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The New Industrial Revolution?
Exploring future scenarios of value creation
Professor Robin Teigland
www.robinteigland.com...
People
• “Net generation”
• 24x7 “mobile” workforce
• Gig economy
• Online learning
• Sharing not owning
• Sustainability
...
If the rate of change on the
outside (of an organization)
exceeds the rate of
change on the inside,
the end is near....
-J...
Digital is the main reason
just over half the Fortune 500 companies
have disappeared since the year 2000.
-Pierre Nanterme...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iiEzf3J4iFk
All our knowledge is about the past,
but all our strategic decisions are about the future
Conway 2003
What we don’t know
w...
Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos
Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos
We always overestimate the change
that will occur in the next two years
and underestimate the change
that will occur in th...
Updated from http://www.visualcapitalist.com/chart-largest-companies-market-cap-15-years/; statista, November 2018
$1.06T ...
While 63% of CEOs
believe AI will have a
larger impact on the
world than the
internet,….
https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/ceo-sur...
Free online AI courses
Smart Robots
H.I.S. Co. Hotels run by robots
Check-in
Other Automated Tasks
Concierge, Porters, Cleaning, Lawnmowing,
Room Service, Rob...
Alibaba’s FlyZoo Future Hotel
https://www.alizila.com/introducing-alibabas-flyzoo-future-hotel/
Exploitation Exploration
FIRM FOUNDED EMPLOYEES MKT CAP
BMW 1916 130,000 $56B
UBER 2009 16,000 $72B
MARRIOTT 1927 177,000 $40B
AIRBNB 2008 10,000 $...
Everytime you interact with an Airbnb
app or the website, you’re interacting
with machine learning in one way or
another.
...
Shifting market logics – The rise of platforms
Ericsson & Augur 2011
Merging e-commerce and brick’n mortar
Over 1 mln Mom & Pop
stores digitalized
Hema cashless supermarkets
with chefs & onli...
http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/fourth-industrial-revolution-need-know/
https://www.inc.com/glenn-leibowitz/meet-the-ceo-running-a-billion-dollar-company-with-no-offices-or-email.html
Co-living/co-working for giggers, entrepreneurs & FTEs
https://www.outsite.co/
Cohousing across all generations
Transformation of economic activity
Centralized,
hierarchical
organizations
Decentralized,
self-organizing
organizations
Scheveningen Harbor – The Hague
3D printer workshop on Lisette’s boat
Knowledge: RepRap community
E-commerce: Aliexpress
My first attempt at 3D printing – Successful!
Do-it-yourself (DIY) microfactory networks
Increasing forces
for local community and
circular economies
Smart cities and microgrids
Sustainable, circular shrimp
”Jag har inte sett så här fina räkor i Sverige sedan….. Nä jag
har ALDRIG sett så här fina rä...
From 30,000 parts to 50 parts with 3D printing
ReGen Villages – Fully self-sufficient
http://www.regenvillages.com/
So, how can we
prepare for the future?
Looking into the future?
• Forecast
–How we think the future will be
• Vision
–How we want the future to be
• Scenarios
–W...
FUTURE OF
VALUE
CREATION
Political Economic
Sociological
TechnologicalEnvironmental
Legal
PESTEL
http://www.hui.se/nyheter/arets-julklapp-2018
http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/fourth-industrial-revolution-need-know/
BA
Two individuals (organizations)
with the same number of contacts…
…but with very different
access to signals, ideas, and resources
BA
Peniche, Portugal
One hour north of Lisbon
Centuries of tradition
Tragedy of
the Commons
A Broken Economic Model
Exploration
Marine litter
on Peniche seafloor
Digital technologies enable
ocean opportunities
• Renewables
• Robotics and drones
• AI/ML/NN
• Marine simulations
• New m...
University
Shipyard
Port
Tourists
Entrepreneurs
Fishing Boats
Underutilized Resources
Warehouses
Fishermen
Digital Nomads
...
Mapping Ocean Litter with AI and
Underwater Drones
Recycling Ocean Waste with
Graphene and 3D Printing
Recovering Ocean Li...
