: . Relationship of finance and related disciplines . Scope of financial management . Goal /objectives ,of financial management . Agency problem . Organisation of the finance function . Emerging role of finance managers in India . An overview FINANCE –FINANCE AND RELATED DISCIPLINE Financial management, as an integral part of overall management, is not a totally independent area. It draws heavily on related disciplines and fields of study, such as economics, "accounting, marketing, production and quantitative methods. Although these disciplines are interrelated, there are key differences among them. In this Section, we discuss these relationships. Finance and Economics The relevance of economics. to financial management can be described in the light of the two broad areas of economics: macroeconomics and microeconomics. Macroeconomics is concerned with the overall institutional environment in which the firm operates. It looks at the economy as a whole. Macroeconomics is concerned with the institutional structure of the banking system, money and capital markets, financial intermediaries, monetary, credit and fiscal policies and economic policies dealing with, and controlling level of, activity within an economy. Since business firms operate in the macroeconomic environment, it is important for financial managers to understand the broad economic environment. Specifically, they should (1) recognise and understand how monetary policy affects the cost and the availability of funds; (2) be versed in fiscal policy and its effects on the economy; (3) be ware of the various financial institutions/financing
  • 3. outlets; (4) understand the consequences of various levels of economic activity and changes in economic policy for their decision environment and so on. Microeconomics deals with the economic decisions of individuals and organisations. It concerns itself with the determination of optimal operating strategies. In other words, the theories of microeconomics provide for effective operations of business firms. They are concerned with defining actions that will permit the firms to achieve success. The concepts and theories of microeconomics relevant to financial management are, for instance, those involving (1) supply and demand relationships and profit maximisation strategies, (2) issues related to the mix of productive factors, 'optimal' sales level and product pricing strategies, (3) measurement of utility preference, risk and the determination of value, and (4) the rationale of depreciating assets. In addition, the primary principle that applies in financial management is marginal analysis; it suggests that financial decisions should be made on the basis of comparison of marginal revenue and marginal cost. Such decisions will lead to an increase in profits of the firm. It is, therefore, important that financial managers must be familiar with basic microeconomics. To illustrate, the financial manager of a department store is contemplating to replace one of its online computers with a new, more sophisticated one that would both speed up processing time and handle a large volume of transactions. The new computer would require a cash outlay of Rs 8,00,000 and the old computer could be sold to net Rs 2,80,000. The total benefits from the new computer and the old computer would be Rs 10,00,000 and Rs 3,50,000 respectively. Applying marginal analysis, we get: Benefits with new computer Rs 10,00,000 Less: Benefits with old computer Marginal benefits (a) Cost of new computer 3,50,000 Marginal Benefits (a) Rs 6,50,000 Cost of new computer Rs 8,00,000 Less: Proceeds from sale of old computer Marginal cost (b) Net benefits [(a) - (b)] Rs 2,80,000 Marginal cost (b) Rs 5,20,000 Net benefits (a) –(b) 1,30,0000 As the store would get a net benefit of Rs 1,30,000, the old computer should be replaced by the new one. Thus, a knowledge of economics is necessary for a financial manager to understand both the financial environment and the decision theories which underline contemporary financial management. He should be familiar with these two areas of economics. Macroeconomics provides the financial manager with an insight into policies by which economic activity is controlled. Operating within that institutional framework, the financial manager draws on microeconomic theories of the operation of firms and profit maximisation. A basic knowledge of economics is, therefore, necessary to understand both the environment and the decision. techniques of financial management. Finance and Accounting The relationship between finance and accounting, conceptually speaking, has two dimensions: CO they are closely related to the extent that accounting is an important input in financial decision
  • 4. making; and (ii) there. are key differences in viewpoints between them. . Accounting function is a necessary input into the finance function. That is, accounting is a subfunction of finance. Accounting generates information/data relating to operations/activities of the firm. The end-product of accounting constitutes financial statements such as the balance sheet, the income statement (profit and loss account) and the statement of changes in financial position/ sources and uses of funds statement/cash flow statement. The information contained in these statements and reports assists financial managers in assessing the past performance and future directions of the firm and in meeting legal obligations, such as payment of taxes and so on. Thus, accounting and finance are functionally closely related. Moreover, the finance (treasurer) and accounting (controller) activities are typically within the control of the vice- president/director (finance)/Chief financial officer (CFO) as shown in Fig. 1.2. These functions are closely related and generally overlap; indeed, financial management and accounting are often not easily distinguishable. In small firms the controller often carries out the finance function and in large firms many accountants are intimately involved in various finance activities. But there are two key differences between finance and accounting. The first difference relates to the treatment of funds, while the second relates to decision making. Treatment of Funds The viewpoint of accounting relating to the funds of the firm is different from that of finance. The measurement of funds (income and expenses) in accounting is based on the accrual principle/system. For instance, revenue is recognised at the point of sale and not when collected. Similarly, expenses are recognised when they are incurred rather than when actually paid. The accrual-based accounting data do not reflect fully the financial circumstances of the firm. A firm may be quite profitable in the accounting sense in that it has earned profit (sales less expenses) but it may not be able to meet current obligations owing to shortage of liquidity. due to uncollectable receivables, for instance. Such a firm will not survive regardless of its levels of profits. ,The viewpoint of finance relating to the treatment of funds is based on cashflows. The revenues are recognised only when actually received in cash (Le. cash inflow) and expenses are recognised on actual payment (Le. cash outflow). This is so because the financial manager is concerned with maintaining solvency of the firm by providing the cashflows necessary to satisfy its obligations and acquiring and financing the assets needed to achieve the goals of the firm. Thus, cashflow-based returns help financial managers avoid insolvency and achieve the desired financial goals. To illustrate, total sales of a trader during the year amounted to Rs 10,00,000 while the cost of sales was Rs 8,00,000. At the end of the year, it has yet to collect Rs 8,00,000 from the customers. The accounting view and the financial view of the firms performance during the year are given below. Accounting View Financial View (Income Statement) (Cash Flow Statement) Sales Rs 10,00,000 Cash inflow Rs 2,00,000 Less: Cost Rs 8,00,000 Less cash outflow Rs 8,00,000 _____________ ___________ Net Profit Rs 2,00,000 Net cash outflow Rs 6,00,000
  • 5. Obviously, the firm is quite profitable in accounting sense, it is a financial failure in, terms of actual cash flows resulting from uncollected receivables. Regardless of its profits, the firm would not survive due to inadequate cash inflows to meet its obligations. Decision Making Finance and accounting also differ in respect of their purposes. The purpose of accounting is collection and presentation of financial data. It provides consistently developed and easily interpreted data on the past, present and future operations of the firm. The financial manager uses such data for financial decision making. It does not mean that accountants never make decisions or financial managers never collect data. But the primary focus of the functions of accountants is on collection and presentation of data while the financial manager's major responsibility relates to financial planning, controlling and decision making. Thus, in a sense, finance begins where accounting ends. Finance and Other Related Disciplines Apart from economics and accounting, finance also draws-for its day-to-day decisions-on supportive disciplines such as marketing, production and quantitative methods. For instance, financial managers should consider the impact of new product development and promotion plans made in marketing area since their plans will require capital outlays and have an impact on the projected cash flows. Similarly, changes in the production process may necessitate capital expenditures which the financial managers must evaluate and finance. And, finally, the tools of analysis developed in the quantitative methods area are helpful in analysing complex financial management problems. The marketing, production and quantitative methods are, thus, only indirectly related to day-today decision making by financial managers and are supportive in nature while economics and accounting are the primary disciplines on which the financial manager draws substantially. The relationship between financial management and supportive disciplines is depicted in Fig 1.1. Financial Decision Area Primary Discipline 1. Accounting 1. Investment analysis Support 2. Macroeconomics 2~ Working capital management: 3. Micro economics 3. Sources and cost of funds 4. Determination of capital structure 5. Dividend policy. ' 6. Analysis of risks and returns Support Other Relates Discipline 1. Marketing 2. Production
  • 6. 3. Quantatative method Resulting in Shareholders Wealth Maximisation SCOPE OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT The approach to the scope and functions of financial management is divided, for purposes of exposition, into two broad categories: (a) The Traditional Approach, and (b) The Modem Approach. Traditional Approach The traditional approach to the scope of financial management refers to its subject-matter, in academic literature in the initial stages of its evolution, as a separate branch of academic Study. The term 'corporation finance' was used to describe what is now known in the academic world as 'financial management'. As the name suggests, the concern of corporation finance was with the financing of corporate enterprises. In other words, the scope of the finance function was treated by the traditional approach in the narrow sense of procurement of funds by corporate enterprise to meet their financing needs. The term 'procurement' was used in a broad sense so as to include the whole gamut of raising funds externally. Thus defined, the field of study dealing with finance was treated as encompassing three interrelated aspects of raising and administering resources from outside: (i) the institutional arrangement in the form of financial institutions which comprise the organisation of the capital market; (ii) the financial instruments through which funds are raised from the capital markets and the related aspects of practices and the procedural aspects of capital markets; and (iii) the legal and accounting relationships between a firm and its sources of funds. The coverage of corporation finance was, therefore, conceived to describe the rapidly evolving complex of capital market institutions, instruments and practices. A related aspect was that firms require funds at certain episodic events such as merger, liquidation, reorganisation and so on. A detailed description of these major events constituted the second element of the scope of this field of academic study. That these were the broad features of the subject-matter of corporation finance is eloquently reflected in the academic writings around the period during which the traditional approach dominated academic thinking. 1 Thus, the issues to which literature on finance addressed itself was how resources could best be raised from the combination of the available sources. The traditional approach to the scope of the finance function evolved during the 1920s and 1930s and dominated academic thinking during' th~ forties and through the early ftfties. It has now been discarded as it suffers from serious limitations. The weaknesses of the traditional approach fall into two broad categories: (i) those relating to the treatment of various topics and the emphasis attached to them; and (ii) those relating to the basic conceptual and analytical framework of the definitions and scope of the finance function. The first argument against the traditional approach was based on its emphasis on issues relating to the procurement of funds by corporate enterprises. This approach was challenged during the period when the approach dominated the scene itself.2 Further, the traditional treatment of finance was criticised3 because the finance function was equated with the issues involved in raising and administering funds, the theme was woven around the viewpoint of the suppliers
