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bKash equity valuation 2018

  1. TheCase
  2. The Mastermind
  3. The Demand
  4. The Timeline
  5. Financial
  6. BD - Macro 0.0 10.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 GDP Growth Bangladesh (%) 6.05 6.13 6.36 3.633.01 5.31 10.30 2.38 5.31 8.40 6.11 2.21 2.01 3.33 5.67 7.59 7.056.77 9.11 8.90 5.42 8.13 11.33 6.22 7.53 6.99 6.19 5.43 5.78 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 INFLATION
  7. Banking
  8. Mobile Money
  9. 506,032 4,327,308 83,358 178,322 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 5,000,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Industry Transaction Average Daily Transactions Count Agents
  10. 3868 4061 3963 4777 4% 4% 3% 4% 8% 9% 6% 5% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 April May June July Transaction Amount (BDT in Crore) Growth in No. of Agents Growth in No. of Agent Banking Subscribers
  11. BKASH
  12. Cash in Cash out Send Money Bank Transfer Payment Payment Mobile Recharge Interest on Savings
  13. BusinessProfile
  14. BusinessProfile
  15. Revenue
  16. Economic
  17. 186
  18. Growth drivers
  19. management
  20. Source: Company Financials & Team Estimates 42.4% 25.4% 8.7% 7.5% 16%
  21. Competitor
  22. BDT 2,50,000 BDT 15,000 BDT 18 BDT 18.5 BDT 25,000 BDT 15,000 Maximum Amount Per Transaction Daily Amount of Transaction Cash out charge Per BDT 100
  23. 2,757,340 3,247,362 1,879,500 861,720
  24. FUTURE POTENTIALS Source: Team Analysis Payment SystemSimilar Models
  25. 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% bKash M-Pesa 10% 44% 0.14% 229.63% Transaction Value per GDP Gross Profit Per User
  26. • • •
  27. 1,577,733 8,848,788 1,299,000 6,371,128 82.3% 77.0%
  28. 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Gross Profit Spread
  29. 10,961 23,004 - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
  30. - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
  31. - 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E Revenue Cost of Services Gross Profit/Loss Profit Before Tax Profit After Tax 10 year projections
  32. FCFE 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Net Income 750 1,206 1,462 3,144 4,922 7,132 9,448 13,196 17,934 21,686 +Depreciaiton & amortization 126 168 227 310 206 261 323 409 486 577 Net working capital -364 -206 -276 -323 -370 -429 -496 -571 -667 -783 -Capex -175 -178 -180 -182 -185 -187 -190 -192 -195 -197 FCFE 336 991 1,233 2,948 4,573 6,777 9,085 12,842 17,558 21,282 Terminal value 167,336 DCF 336 853 914 1,884 2,517 3,213 3,710 4,517 5,319 49,215
  33. 3.3% 3.4% 11.6% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Net profit margin 16.7% 20.8% 39.3% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Gross profit margin 7.9% 7.7% 18.8% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 EBITDA margin
  34. 2.0% 1.8% 4.9% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 ROA 9.3% 15.8% 32.9% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 ROE
  35. Risk Factors Technological Market Interest Regulatory Tech companies need to be updated. More competition might fragment the market Floating earnings will be volatile due to this risk Sudden regulatory changes might affect profitability
