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F-Prime Capital Partners | CONFIDENTIAL
The State of FinTech and the Time-Honored Rivalry Between
Incumbents and Startups
David Jegen, Hannah Arnold and Doug Nelson
F-Prime Capital
January 2018
FIN TEC H PORTFOL IO
Capital Markets
Wealth Management
Lending
Insurance
Payments
EN TER PR ISE PO RTFO L IO
DevOps SaaS/ Enterprise
Data analytics
Security
H EALTH C AR E PO RTFO L IO
Healthcare IT Medical devices/tools Therapeutics
Note: Not exhaustive
The financial industry has struggled to regain customer trust
following the financial crisis
53%
22%
27%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Consumer Trust in Financial Services Institutions, 2003 - 2017
(1) Chart shows percent of Americans who respond with moderate to high degrees of confidence in financial institutions from annual Gallup poll
Source: Gallup, F-Prime Analysis
4
Regulations and deleveraging have forced incumbent banks to adjust to
a “new normal” of profitability
Bank Equity Multiplier Ratios, OECD
0x
5x
10x
15x
20x
25x
201620142012201020082006 2015201320112005 2007 2009
(1) Equity Multiplier = Total Assets to Equity
Source: McKinsey, Federal Financial Analytics, OECD, BMO Capital Markets, Gartner, F-Prime Analysis
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
2016201420122010200820062005 20132007 2009 2011 2015
Global Banking RoE
5
Deleveraging of balance sheets “New normal” return on equity
“New-Normal”: 8-9% RoE
The mobile + cloud architectural shift created new ways to build and deploy
financial services
“Mobile-first” design
Network
Source: Statista, GigaOm Research, Company websites, Broker Research Reports, Statista, Oliver Wyman, F-Prime Analysis, KPCB
Mobile + Cloud Computing Era
6
0
5,000
10,000
$15,000M
0
1,000
2,000
3,000M
AWS Revenue
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Users
1st
iPhone
Netflix moves to
cloud with AWS
1st Android
phone
Facebook
mobile
launch
AWS
launched
AWS revenue
Active smartphones
FB Mobile monthly
active users
Lower technology costs
Storage
$15/GB
$0.03
Compute
$1.00/
MHz
$0.01
Network
$400/
Mbps
$3
2001
2016
~$10 - $20 CAC
Allowing startups to scale faster than ever
Key Acquisition Drivers
Mission-based,
“Anti-Bank”
Brands
Digital and Viral
Acquisition
Low / No Cost
Offerings
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
1,500
1,000
2,000
500
0
3,500
2,500
3,000
Users (K)
User Growth
Source: Company Reports / Websites; F-Prime Analysis7
Months after launch
~$500 - $1,000 CAC
Venture capital took note and fueled an explosion of funding
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
$12.5B
0
200
400
600
Global Fintech VC investment, US ($B)
2002
0.6
2003
0.5
2004
0.6
2005
1.0
2006
0.7
2007
1.7
2008
1.4
2009
1.1
2010
1.5
2011
1.9
2012
2.6
2013
3.6
2014
7.8
2015
10.8
2016
8.6
2017
10.6
Number deals
ROW
United
States
Number
deals (US)
Note: FinTech investment includes all VC stage financings, Industry: Financial Services, Verticals: Fintech
Source: Pitchbook; Team analysis
Investment outside of the
US growing 67% annually
over last five years
Estimate based on
historical patterns
(last 5 years)
8
Lending, insurance, and payments have received the most venture
investment
0
20
40
60
80
100%
Total FinTech VC investment, 2015-2017
(US only)
Payments
Enterprise
Payments
Consumer
Payments
Healthcare
payments
$2.5B
Lending
Consumer Lending
Commercial Lending
Specialized Finance
Real Estate
$6.9B
Insurance
Insurance
$2.6B
Wealth
Mgmt.
Wealth
Mgmt.
