HỌC TỐT TIẾNG ANH 11 THEO CHƯƠNG TRÌNH GLOBAL SUCCESS ĐÁP ÁN CHI TIẾT - CẢ NĂ...
Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013
1. COME LAVOREREMO (E
VIVREMO) NEL FUTURO?
Scarica la presentazione da: http://bit.ly/futureforum2013venier
FRANCESCO VENIER
+39 040 9188 103
venier@univ.trieste.it
www.checovenier.com
Docente di Social Media Strategy and Personal Branding @ MIB School of Management
www.mib.edu
Docente di Organizational Behavior and Design @ Università di Trieste
www.units.it
4. Annu. l Pt · ductivity·~Cha tnge in the I ion-·a1rm
a ro
N f
Business.S.e ctor b~y De· ade,1· S0s-2000s
c
9
3.0%
2.7%
2.5%
2.5%
2.2%
2 .1%
L7%
1.6%
0.5%
0 .0%
-
1950-59
1960-69
1970-79
1980-89
Fii· ure 3 ..1: Prod uctivity g1ow th has been g row ing.
g
r
Statisti1
cs.
1.990-99
Source~
2000-09
BurHau of Labor
6. l 1n ~dex ~o~f ~Gr~o,wth
IR~e ,al
190
in
U.S~.
Rea1 GDP per Cap~ita1 a1
l
nd
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n
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o
o
160
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1975
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2008
Fii gure 3,3: Reali GD, per ~ca[pita has ~g rown s i gJ i fica.ntly f'a ster than reali median
.
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n
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e.
7. 45%
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Figu re 3 .4~: In tlhe ne'W mi~ lenni um, j ~ob g r~owt:h stalll s. Sou ree: BtJrea u of Labor
StatDsties_
8. U ,S. I e, l C~orp~orate Pr~ofits, AfterTa1 19~9~0-·2010
. R a
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(· ith
w
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1995
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e
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2000
2005
curtr~e nt re~co·v·ery. Sour~oe:
2010
Bureau of Economie
9. US Manufacturing, 1970-2010
Value Added vs Employment
2,000
-
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-
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~
c:
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o 1,600
a5
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1980
1985
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1995
2000
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2010
10. Changes irn
Wa;ge~s
for F1iiii-T'ime, F1uii~Year, I a le
u
M
U.S. Wo~r·ker~s,, 1 196~3-2 1008,
0.6
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o
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-0.1
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1983
1988
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2003
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High
S<:hool
Dnlpcut
! ir ure 3.5: Wa, es, hav~e· inc1eased 'f or those w'itlh the 1 ost edurcati,on ~ whillr fall ling
Fg
g
r
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e
f: r thos,e· · itih1thte· llea.st~ Souroe~: Acemoglu end Autor , nalys,is o, the Current
o
w
a
f
Popu~a1Uon Suruey · or ·1963-2008.
r
11. Unemployment rate, by education, 2007 and 2011
::oc)
• 2007
201 1
17.8%
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l h':.
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2r:
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Sour<e: t. > aia~js.s of b)SJC rto"''thV Cu·rerr l'op1.dat1•Jn
1
)U r J-?"i
m'ctoJ ata
12. What is the cause of this
more and more uneven
income distribution and
employment crisis/
stagnation?
14. The Second Half of the
Chessboard
— The Google car(truck?)
— IBM Deep Blue beats Kasparov
1997
— IBM Watson wins Jeopardy
2012
— Text readers/
Pattern recognition
(goodbye legions of lawyers
-only 60% accurate)
— Automated ‘call
centers’ (goodbye offshoring)
— GeoFluent (goodbye
translators)
— Vending machines for
… everything >
Retail jobs disappearing
16. “ … The audience then voted on the
identity of each composition.*
[Music theory professor and contest
organizer] Larson’s pride took a
ding when his piece was fingered as
that belonging to the computer.
When the crowd decided that
[algorithm] Emmy’s piece was the
true product of the late musician
[Bach], Larson winced.”
—Christopher Steiner,
Automate This: How Algorithms Came to Rule Our World
*There were three: Bach/Larson/Emmy-the-algorithm.