  36. THANK Y U Question
  37. Transaction Limits Transaction Type Maximum Number of Transactions Amount Per Transaction Maximum Amount Per Day Per Month Minimum (Tk) Maximum (Tk) Per Day (Tk) Per Month (Tk) Cash in from Agent 2 20 50 15,000 15,000 100,000 Deposit from i-banking Send Money 20 70 10 10,000 10,000 25,000 Mobile Recharge 50 1,500 10 1,000* 10,000 100,000 Payment No Limit No Limit 1 No Limit No Limit No Limit Cash Out from Agent 2 10 50 10,000 10,000 50,000 Cash Out from ATM 2,000 International Remittance 5 20 50 25,000 25,000 150,000 Bank Transfer (iBanking) Existing Cash In limits applicable. Cash In limits include any transfer received from iBanking and Cash in from Agent i.e. Cash In from Agent and Receive from iBanking will share the same limit. A bKash Account holder can withdraw a maximum amount of Tk 10,000 per day and Tk 50,000 per month from his/her Account (Agent & ATM combined) A bKash Account holder can keep a maximum amount of Tk 300,000 in his/her bKash Account at any moment A maximum of *Tk. 1,000 airtime balance can be recharged to a prepaid number and a maximum of *Tk. 5,000 to a postpaid number from a bKash account in a single transaction Transaction limits
  38. CoE 16% Rf 9.50% Beta 1.1 Rm 6% COE Calculation
  39. Income Statement Income Statement 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E Volume of Transactions (BDT mn) 860,800 1,299,000 1,805,000 2,175,300 2,863,421 3,775,625 4,942,878 6,371,128 8,211,676 10,335,385 13,007,719 16,370,259 19,777,042 23,891,729 Cash Out Fees 5,373 7,860 11,158 13,082 12,577 16,820 22,743 30,996 41,185 52,194 64,600 81,853 97,185 115,309 p2p fees 270 413 508 636 1,017 1,187 1,374 1,592 - - - - - - Airtime Purchase 75 286 357 432 475 522 564 609 646 684 719 754 785 816 Others 14 27 65 109 2,433 3,223 3,552 4,832 6,529 8,700 11,464 15,081 19,376 24,431 Revenue 5,732 8,587 12,088 14,258 16,501 21,751 28,233 38,028 48,360 61,578 76,783 97,688 117,345 140,556 Revenue as %of transaction 66.6% 66.1% 67.0% 65.5% 57.6% 57.6% 57.1% 59.7% 58.9% 59.6% 59.0% 59.7% 59.3% 58.8% Cost of Services 4,773 7,011 9,766 11,299 11,879 14,817 18,495 23,671 30,247 37,388 45,462 56,554 66,598 79,330 CoS as %of transaction 55.5% 54.0% 54.1% 51.9% 41.5% 39.2% 37.4% 37.2% 36.8% 36.2% 34.9% 34.5% 33.7% 33.2% Gross Profit/Loss 958 1,576 2,322 2,959 4,622 6,934 9,738 14,357 18,112 24,189 31,321 41,134 50,747 61,227 GP as %of transaction 11.1% 12.1% 12.9% 13.6% 16.1% 18.4% 19.7% 22.5% 22.1% 23.4% 24.1% 25.1% 25.7% 25.6% Other Income 663 897 1,124 1,391 1,532 1,550 1,568 1,588 1,610 1,634 1,660 1,688 1,718 1,751 Donor Grants - 119 55 51 Operating & Admin Expenses 783 1,220 1,957 2,462 2,893 3,869 5,458 7,749 9,473 11,483 14,212 17,189 20,409 24,215 Marketing & Promotional Expenses 496 852 876 1,041 2,004 2,643 3,460 3,186 2,464 3,101 3,902 4,911 3,955 4,778 Utilization of grant funds - 119 55 51 48 60 82 116 155 206 269 357 446 555 Profit Before Contributing to WPPF 342 401 612 847 1,210 1,912 2,306 4,895 7,632 11,034 14,598 20,365 27,655 33,429 Contribution to WPPF 16 19 43 56 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 64 65 66 Profit Before Tax 326 382 570 791 1,153 1,856 2,249 4,836 7,572 10,972 14,535 20,301 27,590 33,363 Current Income Tax Expenses 19 43 267 266 404 649 787 1,693 2,650 3,840 5,087 7,106 9,657 11,677 Deferred Income Tax Expenses/(Income) 118 99 (33) 37 Total Tax 137 142 235 303 404 649 787 1,693 2,650 3,840 5,087 7,106 9,657 11,677 Profit After Tax 189 239 335 488 750 1,206 1,462 3,144 4,922 7,132 9,448 13,196 17,934 21,686
