Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI) and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Seventh International Conference on Ethiopian Economy, June 24, 2010

1. Sinafikeh Asrat, Gerawork Getachew and Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse Ethiopia Strategy Support Program II International Food Policy Research Institute A Presentation at the 8 th International Conference on the Ethiopian Economy Ethiopian Economic Association and Ethiopia Strategy Support Program II June 24-26, 2010 Trends and Determinants of Cereal Productivity: Econometric Analysis of Nationally Representative Plot-level Data The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not represent the official positions of their respective institutions. ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE

7. Setting the Scene – Recent Trends in Cereal Production in Ethiopia Source : Authors’ computation using CSA data (CSA (July 2006), CSA (July 2007), CSA (June 2008), and CSA (May 2009)). Table 1: Cereal Production by crop – 2004/05-2008/09 (1997-2001 E.C.)

11. Cereal Production – International Comparison

17. Determinants of Yield

29. Trends in Input-Output Prices Ratios (2000-2009 )

30. Selected Indicators of Returns to Fertilizer Use Output Input Ratio Teff Wheat Maize Differences in simple average yields (fertilizer users vs. non users) 0.87 2.51 3.27 Yield gains at average application by users vs. no application (using fitted values) 1.06 1.9 1.02 Yield gains due to 1 quintal increase in fertilizer application by users (using fitted values) 0.64 2.15 -1.56 Value to Cost Ratio Differences in simple average yields (fertilizer users vs. non users) 1.06 1.8 1.71 yield gains at average application by users vs. no application (using fitted values) 0.96 0.9 0.39 yield gains due to 1 quintal increase in fertilizer application by users (using fitted values) 0.78 1.55 -0.82