17. “ … Which haiku are human writing and which are
from a group of bits? Sampling centuries of
haiku, devising rules, spotting patterns, and
inventing ways to inject originality, Annie
[algorithm] took to the short Japanese sets of
prose the same way all of [Prof David] Cope’s.
algorithms tackled classical music. ‘In the end,
it’s just layers and layers of binary math, he
says. … Cope says Annie’s penchant for tasteful
originality could push her past most human
composers who simply build on work of the past.,
which, in turn, was built on older works. …” —
Christopher Steiner, Automate This: How Algorithms Came to Rule
Our World
19. “Algorithms have already written symphonies
as moving as those composed by
Beethoven, picked through legalese
better than a senior law partner,
diagnosed patients with more accuracy than a
doctor, written news articles with the
smooth hand of a seasoned reporter, and
driven vehicles on urban highways with far
better control than a human
driver.”
—Christopher Steiner: Automate This: How Algorithms Came to Rule the
World
20. “A bureaucrat is an
expensive
microchip.”
—Dan Sullivan, consultant and executive coach
21. “The median
worker is losing
the race against
the machine.”
—Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, The Race Against the Machine
22. “The root of our problem is not
that we’re in a Great Recession
or a Great Stagnation, but rather
that we are in the early
Great
Restructuring.
times of a
Our technologies are racing ahead,
but our skills and organizations
are lagging behind.”
Source: Race AGAINST the Machine, Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee
23. “In some sense you can
argue that the science
fiction scenario is already
starting to happen. The
computers are in control.
We just live in their
world.”
—Danny Hillis, The Connection Machine
24. The three effects of technology on work
• Technology is developed in order to be
“substitutive” of work. But this is just
technology’s first loop effect.
• The innovation changes the roles (hence
the power) of people and enables two
second loop effects that are human
centered and empower us to shape the
future of work with unprecedented
freedom. These effects are: “Integrative” &
“Innovative”
25. Technology has always changed
work (and society)
•
•
•
•
Agriculture -> Urban Civilization
Writing -> Philosophy
Press -> Science
Steam Engine -> Industrial Revolution
• Electric & Internal combustion engines
• Jet Engine and Radio/TV
• Computer/Internet -> Knowledge Economy
• Social Technologies – Big Data … ->???
33. Next-generation genomics
Energy storage
.......~····...
Fast, low-cost gene sequencing,
advanced big data analytics, and
synthetic biology ("writing" DNA)
Devices or systems that store energy
for later use, including batteries
_...:····... ~ 30 printing
..·.............· ~
...:· .....
Additive manufacturing techniques to
create objects by printing layers of
materia! based on digitai models
Advanced materials
Advanced o il an d gas
exploration and recovery
1,,,
....._.1~ ,,,
1
Materials designed to have superior
characteristics (e.g. , strength, weight,
conductivity) or functionality
Exploration and recovery techniq ues
that make extraction of unconventional
oil and gas economica!
Renewable energy
Generation of electricity from renewable
sources with reduced harmful climate
impact
~-~
SOUI CE: McKinsey Global lnstitute analysis
R
34. Speed, scope, and economie value at stake of 12 potentially economically disruptive technologies
Illustrative rates of technology improvement
and diffusion
Mobile
Internet
Illustrative groups, products, and
resources that could be impacted 1
Illustrative pools of economie value
that could be impacted 1
$5 million vs. $4002
4.3 billion
$1.7 trillion
Price of the fastest supercomputer in 1975 vs. that of
an iPhone 4 today, equal in performance (MFLOPS)
People remaining to be connected to the
Internet, potentially through mobile
Internet
$25 trillion
6x
Growth in sales of smartphones and tablets since
launch of iPhone in 2007
1 billion
Transaction and interaction workers,
nearly 40% of global workforce
GDP related to the Internet
lnteraction and transaction worker
employment costs, 70% of global
employment costs
.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Automation
of knowledge
work
100x
230+ million
$9+ trillion
lncrease in computing power from IBM's Deep Blue
(chess champion in 1997) to Watson (Jeopardy
winner in 2011 )
400+ million
lncrease in number of users of intelligent digitai
assistants like Siri and Google Now in last 5 years
Knowledge workers, 9% of global
workforce
1.1 billion
Smartphone users, with potential to use
automated digitai assistance apps