  40. Balance SheetBalance Sheet (BDT mn) 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E Net PPE 203 405 708 768 817 827 992 1240 1612 2257 3386 5417 9209 16576 Net Intangible Assets 148 335 269 464 Deferred Tax Assets 40 1 - Non-current Assets 390 740 979 1,231 817 827 992 1,240 1,612 2,257 3,386 5,417 9,209 16,576 Total Receivables 99 158 220 427 410 549 742 1,012 1,344 1,703 2,108 2,671 3,172 3,763 Advances, Deposits & Prepayments 53 206 218 232 236 240 244 248 252 256 260 264 269 273 Advance Income Tax 113 225 367 538 645 774 891 1,024 1,178 1,319 1,478 1,655 1,820 2,002 Airtime Balance 45 156 798 1,163 1,396 1,675 1,926 2,215 2,547 2,929 3,281 3,675 4,116 4,610 Airtime Proceeds & Transit 117 67 Restricted Cash & Equivalents 7,223 11,172 17,507 21,985 28,940 38,159 53,417 73,311 100,238 133,396 176,993 234,206 296,790 375,262 Fixed Deposits 400 1,470 1,620 2,122 2,122 2,440 2,806 3,227 3,711 4,268 4,908 5,644 6,491 7,464 Cash & Equivalents 1,103 306 300 186 Current Assets 9,154 13,760 21,029 26,654 33,750 43,838 60,026 81,037 109,270 143,872 189,028 248,115 312,657 393,375 TOTAL ASSETS 9,544 14,500 22,008 27,885 34,567 44,665 61,018 82,277 110,883 146,129 192,414 253,532 321,865 409,950 Share Capital 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 Convertible preference shares 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Share Premium 1,286 1,286 2,133 2,133 2,133 2,133 2,133 2,133 2,133 2,133 2,133 2,133 2,133 2,133 Share Money Deposit 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Retained Earnings (157) 80 416 903 1,653 2,859 4,321 7,464 12,386 19,518 28,966 42,162 60,095 81,781 TOTAL EQUITY 2,019 2,257 2,591 3,079 3,829 5,035 6,497 9,640 14,562 21,694 31,142 44,338 62,271 83,957 Deferred Tax Liability - 59 - 36 Employee Benefits - - 118 45 Other non-current Liabilities 7 7 7 7 Finance Lease Liabilities - - 19 41 Non-current Liabs 7 66 144 128 257 514 1,027 2,055 4,110 6,164 9,246 10,171 11,188 12,307 Customer Deposits 4,547 7,347 11,488 14,886 19,595 25,837 36,168 49,638 67,870 90,321 119,840 158,578 200,952 254,085 Other Deposits 2,275 3,615 5,801 6,778 8,922 11,764 16,468 22,602 30,903 41,126 54,566 72,205 91,499 115,692 Trade & Other Payables 305 606 673 1,023 990 1235 1541 1973 2521 3116 3788 4713 5550 6611 Current Finance Lease Liabilities - - 6 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 Grant Funds 126 27 49 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 Accrued Expenses 223 498 903 1,312 1,443 1,588 1,699 1,818 1,909 2,004 2,084 2,168 2,233 2,300 Provision for Tax 41 84 352 617 1,111 1,222 1,345 1,439 1,539 1,616 1,697 1,748 1,783 1,819 Total Current Liabs 7,518 12,177 19,272 24,678 32,123 41,708 57,282 77,530 104,803 138,244 182,038 239,473 302,079 380,568 TOTAL LIABILITIESS 7,525 12,243 19,416 24,806 32,380 42,222 58,309 79,585 108,913 144,409 191,284 249,644 313,267 392,875
