Over the last few months, we have shared our perspective on the FinTech landscape with management teams at several large financial institutions and have summarized those views in this presentation. We look at how we arrived at this exciting period of FinTech disruption and what the next few years will look like -- how threatened are incumbents? which startups are likely to breakout? what does the emerging FinTech architectural stack look like?
It has some good data points and analysis, and we welcome comments and further discussion.
Introduction to Health Economics Dr. R. Kurinji Malar.pptx
The State of FinTech and the Time-Honored Rivalry Between Incumbents and Startups
1. F-Prime Capital Partners | CONFIDENTIAL
The State of FinTech and the Time-Honored Rivalry Between
Incumbents and Startups
David Jegen, Hannah Arnold and Doug Nelson
F-Prime Capital
January 2018
2.
3. FIN TEC H PORTFOL IO
Capital Markets
Wealth Management
Lending
Insurance
Payments
EN TER PR ISE PO RTFO L IO
DevOps SaaS/ Enterprise
Data analytics
Security
H EALTH C AR E PO RTFO L IO
Healthcare IT Medical devices/tools Therapeutics
Note: Not exhaustive
4. The financial industry has struggled to regain customer trust
following the financial crisis
53%
22%
27%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Consumer Trust in Financial Services Institutions, 2003 - 2017
(1) Chart shows percent of Americans who respond with moderate to high degrees of confidence in financial institutions from annual Gallup poll
Source: Gallup, F-Prime Analysis
4
5. Regulations and deleveraging have forced incumbent banks to adjust to
a “new normal” of profitability
Bank Equity Multiplier Ratios, OECD
0x
5x
10x
15x
20x
25x
201620142012201020082006 2015201320112005 2007 2009
(1) Equity Multiplier = Total Assets to Equity
Source: McKinsey, Federal Financial Analytics, OECD, BMO Capital Markets, Gartner, F-Prime Analysis
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
2016201420122010200820062005 20132007 2009 2011 2015
Global Banking RoE
5
Deleveraging of balance sheets “New normal” return on equity
“New-Normal”: 8-9% RoE
6. The mobile + cloud architectural shift created new ways to build and deploy
financial services
“Mobile-first” design
Network
Source: Statista, GigaOm Research, Company websites, Broker Research Reports, Statista, Oliver Wyman, F-Prime Analysis, KPCB
Mobile + Cloud Computing Era
6
0
5,000
10,000
$15,000M
0
1,000
2,000
3,000M
AWS Revenue
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Users
1st
iPhone
Netflix moves to
cloud with AWS
1st Android
phone
Facebook
mobile
launch
AWS
launched
AWS revenue
Active smartphones
FB Mobile monthly
active users
Lower technology costs
Storage
$15/GB
$0.03
Compute
$1.00/
MHz
$0.01
Network
$400/
Mbps
$3
2001
2016
7. ~$10 - $20 CAC
Allowing startups to scale faster than ever
Key Acquisition Drivers
Mission-based,
“Anti-Bank”
Brands
Digital and Viral
Acquisition
Low / No Cost
Offerings
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
1,500
1,000
2,000
500
0
3,500
2,500
3,000
Users (K)
User Growth
Source: Company Reports / Websites; F-Prime Analysis7
Months after launch
~$500 - $1,000 CAC
8. Venture capital took note and fueled an explosion of funding
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
$12.5B
0
200
400
600
Global Fintech VC investment, US ($B)
2002
0.6
2003
0.5
2004
0.6
2005
1.0
2006
0.7
2007
1.7
2008
1.4
2009
1.1
2010
1.5
2011
1.9
2012
2.6
2013
3.6
2014
7.8
2015
10.8
2016
8.6
2017
10.6
Number deals
ROW
United
States
Number
deals (US)
Note: FinTech investment includes all VC stage financings, Industry: Financial Services, Verticals: Fintech
Source: Pitchbook; Team analysis
Investment outside of the
US growing 67% annually
over last five years
Estimate based on
historical patterns
(last 5 years)
8
9. Lending, insurance, and payments have received the most venture
investment
0
20
40
60
80
100%
Total FinTech VC investment, 2015-2017
(US only)
Payments
Enterprise
Payments
Consumer
Payments
Healthcare
payments
$2.5B
Lending
Consumer Lending
Commercial Lending
Specialized Finance
Real Estate
$6.9B
Insurance
Insurance
$2.6B
Wealth
Mgmt.
Wealth
Mgmt.