Knowledge worker employment costs,
27% of global employment costs
···~ -- ~·~·~ · ~·······i~i~·;~·~i- ~i··········3·ao%···························································································· :; ·i~i-iii·~~································································;s36" i~i-iii~;;·························································
~~
~~
~'~ ~
Things
lncrease in connected machine-to-machine devices
over past 5 years
80_90 %
Price decline in MEMS (microelectromechanical
systems) sensors in last 5 years
Things that could be connected to the
Internet across industries such as
manufacturing, health care, and mining
40 million
Annual deaths from chronic diseases
like Type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular
disease
Operating costs of key affected industries
(manufacturing , health care, and mining)
$4 trillion
Global health care spend on chronic
diseases
·········~~~~~;:;········f~~-~~~h:~~-~=·~:~:;·:~~::~~:~·;:;·~:;1·~;·················-~~:::··-···-···-···-···-··-···f~=~~·::-:::~·-··-···-···Monthly cost of owning a server vs. renting in
the cloud
Servers in the world
75-85%
320 million
Lower price for Baxter3 than a typical industriai robot
Manufacturing workers, 12% of global
workforce
250 million
Annual major surgeries
Enterprise IT spend
..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Advanced
robotics
170%
Growth in sales of industriai robots, 2009--11
$6 trillion
Manufacturing worker employment costs,
19% of global employment costs
$2-3 trillion
Cost of major surgeries
36. Circa 2013: Coming to Believe
1. The power to invent (and execute) is switching/
flipping rapidly/inexorably to the network. “Me” is
transitioning to “We”—as consumers and producers.
Nouns are giving way to gerunds—it’s an “ing”/
shapeshifting world!
2. The Internet must stay open and significantly
unregulated to enable, among other things, the
entrepreneurial spurt that will significantly underpin
world economic growth.
3. Entrepreneurial behavior and upstart entrepreneurial
enterprises have underpinned every monster shift in the
past, such as farm to factory. This time will likely be no
different.
4. An obsession with a “Fortune 500” of more or less
stable giants dictating “the way we do things” will likely
become an artifact of the past. (Though big
companies/"utilities" will not disappear.)
37. Circa 2013: Coming to Believe
5. There is simply no limit to invention or entrepreneurial
opportunities! (Please read twice.)
6. The new star bosses will be “wizards”/“maestros.”
7. Sources of sustained profitability will often be elusive in a
“soft-services world.”
8. Control and accountability will be a delicate dance. Now
you see it, now you don't ...
9. Trial and error, many many many trials and many many
many errors very very very rapidly will be the rule; tolerance
for and delight in rapid learning—and unlearning—will be a/
the most valued skill.
38. “We are in no danger of running
out of new combinations try. Even
if technology froze today, we have
more possible ways of configuring
the different applications,
machines, tasks, and distribution
channels to create new processes
and products than we could ever
exhaust.” —Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, Race Against the
Machine: How the Digital Revolution Is Accelerating Innovation, Driving
Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy
40. “The prospect of contracting a gofer on an a
la carte basis is enticing. For instance, wouldn’t it
be convenient if I could outsource someone to write
a paragraph here, explaining the history of
outsourcing in America? Good idea! I went ahead
and commissioned just such a paragraph from Get
Friday, a ‘virtual personal assistant- firm based in
Bangalore. … The paragraph arrived in my in-box
ten days after I ordered it. It was 1,356 words.
There is a bibliography with eleven sources. … At
$14 an hour for seven hours of work, the cost came
to $98. …”
—Patricia Marx, “Outsource Yourself,” The New Yorker, 01.14.2013 (Marx
describes in detail contracting out everything associated with hosting her book
club — including the provision of “witty” comments on Proust, since she
hadn’t had time to read the book—excellent comments only set her
back $5;
the writer/contractor turned out to be a 14year-old girl from New Jersey.)
41. “Be the best.
It’s the only
market that’s
not crowded.”
From: Retail Superstars: Inside the 25 Best
Independent Stores in America, George Whalin
42. Circa 2013: Coming to Believe
10. “Gamers” instinctively “get” the idea of lots of trials, lots
of errors, as fast as possible; for this reason among
many, “the revolution” is/will be to a very significant
degree led by youth.