Boundary spanning -> Future success
1. Build relationships across diverse networks, avoid echo chambers
2. Practice scenar...
Robin Teigland
www.robinteigland.com
www.slideshare.net/eteigland
robin.teigland@gmail.se
@RobinTeigland
http://www.go4sur...
New Industrial Revolution - LRF
New Industrial Revolution - LRF
New Industrial Revolution - LRF
New Industrial Revolution - LRF
New Industrial Revolution - LRF
New Industrial Revolution - LRF
New Industrial Revolution - LRF
New Industrial Revolution - LRF
New Industrial Revolution - LRF
New Industrial Revolution - LRF
New Industrial Revolution - LRF
New Industrial Revolution - LRF
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New Industrial Revolution - LRF

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Presentation for LRF in April 2019, https://www.lrf.se/mitt-lrf/engagera-dig-och-paverka/tank-om/tank-om-framtiden/

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New Industrial Revolution - LRF

  1. 1. The New Industrial Revolution? Exploring future scenarios of value creation Professor Robin Teigland www.robinteigland.com | www.slideshare.net/eteigland | robin.teigland@gmail.com | @RobinTeigland
  2. 2. People • “Net generation” • 24x7 “mobile” workforce • Gig economy • Online learning • Sharing not owning • Sustainability Technology • Broadband/wifi • Cloud, fog • Internet of Things • AI/ML/DL/NN • Autonomous vehicles • Smart robotics • VR/AR/Holography • 3D/4D printing/ALM • Blockchains • Nanotechnology • Quantum computing Open Source • Software • Hardware • Physibles Convergence of….. Finance • Microlending/microfinance • Crowdfunding/equity/P2P lending • Cryptocurrencies, tokens • Blockchains, smart contracts • Mobile money and payments • M2M/R2R payments
  3. 3. If the rate of change on the outside (of an organization) exceeds the rate of change on the inside, the end is near.... -Jack Welch
  4. 4. Digital is the main reason just over half the Fortune 500 companies have disappeared since the year 2000. -Pierre Nanterme, CEO Accenture, 2016 Yet..Digital disruption has only just begun.
  5. 5. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iiEzf3J4iFk
  6. 6. All our knowledge is about the past, but all our strategic decisions are about the future Conway 2003 What we don’t know we don’t know about the future What we know What we know we don’t know
  7. 7. Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos
  8. 8. Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos
  9. 9. We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. - Bill Gates, The Road Ahead, 1996
  10. 10. Updated from http://www.visualcapitalist.com/chart-largest-companies-market-cap-15-years/; statista, November 2018 $1.06T $754B$782B $820B 2018 $438B Technology (AI) replacing energy and banking
  11. 11. While 63% of CEOs believe AI will have a larger impact on the world than the internet,…. https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/ceo-survey/2019/report/pwc-22nd-annual-global-ceo-survey.pdf …only 3% have AI as fundamental to the organization’s operations.