  41. FCFF FCFE 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Net Income 750 1,206 1,462 3,144 4,922 7,132 9,448 13,196 17,934 21,686 +Depreciaiton & amortization 126 168 227 310 206 261 323 409 486 577 Net working capital -364 -206 -276 -323 -370 -429 -496 -571 -667 -783 -Capex -175 -178 -180 -182 -185 -187 -190 -192 -195 -197 FCFE 336 991 1,233 2,948 4,573 6,777 9,085 12,842 17,558 21,282 Terminal value 167,336 DCF 336 853 914 1,884 2,517 3,213 3,710 4,517 5,319 49,215
  42. CoE 17% Rf 9.50% Beta 1.2 Rm 6% COE Calculation (Bullish Case)
  43. Income Statement (Bullish Case) Income Statement 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E Volume of Transactions (BDT mn) 860,800 1,299,000 1,805,000 2,175,300 2,863,421 3,722,447 4,739,473 6,032,358 7,368,451 8,997,686 10,526,216 12,310,857 14,394,050 16,386,289 Cash Out Fees 5,373 7,860 11,158 13,082 12,577 16,349 21,746 29,592 37,670 46,808 54,410 64,716 75,100 84,780 p2p fees 270 413 508 636 1,004 1,140 1,318 1,523 - - - - - - Airtime Purchase 75 286 357 432 475 522 564 609 646 684 719 754 785 816 Others 14 27 65 109 2,433 3,204 33,653 43,269 53,485 65,988 78,118 92,312 109,042 125,500 Revenue 5,732 8,587 12,088 14,258 16,488 21,215 57,281 74,993 91,800 113,480 133,247 157,783 184,927 211,096 Revenue as %of transaction 66.6% 66.1% 67.0% 65.5% 57.6% 57.0% 120.9% 124.3% 124.6% 126.1% 126.6% 128.2% 128.5% 128.8% Cost of Services 4,773 7,011 9,766 11,299 11,754 14,240 18,021 22,930 28,355 34,488 39,749 46,712 53,813 61,195 CoS as %of transaction 55.5% 54.0% 54.1% 51.9% 41.0% 38.3% 38.0% 38.0% 38.5% 38.3% 37.8% 37.9% 37.4% 37.3% Gross Profit/Loss 958 1,576 2,322 2,959 4,735 6,975 39,261 52,063 63,445 78,992 93,498 111,070 131,114 149,901 GP as %of transaction 11.1% 12.1% 12.9% 13.6% 16.5% 18.7% 82.8% 86.3% 86.1% 87.8% 88.8% 90.2% 91.1% 91.5% Other Income 663 897 1,124 1,391 1,532 1,548 1,566 1,583 1,600 1,619 1,637 1,657 1,677 1,698 Other Income as %of transaction 6.9% 6.2% 6.4% 5.4% 4.2% 3.3% 2.6% 2.2% 1.8% 1.6% 1.3% 1.2% 1.0% Donor Grants - 119 55 51 Operating & Admin Expenses 783 1,220 1,957 2,462 3,773 5,232 6,959 9,765 12,431 14,978 17,411 20,062 23,281 26,282 Marketing & Promotional Expenses 496 852 876 1,041 2,004 2,978 4,266 4,826 4,421 4,499 5,263 4,924 5,758 4,916 Utilization of grant funds - 119 55 51 51 62 176 241 309 399 489 602 733 869 Profit Before Contributing to WPPF 342 401 612 847 439 252 29,426 38,813 47,885 60,734 71,972 87,138 103,018 119,533 Contribution to WPPF 16 19 43 56 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 64 65 66 Profit Before Tax 326 382 570 791 383 195 29,368 38,754 47,825 60,673 71,910 87,075 102,953 119,466 Current Income Tax Expenses 19 43 267 266 134 68 10,279 13,564 16,739 21,236 25,168 30,476 36,034 41,813 Deferred Income Tax Expenses/(Income) 118 99 (33) 37 Total Tax 137 142 235 303 134 68 10,279 13,564 16,739 21,236 25,168 30,476 36,034 41,813 Profit After Tax 189 239 335 488 249 127 19,089 25,190 31,086 39,437 46,741 56,598 66,920 77,653