  • 7. of funds such as investors, investment bankers and so on, that, is the outsiders. It implies that no consideration was given to viewpoint of those who had to take internal financial decisions. The traditional treatment was, in other words, the outsider-looking-in approach. The limitation was that internal decision making (ie. insider-looking-out) was completely ignored. The second ground of criticism of the traditional treatment was that the focus was on financing problems of corporate enterprise. To that extent the scope of financial management was confirmed only to a segment of the industrial enterprises, as non-corporate organisations lay outside its scope. Yet another basis on which the traditional approach was challenged was that the treatment was built too closely around episodic events, such as promotion, incorporation, merger, consolidation, reorganisation and so on. Financial management was' confirmed to a description of these infrequent happenings in the life of an enterprise. As a logical corollary, the day-to-day financial problems of a normal company did not receive much attention. Finally, the traditional treatment was found to have a lacuna to the extent that the focus was on long-term financing. Its natural implication was that the issues involved in working capital management were not in the purview of the finance function. The limitations of the traditional approach were not entirely based on treatment or emphasis of different aspects. In other words, its weaknesses were more fundamental. The conceptual and analytical shortcoming of this approach arose from the fact that it confirmed financial management to issues involved in procurement of external funds, it did not consider the important dimension of allocation of capital. The conceptual framework of the traditional treatment ignored what Solomon aptly described as the central issues of financial management. These issues were reflected in the following fundamental questions which a finance manager should address. Should an enterprise commit capital funds to certain purposes? Do the expected returns meet financial standards of performance? How should these standards be set and what is the cost of capital funds to the enterprises? How does the cost vary with the mixture of financing methods used? In the absence of the coverage of these crucial aspects, the traditional approach implied a very narrow scope for financial management. The modem approach provides a solution to these shortcomings. Modem Approach The modern approach views the term financial management in a broad sense and provides a conceptual and analytical framework for financial decision making. According to it, the finance function covers both acquisition of funds as well as their allocations. Thus, apart from the issues involved in acquiring external funds, the main concern of financial management is the efficient and wise allocation of funds to various uses. Defined in a broad sense, it is viewed as an integral part of overall management. The new approach is an analytical way of viewing the financial problems of a firm. The main contents of this approach are: What is the total volume of funds an enterprise should commit? What specific assets should an enterprise acquire? How should the funds required be financed? Alternatively, the principal contents of the modem approach to financial management can be said to be: (0 how large should an enterprise be, and how fast should it grow? (ii) In what form should it hold assets? and (Hi) what should be the composition of its liabilities? The three questions posed above cover between them the major' financial problems of a firm. In other words, the financial management, according to the new approach, is concerned with the solution of three major problems relating to the financial operations of a firm, corresponding to the three questions of investment, financing and dividend decisions. Thus, financial management in modern sense of a firm can be broken down into three major decisions as
  • 8. functions of finance: (D The investment decision, (ii) the financing decision, and (iii) the dividend policy decision. Investment Decision The investment decision relates to the selection of assets in which funds will be invested by a firm. The assets which can be acquired fall into two broad groups: (I) long-term assets which yield a return over a period of time in future, (ii) short-term or current assets, defined as those assets which in the normal course of business are convertible into cash without diminution in value, usually within a year. The first of these involving the first category of assets is popularly known in financial literature as capital budgeting. The aspect of financial decision making with reference to current assets or short-term assets is popularly termed as working capital management. Capital Budgeting Capital budgeting is probably the most crucial financial decision of a firm. It relates to the selection of an asset or investment proposal or course of action whose benefits are likely to be available in future over the lifetime of the project. The long-term assets can be either new or old/existing ones. The first aspect of the capital budgeting decision relates to the choice of the new asset out of the alternatives available or the reallocation of capital when an existing asset fails to justify the funds committed. Whether an asset will be accepted or not will depend upon the relative benefits and returns associated with it. The measurement of the worth of the investment proposals is, therefore, a major element in the capital budgeting exercise. This implies a discussion of the methods of appraising investment proposals. The second element of the capital budgeting decision is the analysis of risk and uncertainty. Since the benefits from the investment proposals extend into the future, their accrual is uncertain. They have to be estimated under various assumptions of the physical volume of sale and the level of prices. An element of risk in the sense of uncertainty of future' benefits is, thus, involved in the exercise. The returns from capital budgeting decisions should, therefore, be evaluated in relation to the risk associated with it. Finally, the evaluation of the worth of a long-term project implies a certain norm or standard against which the benefits are to be judged. The requisite norm is known by different names such as cut-off rate, hurdle rate, required rate, minimum rate of return and so on. This standard is broadly expressed in terms of the cost of capital. The concept and measurement of the cost of capital is, thus, another major aspect of capital budgeting decision. In brief, the main elements of capital budgeting decisions are: (I) the long-term assets and their composition, (ii) the business risk complexion of the firm, and (Hi) the concept and measurement of the cost of capital. Working Capital Management Working capital management is concerned with the management of current assets. It is an important and integral part of financial management as short-term survival is a prerequisite for long-term success. One aspect of working capital management is the trade-off between profitability and risk (liquidity). There is a conflict between profitability and liquidity. If a firm does not have adequate working capital, that is, it does not invest sufficient funds in current assets, it may become illiquid and consequently may not have the ability to meet its current obligations and, thus, invite the risk of bankruptcy.. If the current assets are too large, profitability is adversely affected. The key strategies and considerations in ensuring a trade-off between profitability and liquidity is one major dimension of working capital management. In addition, the individual current assets should be efficiently managed so that neither
  • 9. inadequate nor unnecessary funds are locked up. Thus, the management of working capital has two basic ingredients: (1) an overview of working capital management as a whole, and (2) efficient management of the individual current assets such as cash, receivables and inventory. Financing Decision the second major decision involved in financial management is the financing decision. The investment decision is broadly concerned with the asset-mix or the composition of the assets of a firm. The concern of the financing decision is with the financing-mix or capital structure or leverage. The term capital structure refers to the proportion of debt (fixed- interest sources of financing) and equity capital (variable-dividend securities/source of funds). The financing decision of a firm relates to the choice of the proportion of these sources to finance the investment requirements. There are two aspects of the financing decision. First, the theory of capital structure which shows the theoretical relationship between the employment of debt and the return to the shareholders. The use of debt implies a higher return to the shareholders as also the financial risk. A proper balance between debt and equity to ensure a trade-off between risk and return to the shareholders is necessary. A capital structure with a reasonable proportion of debt and equity capital is called the optimum capital structure. Thus, one dimension of the financing decision whether there is an optimum capital structure and in what proportion should funds be raised to maximise the return to the shareholders? The second aspect of the financing decision is the determination of to an appropriate capital structure, given the facts of a particular case. Thus, the financing decision covers two interrelated aspects: (1) the capital structure theory, and (2) the capital structure decision. Dividend Policy Decision The third major decision area of financial management is the decision relating to the dividend policy. The dividend decision should be analysed in' relation to the financing decision of a firm. Two alternatives are available in dealing with the profits of a firm: (0 they can be distributed to the shareholders in the form of dividends or (i0 they can be retained in the business itself. The decision as to which course should be followed depends largely on a significant element in the dividend decision, the dividend- payout ratio, that is, what proportion of net profits should be paid out to the shareholders. The fmal decision will depend upon the preference of the shareholders and investment opportunities available within the firm. The second major aspect of the. dividend decision is the factors determining dividend policy of a firm in practice. . To conclude, the traditional approach to the functions of financial management had a very narrow perception and was devoid of an integrated conceptual and analytical framework. It had rightly been discarded in the ac:ldemic literature. The modem approach to the scope of financial management has broadened its scope which involves the solution of three major decisions, namely, investment, fmancing and dividend. These are interrelated and should be jointly taken so that financial decision making is optimal. The conceptual framework for optimum financial decisions is the objective of financial management. In other words, to ensure an optimum decision in respect of these three areas, they should be related to the objectives of financial management. Key Activities of the Financial Manager The primary activities of a financial manager are: (i) performing financial analysis and planning, (i0 making investment decisions and (HO making financing decisions. Performing Financial Analysis and Planning The concern of financial analysis