  12. 12. Free online AI courses
  13. 13. Smart Robots
  14. 14. H.I.S. Co. Hotels run by robots Check-in Other Automated Tasks Concierge, Porters, Cleaning, Lawnmowing, Room Service, Robot Trashcan, Robot Fish Food Deliveries
  15. 15. Alibaba’s FlyZoo Future Hotel https://www.alizila.com/introducing-alibabas-flyzoo-future-hotel/
  16. 16. Exploitation Exploration
  17. 17. FIRM FOUNDED EMPLOYEES MKT CAP BMW 1916 130,000 $56B UBER 2009 16,000 $72B MARRIOTT 1927 177,000 $40B AIRBNB 2008 10,000 $38B WALT DISNEY 1923 199,000 $171B FACEBOOK 2004 25,000 $422B WALMART 1962 2,200,000 $300B ALIBABA 1999 66,000 $353B Adapted from Parker & Van Alstyne, with Choudary, 2016, updated November 2018 Something fundamental is changing
  18. 18. Everytime you interact with an Airbnb app or the website, you’re interacting with machine learning in one way or another. -Mike Curtis, VP of Engineering
  19. 19. Shifting market logics – The rise of platforms Ericsson & Augur 2011
  20. 20. Merging e-commerce and brick’n mortar Over 1 mln Mom & Pop stores digitalized Hema cashless supermarkets with chefs & online order delivery
  21. 21. http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/fourth-industrial-revolution-need-know/
  22. 22. https://www.inc.com/glenn-leibowitz/meet-the-ceo-running-a-billion-dollar-company-with-no-offices-or-email.html
  23. 23. Co-living/co-working for giggers, entrepreneurs & FTEs https://www.outsite.co/
  24. 24. Cohousing across all generations
  25. 25. Transformation of economic activity Centralized, hierarchical organizations Decentralized, self-organizing organizations
  26. 26. Scheveningen Harbor – The Hague
  27. 27. 3D printer workshop on Lisette’s boat Knowledge: RepRap community E-commerce: Aliexpress
  28. 28. My first attempt at 3D printing – Successful!
  29. 29. Do-it-yourself (DIY) microfactory networks
  30. 30. Increasing forces for local community and circular economies
  31. 31. Smart cities and microgrids
  32. 32. Sustainable, circular shrimp ”Jag har inte sett så här fina räkor i Sverige sedan….. Nä jag har ALDRIG sett så här fina räkor.. Smaken den är underbar, köttet jag kan inte ens beskriva det, det är som en blandning mellan hummer och havskräfta” -Tareq Taylor
  33. 33. From 30,000 parts to 50 parts with 3D printing
  34. 34. ReGen Villages – Fully self-sufficient http://www.regenvillages.com/
  35. 35. So, how can we prepare for the future?
  36. 36. Looking into the future? • Forecast –How we think the future will be • Vision –How we want the future to be • Scenarios –What the future can be –“Alternative memories” from the future ? ? ? ?
  37. 37. FUTURE OF VALUE CREATION Political Economic Sociological TechnologicalEnvironmental Legal PESTEL
  38. 38. http://www.hui.se/nyheter/arets-julklapp-2018
  39. 39. http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/fourth-industrial-revolution-need-know/
  40. 40. BA Two individuals (organizations) with the same number of contacts…
  41. 41. …but with very different access to signals, ideas, and resources BA
  42. 42. Peniche, Portugal One hour north of Lisbon
  43. 43. Centuries of tradition
  44. 44. Tragedy of the Commons
  45. 45. A Broken Economic Model
  46. 46. Exploration
  47. 47. Marine litter on Peniche seafloor
  48. 48. Digital technologies enable ocean opportunities • Renewables • Robotics and drones • AI/ML/NN • Marine simulations • New material technologies • Additive manufacturing • Internet of things • Blockchain Entrepreneurial Mindset
  49. 49. University Shipyard Port Tourists Entrepreneurs Fishing Boats Underutilized Resources Warehouses Fishermen Digital Nomads Students Local Industries
  50. 50. Mapping Ocean Litter with AI and Underwater Drones Recycling Ocean Waste with Graphene and 3D Printing Recovering Ocean Litter with Repurposed Fishing Vessels Manufacturing combined with Blockchain PENICHE OCEAN WATCH A Blue Circular Economy Based on Ocean Litter Sustainable Ocean Entrepreneurship
  51. 51. Boundary spanning -> Future success 1. Build relationships across diverse networks, avoid echo chambers 2. Practice scenario thinking and look for signals from the periphery 3. Ask “What if?”, challenge basic assumptions, and experiment 4. Ensure access to resources, not ownership, through your networks Boundary spanner
  52. 52. Robin Teigland www.robinteigland.com www.slideshare.net/eteigland robin.teigland@gmail.se @RobinTeigland http://www.go4surf.pt/ Trond Gunnar Teigland tgteigland94@gmail.com https://www.facebook.com/PenicheOceanWatch @penicheoceanwatch If you love knowledge, set it free! OCEAN TECH HUB

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