11. Women may well flourish to the point of domination in
new leadership roles in these emergent/ethereal settings
that dominate the landscape—power will be exercised
almost entirely indirectly (routine for most women—more
than for their male counterparts), and will largely/elusively
inhabit the network per se.
12. The “Brand You/Brand Me” idea is alive and well and
getting healthier every day and is … not optional. Fact is, we
mostly all will have to behave/be entrepreneurial tapdancers
to survive let alone thrive. (Again, the under-35 set already
seem mostly to get this; besides, this was the norm until 90
years ago.)
44. “The popularity of an unwinnable game like
Tetris completely upends the stereotype
that gamers are highly competitive people
who care more about winning than
anything else. Competition and winning are
not defining traits of games—nor are they
defining interests of the people who love to
play them. Many gamers would rather keep
playing than win. In high-feedback games,
the state of being intensely engaged may
ultimately be more pleasurable than the
satisfaction of winning.”
—Jane McGonigal, Reality Is Broken: Why Games Make Us Better and How
They Can Change the World
45. “It may have once been true
that computer games
encouraged us to act more with
machines than with each other.
But if you still think of gamers
as loners, then you’re not
playing games.”
— Jane McGonigal, Reality Is Broken: Why Games Make Us Better and How
They Can Change the World
46. Circa 2013: Coming to Believe
10. “Gamers” instinctively “get” the idea of lots of trials, lots
of errors, as fast as possible; for this reason among
many, “the revolution” is/will be to a very significant
degree led by youth.
11. Women may well flourish to the point of domination in
new leadership roles in these emergent/ethereal settings
that dominate the landscape—power will be exercised
almost entirely indirectly (routine for most women—more
than for their male counterparts), and will largely/elusively
inhabit the network per se.
12. The “Brand You/Brand Me” idea is alive and well and
getting healthier every day and is … not optional. Fact is, we
mostly all will have to behave/be entrepreneurial tapdancers
to survive let alone thrive. (Again, the under-35 set already
seem mostly to get this; besides, this was the norm until 90
years ago.)
47. “I speak to you with a feminine voice. It’s the voice of
democracy, of equality. I am certain, ladies and
that this will
be the women’s
century.
gentlemen,
In the Portuguese language,
words such as life, soul, and hope are of the feminine
gender, as are other words like courage and sincerity.”
—President Dilma Rousseff of Brazil, 1st woman to keynote the UN General Assembly
48. Bachelor’s degree, age
25-34: 40% F; 30% M
Graduate degree
students: 60% F; 40% M
Source: Sydney Morning Herald /26.03.12
49. Circa 2013: Coming to Believe
10. “Gamers” instinctively “get” the idea of lots of trials, lots
of errors, as fast as possible; for this reason among
many, “the revolution” is/will be to a very significant
degree led by youth.
11. Women may well flourish to the point of domination in
new leadership roles in these emergent/ethereal settings
that dominate the landscape—power will be exercised
almost entirely indirectly (routine for most women—more
than for their male counterparts), and will largely/elusively
inhabit the network per se.
12. The “Brand You/Brand Me” idea is alive and well and
getting healthier every day and is … not optional. Fact is, we
mostly all will have to behave/be entrepreneurial tapdancers
to survive let alone thrive. (Again, the under-35 set already
seem mostly to get this; besides, this was the norm until 90
years ago.)
50. Circa 2013: Coming to Believe
13. Individual performance and accountability will be more
important than ever, but will be measured by one’s peers
along dimensions such as reliability, trustworthiness,
engagement, flexibility, willingness to spend a majority of
one’s time helping others with no immediate expected
return.
14. ICT is ripping through traditional jobs at an accelerating
pace. Virtually no job, no matter how “high end,” will remain
in a recognizable way within 15-25 years. It’s as simple—
and as traumatic—as that.
15. Wholesale/continuous/intense re-education (forgetting
as well as learning) is a lifelong pursuit/imperative; parent
Goal #1: Don’t kill the curiosity with which the child is born!
