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The crisis: the science of climate change ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Rapid increase of carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere in last 150 years – from  280  ppm to  370  ppm.
Hockey stick science :  Since 1900, climate warmed by 0.8 ºC. Past 10 year temperature highest since records started
Is anthropogenic : caused by burning of fossil fuel; for our energy needs
The challenge: what is the least risky target?  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Business as usual is 5°C; even if we stabilise at current levels; increase is dangerous
Impacts : devastation or can we cope?  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Insurance industry understands risk: economic losses ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
3-truths: Climate change political and economic challenge ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
CO2 emissions linked to energy and linked to economic growth
Drastic reduction needed: For 450 ppm (2°C) reduce  85% by 2050
The gap : the challenge to re-invent what we mean by growth?
United States 21.13% Europe 16.58% Japan 4.36% Rest of the world 57.93% Sharing the  ecological  and  economic  space: CO2 emissions from fossil fuels in 2005
 
Historical emissions : A tonne of CO2 emitted in 1850 same value as tonne of CO2 emitted in 2005 Natural debt of nations: will it be paid or written off? At what cost?
Canada United States Brazil Guyana Germany Netherlands United Kingdom Russia Kenya South Africa Tanzania Australia Bangladesh China India Japan Nepal New Zealand Vanuatu 0.11 0.11 Per capita CO2: cannot freeze global inequity 19.24 20.14 1.94 2.07 10.24 16.44 9.55 11.88 0.28 9.56 20.24 0.28 4.07 1.07 9.65 9.37 0.46
Canada United States Brazil Guyana Germany Netherlands United Kingdom Russia Kenya South Africa Tanzania Australia Bangladesh China India Japan Nepal New Zealand Vanuatu 0.11 0.11 World average  4 tonnes  per person per year Can sustain  2 tonnes  per person per year 19.24 20.14 1.94 2.07 10.24 16.44 9.55 11.88 0.28 9.56 20.24 0.28 4.07 1.07 9.65 9.37 0.46 4.37 2.00
Canada United States Brazil Guyana Germany Netherlands United Kingdom Russia Kenya South Africa Tanzania Australia Bangladesh China India Japan Nepal New Zealand Vanuatu 0.11 0.11 Who? 19.24 20.14 1.94 2.07 10.24 16.44 9.55 11.88 0.28 9.56 20.24 0.28 4.07 1.07 9.65 9.37 0.46 4.37 2.00
Canada United States Brazil Guyana Germany Netherlands United Kingdom Russia Kenya South Africa Tanzania Australia Bangladesh China India Japan Nepal New Zealand Vanuatu 0.11 0.11 Who? 19.24 20.14 1.94 2.07 10.24 16.44 9.55 11.88 0.28 9.56 20.24 0.28 4.07 1.07 9.65 9.37 0.46 4.37 2.00
Canada United States Brazil Guyana Germany Netherlands United Kingdom Russia Kenya South Africa Tanzania Australia Bangladesh China India Japan Nepal New Zealand Vanuatu 0.11 0.11 Reduce – to converge 19.24 20.14 1.94 2.07 10.24 16.44 9.55 11.88 0.28 9.56 20.24 0.28 4.07 1.07 9.65 9.37 0.46 4.37 2.00
Canada United States Brazil Guyana Germany Netherlands United Kingdom Russia Kenya South Africa Tanzania Australia Bangladesh China India Japan Nepal New Zealand Vanuatu 0.11 0.11 Increase to converge Climate justice 19.24 20.14 1.94 2.07 10.24 16.44 9.55 11.88 0.28 9.56 20.24 0.28 4.07 1.07 9.65 9.37 0.46 4.37 2.00
1 US citizen = ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
2007: High on rhetoric. Low on action ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Decreased 3% only because of decrease of economies under transition. Rich have increased
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Big words and small change
No energy transition made  Little to reduce energy emissions
Transport emissions up Energy industry emissions up Manufacturing down. Exported problem?
No more kindergarten approach ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The avoid-leapfrog strategy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Stabilised emissions: but challenges remain
Can change pathway to growth A KEY QUESTION Do we have to go through the same stages of environmental management that the West went through or can we leapfrog? Pre-Euro I   Poor diesel Euro I   Improved diesel Euro II   Natural gas Euro III   Hydrogen Euro IV
The car has marginalised bus, not replaced it  Can avoid pollution, congestion and emissions Can re-invent mobility Delhi placing order for 6,000 new buses; building bus rapid transport corridor; building metro; investing in light rail.. Finance ministers can reduce taxes on buses, increase on cars…
Options exist: re-invent growth. Avoid pollution ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
In our world; forests are  habitats  of people. Forests have economic value. Protecting forests needs paying for services; paying local communities to protect forests; benefit from its resources Countries cannot “keep” forests without getting economic value Costs for carbon storage peanuts..
Options but.. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
CDM instrument to make this transition. But designed to fail  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
High end technology will cost money
No rocket science needed ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Finance ministers challenge ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Not acceptable
Politics for future ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Challenge to Commonwealth ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Leadership for our common world ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Otherwise road to ‘common’ hell