  • 10. and planning is with (a) transforming financial data into a form that can be used to monitor financial condition, (b) evaluating the need for increased (reduced) productive capacity and (c) determining the additional/reduced financing required. Although this activity relies heavily on accrual-based financial statements, its underlying objective is to assess cash flows and develop plans to ensure adequate cash flows to support achievement of the firm's goals Making Investment Decisions Investment decisions determine both the mix and the type of assets held by a firm. The mix refers to the amount of current assets and fixed assets. Consistent with the mix, the financial manager must determine and maintain certain optimal levels of each type of current assets. He should 211so decide the best fixed assets to acquire and when existing fixed assets need to be modified/replaced/liquidated. The success of a firm in achieving its goals depends on these decisions. Making Financing Decisions Financing decisions involve two major areas: first, the most appropriate mix of short-term and long-term financing; second, the best individual short-term or long-term sources of financing at a given point of time. Many of these decisions are dictated by necessity, but some require an in- depth analysis of the available financing alternatives, their costs and their long- term implications OBJECTIVES OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT To make wise decisions a clear understanding of the objectives which are sought to be achieved is necessary. The objective provide a framework for optimum financial decision making. In other words, they are concerned with designing a method of operating the internal investment and financing of a firm. The term 'objective' is used in the sense of a goal or decision criterion for the three decisions involved in financial management. It implies that what is relevant is not the overall objective or goal of a business but a operationally useful criterion by which to judge a specific set of mutually interrelated business decisions, namely, investment, financing and dividend policy. Moreover, it provides a nOffi'lative framework. That is, the focus in financial literature is on what a firm should try to achieve and on policies that should b~ followed if certain goals are to be achieved. The implication is that these are not necessarily followed by firms in actual practice. They are rather employed to serve as a basis for theoretical analysis and do not reflect contemporary empirical industry practices. Thus, the term is used in a rather narrow sense of what a finn should anempt to achieve with its investment, fmancing and dividend policy decisions. Firms in practice state their vision, mission and values in broad terms and are also concerned about technology, leadership, productivity, market standing, image, profitability, financial resources, employees satisfaction and so on. We discuss in this Section the alternative approaches in financial literature, There are two widely-discussed approaches: (0 Profit (total)/Earning Per Share (EPS) maximisation approach, and (i0 Wealth maximisation approach. The gross present worth of a course of action is equal to the capitalised value of the flow of futUre expected benefit, discounted (or captialised) at a rate which reflects their certainty or uncertainty. Wealth or net present worth is the difference between gross present worth and the amount of capital investment required to achieve the benefits being discussed. Any financial action which creates wealth or which has a net present worth above zero is a desirable one and should be undertaken. Any financial action which does not meet this test should be rejected. If two or more desirable courses of action are mutUally exclusive (Le. if only one can be undertaken), then the decision should be to do
  • 11. Profit/EPS Maximisation Decision Criterion According to this approach, actions that increase profits (total)/EPS should be undertaken and those that decrease profits/EPS are to be avoided, In specific operational terms, as applicable to financial management, the profit maximisation criterion implies that the investment, financing and dividend policy decisions of a firm should be oriented to the maximisation of profits/EPS. The term 'profit' can be used in two senses. As a owner-oriented concept, it refers to the amount and share of national income which is paid to the owners of business, that is, those who supply equity capital. As a variant, it is described as profitability. It is an operational concept and signifies economic efficiency. In other words, profitability refers to a situation where output exceeds input, that is, the value created by the use of resources is more than the total of the input resources. Used in this sense, profitability maximisation would imply that a firm should be guided in financial decision making by one test; select assets, projects and decisions which are profitable and reject those which are not. In the current financial literature, there is a general agreement that profit maximisation is used in the second sense. The rationale behind profitability maximisation, as a guide to financial decision making, is simple. Profit is a test of economic efficiency. It provides the yardstick by which economic performance can be judged. Moreover, it leads to efficient allocation of resources, as resources tend to be directed to uses which in terms of profitability are the most desirable. Finally, it ensures maximum social welfare. The individual search for maximum profitability provides the famous 'invisible hand' by which total economic welfare is maximised. Financial management is concerned with the efficient use of an important economic resource (jnput) , namely, capital. It is, therefore, argued that profitability maximisation should serve as the basic criterion for financial" management decisions. The profit maximisation criterion has, however, been questioned and criticised on several grounds. The reasons for the opposition in academic literature fall into two broad groups: (1) those that are based on misapprehensions about the workability and fairness of the private enterprise itself, and (2) those that arise out of the difficulty of applying this criterion in actual situations. It would be recalled that the term objective, as applied to financial management, refers to an explicit operational guide for the internal investment and financing of a firm and not the overall goal of business operations. We, therefore, focus on the second type of limitations to profit maximisation as an objective of financial management.7 The main tecbnical flaws of this criterion are ambiguity, timing of benefits, and quality of benefits. Ambiguity One practical difficulty with profit maximisation criterion for financial decision making is that the term profit is a vague and ambiguous concept. It has no precise connotation. It is amenable to different interpretations by different people. To illustrate, profit may be short-term or long-term; it may be total profit or rate of profit; it may be before-tax or after-tax; it may return on total capital employed or total assets or shareholders' equity and so on. If profit maximisation is taken to be the objective, the question arises, which of these variants of profit should a firm try to maximise? Obviously, a loose expression like profit cannot form the basis of operational criterion for financial management. Timing of Benefits A more important technical objection to profit maximisation, as a guide to financial decision making, is that it ignores the differences in the time pattern of the benefits received over the working life of the asset, irrespective of when they were received. Consider Table 1.1.
  • 12. Time-Pattern of Benefits (Profits) Time Alternate A(Rs in lakh)__________Alternate B(Rs in lakh) Period I 50 -- Period II 100 100 Period III 50 100 ________________________________________________________________ ___________________ Total 200 200 It can be seen from Table 1.1 that the total profits associated with the alternatives, A and B, are identical. If the profit maximisation is the decision criterion, both the alternatives would be ranked equally. But the returns from both the alternatives differ in one important respect, while alternative A provides higher returns in earlier years, the returns from alternative B are larger in later years. As a result, the two alternative courses of action are not strictly identical. This is primarily because a basic dictum of financial planning is the earlier the better as benefits received sooner are more valuable than benefits received later. The reason for the superiority of benefits now over benefits later lies in the fact that the former can be reinvested to earn a return. This is referred to as time value of money. The profit maximisation criterion does not consider the distinction between returns received in different time periods and treats all benefits irrespective of the timing, as equally valuable. This is not true in actual practice as benefits in early years should be valued more highly than equivalent benefits in later years. The assumption of equal value is inconsistent with the real world situation. Quality of Benefits Probably the most important technical limitation of profit maximisation as an operational objective, is that it ignores the quality aspect of benefits associated with a financial course of action. The term quality here refers to the degree of certainty with which benefits can be expected. As a rule, the more certain the expected return, the higher is the quality of the benefits. Conversely, the more uncertain/fluctuating is the expected benefits, the lower is the quality of the benefits. An uncertain and fluctuating return implies risk to the investors. It can be safely assumed that the investors are risk-averters, that is, they want to avoid or at least minimise risk. They can, therefore, be reasonably expected to have a preference for a return which is more certain in the sense that it has smaller variance over the years. The problem of uncertainty renders profit maximisation unsuitable as an operational criterion for financial management as it considers only the size of benefits and gives no weight to the degree of uncertainty of the future benefits. This is illustrated in Table 1.2. Uncertainty About Expected Benefits (Profits) Profit(Rs crore) __________________________________________ State of Economy Alternate A Benefits Recession (Period I) 9 0 Normal (Period II) 10
  • 13. 10 Boom (Period III) 11 20 Total 30 30 It is clear from Table 1.2 that the total returns associated with the two alternatives are identical in a normal situation but the range of variations is very wide in case of alternative B, while it is narrow in respect of alternative A. To put It differently, the earnings associated with alternative B are more uncertain (risky) as they fluctuate widely depending on the state of the economy. Obviously, alternative A is beuer in terms of risk and uncertainty. The profit maximisation criterion fails to reveal this. To conclude, the profit maximisation criterion is inappropriate and unsuitable as an operational objective of investment, financing and dividend decisions of a firm. It is not only vague and ambiguous but it also ignores two important dimensions of financial analysis, namely, risk, and time value of money. It follows from the above that an appropriate operational decision criterion for financial management should (j) be precise and exact, (ij) be based on the 'bigger the better' principle, (iij) consider both quantity and quality dimensions of benefits, and (iv) recognise the time value of money. The alternative to profit maxirnisation, that is, wealth maximisation is one such measure. Wealth Maximisation Decision Criterion This is also known as value maximisation or net present worth maximisation. In current academic literature value maximisation is almost universally accepted as an appropriate operational decision criterion for financial management decisions as it removes the technical limitations which characterise the earlier profit maximisation criterion. Its operational features satisfy all the three requirements of a suitable operational objective of financial course of action, namely, exactness, quality of benefits and the time value of money. The value of an asset should be viewed in terms of the benefits it can produce. The worth of a course of action can similarly be judged in terms of the value of the benefits it produces less the cost of undertaking it. A significant element in computing the value of a financial course of action is the precise estimation of the benefits associated with it. The wealth maximisation criterion is based on the concept of cash flows generated by the decision rather than accounting profit which is the basis of the measurement of benefits in the case of the profit maximisation criterion. Cash flow is a precise concept with a definite connotation. Measuring benefits in terms of cash flows avoids the ambiguity associated with accounting profits. This is the first operational feature of the net present worth maximisation criterion The second important feature of the wealth maximisation criterion is that it considers both the quantity and quality dimensions of benefits. At the same time, it also incorporates the time value of money. The operational implication of the uncertainty and timing dimensions of the benefits emanating from a financial decision is that adjustments should be made in the cash-flow pattern, firstly, to incorporate risk and, secondly, to make an allowance for differences in the timing of benefits. The value of a stream of cash flows with value maximisation criterion is calculated by discounting its element back to the present at a capitalisation rate that reflects both time and risk. The value of a course of action must be viewed in terms of its worth to those providing the resources necessary for its undertaking. In applying the value maximisation criterion, the term value is used in terms of worth to the owners, that is, ordinary shareholders. The capitaIisation (discount) rate that is employed is, therefore, the rate that