  44. Balance Sheet (Bullish Case) Balance Sheet (BDT mn) 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E Net PPE 203 405 708 768 817 831 998 1247 1621 2270 3405 5448 9261 16670 Net Intangible Assets 148 335 269 464 Deferred Tax Assets 40 1 - Non-current Assets 390 740 979 1,231 817 831 998 1,247 1,621 2,270 3,405 5,448 9,261 16,670 Total Receivables 99 158 220 427 410 534 710 966 1229 1528 1776 2112 2451 2767 Advances, Deposits & Prepayments 53 206 218 232 236 240 244 248 252 256 260 264 269 273 Advance Income Tax 113 225 367 538 645 774 891 1024 1178 1319 1478 1655 1820 2002 Airtime Balance 45 156 798 1,163 1338 1538 1769 2123 2547 3057 3821 4776 6209 7016 Airtime Proceeds & Transit 117 67 Restricted Cash & Equivalents 7,223 11,172 17,507 21,985 28,940 37,622 45,057 53,729 61,208 69,343 74,807 80,104 85,022 86,958 Fixed Deposits 400 1,470 1,620 2,122 2122 2440 2806 3227 3711 4268 4908 5644 6491 7464 Cash & Equivalents 1,103 306 300 186 Current Assets 9,154 13,760 21,029 26,654 33,691 43,148 51,476 61,317 70,126 79,771 87,050 94,556 102,262 106,481 TOTAL ASSETS 9,544 14,500 22,008 27,885 34,509 43,980 52,474 62,564 71,747 82,040 90,455 100,003 111,523 123,151 Share Capital 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 Convertible preference shares 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Share Premium 1,286 1,286 2,133 2,133 2,133 2,133 2,133 2,133 2,133 2,133 2,133 2,133 2,133 2,133 Share Money Deposit 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Retained Earnings (157) 80 416 903 1,152 1,279 20,368 45,558 76,644 116,082 162,823 219,422 286,341 363,995 TOTAL EQUITY 2,019 2,257 2,591 3,079 3,328 3,455 22,544 47,734 78,820 118,258 164,999 221,597 288,517 366,170 Deferred Tax Liability - 59 - 36 Employee Benefits - - 118 45 Other non-current Liabilities 7 7 7 7 Finance Lease Liabilities - - 19 41 Non-current Liabs 7 66 144 128 257 514 1,027 2,055 4,110 6,164 9,246 10,171 11,188 12,307 Customer Deposits 4,547 7,347 11,488 14,886 19,595 25,473 30,508 36,379 41,443 46,951 50,651 54,237 57,568 58,878 Other Deposits 2,275 3,615 5,801 6,778 8,922 11,599 13,891 16,564 18,870 21,378 23,063 24,696 26,212 26,809 Trade & Other Payables 305 606 673 1,023 979 1187 1502 1911 2363 2874 3312 3893 4484 5100 Current Finance Lease Liabilities - - 6 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 Grant Funds 126 27 49 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 Accrued Expenses 223 498 903 1,312 1443 1588 1699 1818 1909 2004 2084 2168 2233 2300 Provision for Tax 41 84 352 617 1111 1222 1345 1439 1539 1616 1697 1748 1783 1819 Total Current Liabs 7,518 12,177 19,272 24,678 32,112 41,130 49,005 58,172 66,186 74,886 80,869 86,803 92,341 94,967 TOTAL LIABILITIESS 7,525 12,243 19,416 24,806 32,369 41,644 50,033 60,227 70,295 81,050 90,116 96,974 103,529 107,274
  45. FCFF(Bullish Case) FCFE 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Net Income 249 127 19,089 25,190 31,086 39,437 46,741 56,598 66,920 77,653 +Depreciaiton & amortization 126 163 217 296 188 234 272 324 376 424 Net working capital -364 -206 -276 -323 -370 -429 -496 -571 -667 -783 -Capex -175 -178 -180 -182 -185 -187 -190 -192 -195 -197 FCFE (165) (94) 18,851 24,980 30,719 39,055 46,328 56,159 66,434 77,097 Terminal value 579,634 DCF (165) (80) 13,842 15,718 16,563 18,044 18,341 19,051 19,312 163,587 Enterprise value 284,211 + Cash & equivalent balance 31,062 -Interest bearing debt (28,517) Equity Value (BDT mn) 286,756 Equity Value (USD mn) 3,455
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