PFM
$1.7B
Other
Enterprise Financial
Software
Cryptocurrency
Capital Markets
/Institutions
Data / Analytics
Other
$3.0B
Note: FinTech investment includes all VC stage financings, Industry: Financial Services, Verticals: Fintech
Source: Pitchbook; F-Prime analysis
9
Some private valuations reflect high expectations relative to fundamentals
0
200
400
$600
Revenue/acct
R
obinhood
9
E*TR
AD
E
461
0
1,000
2,000
$3,000
Value/acct
R
obinhood
650
E*TR
AD
E
2,576
51x 4x
Discount brokers Investment managers Lenders
0
100
200
300
400
$500
Revenue/acct
Betterm
ent
85
Financial
Engines
458
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
$4,000
Value/acct
Betterm
ent
3,200
Financial
Engines
2,017
5x
0.6x
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
$0.20
Revenue/originations
SoFi
0.07
O
neM
ain
0.19
0.0
0.2
0.4
$0.6
Value/originations
SoFi
0.55
O
neM
ain
0.443x
0.8x
Note: Public company valuation represents Enterprise Value
Source: Public company data; Capital IQ; Lit search
10
Eventually public markets apply public market valuation metrics
Some private valuations quickly corrected as public
markets re-valued as FSIs, not tech companies
Others proved a genuine market disruption, and
grew into their private market valuations
0
2
4
6
8
$10B
0
20
40
60
80
100x
LendingClub valuation
Series
A
0.0
Series
B
0.0
Series
C
0.1
Series
D
0.3
Series
E
0.5
Series
F
3.7
IPO
5.4
1Q
7.6
2Q
6.5
3Q
5.4
4Q
5.6
5Q
3.5
6Q
1.5
Revenue multiple
0.0
0.5
1.0
$1.5B
0
5
10
15x
On Deck Capital valuation
Series
A
0.0
Series
B
0.0
Series
C
0.1
Series
C
1
0.1
Series
D
0.3
Series
E
1.0
IPO
1.3
1Q
1.2
2Q
1.1
3Q
0.6
4Q
0.8
5Q
0.5
6Q
0.4
Price/Book value
0
2
4
6
$8B
Square valuation
Series
A0.0
Series
B
0.2
Series
C
1.6
Series
D
3.3
Series
E
6.0
IPO
3.0
1Q
3.8
2Q
3.4
3Q
3.9
4Q
4.1
5Q
6.6
6Q
7.4
LendingClub
OnDeck Capital
Square
Post-IPO
Post-IPO
-0.5x
+2.5x
Pre-IPO Post-IPO
11 Source: Public company data; Capital IQ; Lit search
Aug 2014
Dec 2014
Nov 2015
We do not foresee a complete and radical re-configuration of the FSI
value chain like we saw in IT and Telecom, and will see in Auto
12
= startups capture most valueINGREDIENTS OF
WHOLESALE DISRUPTION
CHANGE IN
CORE PROTOCOL
CHANGE IN
CUSTOMER BASE
Deconstruction
and rebirth
IT
New: MS-DOS
Old: Unix
New: Consumer
Old: Business
Everything but
the plumbing
Telecom
New: TCP/IP
Old: ATM/FR
New: Consumer
Old: Business
Deconstruction
and rebirth
Auto
New: Electric motor
Old: Combustion engine
New: Ride sharing
Old: Consumer
Partly cloudy
with a chance
of blockchain
FSIs
New: Blockchain?
Old: FIX, Swift, etc.
Manufctrng
Apps
Dist/retail
Chips/equip
OS
Equip
Network
Middleware
Services
Devices
Parts
Systems
Software
Sales/mktg
Mfg.
Market infra
Mid/back office
Data layer
UI /UX
Transactions
Yet a new API-enabled financial services stack is emerging –
cementing startups’ ability to launch quickly
13
Customer
Interface
Data Access
Market
Infrastructure
Transactions
IT Infrastructure
Middle / Back
Office
Banking / Payments Capital Markets
FinancialServicesStack
Apex today, but not long term
And startups are just beginning to touch true market
infrastructure (clearing and settlement)
14
Customer
Interface
Data Access
Market
Infrastructure
Transactions
IT Infrastructure
Middle / Back
Office
Banking / Payments Capital Markets
FinancialServicesStack
Apex today, but not long term
Stellar Ripple 0xEthereum
Incumbents risk ceding enormous value creation to startup
competitors
15
Telecom: Change in Market Value ($B) Retail: Change in Market Value ($B)
Incumbents: Comcast, AT&T, Verizon
Tech entrants: Google, FB, Apple
Incumbents: Walmart, Home Depot, Costco
Tech entrants: Amazon, Alibaba
715
139
216
142
2008 2018
522
32
198
97
2008 2018
Change takes longer in FSI, but we will still see many new
leading companies emerge and capture value
Slow shift underway in payments
Potential upcoming breakout companies
16 Source: Federal Reserve, JP Morgan, Capital IQ; Cerulli Asset Management; Analyst reports
Example: Payments
Lending
Banking
Wealth Mgmt.
