Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau 01 June 2009

Surviving the Downturn and
Securing the Future
Slovenian Convention
Bureau
June 1st 2009

Rohit Talwar
CEO
Fast Future
rohit@fastfuture.com
Tel +44 (0)20 8830 0766
http://www.sycp.si

• If you have any feedback or questions about the material
presented here or the background research, or would
like to discuss a potential research project, consultancy
assignment or speaking engagement for your
organization please contact rohit@fastfuture.com

• If you would like to take part in our survey on the future
of travel and meetings, please go to
http://tinyurl.com/future-travel-and-events
• We will donate $1 to children’s charities for each
respondent – the survey closing date is June 30th 2009

• If you would like details on our forthcoming seminar on
Winning in a Downturn in London on June 22nd , 6pm –
please email events@fastfuture.com

Lead or Follow?
• Permission to
Believe

• Opportunity

• Passion

• Magnetic
http://www.designedlearning.com/images/AsGoesTheFollower.JPG

• Relationships

Economic Outlook
Key indicators 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Real GDP 3.5 -4.0 0.5 3.3 3.9 4.3
growth (%)

Consumer price 5.7 1.2 1.8 2.6 2.2 2.5
inflation (av; %)

Budget Balance -0.3 -4.6 -2.9 -2.8 -1.6 -1.1
(% of GDP)

Current-account -6.4 -2.8 -3.3 -2.2 -2.3 -1.3
balance (% of
GDP)

http://www.economist.com/countries/Slovenia/profile.cfm?folder=Profile-Economic%20Data

WEF Competitiveness Rankings

Country Global Competitiveness GCI 2008-2009 score
Index Ranking 2008-09

United States 1 5.74
Switzerland 2 5.61
Denmark 3 5.58
Sweden 4 5.53
Singapore 5 5.53
Slovenia 45 4.50

http://www.weforum.org/en/initiatives/gcp/Global%20Competitiveness%20Report/index.htm

Doing Business – Europe’s Top 10
Country Ranking on the Starting a Protecting Enforcing
ease of doing business investors contracts
business (rank) (rank) (rank)

Denmark 5 16 24 29
U.K 6 8 9 24
Ireland 7 5 5 39
Norway 10 33 18 7
Finland 14 18 53 5
Sweden 17 30 53 55
Belgium 19 20 15 22
Switzerland 21 52 164 32
Estonia 22 23 53 30
Germany 25 102 88 9
Slovenia 54 41 18 79
Greece* 96 133 150 85

* Worst in E.U Selected Indicators only. For a full list visit http://www.doingbusiness.org/Documents/FullReport/2009/DB_2009_English.pdf

Innovation in the Sector
Terme Snovik

Grand Hotel Primus Maya Adrenaline Park

How big is the Crisis?

http://nychousingbubble.blogspot.com/2007/10/overstocked-and-overpriced-charge-it.html

Prepare for Alternative Scenarios

8-10% Suspicious Love is in
Minds the Air
GDP
Growth
Dancing in
India 6-7%
the Dark
and
China

Road to
3-4% Nowhere

Recession 0% 1-2% 2-3%
GDP Growth Europe, the USA and Japan

Fast Future Study on the Future
of Travel, Meetings and Events
• Electronic survey – running until June 30th 2009
• Interim results presented here
• 614 responses to date
• Questions on how the industry is responding to the downturn
and on scenarios for the industry in 2015
• Targeted both the industry and their customers
• $1 donate to Children’s charities for each person who responds
• To complete the survey please visit
http://tinyurl.com/future-travel-and-events
• For further details contact rohit@fastfuture.com

Revenue Impact Against 2008
16% Growth

28% Flat
2009
Decline
19%
43%
56%
2010

12%
38%
9%
2015
79%
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events

Profit Impact Against 2008
20% 25% Growth

Flat
2009
Decline

25%
38%
55%
2010

18%
37%
9%
2015
73%

Cost Cutting -
Emphasis on Innovation -

Increasing Use of Partnerships -
Changing Organisational Structure -
Renegotiating Contracts with Suppliers -
Headcount Reduction -

Changing Business Model -
Changing our Basic Strategy -
Increased Marketing -
More New Product Development -

Focus on Premium Products -
Staff Motivation Activities -
Looking for Acquisitions -
Reduction of Product Range -

Price Increases -
Selling Parts of the Business -
No Change -
Other -


Customer Relationships -

Cost Control -

Innovation -

Marketing and Brand Promotion -

Clear Internal Communications -

Supplier Relationships -

Other -


Please describe the strategies and tactics your are
adopting to survive and thrive in the downturn?
Meetings Industry


What Future are we Creating?