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Climate Equity For Commonwealth 2007

  • 1.
  • 2.
  • 3. Rapid increase of carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere in last 150 years – from 280 ppm to 370 ppm.
  • 4. Hockey stick science : Since 1900, climate warmed by 0.8 ºC. Past 10 year temperature highest since records started
  • 5. Is anthropogenic : caused by burning of fossil fuel; for our energy needs
  • 6.
  • 7. Business as usual is 5°C; even if we stabilise at current levels; increase is dangerous
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11. CO2 emissions linked to energy and linked to economic growth
  • 12. Drastic reduction needed: For 450 ppm (2°C) reduce 85% by 2050
  • 13. The gap : the challenge to re-invent what we mean by growth?
  • 14. United States 21.13% Europe 16.58% Japan 4.36% Rest of the world 57.93% Sharing the ecological and economic space: CO2 emissions from fossil fuels in 2005
  • 15.  
  • 16. Historical emissions : A tonne of CO2 emitted in 1850 same value as tonne of CO2 emitted in 2005 Natural debt of nations: will it be paid or written off? At what cost?
  • 17. Canada United States Brazil Guyana Germany Netherlands United Kingdom Russia Kenya South Africa Tanzania Australia Bangladesh China India Japan Nepal New Zealand Vanuatu 0.11 0.11 Per capita CO2: cannot freeze global inequity 19.24 20.14 1.94 2.07 10.24 16.44 9.55 11.88 0.28 9.56 20.24 0.28 4.07 1.07 9.65 9.37 0.46
  • 18. Canada United States Brazil Guyana Germany Netherlands United Kingdom Russia Kenya South Africa Tanzania Australia Bangladesh China India Japan Nepal New Zealand Vanuatu 0.11 0.11 World average 4 tonnes per person per year Can sustain 2 tonnes per person per year 19.24 20.14 1.94 2.07 10.24 16.44 9.55 11.88 0.28 9.56 20.24 0.28 4.07 1.07 9.65 9.37 0.46 4.37 2.00
  • 19. Canada United States Brazil Guyana Germany Netherlands United Kingdom Russia Kenya South Africa Tanzania Australia Bangladesh China India Japan Nepal New Zealand Vanuatu 0.11 0.11 Who? 19.24 20.14 1.94 2.07 10.24 16.44 9.55 11.88 0.28 9.56 20.24 0.28 4.07 1.07 9.65 9.37 0.46 4.37 2.00
  • 20. Canada United States Brazil Guyana Germany Netherlands United Kingdom Russia Kenya South Africa Tanzania Australia Bangladesh China India Japan Nepal New Zealand Vanuatu 0.11 0.11 Who? 19.24 20.14 1.94 2.07 10.24 16.44 9.55 11.88 0.28 9.56 20.24 0.28 4.07 1.07 9.65 9.37 0.46 4.37 2.00
  • 21. Canada United States Brazil Guyana Germany Netherlands United Kingdom Russia Kenya South Africa Tanzania Australia Bangladesh China India Japan Nepal New Zealand Vanuatu 0.11 0.11 Reduce – to converge 19.24 20.14 1.94 2.07 10.24 16.44 9.55 11.88 0.28 9.56 20.24 0.28 4.07 1.07 9.65 9.37 0.46 4.37 2.00
  • 22. Canada United States Brazil Guyana Germany Netherlands United Kingdom Russia Kenya South Africa Tanzania Australia Bangladesh China India Japan Nepal New Zealand Vanuatu 0.11 0.11 Increase to converge Climate justice 19.24 20.14 1.94 2.07 10.24 16.44 9.55 11.88 0.28 9.56 20.24 0.28 4.07 1.07 9.65 9.37 0.46 4.37 2.00
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25.  
  • 26. Decreased 3% only because of decrease of economies under transition. Rich have increased
  • 27.
  • 28. Big words and small change
  • 29. No energy transition made Little to reduce energy emissions
  • 30. Transport emissions up Energy industry emissions up Manufacturing down. Exported problem?
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33.  
  • 34. Stabilised emissions: but challenges remain
  • 35. Can change pathway to growth A KEY QUESTION Do we have to go through the same stages of environmental management that the West went through or can we leapfrog? Pre-Euro I Poor diesel Euro I Improved diesel Euro II Natural gas Euro III Hydrogen Euro IV
  • 36. The car has marginalised bus, not replaced it Can avoid pollution, congestion and emissions Can re-invent mobility Delhi placing order for 6,000 new buses; building bus rapid transport corridor; building metro; investing in light rail.. Finance ministers can reduce taxes on buses, increase on cars…
  • 37.
  • 38. In our world; forests are habitats of people. Forests have economic value. Protecting forests needs paying for services; paying local communities to protect forests; benefit from its resources Countries cannot “keep” forests without getting economic value Costs for carbon storage peanuts..
  • 39.
  • 40.
  • 41. High end technology will cost money
  • 42.
  • 43.
  • 45.
  • 46.
  • 47.
  • 48. Otherwise road to ‘common’ hell