Exchanges
Brokerage
Payments
Data
8%
0%
4%
2%
100%
6%
98%
2000
3.9
2010
Credit /
Debit
Cards
1.6
2017E
7.6
Paypal
6%
US Payment Volume ($T)
Potential breakouts
Square
1%
Slow incumbents be warned -- we are already entering the next
shift in technology architecture
Mainframe
Era Web Era
Mobile +
Cloud Era
1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Devlifecycle
Episodic
releases
Major
release
(2-3 years)
Scheduled
release
(annually)
Continuous
delivery
(daily/weekly)
AI-model updates
Application
topology
Standalone
ERP +
integration
Portals and
suites
Mobile apps
API-based
execution
Unitof
compute
Cluster of
servers
Server
Virtual
Machine
Container
Serverless
functions
Infrastructure
Mainframe LAN WAN 5G
Machine-to-
machine
decentralized
networks
Client
Server Era
Machine-to-
Machine Era
17 Note: “Financial” APIs include Financial and Payments APIs.
Source: F-Prime Analysis; Programmable Web; Blockchain.info
Current wave Emerging waveHistorical waves
2005
3 13
2007
24 67
2009
116 200
2011
327
752
2013
1,104
1,402
2015
1,618
2,042
2017
2,375
Cumulative FSI APIs, 2005-2017
792x
New APIs since 2011, by Sector
Financial
2,048
Tools
1,041
Social
880
Ecom
m
erce
755
D
ata
713
M
obile
670
M
essaging
613
M
arketing
563
Search
563
0
5
10
15
20M
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
10/24
Mobile +
Cloud Era
Emerging
Machine-to-
Machine Era
Total blockchain wallets, 2012-present
We believe successful FinTech startups will build around a few key themes
The API Economy1
Value-Added
Payments
3
Unbundling of
Customer Segments5
New Front Door to
Financial Services
2
Data-Centric
Businesses
4
Consumerization of
Healthcare6
18

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The State of FinTech and the Time-Honored Rivalry Between Incumbents and Startups

  • 1. F-Prime Capital Partners | CONFIDENTIAL The State of FinTech and the Time-Honored Rivalry Between Incumbents and Startups David Jegen, Hannah Arnold and Doug Nelson F-Prime Capital January 2018
  • 2.
  • 3. FIN TEC H PORTFOL IO Capital Markets Wealth Management Lending Insurance Payments EN TER PR ISE PO RTFO L IO DevOps SaaS/ Enterprise Data analytics Security H EALTH C AR E PO RTFO L IO Healthcare IT Medical devices/tools Therapeutics Note: Not exhaustive
  • 4. The financial industry has struggled to regain customer trust following the financial crisis 53% 22% 27% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Consumer Trust in Financial Services Institutions, 2003 - 2017 (1) Chart shows percent of Americans who respond with moderate to high degrees of confidence in financial institutions from annual Gallup poll Source: Gallup, F-Prime Analysis 4
  • 5. Regulations and deleveraging have forced incumbent banks to adjust to a “new normal” of profitability Bank Equity Multiplier Ratios, OECD 0x 5x 10x 15x 20x 25x 201620142012201020082006 2015201320112005 2007 2009 (1) Equity Multiplier = Total Assets to Equity Source: McKinsey, Federal Financial Analytics, OECD, BMO Capital Markets, Gartner, F-Prime Analysis 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 2016201420122010200820062005 20132007 2009 2011 2015 Global Banking RoE 5 Deleveraging of balance sheets “New normal” return on equity “New-Normal”: 8-9% RoE
  • 6. The mobile + cloud architectural shift created new ways to build and deploy financial services “Mobile-first” design Network Source: Statista, GigaOm Research, Company websites, Broker Research Reports, Statista, Oliver Wyman, F-Prime Analysis, KPCB Mobile + Cloud Computing Era 6 0 5,000 10,000 $15,000M 0 1,000 2,000 3,000M AWS Revenue 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Users 1st iPhone Netflix moves to cloud with AWS 1st Android phone Facebook mobile launch AWS launched AWS revenue Active smartphones FB Mobile monthly active users Lower technology costs Storage $15/GB $0.03 Compute $1.00/ MHz $0.01 Network $400/ Mbps $3 2001 2016