  • 14. reflects the time and risk preferences of the owners or suppliers of capital. As a measure of quality (risk) and timing, it is expressed in decimal notation. A discount rate of, say, 15 per cent is written as 0.15. A large capitalisation rate is the result of higher risk and longer time period. Thus, a stream of cash flows that is quite certain might be associated with a rate of 5 per cent, while a very risky stream may carry a 15 per cent discount rate. For the above reasons, the net present value maximisation is superior to the profit maximisation as an operational objective. As a decision criterion, it involves a comparison of value to cost. An action that has a discounted value-reflecting both time and risk-that exceeds its cost can be said to create value. Such actions should be undertaken. Conversely, actions, with less value than cost, reduce wealth and should be rejected. In the case of mutually exclusive alternatives, when only one has to be chosen the alternative with the greatest net present value should be selected. In the words of Ezra Solomon, The gross present worth of a course of action is equal to the capitalised value of the flow of futUre expected benefit, discounted (or captialised) at a rate which reflects their certainty or uncertainty. Wealth or net present worth is the difference between gross present worth and the amount of capital investment required to achieve the benefits being discussed. Any financial action which creates wealth or which has a net present worth above zero is a desirable one and should be undertaken. Any financial action which does not meet this test should be rejected. If two or more desirable courses of action are mutually exclusive (Le. if only one can be undertaken), then the decision should be to do that which creates most wealth or shows the greatest amount of net present worth. Using Ezra Solomon's symbols and methods, the net present worth can be calculated as shown below: . (i) w= v- C (1.1) Where W = Net present worth V = Gross present worth C = Investment (equity capital) required to acquire the asset or to purchase the course of action (ii) V = FJ K (1.2) Where E = Size of future benefits available to the suppliers of the input capital K = The capitalisation (discount) rate reflecting the quality (certainty/uncertainty)and timing of benefits attached to E (iii) E = G - (M + 1+ 1) (1.3) Where G = Average future flow of gross annual earnings expected from the course of action, before maintenance charges, taxes and interest and other prior charges like preference dividend M = Average annual reinvestment required to maintain G at the projected level T= Expected annual outflow on account of taxes and other prior charges. The operational objective of financial management is the maximisation of W in Eq. (1.1). Alternatively, W can be expressed symbolically by a short-cut method as in Eq. (1.4). Net present value (worth) or wealth is A1 A2 A3 W = ------------ + ----------- +…+ -------------- (1.4) 2 3 (1+K) (1+K) (1+K) where ~, A1 A2, ... An represents the stream of cash flows expected to occur
  • 15. from a course of action over a period of time; K is the appropriate discount rate to measure risk and timing; and C is the initial outlay to acquire that asset or pursue the course of action. It can, thus, be seen that in the value maximisation decision criterion, the time value of money and handling of the risk as measured by the uncertainty of the expected benefits is an integral part of the exercise. It is, moreover, a precise and unambiguous concept, and therefore, an appropriate and operationally feasible decision criterion for financial management decisions. It would also be noted that the focus of financial management is on the value to the owners or suppliers of equity capital. The wealth of the owners is reflected in the market value of shares. So wealth maximisation implies the rnaxirnisation of the market price of shares. In other words, maxirnisation of the market price of shares is the operational ;substitute for value/wealth/net present value rnaximisation as a decision criterion. In brief, what is relevant is not the overall goal of a firm but a decision criterion, which should guide the financial course of action. Profit EPS maxirnisation was initially the generally accepted theoretical criterion for making efficient economic decisions, using profit as an economic concept and defining profit rnaximisation as a criterion for economic efficiency. In current financial literature, it has been replaced by the wealth maxirnisation decision criterion because of the shortcomings of the former as an operational criterion, as (j) It does not take account of uncertainty of risk, (ij) it ignores the time value of money, and (ill) it is ambiguous in its computation. Owing to these technical limitations, profit maximisation cannot be applied in real world situations. Its modified form is the value rnaximisation criterion. It is important to note that value maxirnisation is simply extension of profit rnaxirnisation to a world that is uncertain and multiperiod in nature. Where the time period is short and degree of uncertainty is not great, value maxirnisation and profit rnaximisation amount to essentially the same thing. However, two important issues are related to the value/share price- rnaximisation, namely, economic value added and focus on stakeholders Economic Value Added (EVA) It is a popular measure currently being used by several firrns to determine whether an existing/proposed investment positively contributes to the owners'/shareholders' wealth. The EVA is equal to after-tax operating profits of a firm less the cost of funds used to finance investments. A positive EVA would increase owners' value/wealth. Therefore, only investments with positive EVA would be desirable from the viewpoint of maximizing shareholders' wealth. To illustrate, assuming an after-tax profit of Rs 40 crore and associated costs of financing the investments of Rs 38 crore, the EVA = Rs 2 crore (Rs 40 crore - Rs 38 crore). With a positive EVA, the investment would add value and increase the wealth of the owners and should be accepted. The computation of the after-tax operating profits attributable to the investment under consideration as well as the cost of funds used to finance it would, however, involve numerous accounting and financial issues. The merits of EVA are: (a) its relative simplicity and (b) its strong link with the wealth rnaximisation of the owners. It prima facie exhibits a strong link to share prices, that is, positive EVA is associated with increase in prices of shares and vice versa. However, EVA is, in effect, a repackaged and well-marketed application of the NPV technique of investment decision. But EVA is certainly a useful tool for operationalising the owners' value rnaximisation goal, particularly with respect to the investment decision. . Focus on Stakeholders The shareholders wealth rnaximisation as the primary goal notwithstanding, there is a broader focus in financial management to include the interest of the stakeholders as well as the shareholders. The stakeholders include employees; customers, suppliers, creditors and owners and others who
  • 16. have a direct link to the firm. The implication of the focus on stakeholders is that a firm should avoid actions detrimental to them through the transfer of their wealth to the firm arid, thus, damage their wealth. The goal should be preserve the well-being of the stakeholders and not to maximise it. The focus on the stakeholders does not, however, alter the shareholders' wealth maximisation goal. It tends to limit the firm's actions to preserve the wealth of the stakeholders. The stakeholders view is considered part of its "social responsibility" and is expected to provide maximum long term benefit to the shareholders by maintaining positive stakeholders relationship which would minimize stakeholder turnover, conflict and litigation. In brief, a firm can better achieve its goal of shareholders' wealth maximisation with the cooperation of, rather than conflict with, its other stakeholders. Shareholder Orientation in India Traditionally, the corporate industrial sector in India was . dominated by group companies with close links with the promoter groups. Their funding primarily was through institutional borrowings from public development finance institutions like IFCI, ICICI, IDBI! and so on. There was preponderance of loan capital in their financial structure and shareholders equity played a rather marginal role. It was no wonder, therefore, that corporate India paid scant attention to shareholders' wealth maximisation with few exceptions such as Reliance Industries Ltd. In the post-90 liberalisation era, the goal of shareholders' wealth maximisation has emerged almost at the centre-stage. The main contributory factors have been (0 greater dependence on capital market, (ii) growing importance of institutional investors, (iii) tax concessions/ incentives to shareholders and (iv) foreign exposure. With the gradual decline in the significance of the development/public term/term lending institutions over the years and their disappearance from the Indian financial scene recently (as a result of their conversion/proposed conversion into banks) and the consequent emergence of the capital market as the main source of corporate financing, shareholders' wealth maximisation is emerging as the prime goal of corporate financial management. Secondly, as a result of the institutionalisation of savings, institutional investors such as mutual funds, insurance organisations, foreign institutional investors and so on dominate the structure of the Indian capital market. To cater to the requirements of these institutional investors, corporates are pursuing more shareholder - friendly policies as reflected in their efforts to focus on shareholders' wealth maximisation. Thirdly, the abolition of wealth tax on equity shares and other financial assets coupled with tax. exemption on dividends in recent years has provided an incentive to corporates to enhance share prices and, thus, focus on shareholders' wealth. Finally, the family-owned corporate are also undergoing major transformation. The scions of most business families are acquiring higher professional education in India and abroad. With the foreign exposure, they also appreciate the importance of shareholders' wealth. Thus, shareholder orientation is unmistakably visible in the corporate India. ____________________________
  • 17. CONCEPT OF TIME VALUE OF MONEY PRESENT VALUE 1.0 OBJECTIVES The objective is to understand the concept that money has a time value. The notion that a rupee today is preferable to the same rupee in the future is intuitive enough for most people to grasp. This can be grasped without the use of models and mathematics. The principal of present value provides the backing for this and enables us to calculate exactly how much a rupee some time in the future is worth today. In this chapter we shall examine the following questions: · What do we mean by time value of money? · What is the basis for present value? What factors affect the timing of cash flows and how does this affect the time value? 1.1 INTRODUCTION The principles of present value also underlie most of what we do in Corporate Finance by evaluating projects and valuation of company shares and a great deal of personal finance and investment. The simplest tools in finance are often the most powerful. Present value is a concept which shows that money has a time value. It is an intuitive and simple concept, simple to calculate and can be applied in a wide range of situations in corporate finance. We can use this concept in buying a house, saving for a child's education, picking a project or more complex situations like valuing a buyout of a company share. That money has time value stems from the concept that the value of money gets eroded by the concept of inflation. How often have we heard our elders say that a kilo of rice was so cheap or that a house was so cheap and had they invested wisely it might have been better? How often are clothes cheaper,education cheaper and all the common essentials becoming dearer year after year? In the following pages you will understand the concept and learn to apply .it on real life examples. 1.2 DESCRIPTION Dealing with Cash Flows at different points of time can be made easier using a time line that shows both the value and timing of cash flows. The following figure shows a cash flow of Rs 100 at the end of five years.