51. +400,000*/-2,000,000**
“new computing technologies
that destroy middle-class [whitecollar] jobs even as they create
jobs for highly skilled workers
who can exploit them”
*Managerial jobs
added USA 2007-2012
**White-collar jobs lost USA 2007-2012
Source: Financial Times, page 1, 0402.13
(“Clerical Staff Bears Brunt of US Jobs Crisis”)
52. “I believe that ninety
percent of whitecollar jobs in the U.S.
will be either
destroyed or altered
beyond recognition in
the next 10 to 15
years.”
(Tom Peters 22 May 2000/
Time magazine)
54. Fab Labs/Fabrication Labs/Fabulous
Labs/digital fabrication machine/
parts themselves are digitalized/
3-D printer /MIT
Center for Bits and Atoms/ Prof Neil
Gershenfeld/ $5K: “large-format
computer-controlled milling machine
can make all the parts in an IKEA flatpack box” customized for the
individual/Etc./Etc.
Source: “How to Make Almost Anything,” Beil Gershenfeld, Foreign Affairs/11-12.2012
55. Multiple Choice Examination
You will lose your job to;
choose one …
(1) An offshore contractor?
(2) A computer? (White collar)
(3) A robot? (Blue collar)
Source: Adapted from Dan Pink
56. Multiple Choice Examination
You will lose your job to;
choose one …
(1) An offshore contractor?
(2) A computer? (White collar)
(3) A robot? (Blue collar)
(4) A re-tooled value-added
“Brand You”?
Source: Adapted from Dan Pink
57. “Knowledge becomes
obsolete incredibly fast.
The continuing
professional
education of adults is
the No. 1 industry in
the next 30 years …
mostly on line.”
—Peter Drucker
58. "The illiterate of the
21st Century will not
be those who cannot
read or write, but
those who cannot
learn, unlearn and
relearn."
—Alvin Toffler
59. We need “Figure it Out” Jobs
“With GE’s future success dependent
on creative innovation, we are now
continually making such demands of
our people. We expect employees to
thrive in uncertainty, take initiative,
and respond resiliently when their
ideas fall short.”
• Beth Comstock 2013
Chief Marketing Officer @ General Electric
60. “You must realize that how you invest your human
capital matters as much as how you invest your
financial capital. Its rate of return determines your
Take a job for what it
teaches you, not for what it pays.
Instead of a potential employer
asking, ‘Where do you see yourself in
5 years?’ you’ll ask, ‘If I invest my
mental assets with you for 5 years,
how much will they appreciate? How
much will my portfolio of career
options grow?’ ” —Stan Davis & Christopher Meyer,
future options.
futureWEALTH
62. “All human beings are
entrepreneurs. When we were
in the caves we were all selfemployed . . . finding our food, feeding
ourselves. That’s where human history
began . . . As civilization came we
suppressed it. We became labor
because they stamped us, ‘You are
labor.’ We forgot that we are
entrepreneurs.”
—Muhammad Yunus/
The News Hour/PBS/1122.2006
63. “We are CEOs of our own
companies.
ME inc.
To be in business today, our
most important job is to be
head marketer for the brand
called you”
Tom Peters
66. Social Technologies
• We define Social Technologies as digital
technologies that share three
characteristics:
1. Are enabled by information technology
2. Provide distributed right to create, add
and/or modify content
3. Enable distributed access to consume
content
67.
68. Social technologies incllude a broad range of applications
that can be used both by consumers and enterprises
Upload, share, and
comment on photos,
videos, and audio
Keep connected
through personal and
business profi1
les
Connect with friends
and strangers to
play games
Harness collective
knowledge and
generate collectively
derived answers
Co-create content;
coordinate joint
projects and tasks
Discuss topics in open
communities; rapidly
access expertise
l NOT EXHAUSTIVE
PubHsh and
discuss opinions
and experiences
Social
analytics 1
Evaluate andrate
products, services,
and experiences;
share opinions
Purchasing in groups,
on social platforms,
and sharing opinions
Search, create and adapt
articles; rapidly access
stored knowledge
1 Social analytics is the practice of measuring and analyzing interactions across social techno l og~y platforms to inform decisions.
