100% Renewable Energy by 2050: Fact or Fantasy

John Farrell
John FarrellDecentralized and locally owned renewable energy um Institute for Local Self-Reliance
FA C T O R FA N TA S Y ?
100% RENEWABLE ENERGY BY 2050
John Farrell
Director of Democratic Energy, Institute for Local Self-Reliance
August 27, 2015
An illustration of a Vox article by David Roberts
http://bit.ly/100pctRE
I T ’ S P O S S I B L E
• Jacobson state by state studies
Source: Mark Jacobson via David Roberts
I T ’ S P O S S I B L E *
• Jacobson state by state studies
Source: Mark Jacobson via David Roberts
* L I K E LY
U N D E R E S T I M AT E S
D I S T R I B U T E D
G E N E R AT I O N
F O R E V E RY S TAT E
Source: Mark Jacobson via David Roberts
W I T H A F E W C H A N G E S I N D I R E C T I O N
Credit: mark notari via Flickr
• Electrify everything
• transportation, heating/cooling, and industry
1 . E L E C T R I F Y E V E RY T H I N G
Credit: Ken Bosma via Flickr
2 . R E D U C E U S E
39.3%
Compared to business-as-usual
X X X
X
X X
3 . W I N D - WAT E R - S O L A R O N LY
2020
2025
2030
015
2050
after
for new
power
plants
2015 2020
IN JUST
5 YEARS…
Heating,	
  drying,	
  and	
  
cooking	
  in	
  the	
  residential	
  
and	
  commercial	
  sectors
Credit: Mark Jacobson,
via David Roberts
ELECTRIFICATION TIMELINE TO REACH 100% RENEWABLE BY 2050
2015 20252020
IN JUST
10 YEARS…
All	
  new	
  ships	
  and	
  
ports	
  
All	
  new	
  trains	
  and	
  
buses	
  
Heating,	
  drying,	
  and	
  
cooking	
  in	
  the	
  residential	
  
and	
  commercial	
  sectors
All	
  new	
  heavy	
  duty	
  trucks	
  
Credit: Mark Jacobson,
via David Roberts
ELECTRIFICATION TIMELINE TO REACH 100% RENEWABLE BY 2050
All	
  new	
  light-­‐duty	
  
vehicles	
  
2015 203020252020
IN JUST
15 YEARS…
All	
  new	
  ships	
  and	
  
ports	
  
All	
  new	
  trains	
  and	
  
buses	
  
Heating,	
  drying,	
  and	
  
cooking	
  in	
  the	
  residential	
  
and	
  commercial	
  sectors
All	
  new	
  heavy	
  duty	
  trucks	
  
Credit: Mark Jacobson,
via David Roberts
All	
  new	
  small	
  marine	
  
vessels	
  
ELECTRIFICATION TIMELINE TO REACH 100% RENEWABLE BY 2050
All	
  new	
  light-­‐duty	
  
vehicles	
  
2015 203020252020
IN JUST
20 YEARS…
All	
  new	
  ships	
  and	
  
ports	
  
All	
  new	
  trains	
  and	
  
buses	
  
All	
  new	
  small,	
  short-­‐
range	
  planes
2035
Heating,	
  drying,	
  and	
  
cooking	
  in	
  the	
  residential	
  
and	
  commercial	
  sectors
All	
  new	
  heavy	
  duty	
  trucks	
  
Credit: Mark Jacobson,
via David Roberts
All	
  new	
  small	
  marine	
  
vessels	
  
ELECTRIFICATION TIMELINE TO REACH 100% RENEWABLE BY 2050
All	
  new	
  light-­‐duty	
  
vehicles	
  
2015 203020252020
IN JUST
25 YEARS…
All	
  new	
  ships	
  and	
  
ports	
  
All	
  new	
  trains	
  and	
  
buses	
  
All	
  new	
  small,	
  short-­‐
range	
  planes
2035 2040
Heating,	
  drying,	
  and	
  
cooking	
  in	
  the	
  residential	
  
and	
  commercial	
  sectors
All	
  new	
  heavy	
  duty	
  trucks	
  
All	
  new	
  long-­‐haul	
  
aircraft
Credit: Mark Jacobson,
via David Roberts
All	
  new	
  small	
  marine	
  
vessels	
  
ELECTRIFICATION TIMELINE TO REACH 100% RENEWABLE BY 2050
The recommendations —
indeed, all 28 — would require
coordinated action from
Congress, federal agencies,
state legislatures, and local
officials. Together, they
represent an unprecedented
level of government activism,
a skein of incentives, mandates,
standards, and laws unmatched
in U.S. history.
A B I G L I F T
1 0 0 % W O R T H I T
Saves average person
$260 per year
Adds 2 million, 40-year
construction and
operations jobs
Saves $600 billion in
health-related costs
100%
Renewable
Credit: Anssi Koskinen via Flickr
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100% Renewable Energy by 2050: Fact or Fantasy