• Key Clients

• Conversations
that Energise

• Key Choices

http://images.forbes.com/media/2008/02/22/downturn.jpg

Refilling the Tank

http://www.insidesocal.com/tomhoffarth/exhausted.jpg

Free Marketing -
Leveraging the Networks

Natural Resource Challenges

“Companies that are not adequately managing the
consequences of climate change on their business will
not be welcomed as our customers in the future”
Rick Murray
Images
http://www.masdarctf.com/images/aboutus_image.jpg
Chief Claims Strategist
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7180396.stm
http://www.operationnoah.org/images/uploads/Burning_planet_411x220.jpg
http://www.ci.tarpon-springs.fl.us/water%201.jpg Swiss Re
Image sources www.mondolithic.com, www.metoffice.com

Regional Marketing

http://images.autoline.info/maps/en/europe.gif

Rethinking Exhibitions,
Conventions and Training

http://z.about.com/d/eventplanning/1/0/P/2/-/-/exhibition.jpg

Mobilising the Audience
Finding the Tipping Point

http://bloginitiative.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/crowd.jpg

Innovating the
Experience

http://z.about.com/d/gocalifornia/1/0/T/l/KA_SlaveCage.jpg
http://floatingterritories.org/ef10st/img/openspace.jpg

Creating Evangelists –
Are you Magnetic?

http://www.ripleys.com/assets/img/upload/bions/magnet_man.jpg

Working the Professionals
Turning Speakers into your ‘Brand Ambassadors’

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3507/3236880311_c9bdb41a01.jpg

Food for Thought

http://www.lyonresto.com/photo_restaurant/0_photo_automatique/L_atelier_des_Chefs/1_l_atelier_des_chefs.jpg
http://www.matteothun.com/.data/objects/198/img/VAP_01_2.jpg

The Innovation Edge

www.redbaron.com/museum/images/gallery/02.jpg
Immersadome – VirTra Systems

Airlines in Crisis

Sources: www.maxjet.com /http://www.classicdriver.com/upload/images/_de/3443/img06pop.jpg / www.flysilverjet.com

Demographic Destinies
2 billion more people in 40 years –
Demographics is Driving Economics
445 731 665 5266
339

1998 4034
769 965
572

2008 2050 Source : United Nations

Life Redefined

http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/aubrey_de_grey_says_we_can_avoid_aging.html

Economic Power Shifts
The Top 20 in 2025?
GDP US$

Source: IMF WEO 2009, PwC ‘the World in 2050 March 2008 edition

Innovating Travel – The Middle East

US$ 4.1 Trillion investment by 2025
Over 1170 new hotels offering 820,000+ rooms by 2025
Capacity for 320 million extra passengers by 2012
130 new aircraft by 2030
170 million Tourists by 2020

Unbundling the $4.1 Trillion

• Hotels US$ 389Bn
• Leisure Developments US$ 1673Bn
• Airlines US$ 212Bn
• Airports US$ 59Bn
• Cruise Lines US$ 10Bn

• Tourism Promotion /
Underlying Infrastructure US$ 1757Bn

Future of Travel
What will happen to your personal flying behaviour by 2015?

• 65% expect costs to rise on
domestic and international flights

Up Down

• Personal flights (Dom) 29% 28%

• Personal flights (Int) 39% 24%

• Travel Budgets 44% 32%

http://www.theage.com.au/ffximage/2007/10/15/SingaporeA380_w
ideweb__470x312,0.jpg
http://airlinewallpapers.com/gallery/albums/GermanWings/Germa
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events nwingsA319.png

I will book the bulk of my travel online by 2015

64%

31%

3% 2%

Very likely Likely Unlikely Very unlikely

Hotel Stays in 2015
What do you expect to happen to your personal hotel stays by 2015?

