1. The New Industrial Revolution?
Exploring future scenarios of value creation
Professor Robin Teigland
www.robinteigland.com | www.slideshare.net/eteigland | robin.teigland@gmail.com | @RobinTeigland
2. People
• “Net generation”
• 24x7 “mobile” workforce
• Gig economy
• Online learning
• Sharing not owning
• Sustainability
Technology
• Broadband/wifi
• Cloud, fog
• Internet of Things
• AI/ML/DL/NN
• Autonomous vehicles
• Smart robotics
• VR/AR/Holography
• 3D/4D printing/ALM
• Blockchains
• Nanotechnology
• Quantum computing
Open Source
• Software
• Hardware
• Physibles
Convergence of…..
Finance
• Microlending/microfinance
• Crowdfunding/equity/P2P lending
• Cryptocurrencies, tokens
• Blockchains, smart contracts
• Mobile money and payments
• M2M/R2R payments
3. If the rate of change on the
outside (of an organization)
exceeds the rate of
change on the inside,
the end is near....
-Jack Welch
4. Digital is the main reason
just over half the Fortune 500 companies
have disappeared since the year 2000.
-Pierre Nanterme, CEO Accenture, 2016
Yet..Digital disruption
has only just begun.
5. While 63% of CEOs believe AI will
have a larger impact on the world
than the internet,….
https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/ceo-survey/2019/report/pwc-22nd-annual-global-ceo-survey.pdf
…only 3% have
AI as fundamental to the
organization’s operations.
6. All our knowledge is about the past,
but all our strategic decisions are about the future
Conway 2003
What we don’t know
we don’t know
about the future
What we know
What we know
we don’t know
9. We always overestimate the change
that will occur in the next two years
and underestimate the change
that will occur in the next ten.
- Bill Gates, The Road Ahead, 1996
13. FIRM FOUNDED EMPLOYEES MKT CAP
BMW 1916 130,000 $56B
UBER 2009 16,000 $72B
MARRIOTT 1927 177,000 $40B
AIRBNB 2008 10,000 $38B
WALT DISNEY 1923 199,000 $171B
FACEBOOK 2004 25,000 $422B
WALMART 1962 2,200,000 $300B
ALIBABA 1999 66,000 $353B
Adapted from Parker & Van Alstyne, with Choudary, 2016, updated November 2018
Something fundamental is changing
15. • Supplier credit checks
• Fake merchandise recognition
• Product recommendations to shoppers, then communicated with
retailers to increase inventory
• Chatbots answering customer queries and understanding
emotion to bring in human when necessary
• Supply chain optimization
• Robots pack and drones deliver
AI and ML at the core
16. Merging e-commerce and brick’n mortar
Over 1 mln Mom & Pop
stores digitalized
Hema cashless supermarkets
with chefs & online order delivery
30. Looking into the future?
• Forecast
–How we think the future will be
• Vision
–How we want the future to be
• Scenarios
–What the future can be
–“Alternative memories” from the future
?
?
?
?
36. Sustainable, circular shrimp
”Jag har inte sett så här fina räkor i Sverige sedan….. Nä jag
har ALDRIG sett så här fina räkor.. Smaken den är underbar,
köttet jag kan inte ens beskriva det, det är som en blandning
mellan hummer och havskräfta” -Tareq Taylor
50. Mapping Ocean Litter with AI and
Underwater Drones
Recycling Ocean Waste with
Graphene and 3D Printing
Recovering Ocean Litter with
Repurposed Fishing Vessels
Manufacturing combined
with Blockchain
PENICHE OCEAN WATCH
A Blue Circular Economy Based on Ocean Litter
Sustainable Ocean
Entrepreneurship
51. Boundary spanning -> Future success
1. Build relationships across diverse networks, avoid echo chambers
2. Practice scenario thinking and look for signals from the periphery
3. Ask “What if?”, challenge basic assumptions, and experiment
4. Ensure access to resources, not ownership, through your networks
Boundary
spanner