  • 7. ~$10 - $20 CAC Allowing startups to scale faster than ever Key Acquisition Drivers Mission-based, “Anti-Bank” Brands Digital and Viral Acquisition Low / No Cost Offerings 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1,500 1,000 2,000 500 0 3,500 2,500 3,000 Users (K) User Growth Source: Company Reports / Websites; F-Prime Analysis7 Months after launch ~$500 - $1,000 CAC
  • 8. Venture capital took note and fueled an explosion of funding 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 $12.5B 0 200 400 600 Global Fintech VC investment, US ($B) 2002 0.6 2003 0.5 2004 0.6 2005 1.0 2006 0.7 2007 1.7 2008 1.4 2009 1.1 2010 1.5 2011 1.9 2012 2.6 2013 3.6 2014 7.8 2015 10.8 2016 8.6 2017 10.6 Number deals ROW United States Number deals (US) Note: FinTech investment includes all VC stage financings, Industry: Financial Services, Verticals: Fintech Source: Pitchbook; Team analysis Investment outside of the US growing 67% annually over last five years Estimate based on historical patterns (last 5 years) 8
  • 9. Lending, insurance, and payments have received the most venture investment 0 20 40 60 80 100% Total FinTech VC investment, 2015-2017 (US only) Payments Enterprise Payments Consumer Payments Healthcare payments $2.5B Lending Consumer Lending Commercial Lending Specialized Finance Real Estate $6.9B Insurance Insurance $2.6B Wealth Mgmt. Wealth Mgmt. PFM $1.7B Other Enterprise Financial Software Cryptocurrency Capital Markets /Institutions Data / Analytics Other $3.0B Note: FinTech investment includes all VC stage financings, Industry: Financial Services, Verticals: Fintech Source: Pitchbook; F-Prime analysis 9
  • 10. Some private valuations reflect high expectations relative to fundamentals 0 200 400 $600 Revenue/acct R obinhood 9 E*TR AD E 461 0 1,000 2,000 $3,000 Value/acct R obinhood 650 E*TR AD E 2,576 51x 4x Discount brokers Investment managers Lenders 0 100 200 300 400 $500 Revenue/acct Betterm ent 85 Financial Engines 458 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 $4,000 Value/acct Betterm ent 3,200 Financial Engines 2,017 5x 0.6x 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 $0.20 Revenue/originations SoFi 0.07 O neM ain 0.19 0.0 0.2 0.4 $0.6 Value/originations SoFi 0.55 O neM ain 0.443x 0.8x Note: Public company valuation represents Enterprise Value Source: Public company data; Capital IQ; Lit search 10
  • 11. Eventually public markets apply public market valuation metrics Some private valuations quickly corrected as public markets re-valued as FSIs, not tech companies Others proved a genuine market disruption, and grew into their private market valuations 0 2 4 6 8 $10B 0 20 40 60 80 100x LendingClub valuation Series A 0.0 Series B 0.0 Series C 0.1 Series D 0.3 Series E 0.5 Series F 3.7 IPO 5.4 1Q 7.6 2Q 6.5 3Q 5.4 4Q 5.6 5Q 3.5 6Q 1.5 Revenue multiple 0.0 0.5 1.0 $1.5B 0 5 10 15x On Deck Capital valuation Series A 0.0 Series B 0.0 Series C 0.1 Series C 1 0.1 Series D 0.3 Series E 1.0 IPO 1.3 1Q 1.2 2Q 1.1 3Q 0.6 4Q 0.8 5Q 0.5 6Q 0.4 Price/Book value 0 2 4 6 $8B Square valuation Series A0.0 Series B 0.2 Series C 1.6 Series D 3.3 Series E 6.0 IPO 3.0 1Q 3.8 2Q 3.4 3Q 3.9 4Q 4.1 5Q 6.6 6Q 7.4 LendingClub OnDeck Capital Square Post-IPO Post-IPO -0.5x +2.5x Pre-IPO Post-IPO 11 Source: Public company data; Capital IQ; Lit search Aug 2014 Dec 2014 Nov 2015