  • 18. In the figure above '0' time on the time line depicts now, at the present moment or today. Thus a cash flow or rupees received by you today has the same value today. Thus it need not be adjusted for time value. Now a distinction should be made between a period in time and a point in time. The portion of the time line between 0 and 1 and 2 and 3, etc. refers to period 1 and period 3 which in this example is the first year and third year. The cash flow that occurs in a point in time -1- refers to the cash flow that occurs at the end of period 1. Finally the discount rate which is 10 per cent in this example is specified in each period of the time line and may be different for each period. Had the cash flows been at 0 1 yr Rs 100 2 yrs Rs 100 3 yrs Rs 100 4 yrs Rs 100 5 yrs Rs 100 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% Fig 1 (a) A Time Line for Cash Flows- End of Each Period 0 Rs 100 1 yr Rs 100 2 yrs Rs 100 3 yrs Rs 100 4 yrs Rs 100 5 yrs 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% Fig 1.1(b) A Time Line for cash Flows- Beginning of Each Period the beginning of each year instead of the end of each year, the time line would be as redrawn above. Please note that the beginning of year 2 is the end of year 1. It depends how you look at it. Positive and negatives cash flows: Cash flows can neither be negative or positive.Cash inflows are called Positive Cash Flows and Csh outflows are called Negative Cash flows. Notations Notation Meaning PV Present Value FV Future Value Cf Cash flow at the end of period t A Annuity-Constant Cash Flows over several periods r Discount Rate g Expected growth rate in cash flows n Number of periods over which cash flows are received or paid
  • 19. 3.3 COMMON SENSE APPROACH TO PRESENT VALUE A cash flow in the future is worthless than a. similar cash flow today because: ● People prefer present consumption to future consumption. ● People would have to be offered more in the future to give up present consumption. ● Due to inflation the value of money/currency depreciates or erodes over a period of time. This happens due to inflation. The greater the inflation the greater is the erosion in the value of the rupee today and in the future. ● Due to the uncertainty of receiving the cash flow in the future the value of the cash flow in the future reduces further. This means there is a risk associated with receiving the cash flow in future and this reduces the, value associated with the cash flow. The greater the risk the greater the erosion in value. The process by which future cash flows are adjusted to reflect these factors is called discounting, and the magnitude of these factors is reflected in the discount rate. What is Discount Rate? The discount rate is a rate at which present and future cash flows are traded off. It incorporates 1. The preference for currrent consumption ( greater preference 2. Expected inflation (higher inflation _ higher discount rate). 3. The uncertainty in the future cash flows (higher risk ___ higher discount rate). A higher discount rate will lead to a lower present value for future cash flows. 1.4 TRADE OFF IN REAL CONSUMPTION OVER TIME Although individuals prefer present consumption to future consumption, the degree of this preference varies across individuals. This trade off between present consumption (Co) and future consumption (C1) can be explained as follows. In the real world people can get the same amount of money in each period and they can either consume it or save it or lend it. A may choose to consume the whole amount, B may consume more money by borrowing and C may consume less and save and lend the remaining portion. If the preference for current consumption is strong then we have to offer more in terms of future. consumption to give up current consumption. Thus there is always a trade off which is always reflected by the high-real
  • 20. rate of return or discount rate. If the preference for current consumption is weak then a person can settle for a lower real rate of return or discount rate. The assumption here is that any money. or wealth saved will always be lent out as because it can earn a return for the saver. The story of the grasshopper and the ant reflects this. The grasshopper may make merry and use all of his money whereas the ant may save to enjoy during winter. Many an old couple enjoy their retirement because they have intuitively used the concept of time value of money properly and when their earning capacity goes down they can enjoy the fruits of their savings ans investment decisions. 1.5 THE CALCULATION OF PRESENT VALUE The process of discounting future cash flows converts them into cash flows in present value terms. Conversely the process of compounding converts present cash flows into future cash flows. Cash flows at different points to time cannot be compared and aggregated unless they are all brought to the same point in time before we can compare or aggregate them. There are five types of cash flows: 1. Simple cash flows 2. Annuities 3. Growing Annuities 4. Perpetuities and 5. Growing Perpetuities 1. Simple cash flows A simple cash flow is a single cash flow in a specified future time period. On a time line CF t = Cash Flow at Time t 0 t This cash flow can be discounted back to the present discount rate that reflects the uncertainty of the cash flow. Conversely,cash flows in the present can be compounded to arrive at an expected future cash flow. Discounting: is the process by which a cash flow which is expected to occur in the future is brought to its present value.
  • 21. Compounding: is the process by which a cash flow today is converted into its expected future value. Calculating Present Value The present value of Rs 1,00,000 a year from now must be less than Rs 1,00,000 today. Thus the present value of the delayed payoff can be found out by multiplying the payoff with the discount factor which is less than 1. If the discount factor is more than 1 a rupee today would be worthless than a rupee tomorrow. If C1 denotes the expected payoff at period 1, one year hence then Present Value (PV) = Discount factor x C1 Or In the example earlier Present Value (PV) = __CF1__ (1 + r) Thus the discount factor is the value received today of Rs 1 received in the future. It is usually expressed as a reciprocal of 1 plus a rate of return. Discount factor = 1 (1 + r) Similarly you have a compounding factor. To calculate discount factor and compound factors we have tables to aid us in complex calculations. These are given as an appendix to the chapter below. The rate of return r is the reward that investors demand for accepting a delayed payment. You are considering investing in a house or property worth Rs 4,00,000 today and your real estate advisor has estimated that the cost would go upto Rs 5,00,000 in a year if you sold it. That is not the only way you can earn money as you have various investment options. You can invest in Public Provident Fund with an interest rate of 9 per cent. How much would you have; to invest in PPF to receive Rs 5,00,000 after a year. That is easy as the interest rate is 9 per cent, you would have to invest Rs 5,00,000/1.09, which is Rs 458715.59. Thus the building investment is a better option as you get a higher rate of return. However you must bear in mind that the real estate investment has a higher risk in terms of variability of return. Thus risk is related to return whereas the PPF option has a lower risk and lower return. To calculate present value, we discount the expected payoff by the rate of return offered by equivalent investment alternatives in the capital or financial! markets. This rate of return is often referred to as the discount
  • 22. rate, hurdle rate or opportunity cost of capital. It is called opportunity cost because it is the return forgone by investing in the project rather than investing in securities. In our example the opportunity cost was 9 per cent. Present value was obtained by dividing Rs 5,00,000 by 1.09. PV = Discount factor x C1 = _1____x C1 1+r = 5,00,000 = Rs 458715.59 1.09 3. Net Present Value Let us suppose that your property is worth Rs 458715.59 today but you committed Rs 4,00,000 initial outgo to purchase the property. So your NET PRESENT VALUE is Rs 58715.59. Net Present Value is found by subtracting the required investment NPV= PV - Required Investment = Rs 4,58,715.59 - Rs 4,00,000 = Rs 58,715.59 In other words your investment in the property is worth more than it costs - it makes a net contribution to value. The formula for calculating NPV can be written as C1 NPV= C 0 +_____ 1+r Remember that Co the cash flow at time 0 (that is today), will usually be a negative number. In other words, Co is an investment and therefore a cash outflow. In our example Co is - Rs 4,00,000. Relation of Risk to Present Value In many of our calculations we feel it is enough to compare the present values and aggregates, however we make the unrealistic assumption of assigning the same level of risk and only taking decisions based on the comparative returns of alternative means of adjustments. The real estate advisor or property advisor cannot be sure about the return in the market. If the future value of this property is risky our calculation is wrong. Public Provident Fund is certainly less risky as it
  • 23. is akin to Government security. Thus if you were asking someone else to invest in this property along with you they may not agree to give you the present value amount but something less than that. Thus we invoke another financial principal that a safe rupee is worth more than a risky one. Thus we do not use the same discount factor while comparing alternative investment avenues. The discount rate for PPF may be 9 per cent OR 0.09 but the discount rate for the building property may be 11 per cent or 0.11. Only after the present values are calculated using these two different discount rates is the best investment avenue or project decided. Most investors avoid risk when they can do so without sacrificing return. However, the concepts of present value and the opportunity cost of capital still make sense for risky investments. It is still proper to discount the payoff by the rate of return offered by an equivalent investment. But we have to think of Expected payoffs and the expected rates of returns on other investments. You will learn more about expected payoffs when you do Capital Budgeting Later. For now it will be enough if you think of an expected payoff and the expected rates of returns on other investments. You will learn more about expected payoffs when you do Capital Budgeting Later. For now it will be enough if you think of an expected payoff as a realistic forecast,neither pessimistic nor optimistic. Concept check: India has a low savings rate as compared to Japan. This leads to greater budget and trade deficits. How does a low saving rate affect discount rates? Effect of Inflation on Discount Rate: The effect of inflation on present value is evident because it reduces the purchasing power of future cash flows. This adjustment reduces the value of future cash flows, but these real cash flows, will have to be reduced further to reflect real returns (i.e. the trade offs between current and future consumption) and any uncertainty associated with the cash flows to arrive at the present value. Thus, an investor who expects to make 10.5 million Mexican pesos a year from now will have to reduce this expected cash flow to arrive at the present value. Thus, an investor who expects 1 million Italian Lire a year from now will have to reduce this expected cash flow to 1 reflect the expected inflation rate in Mexico. If that inflation rate is 25 per cent,for instance, the real cash flow will be only 0.8 million Italian lire. The general formula for converting nominal cash flows at a future period ‘t' to real cash flows is Real Cash Flow = (Nominal cash flow)/(1 + inflation rate). Effect of Risk on Discount Rate: Although both the preference for current consumption, and expected inflation affect the present value of all cash flows not all cash flows are equally predictable. A promised cash might not be delivered for a number of reasons: the promisor (lnterest and investment not received as company winds up) might default on the payment- the promisee might not be around to receive payment - (might have died) or some other contingency or