Up Down

• No. of nights (Dom) 31% 27%

• No. of nights (Int) 42% 23%

• Hotel Budgets 40% 32%


Self-Organising Events

Event organisers will show online videos of
potential speakers and delegates will vote
on who they most want to see (78%)


Unconferences and Large
Group Interventions
• Open Space
• Simu-Real
• Real Time Strategic Change
• Valentines
• Future Search
• Foo Camp
• Bar Camp

Most conferences and events will
incorporate large group processes such as
Open Space to facilitate joint problem
solving and sharing of ideas (82%)

http://www.ietm.org/upload/pictures/2_20070417203356.jpg
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events http://floatingterritories.org/ef10st/img/openspace.jpg

Event Content

• Professional speakers will be a rarity as events will focus 34%
more on interaction between delegates

• Speakers will be paid based on the evaluations they 48%
receive


Event Design
• Less large open stands and
more ‘appointment only’ booths
or suites (58%)

• Live product launches will be
rare and most will happen over
the internet (53%)

• Budgets for meeting and event
design will decrease relative to
2008 (59%)

http://www.civilization.ca/cmc/exhibitions/aborig/iqqaipaa/images/exhibition1.jpg
• The use of external meeting
planners will decrease relative
to 2008 (52%)


Geolocation

http://people.kmi.open.ac.uk/marc/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2006/10/radiusim.jpg

Multi-
Sensory
Experiences

http://delivery.acm.org/10.1145/1190000/1186267/p35-haque.pdf?key1=1186267&key2=4018883711&coll=&dl=ACM&CFID=15151515&CFTOKEN=6184618

Augmented Reality

Video visors will record everything you see and hear at
an event in full 3D so you can replay it and relay it to
your colleagues (60%)
http://www.theapplecollection.com/design/pcproto/images/segavr.jpg
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events http://www.virtualworldlets.net/Resources/Hosted/Resource.php?Name=ARWillWork

Event Technology

Use of display technologies such as 3D television and 3D
holograms will be common in live presentations (86%)
http://www.hdtvinfo.eu/pics/Philips_3D_TV.jpg
Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events http://farm1.static.flickr.com/50/108326490_479ba8be45.jpg?v=0

Technology – Smart Phones
Telephony Connectivity
• Voice • Cellular
• Messaging • Up to 14 bands
• SIM card • WLAN/BT
• Phonebook • GPS
• Ring Tones • NFC
• Security • FM

Data/ Multimedia
Enterprise • Camera 8-16M
• 100Mbps • Camcorder
• Email • 24M Color Display
• IMS • Memory (160GB)
• Browsing • Multiformat A/V
• HD Video/TV out
• VPN
• Games
• PIM
• Ecommerce
Software (50-100M Tps)
• Protocols • DRM
• Payments
• Middleware
• Applications
• User Interface
• Minimize fragmentation

Participants will be able to monitor an entire event via their mobile phone and
determine which sessions to attend based on live video feeds (82%)

Virtual Meetings

Most conferences
will combine a live
event with online
participation via
virtual worlds
such as Second
Life (72%)

Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events http://meetingtechonline.com/articles_Hosting_Virtual_Conferences.aspx

Telepresence

Telepresence video conferencing will be used to replace at least 50% of
international in-company meetings (50%)
Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events http://i.treehugger.com/images/2007/5/24/videoconferencing.gif

Event Alternatives
• Most companies will insist on staff participating remotely 71%
using 3D meeting technology (such as video visors and
augmented reality) instead of travelling to events unless
essential

• Meeting rooms will generally include large 3D displays so 81%
that people can attend remotely

• Many virtual environment websites (like today's Second
Life) will exist to provide businesses with suitably equipped 58%
on-line meeting areas, staffed by AI assistants.

Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events

Event Economics
Up Down
• Price of attending a 57% 28%
conference or meeting

• Cost of running a 70% 19%
conference or meeting

• Number of conferences 28% 35%
and meetings you’ll
attend

• Your budget for 36% 36%
conference / meeting
attendance
Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events http://www.climatechangefraud.com/content/blogcategory/15/224/7/14/

Delegate Business Models
• Most events will have free 32%
attendance – paid for by sponsors

• Key attendees will wear sponsor 51%
logos in return for free participation
at events

• Events will adopt a ‘pay what you 22%
think it’s worth’ model for attendees

Exhibitor Charging Models
• Events will offer exhibitors free stands
42%
in return for a proportion of the
revenues generated from an event

• Event organisers will offer free exhibitor 51%
space in return for a fee per pre-booked
meeting

• Event organisers will offer free exhibitor 55%
space in return for a fee per visitor

New Revenue Models
• Live event attendees will have 56%
their participation fees
reduced according to the
number of attendees they can
generate for a parallel virtual
event