  • 1. FA C T O R FA N TA S Y ? 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY BY 2050 John Farrell Director of Democratic Energy, Institute for Local Self-Reliance August 27, 2015 An illustration of a Vox article by David Roberts http://bit.ly/100pctRE
  • 2. I T ’ S P O S S I B L E • Jacobson state by state studies Source: Mark Jacobson via David Roberts
  • 3. I T ’ S P O S S I B L E * • Jacobson state by state studies Source: Mark Jacobson via David Roberts * L I K E LY U N D E R E S T I M AT E S D I S T R I B U T E D G E N E R AT I O N
  • 4. F O R E V E RY S TAT E Source: Mark Jacobson via David Roberts
  • 5. W I T H A F E W C H A N G E S I N D I R E C T I O N Credit: mark notari via Flickr
  • 6. • Electrify everything • transportation, heating/cooling, and industry 1 . E L E C T R I F Y E V E RY T H I N G Credit: Ken Bosma via Flickr
  • 7. 2 . R E D U C E U S E 39.3% Compared to business-as-usual
  • 8. X X X X X X 3 . W I N D - WAT E R - S O L A R O N LY 2020 2025 2030 015 2050 after for new power plants
  • 9. 2015 2020 IN JUST 5 YEARS… Heating,  drying,  and   cooking  in  the  residential   and  commercial  sectors Credit: Mark Jacobson, via David Roberts ELECTRIFICATION TIMELINE TO REACH 100% RENEWABLE BY 2050
  • 10. 2015 20252020 IN JUST 10 YEARS… All  new  ships  and   ports   All  new  trains  and   buses   Heating,  drying,  and   cooking  in  the  residential   and  commercial  sectors All  new  heavy  duty  trucks   Credit: Mark Jacobson, via David Roberts ELECTRIFICATION TIMELINE TO REACH 100% RENEWABLE BY 2050
  • 11. All  new  light-­‐duty   vehicles   2015 203020252020 IN JUST 15 YEARS… All  new  ships  and   ports   All  new  trains  and   buses   Heating,  drying,  and   cooking  in  the  residential   and  commercial  sectors All  new  heavy  duty  trucks   Credit: Mark Jacobson, via David Roberts All  new  small  marine   vessels   ELECTRIFICATION TIMELINE TO REACH 100% RENEWABLE BY 2050
  • 12. All  new  light-­‐duty   vehicles   2015 203020252020 IN JUST 20 YEARS… All  new  ships  and   ports   All  new  trains  and   buses   All  new  small,  short-­‐ range  planes 2035 Heating,  drying,  and   cooking  in  the  residential   and  commercial  sectors All  new  heavy  duty  trucks   Credit: Mark Jacobson, via David Roberts All  new  small  marine   vessels   ELECTRIFICATION TIMELINE TO REACH 100% RENEWABLE BY 2050
  • 13. All  new  light-­‐duty   vehicles   2015 203020252020 IN JUST 25 YEARS… All  new  ships  and   ports   All  new  trains  and   buses   All  new  small,  short-­‐ range  planes 2035 2040 Heating,  drying,  and   cooking  in  the  residential   and  commercial  sectors All  new  heavy  duty  trucks   All  new  long-­‐haul   aircraft Credit: Mark Jacobson, via David Roberts All  new  small  marine   vessels   ELECTRIFICATION TIMELINE TO REACH 100% RENEWABLE BY 2050
  • 14. The recommendations — indeed, all 28 — would require coordinated action from Congress, federal agencies, state legislatures, and local officials. Together, they represent an unprecedented level of government activism, a skein of incentives, mandates, standards, and laws unmatched in U.S. history. A B I G L I F T
  • 15. 1 0 0 % W O R T H I T Saves average person $260 per year Adds 2 million, 40-year construction and operations jobs Saves $600 billion in health-related costs 100% Renewable Credit: Anssi Koskinen via Flickr