SOURCIE : McKinsey Globallnstitute analysis
69. Ten ways social technologies can add value in organizational functions
within and across enterprises
----------------------------------------:
0
Organizational functions
Derive customer insights 1
:
Across enti re enterprise
9
l
----------------------------------------J
1
Co-create products
2
3
Derive customer insights
5
Use social technologies for marketing
comm unicationlinteraction
6
Generate and foster sales leads
7
Business
support2
Use social to distribute business processes
4
Customer
servi ce
Leverage social to forecast and monitor
Social commerce
8
Use social
technology to
improve intra- or
inter-organ izational
collaboration and
communication
Provide customer care via social
technologies
10
Use social
technology to
match talent to
tasks
lmprove collaboration and communication ;
match talent to tasks3
1 Deriving customer insights for product development is included in customer insights (lever 4) under marketing and sal es.
2 Business support functions are corporate or administrative activities such as human resources or finance and accounting.
3 Levers 9 and 1O apply to business support functions as they do across the other fun ctional value areas.
SOURCE: McKinsey Global lnstitute analysis
70. Potential value and ease of capture vary across sectors
IUS EXAMPLE
e
Directional
HigherJ
Relati1V9 size of
G DP contribution
Software ~
Education-e
and Internet •
Professional
services
Health care
providers
Pha rmaceuticals
•
Value
potenti al
e
Energy
Consumer
products
Food and
beverage
processmg
Lo ca l
'
National
Chemicals
government
Lower
Media and
entertainment
•
Banking
Transportation
lnsurance
manufacturing
wholesale
Construction
Higher
Lower
Ease of capturing value potential
SOURCE: McKinsey Global lnstitute analysis
l
71. Value available through collaborati1 and other benefits of
on
social technologies varies across industries
•
Collaboration
Other benefits
o/o
63
49
57
48
38
30
CPG
P&C
Life
Retail
insurance insurance banking
SOUI CE: McKinsey Global l nstitute anall ysis
R
34
24
Professional
serv1ces
SemiAuto
conductors
Aerospace
Average
72. What is the
groundswell?
“A social trend in
which people use
technologies to
get the things they
need from each
other, rather than
from traditional
institutions like
corporations.”
110. MOOCs like
Coursera.org, Udacity.org
give courses online for FREE
From TOP Universities like MIT,
Stanford, Harvard…
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/04/booming/answers-for-middle-aged-seekers-of-moocs-part-1.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/11/booming/advice-for-middle-age-seekers-of-moocs-part-2.html
111.
112.
113. lt is commonplace to h ire vendors an d
contractors fra m across the planet.
114. One in four organizations plans to
increase spending an outsourcing
by 25°/o or more this year.
SOURCE
135. Our business in life is not to get ahead of others, butto get ahead of ourselves
'' +
~
Email Me
Professar of management @ Trieste University
Associate Dean far Executive Education @ mib.edu
Business model innovation scholar and management education architect
... but also local food heritage entrepreneur,
slowfood, wine, travel & photography addict,
BMW GS biker an d yes, F16 fighter pilot ;-)
My purpose ls to enable people and organlzatlons
to defy outmoded business models by lnnovatlng
management practlces through the professlonal use
of soclal technologles
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136. Bibliografia (ita)
•
Brynjolfsson E., McAfee A. (2011) In gara con le macchine: La technologia aiuta il lavoro?
http://amzn.to/16vh8TF
•
Donkin R. (2012) Il futuro del lavoro
http://bit.ly/FuturoDelLavoro
•
Hoffman R., Cosnocha B. (2013) The Start-up of You: Adapt to the Future, Invest in Yourself, and
Transform Your Career
http://bit.ly/SARTUPOFYOU
•
Li C. & Bernoff J. (2011) Groundswell: Winning in a World Transformed by Social Technologies
http://bit.ly/GroundswellLiBernoff
•
McGonigal, J. (2010) La Realtà in Gioco: Perchè I giochi ci rendono migliori e possono cambiare il
mondo
http://bit.ly/RealtaInGioco
•
Moretti E. (2013) La nuova geografia del lavoro
http://amzn.to/17TIj62
•
Steiner C. (2012) Automate This: How Algorithms Came to Rule Our World
http://bit.ly/AutomateThis