• Presentations at events will 88%
be streamed live to the web
so remote participants can
pay to watch individual
sessions

• All conference sessions will
86%
available to watch on a pay
per view basis after the event

http://www.aacr.org/
Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events http://www.changethethought.com/wp-content/ted.jpg

Environment

http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/photo/2008/06/16/PH2008061601786.jpg

Environmental Control
• Hotels and venues that do not have a zero 23%
environmental footprint (waste, energy use,
emissions) will be out of business
• Offsetting of emissions will be mandatory for all 77%
airlines
• Passengers will face personal carbon limits that
25%
dramatically restrict the number of flights they can
take
• Business people will need to apply for permits to fly,
18%
proving the business benefit outweighs
environmental impact


What does the timeline of
developments look like for your
key markets?

Meeting 2015 - Conclusions
• Demand will hold up
• Live still alive
• Technology central to
future delivery
• New business models
will evolve
• Sustainability still on the
agenda
http://www.mrcheckout.net/tradeshow454.jpg
http://davebost.com/images/FlyingaroundaVisualStudioLaunchevent_1331A/SLLaunch.jpg

Designing Your Future
• 50 key trends
• 100 emerging trends
• 10 major patterns of change
• Key challenges and choices for
leaders
• Strategic decision making
framework
• Scenarios for 2012
• Key futures tools and techniques
• Published August 2008
• Price $69.95 / £49.95 / €54.95
• Email invoice request to
rohit@fastfuture.com

Rohit Talwar - Profile
• Global futurist and founder of Fast Future Research.

• Award winning speaker on future insights and strategic
innovation – addressing leadership audiences in 40
countries on 5 continents

• Author of Designing Your Future – Published 08/2008

• Profiled by UK’s Independent Newspaper as one of the Top
10 Global Future Thinkers

• Led futures research, scenario planning and strategic
consultancy projects for clients in telecommunications,
technology, pharmaceuticals, banking, travel and tourism,
environment, food and government sectors

• Clients include 3M, BBC, BT, BAe, Bayer, Chloride, DTC De
Beers, DHL, EADS, Electrolux, E&Y, GE, Hoover, Hyundai,
IBM, ING, Intel, KPMG, M&S, Nakheel, Nokia, Nomura,
Novartis, OECD, Orange, Panasonic, Pfizer, PwC,
Samsung, Shell, Siemens, Symbian, Yell , numerous
international associations and governments in the US, UK,
Finland, Dubai, Nigeria, S. Arabia and Singapore.

Our Services
Bespoke research; Identification &
Analysis of Future Trends, Drivers &
Shocks
Public Speaking, In-
Company Briefings, Accelerated Scenario
Seminars and Planning, Timelining &
Workshops Future Mapping

Personal Futuring for
Leaders and Leadership Expert Consultations &
Teams Futures Think Tanks

Identification of
Design & Facilitation of Opportunities for
Innovation, Incubation Innovation and Strategic
& Venturing
Programmes Strategy Creation & Investment
Development of
Implementation
Roadmaps

Example Projects
• Public and private client research e.g. the future of :
– The Future of Luxury Real Estate in the Middle East
– Designing Your Future (Published August 2008) – book written for the American Society
of Association Executives & The Center for Association Leadership
– Travel and tourism e.g. The Future of Travel and Tourism in the Middle East – a Vision
to 2020 (Underway)
– Future of Travel and Tourism Investment in Saudi Arabia (Underway)
– Scenarios for the global economy for 2030 and the implications for migration (underway)
– Global Economies – e.g. The Future of China – the Path to 2020
– Winning in India and China
– Aviation and Airports e.g. Aviation 2030
– Meetings, conferences , exhibitions and events – e.g. One Step Beyond – Future trends
and challenges for the events industry
• Strategic advice to industry players
• Confidential advisory and coaching services to CEOs and top teams
• Public speaking at public conferences and in-company events
• Future thinking workshops and retreats

Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau 01 June 2009

Empfohlen

Empfohlen

Weitere ähnliche Inhalte

Was ist angesagt?

Was ist angesagt? (18)

Ähnlich wie Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau 01 June 2009

Ähnlich wie Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau 01 June 2009 (20)

Mehr von Rohit Talwar

Mehr von Rohit Talwar (20)

Kürzlich hochgeladen

Kürzlich hochgeladen (20)

Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau 01 June 2009