  • 24. some happening may intervene to prevent the promised payment or to reduce it. The greater the uncertainty associated with a cash flow in the future, the higher the discount rate used to calculate the present value of this cash flow will be and the present value of that cash flow will consequently be lower. Example You have decided to invest in a construction of an office building as it is worth more than it costs- it has positive net present value. To calculate how much it is worth- would have to pay to achieve the same pay off by investing directly in securities. The project's future value is equal to its future income discounted at the rate of return offered by these securities. We can say this another way. Our building venture is worth undertaking because its rate of return exceeds its cost of capital. The rate of return is simply the profit as a proportion of the initial outlay. Return = Profit/Investment =(5,00,000-4,30,000)/4,30,000 =(70,000) /(4,30,000) = 0.163 about 16 per cent The cost of capital is once again the return foregone by not investing in securities. If the office building is as risky as investing in stock market securities where the expected return is 14 per cent then the return forgone is 14 per cent. Since the 16 per cent return on the office building exceeds the 14 per cent opportunity cost, you should go ahead with the project. Hence we have two equivalent decision rules for capital investment. · Net present value rule. Accept investments that have positive net present values. · Rate of return rule. Accept investments that offer rates of return in excess of their opportunity costs of capital 1.6 DISCOUNTING A SIMPLE CASH FLOW - WHY IT IS IMPORTANT Discounting a cash flow converts it into present value rupees and enables the user to do several things. First, once cash flows are converted into present value rupees, they can be aggregated and compared. Second, if present values are estimated correctly the user should be indifferent between the future cash flow and the present value of the cash flow.
  • 25. Other things remaining equal, the present value of a cash flow will decrease as the discount rate increases and continue to decrease the further into the future the cash flow occurs. Thus present value is a decreasing function of the discount rate. 1.7COMPOUNDING A CASH FLOW - WHY IT IS IMPORTANT Current cash flows can be moved into the future by compounding the cash flow at the appropriate discount rate. The future value of a simple cash flow is Future Value of a Simple Cash Flow = CFo (1+ r)' where CF o = Cash Flow Now ,r = Discount Rate Again, the compounding effect increases with both the discount rate and the compounding period. Compounding. is the process by which cash flows are converted from present value to future value rupees. Ibbotson and Sinquefield's Study As the length of the holding period is extended, small differences in discount rates can lead to large differences in future value. In a study of returns on stocks and bonds between 1926 and 1992, Ibbotson and Sinquefield found that stocks on the average made 12.4 per cent Treasury Bonds made 5.2 percent, and Treasury Bills made 3.6 per cent. Assuming that these returns continue into the future, the table below provides the future value of dollar 100 invested n each category at the end off a number of holding periods - 1 year, 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, 30 years and 40 years. The differences in future value from investing at these different rates of return are small for short compounding periods( such as one year) but become larger as the compounding period is extended. For instance, with a 40 year time horizon, the future value of investing in stocks, at an average return of 12.4 per cent, is more than 12 times larger than the future value of investing in Treasury bonds at an average return of 5.2 per cent and more than 25 times the future value of investing in Treasury Bills at an average return of 3.6 per cent. Future Value of Investments - Asset Classes Holding Period Stocks T. Bonds T. Bills 1 112.40 105.20 103.60 5 179.40 128.85 119.34 10 321.86 166.02 142.43
  • 26. 20 1035.92 275.62 202.86 30 3334.18 457.59 288.93 40 10731.30 759.68 411.52 Concept Check Most pension funds allow individuals to decide where their pension funds will be invested- stocks (equity), bonds (debt) or money market accounts, etc. Where would you choose to invest your pension fund? Do you think your allocation should change as you get older ? Why? The Rule of 72- A shortcut to estimating the Compounding effect In a pinch, the rule of 72 provides an approximate answer to the question "How quickly will this amount double in value?" by dividing 72 by the discount on interest rate used in the analysis. Thus, a cash flow growing at 6 per cent will, double in value in approximately 12 years, while a cash flow growing at 9 percent will double in value in approximately 8 years. Effective Interest Rate This is the true rate of interest, taking into account the compounding effects of more frequent interest payments. The Frequency of Discounting and Compounding The frequency of compounding affects both the future and present values of cash flows. In the examples above, the Cash flows were assumed to be discounted and compounded annually - that is, interest payments and income were computed at the end of each year, based on the balance at the beginning of each year. In some cases however the interest may be computed more frequently, such as on a monthly or semi annual basis. In these cases, the present and future values may be very different from those computed on annual basis; the stated interest rate on an annual basis can deviate significantly from the effective or true interest rate. The effective interest rate can be computed as follows. Effective Interest Rate= (1+Stated Annual Interest Rate) n --------------------------------------------------- - 1 N Where N=number of compounding periods (2=semi annual;12 =monthly)
  • 27. For Instance, a 10 per cent annual interest rate, if there is semi annual compounding works out to an effective interest rate of Effective Interest Rate = (1.052 - 1) =(1.1025 - 1.0) = 10.25 per cent As compounding becomes continuous, the effective interest rate can be computed as follows: Effective Interest Rate = (exp )r - 1 where exp = exponential function r = stated annual interest rate The Table below provides the effective rates as a function of the compoundin! g frequency. Effect of Compounding Frequency on Effective Interest Rates Frequency Rate(% ) T Formula Effective Annual Rate(%) Annual 10 1 .10 10 Semi-Annual 10 2 (1 +.10/2)2 -1 10.25 Monthly 10 12 (1 +.10112)12 - 1 10.47, Daily 10 365 (1 +.10/365)365 - 1 10.5156 Continuous 10 continuous e,10 - 1 1 O5171 As you can see, as compounding becomes more frequent, the effective rate increases, and the present value of future cash flows decreases. For example the home loans which various companies offer you require monthly repayments and may have monthly compounding. Thus the interest rate quoted to you may be too low and actually quite deceptive. To get the effective Annual rate you should use the formula above and see what the actual effective interest rate is. Annuity An annuity is a constant cash flow occurring at regular intervals of time. Annuities
  • 28. An annuity is a constant cash flow that occurs at regular intervals at fixed period of time. Defining A to be the annuity time, the time line for an annuity may be drawn as follows: A A A A 0 1 2 3 4 An annuity can occur at the end of each period, as in this time line, or at the,; beginning of each period. Present Value of an end-of-the period annuity The present value of an annuity can be calculated by taking each cash flow and discounting it back to the present and then adding up the present values. Alternatively, a formula can be used in the calculation. In the case of annuities that occur at the end of each period, this formula can be written as (1- 1 ) PV of an Annuity =PV(A, r, n)=A ( (1+r)n ) ( r ) where A = Annuity r = Discount Rate n = Number of years Accordingly the notation used internationally for the present value of an. annuity is PV(A, r, n). Suppose you start a rent-a-car business and want to buy an automobile. You have choice of buying the car cash down for Rs 400,000 or paying Rs 90,000 a year for five years for the same car. What would you rather do, if the opportunity cost is 12% then calculate your decision? PV of Rs 90,000 each year for the next 5 years 1 ( 1 - -------) ( 5) = 90,000 ( (1.12) = 3,24,429.75
  • 29. ( 0.12) Obviously it is better to take the auto loan rather than pay cash down and naturally no auto loan company or bank will come up with such a scheme. The present values of your instalments versus cash down will always be higher but if you do not have the money right now or you can get a higher return by using this loan then it is worthwhile taking the loan. Thus you will also have to look 'into your inflows by hiring out the carls in your rent-a-car business. When the present values of your instalment payments exceed the cash down price it is better to pay cash down and acquire the asset. Alternatively above you could have discounted each instalment separately land added up the present values for all five and arrived at the same figure. Nowadays spreadsheets like excel are used to calculate the values of different annuities or using advanced programme calculators which all insurance company agents use. Thus using the formulas programmed in the spreadsheet and changing the variables like amount, time and rate of interest/discount factor you can calculate the present value of different annuities and take financial decisions both personal and commercial. Concept Check Often you have a choice of buying an asset like a car, computer, plane, etc. Is it appropriate to compare the present value of just your lease payments to your purchase price? Why or why not? Future Value of End-of-the-Period Annuities n some cases, an individual may plan to set aside a fixed annuity each period for a number of periods and will want to know how much he or she will have at the end of the period. The future value of an end-of-the-period annuity can be calculated as follows FV of an annuity = FV(A, r ,n)= A{ (1+r)n - 1} r Thus the standard notation widely practiced for Future Value of an annuity is FV( A, r , n) Concept Check Knowing the future value formula can you calculate the future value of Rs 5000 tax exempted PPF you deposit every year for twenty years? Or for forty yean Assume you start at age 25 years.