PFM
$1.7B
Other
Enterprise Financial
Software
Cryptocurrency
Capital Markets
/Institutions
Data / Analytics
Other
$3.0B
Note: FinTech investment includes all VC stage financings, Industry: Financial Services, Verticals: Fintech
Source: Pitchbook; F-Prime analysis
9
10. Some private valuations reflect high expectations relative to fundamentals
0
200
400
$600
Revenue/acct
R
obinhood
9
E*TR
AD
E
461
0
1,000
2,000
$3,000
Value/acct
R
obinhood
650
E*TR
AD
E
2,576
51x 4x
Discount brokers Investment managers Lenders
0
100
200
300
400
$500
Revenue/acct
Betterm
ent
85
Financial
Engines
458
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
$4,000
Value/acct
Betterm
ent
3,200
Financial
Engines
2,017
5x
0.6x
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
$0.20
Revenue/originations
SoFi
0.07
O
neM
ain
0.19
0.0
0.2
0.4
$0.6
Value/originations
SoFi
0.55
O
neM
ain
0.443x
0.8x
Note: Public company valuation represents Enterprise Value
Source: Public company data; Capital IQ; Lit search
10
11. Eventually public markets apply public market valuation metrics
Some private valuations quickly corrected as public
markets re-valued as FSIs, not tech companies
Others proved a genuine market disruption, and
grew into their private market valuations
0
2
4
6
8
$10B
0
20
40
60
80
100x
LendingClub valuation
Series
A
0.0
Series
B
0.0
Series
C
0.1
Series
D
0.3
Series
E
0.5
Series
F
3.7
IPO
5.4
1Q
7.6
2Q
6.5
3Q
5.4
4Q
5.6
5Q
3.5
6Q
1.5
Revenue multiple
0.0
0.5
1.0
$1.5B
0
5
10
15x
On Deck Capital valuation
Series
A
0.0
Series
B
0.0
Series
C
0.1
Series
C
1
0.1
Series
D
0.3
Series
E
1.0
IPO
1.3
1Q
1.2
2Q
1.1
3Q
0.6
4Q
0.8
5Q
0.5
6Q
0.4
Price/Book value
0
2
4
6
$8B
Square valuation
Series
A0.0
Series
B
0.2
Series
C
1.6
Series
D
3.3
Series
E
6.0
IPO
3.0
1Q
3.8
2Q
3.4
3Q
3.9
4Q
4.1
5Q
6.6
6Q
7.4
LendingClub
OnDeck Capital
Square
Post-IPO
Post-IPO
-0.5x
+2.5x
Pre-IPO Post-IPO
11 Source: Public company data; Capital IQ; Lit search
Aug 2014
Dec 2014
Nov 2015
12. We do not foresee a complete and radical re-configuration of the FSI
value chain like we saw in IT and Telecom, and will see in Auto
12
= startups capture most valueINGREDIENTS OF
WHOLESALE DISRUPTION
CHANGE IN
CORE PROTOCOL
CHANGE IN
CUSTOMER BASE
Deconstruction
and rebirth
IT
New: MS-DOS
Old: Unix
New: Consumer
Old: Business
Everything but
the plumbing
Telecom
New: TCP/IP
Old: ATM/FR
New: Consumer
Old: Business
Deconstruction
and rebirth
Auto
New: Electric motor
Old: Combustion engine
New: Ride sharing
Old: Consumer
Partly cloudy
with a chance
of blockchain
FSIs
New: Blockchain?
Old: FIX, Swift, etc.
Manufctrng
Apps
Dist/retail
Chips/equip
OS
Equip
Network
Middleware
Services
Devices
Parts
Systems
Software
Sales/mktg
Mfg.
Market infra
Mid/back office
Data layer
UI /UX
Transactions
13. Yet a new API-enabled financial services stack is emerging –
cementing startups’ ability to launch quickly
13
Customer
Interface
Data Access
Market
Infrastructure
Transactions
IT Infrastructure
Middle / Back
Office
Banking / Payments Capital Markets
FinancialServicesStack
Apex today, but not long term
14. And startups are just beginning to touch true market
infrastructure (clearing and settlement)
14
Customer
Interface
Data Access
Market
Infrastructure
Transactions
IT Infrastructure
Middle / Back
Office
Banking / Payments Capital Markets
FinancialServicesStack
Apex today, but not long term
Stellar Ripple 0xEthereum
15. Incumbents risk ceding enormous value creation to startup
competitors
15
Telecom: Change in Market Value ($B) Retail: Change in Market Value ($B)
Incumbents: Comcast, AT&T, Verizon
Tech entrants: Google, FB, Apple
Incumbents: Walmart, Home Depot, Costco
Tech entrants: Amazon, Alibaba
715
139
216
142
2008 2018
522
32
198
97
2008 2018
16. Change takes longer in FSI, but we will still see many new
leading companies emerge and capture value
Slow shift underway in payments
Potential upcoming breakout companies
16 Source: Federal Reserve, JP Morgan, Capital IQ; Cerulli Asset Management; Analyst reports
Example: Payments
Lending
Banking
Wealth Mgmt.
Exchanges
Brokerage
Payments
Data
8%
0%
4%
2%
100%
6%
98%
2000
3.9
2010
Credit /
Debit
Cards
1.6
2017E
7.6
Paypal
6%
US Payment Volume ($T)
Potential breakouts
Square
1%
17. Slow incumbents be warned -- we are already entering the next
shift in technology architecture
Mainframe
Era Web Era
Mobile +
Cloud Era
1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Devlifecycle
Episodic
releases
Major
release
(2-3 years)
Scheduled
release
(annually)
Continuous
delivery
(daily/weekly)
AI-model updates
Application
topology
Standalone
ERP +
integration
Portals and
suites
Mobile apps
API-based
execution
Unitof
compute
Cluster of
servers
Server
Virtual
Machine
Container
Serverless
functions
Infrastructure
Mainframe LAN WAN 5G
Machine-to-
machine
decentralized
networks
Client
Server Era
Machine-to-
Machine Era
17 Note: “Financial” APIs include Financial and Payments APIs.
Source: F-Prime Analysis; Programmable Web; Blockchain.info
Current wave Emerging waveHistorical waves
2005
3 13
2007
24 67
2009
116 200
2011
327
752
2013
1,104
1,402
2015
1,618
2,042
2017
2,375
Cumulative FSI APIs, 2005-2017
792x
New APIs since 2011, by Sector
Financial
2,048
Tools
1,041
Social
880
Ecom
m
erce
755
D
ata
713
M
obile
670
M
essaging
613
M
arketing
563
Search
563
0
5
10
15
20M
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
10/24
Mobile +
Cloud Era
Emerging
Machine-to-
Machine Era
Total blockchain wallets, 2012-present
18. We believe successful FinTech startups will build around a few key themes
The API Economy1
Value-Added
Payments
3
Unbundling of
Customer Segments5
New Front Door to
Financial Services
2
Data-Centric
Businesses
4
Consumerization of
Healthcare6
18