  • 12. We do not foresee a complete and radical re-configuration of the FSI value chain like we saw in IT and Telecom, and will see in Auto 12 = startups capture most valueINGREDIENTS OF WHOLESALE DISRUPTION CHANGE IN CORE PROTOCOL CHANGE IN CUSTOMER BASE Deconstruction and rebirth IT New: MS-DOS Old: Unix New: Consumer Old: Business Everything but the plumbing Telecom New: TCP/IP Old: ATM/FR New: Consumer Old: Business Deconstruction and rebirth Auto New: Electric motor Old: Combustion engine New: Ride sharing Old: Consumer Partly cloudy with a chance of blockchain FSIs New: Blockchain? Old: FIX, Swift, etc. Manufctrng Apps Dist/retail Chips/equip OS Equip Network Middleware Services Devices Parts Systems Software Sales/mktg Mfg. Market infra Mid/back office Data layer UI /UX Transactions
  • 13. Yet a new API-enabled financial services stack is emerging – cementing startups’ ability to launch quickly 13 Customer Interface Data Access Market Infrastructure Transactions IT Infrastructure Middle / Back Office Banking / Payments Capital Markets FinancialServicesStack Apex today, but not long term
  • 14. And startups are just beginning to touch true market infrastructure (clearing and settlement) 14 Customer Interface Data Access Market Infrastructure Transactions IT Infrastructure Middle / Back Office Banking / Payments Capital Markets FinancialServicesStack Apex today, but not long term Stellar Ripple 0xEthereum
  • 15. Incumbents risk ceding enormous value creation to startup competitors 15 Telecom: Change in Market Value ($B) Retail: Change in Market Value ($B) Incumbents: Comcast, AT&T, Verizon Tech entrants: Google, FB, Apple Incumbents: Walmart, Home Depot, Costco Tech entrants: Amazon, Alibaba 715 139 216 142 2008 2018 522 32 198 97 2008 2018
  • 16. Change takes longer in FSI, but we will still see many new leading companies emerge and capture value Slow shift underway in payments Potential upcoming breakout companies 16 Source: Federal Reserve, JP Morgan, Capital IQ; Cerulli Asset Management; Analyst reports Example: Payments Lending Banking Wealth Mgmt. Exchanges Brokerage Payments Data 8% 0% 4% 2% 100% 6% 98% 2000 3.9 2010 Credit / Debit Cards 1.6 2017E 7.6 Paypal 6% US Payment Volume ($T) Potential breakouts Square 1%
  • 17. Slow incumbents be warned -- we are already entering the next shift in technology architecture Mainframe Era Web Era Mobile + Cloud Era 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 Devlifecycle Episodic releases Major release (2-3 years) Scheduled release (annually) Continuous delivery (daily/weekly) AI-model updates Application topology Standalone ERP + integration Portals and suites Mobile apps API-based execution Unitof compute Cluster of servers Server Virtual Machine Container Serverless functions Infrastructure Mainframe LAN WAN 5G Machine-to- machine decentralized networks Client Server Era Machine-to- Machine Era 17 Note: “Financial” APIs include Financial and Payments APIs. Source: F-Prime Analysis; Programmable Web; Blockchain.info Current wave Emerging waveHistorical waves 2005 3 13 2007 24 67 2009 116 200 2011 327 752 2013 1,104 1,402 2015 1,618 2,042 2017 2,375 Cumulative FSI APIs, 2005-2017 792x New APIs since 2011, by Sector Financial 2,048 Tools 1,041 Social 880 Ecom m erce 755 D ata 713 M obile 670 M essaging 613 M arketing 563 Search 563 0 5 10 15 20M 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 10/24 Mobile + Cloud Era Emerging Machine-to- Machine Era Total blockchain wallets, 2012-present
  • 18. We believe successful FinTech startups will build around a few key themes The API Economy1 Value-Added Payments 3 Unbundling of Customer Segments5 New Front Door to Financial Services 2 Data-Centric Businesses 4 Consumerization of Healthcare6 18