  • 30. If it is taxed obviously you have a lower return. Juggling the above formula if you know the future value of what you have repay and you want to set aside a fixed sum even year so that you can repay the sum you can calculate the annuity. Thus Annuity given future value - which means you are given the future value and are looking for the annuity - A (FV, r, n) can be calculated as follow Annuity given the future value= A (FV, r, n) = FV{__r__} ( 1+r)n -1 Balloon Repayment Loan: A balloon Repayment loan refers to a Ioan on which only interest is paid for the life of the Ioan, and the-entire principal is paid at the end of the loan's life. Companies that borrow money using balloon repayment loans like bonds or debentures often set aside money in sinking funds during the life of the loan to ensure they have enough at maturity to pay the principal on the loan or the face value of the bonds. Thus any company will have to set aside a fixed amount each year till the date of redeeming of bonds/ debentures to avoid defaulting on repayment to bondholders or debenture holders. The size of the sinking fund will vary with the change in interest rate. Sinking Fund: A sinking fund is a fund to which firms make annual contributions in order to have enough funds to meet a large financial liability in future. Concept Check Do Insurance Companies and Pension Funds provide for sinking funds? When insurance is only a contingent/uncertain liability why do these companies also provide for sinking funds? Effect of Annuities at the Beginning of Each Year The annuities we talked about till now are end of the period cash flows. Both the present and future values are affected if the cash flow occurs at the beginning of each period instead of the end. To illustrate this effect, consider an annuity of Rs 100 at the end of each year for the next four years,with a discount rate of 10%. Rs 100 Rs 100 Rs 100 Rs 100 0 10% 1 10% 2 10% 3 10% 4
  • 31. 0 1 2 3 4 Rs 100 Rs 100 Rs 100 Rs 100 Rs 100 Fig 1.4 Because the first of these annuities occurs right now, and the remaining cash flows take the form of an end-of-the-period annuity over three years. The present value of this annuity can be written as follows: PV of Rs 100 at beginning = 100 + 100[1- 1___ 3 of each of next four year 1.10__ 0.10 In general, the present value of a beginning – of- a- period annuity over an year can be written as follows PV of Period Annuities at beginning = A + A [1-__1_ ] of each of next n years (1+r) n-1 _________ r This present value will be higher than the present value of an equivalen to annuity at the end of each period. The future value of a beginning-of-a-period annuity typically can be estimated by allowing for one additional period of compounding for each cash flow: PV of Period Annuities at beginning = A (1+r) (1+r) n-1 of each of next n years _________ r This future value will be higher than the future value of an equivalent annuity at the end of each period. Thus if you invest your annuity at the beginning of each year instead of the end of each year, your future value will be higher.
  • 32. Growing Annuities A growing annuity is a cash flow that grows at a constant rate for a specified period of time. If A is the current cash flow, and g is the expected growth rate,; the time line for a growing annuity is as follows: I A(1+ g)1 A(1+ g) 2 A(1+ g)3 A(1+ g)4 0 1 2 3 4 Note that to qualify as a growing annuity, the growth rate in each period ha~ to be the same as the growth rate in the prior period. The Process of Discounting a Growing Annuity The present value of a growing annuity can be estimated by using the following formula: PV of a Growing Annuity = A(1+g) { 1 _ (1 + g)" } (1+r)" r – 9 The present value of a growing annuity can be estimated in all cases but one - if the growth rate is equal to the discount rate. In that case, the preseni value is equal to the nominal sums of the annuities over the period, without the growth effect. PV of a Growing Annuity for n years (when r = g) = nA It is important to note that the expanded formulation works even when th~ growth rate is greater than the discount rate. Perpetuity A perpetuity is a constant cash flow paid (or received) at regular time intervals forever.
  • 33. Thus a lifetime pension can be considered as perpetually or rentals received from exploitation of land which is passed on from generation to generation. The present value of a perpetuity can be written as PV of Perpetuity = A r A Console Bond is a bond that has no maturity and pays a fixed coupon (rate of interest). Assume that you have a 6 per cent coupon console bond. The original face value = Rs 1000. The current value of this bond if the interest rate is 9 per cent is as follows. Current value of Console Bond = Rs 6010.09 = Rs 667 The value of a Console bond will be equal to its face value only if the coupon rate is equal to the interest rate. In this case Rs 1000, Le. 60/0.06 Growing Perpetuties A growing perpetuity is a cash flow that is expected to grow at a constant rate. forever. The present value of a growing perpetuity can be-written as - PV of Growing Perpetuity = C___ (r - g) A growing perpetuity is a constant cash flow, growing at a constant rate, and paid at regular time intervals forever. Although a growing annuity and a growing perpetuity share several features, the fact that a growing perpetuity lasts forever puts constraints on the growth rate. It has to be less than the discount rate for the formula to work. Recommended Readings Financial Management By Khan & Jain
  • 34. CAPITAL EXPENDITURE DECISIONS OBJECTIVES This chapter provides a broad overview of the field of project appraisal and capital budgeting. It is divided into five sections as follows: · Capital expenditures: importance and difficulties · Phases of capital budgeting · Levels of decision-making · Facets of project analysis · Feasibility study: a schematic diagram · Objectives of capital budgeting CAPITAL EXPENDITURE DECISIONS Capital Expenditures: Importance and Difficulties
  • 35. Importance Capital expenditure decisions often represent the most important decisions taken by a firm. Their importance stems from three inter-related reasons: Long-term effects: The consequences of capital expenditure decisions extend far into the future. The scope of current manufacturing activities of a firm is governed largely by capital expenditures in the past. Likewise current capital expenditure decisions provide the framework for future activities. Capital investment decisions have an enormous bearing on the basic character of a firm. Irreversibility: The market for used capital equipment in general is iIl- organised. Further, for some types of capital equipments,custom made to meet specific requirement, the market may virtually be non-existent. Once such an equipment is acquired, reversal of decision may mean scrapping the capital equipment. Thus, a wrong capital investment decision, often cannot be reversed without incurring a substantial loss ● Substantial outlays: Capital expenditures usually involve substantial outlays. An integrated steel plant, for example, involves an outlay of several thousand millions. Capital costs tend to increase with advanced. Difficulties While capital expenditure decisions are extremely important, they also post difficulties which stem from three principal sources: . ● Measurement problems: Identifying and measuring the costs and benefits of a capital expenditure proposal tends to be difficult. This is more so when a capital expenditure has a bearing on some other activities of the firm (like cutting into the sales of some existing product) or has some intangible consequences (like improving the morale of workers). ● Uncertainty: A capital expenditure decision involves costs and benefits that extend far into future. It is impossible to predict exactly what will happen in future. Hence, there is usually a great deal of uncertainty characterising the costs and benefits of a capital expenditure decision. ● Temporal spread: The costs and benefits associated with a capital expenditure decision are spread out over a long period of time, usually 10-20 years for industrial projects and 20-50 years for infrastructural projects. Such a temporal spread creates some problems in estimating discount rates and establishing equivalences. PHASES OF CAPITAL BUDGETING
  • 36. Capital budgeting is a complex process which may be divided into five broad phases: planning, analysis, selection, implementation, and review. Exhibit 11.1portrays the relationship among these phases. The solid arrows reflect the main sequence: planning precedes analysis; analysis precedes selection; and so on. The dashed arrows indicate that the phases of capital budgeting are not related in a simple, sequential manner. Instead, there are several feedback loops reflecting the iterative nature of the process. Planning The planning phase of a firm's capital budgeting process is concerned with the articulation of its broad investment strategy and the generation and preliminary screening of project proposals. The investment strategy of the firm delineates the broad areas or types of investments the firm plans to undertake. This provides the framework which shapes, guides, and circumscribes the identification of individual project opportunities. Exhibit 11.1 Capital Budgeting Process
  • 37. Once a project proposal is identified, it needs to be examined. To begin with, a preliminary project analysis is done. A prelude to the full blown feasibility study, this exercise is meant to assess (i) whether the project is prima facie worthwhile to justify a feasibility study and (ii) What aspects of the project are critical to its viability and hence warrant an in-depth investigation. Analysis If the preliminary screening suggests that the project is prima facie worthwhile, detailed analysis of the marketing, technical, financial, economic, and ecological aspects is undertaken. The questions and issues raised in such a detailed analysis are described in the following section. The focus of this phase of capital expenditure decisions is on gathering, preparing, and summarising relevant information about various project proposals which are being considered for inclusion in the capital budget. Based on the information developed in this analysis, the stream of costs and benefits associated with the project can be defined. Selection Selection follows, and often overlaps, analysis. It addresses the question-Is the project worthwhile? A wide range of appraisal criteria have been suggested to judge the worthwhileness of a project. They are divided into two broad categories, viz., non-discounting criteria and discounting criteria. The principal non-discounting criteria are the payback period and the accounting rate of return. The key discounting criteria are the net present value, the internal rate of return, and the benefit cost ratio. The selection rules associated with these criteria are as follows: ________________________________________________________________ _ Criterion Accept Reject
  • 38. Payback period(PBP) PBP< target period PBP> Target period Accounting rate of return(ARR) ARR>target rate ARR<Target rate Net present value(NPV) NPV>0 NPV<0 Internal rate of return(IRR) IRR>cost of capital IRR< cost of capital Benefit cost ratio(BCR) BCR>1 BCR<1 ________________________________________________________________ _ To apply the various appraisal criteria suitable cut-off values (hurdle rate target rate, and cost of capital) have to be specified. These essentially a function of the mix of financing and the level of project risk. While the former can be defined with relative ease, the latter truly tests the ability of the project evaluator. Indeed despite a wide range of tools and techniques for risk analysis (sensitivity analysis, scenario analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, decision tree analysis portfolio theory, capital asset pricing model, and so on), risk analysis remains the most intractable part of the project evaluation exercise. Implementation The implementation phase for an industrial project, which involves setting of manufacturing facilities, consists of several stages: (i) project and engineering designs, (ii) negotiations and contracting, (iii) construction, (iv) training, and (v) plant commissioning. What is done in these stages is briefly described below _ _______________________________________________________________ _ Stages Concerned with Project and engineering designs Site probing and prospecting, preparation of blueprint and plant designs , plant engineering, selection of specific machineries and equipment. Negotiations and contracting Negotiating and drawing up of legal contracts with respect to project financing, acquisition of technology, construction of building and civil works, provision of
  • 39. utilities, supply of machinery and equipment, marketing arrangements, etc. Construction Site preparation, construction of buildings and civil works, erection and installation of machinery and equipment. Training Training of engineers, technicians, and workers. (This can proceed simultaneously along with the construction work) Plant commissioning Start up of the plant. (This is a brief but commissioning is technically crucial stage in the project development cycle.) Translating an investment proposal into a concrete project is a complex time- consuming, and risk-fraught task. Delays in implementation,which is common, can lead to substantial cost overruns. For expeditious implementation at a reasonable cost, the following are helpful. 1. Adequate formulation of projects: A major reason for delay is inadequate formulation of projects. Put differently, if necessary homework in terms of preliminary studies and comprehensive and detailed formulation of the project is not done, many surprises and shocks are likely to Spring on the way. Hence, the need for adequate formulation of the project cannot be over- emphasised. 2. Use of the principle of responsibility accounting : Assigning specific responsibilities to project managers for completing the project within the defined time frame and cost limits is helpful in expeditious execution and cost control. 3. Use of network techniques: For project planning and control two basic techniques are available - PERT (Programme Evaluation Review Technique) and CPM (Critical Path Method). These techniques have, of late, merged and are being referred to by a common terminology, that is network techniques. With the help of these techniques, monitoring becomes easier. Review Once the project is commissioned the review phase has to be set in motion. Performance review should be done periodically to compare actual performance with projected performance. A feedback device is useful in several ways: (i) It
  • 40. throws light on how realistic were the assumptions underlying the project; (ii) It provides a documented log of experience that is highly valuable in future decision-making; (iii) It suggests corrective action to be taken in the light of actual performance; (iv) It helps in uncovering judgemental biases; (v) It induces a desired caution among project sponsors. LEVELS OF DECISION-MAKING Operating Administrative Strategic decisions decisions decision Where is the decision Lower level Middle level Top level taken management management management How structured is the Routine Semi-structured Unstructured decision What is the level of Minor resource Moderate resource Major resource resource commitment commitment commitment commitment What is the time horizon Short-term Medium term Long-term The three levels (operating, administrative, and strategic) of decision making can be readily applied to capital expenditure budgeting decision. Examples are given below: Operating capital budgeting decision : Minor office equipment Administrative capital budgeting decision : Balancing equipment Strategic capital budgeting decision : Diversification project While the methods and techniques covered in this book are applicable to all levels of capital budgeting decision. Our discussion will mainly be oriented towards administrative and strategic budgeting decisions. Project Appraisal and Control techniques PROFITABILITY STUDY-VARIOUS FACTS OF PROJECT ANALYSIS The important facets of project analysis are: · Market analysis · Technical analysis
  • 41. · Financial analysis · Economic analysis · Ecological analysis Market Analysis Market analysis is concern with primarily two questions: · What would be the aggregate demand of the proposed product/service in future · What would be the market share of the project under appraisal? To answer the above question, the market analyst requires a wide variety of information and appropriate forecasting methods. The kinds of information required are: ● Consumption trends in the past and the present consumption ● Past and present supply position ● Production possibilities and constraints ● Import and exports ● Structure of competition ● Cost structure ● Elasticity of demand ● Consumer behaviour, innovations, motivations, attitudes, references and requirements ● Distribution channels and marketing policies in useful ● Administrative, technical and legal constraints Technical Analysis Analysis of the technical and engineering aspects of a project needs to be done continually when a project is formulated. Technical analysis seeks to determine whether the prerequisites for the successful commissioning of the Project have
  • 42. been considered and reasonably good choices have been made with respect to location, size, process, etc. The important questions raised in technical analysis are: · Whether the preliminary tests and studies have been done or provided for? · Whether the availability of raw materials, power, and other inputs has been established? · Whether the selected scale of operation is optimal? · Whether the production process chosen is suitable? · Whether the equipment and machines chosen are appropriate? · Whether the auxiliary equipments and supplementary engineering works have been provided for ? · Whether provision has been made for the treatment of effluents? · Whether the proposed layout of the site, buildings, and plant is sound? · Whether work schedules have been realistically drawn up? · Whether the technology proposed to be employed is appropriate from the social point of view? Financial Analysis Financial analysis seeks to ascertain whether the proposed project will be financially viable in the sense of being able to meet the burden of servicing debt and whether the proposed project will satisfy the return expectations of those who provide the capital. The aspects which have to be looked into while conducting financial appraisal are: · Investment outlay and cost of project · Means of financing · Cost of capital · Projected profitability · Break-even point · Cash flows of the project · Investment worthwhileness judged in terms of various criteria of merit · Projected financial position · Level of risk Economic Analysis Economic analysis, also referred to as social cost benefit analysis, is concerned
  • 43. with judging a project from the larger social point of view. In such an evaluation the focus is on the social costs and benefits of a project which may often be different from its monetary costs and benefits. The questions sought to be answered in social cost benefits analysis are: ● What are the direct economic benefits and costs of the project measured in terms of shadow (efficiency) prices and not in terms of market prices? ● What would be the impact of the project on the distribution of income in the society? ● What would be the impact of the project on the level of savings and investment in the society? ● What would be the contribution of the project towards the fulfillment of certain merit wants like self-sufficiency, employment, and social order? Ecological Analysis In recent years, environmental concerns have assumed a great deal of significance-and rightly so. Ecological analysis should be done particularly for major projects which have significant ecological implications like power plants and irrigation schemes, and environmental-polluting industries (like bulk drugs, chemicals, and leather processing-). The key questions r~sed in ecological analysis are: . What is the likely damage caused by the project to the environment? . What is the cost of restoration measures required to ensure that the damage to the environment is contained within acceptable limits? Exhibit 11.2 summarises the key issues considered indifferent types of analysis: Exhibit 11.2 Key Issues in Project Analysis Market Analysis ________Potential Market Market Share Technical Analysis _________Technical Viability Sensible Choices Financial Analysis ___________Risk Return Economics Analysis ___________Benefits and Cost in shadow Prices Other Impact Ecological Analysis _________ Environmental Damage Restoration Measures
  • 44. Feasibility Study: A Schematic Diagram We have looked at the five broad phases of capital budgeting and examined the key facets of project analysis. The feasibility study is concerned with the first three phases of capital budgeting, viz., planning, analysis, and selection (evaluation) and involves market, technical, financial, economic, and ecological analysis. Objectives of Capital Budgeting Financial theory, in general, rests on the premise that the goal of financial management (which subsumes investment decision-making) should be to maximise the present wealth of the firm's equity shareholders. For a firm whose equity shares are actively traded on the stock market, the wealth of the equity shareholders is reflected in the market value of the equity shares. Hence, the goal of financial management for such firms should be to maximise the market value of equity shares. The pursuit of the welfare of equity shareholders is justified on the grounds that it contributes to an efficient allocation of capital in the economy. The bases for allocation of savings in the economy are expected return and risk. Since equity share prices are based on expected return and risk, efforts to maximise equity share prices would result in an efficient allocation of resources. Another justification may be provided for the goal of shareholder wealth maximisation. Equity shareholders provide the venture (risk) capital required to start a business firm and appoint the management of the firm indirectly through the board of directors. Hence, it behoves on corporate managements to promote the welfare of equity shareholders. What about a public sector firm the equity stock of which, being fully owned, by the government, is not traded on the stock market? In such a case, the goal of financial management should be to maximise the present value of the stream of equity returns. Of course, in determining the present value of the stream of equity returns, an appropriate discount rate has to be applied. A similar observation may be made with respect to other companies whose equity shares are either not traded or very poorly traded. Alternatives Are there other goals, besides the goal of maximum shareholder wealth