Richard Feeley presentation on ocean acidification
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Richard Feeley presentation on ocean acidification
- 1. OCEAN ACIDIFICATION The Other CO2 Problem Outline Overview ofocean acidification science Results of ocean acidification surveys What are the potential biological impacts? Where do we go from here? Richard A. Feely, Ph.D. NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission Workshop August 12, 2010
- 2. Atmospheric accumulation 234 Pg C (46%) Land-use change 160 Pg C (31%) Terrestrial sink 147 Pg C (29%) Fossil emission 348 Pg C (69%) Ocean sink 127 Pg C (25%) Cumulative carbon sources and sinks over the last two centuries SINKS SOURCES Ocean CO2 Chemistry Global Carbon Project (2008) Carbon Budget and trends 2007, www.globalcarbonproject.org, 26 September 2008
- 3. Rates of increase are important Ocean CO2 Chemistry atmospheric CO2 global temperature Hoegh-Guldberget al. 2007, Science
- 4. CO2 emissions (GtC/yr) Atmospheric CO2 concentration (ppm) IPCC TAR Emission Profiles from Pre-Industrial Levels Ocean CO2 Chemistry Turley (2006) Drivers for a change in energy policy
- 5. Saturation State [ ] [ ] + - 2 2 Ca CO 3 = W * K phase sp , phase Saturation State Ocean CO2 Chemistry W > = 1 precipitation calcium carbonate calcium carbonate W = = 1 equilibrium W < = 1 dissolution
- 6. Field Observations Ocean CO2 Chemistry WOCE/JGOFS/OACES Global CO2 Survey ~72,000 sample locations collected in the 1990s DIC ± 2 µmol kg-1 TA ± 4 µmol kg-1 Sabine et al. (2004)
- 7. Observed aragonite & calcite saturation depths Ocean CO2 Chemistry Feely et al. (2004) The aragonite saturation state migrates towards the surface at the rate of 1-2 m yr-1, depending on location.
- 8. pH distribution in surface waters from the NCAR CCSM3 model projections using the IPCC A2 CO2 Emission Scenarios Projections pH warm water corals deep water corals Feely, Doney and Cooley, Oceanography (2009)
- 9. Natural processes that could accelerate the ocean acidification of coastal waters Projections brings high CO2, low pH, low Ω, low O2 water to surface CoastalUpwelling
- 10. NACP West Coast Survey Cruise 11 May – 14 June 2007 Newport Aberdeen UCLA MBARI
- 11. Seasonal invasion of corrosive waters on west coast North America
- 12. NACP West Coast Survey Cruise 11 May – 14 June 2007 Vertical sections from Line 5 (Pt. St. George, California) .... sample locations Feely et al. (2008) The ‘ocean acidified’ corrosive water was upwelled from depths of 150-200 m onto the shelf and outcropped at the surface near the coast.
- 13. North American Carbon Program Continental carbon budgets, dynamics, processes & management surface 120m Aragonite saturation state in west coast waters
- 14. Summer 2008 transect: Coast to Hood Canal Lower pH and lower saturation states in subsurface waters of Hood Canal than along the Washington Coast Feely et al. (2010)
- 19. Food webs
- 20. Reduced:
- 21. Sound Absorption
- 22. Homing Ability
- 25. Significant shift in key nutrient and trace element speciation
- 26. Shift in phytoplankton diversity
- 27. Reduced growth, production and life span of adults, juveniles & larvae
- 28. Reduced tolerance to other environmental fluctuationsUncertainties great RESEARCH REQUIRED Changes to ecosystems & their services
- 29. Experiments on many scales Biosphere 2 (provided by Mark Eakin) Aquaria & small mesocosms SHARQ Submersible Habitat for Analyzing Reef Quality
- 30. Major planktoniccalcifers extant species mineralform generation time Coccolithophores ~ 200 calcite days algae Foraminifera ~ 30 weeks calcite protists Pteropods ~ 32 months to year? aragonite snails
- 31. Coccolithopores Single-cell algae manipulation of CO2 system by addition of HCl or NaOH pCO2 280-380 ppmv 780-850 ppmv Emiliania huxleyi Gephyrocapsa oceanica Calcification decreased - 45% - 9 to 18% Riebesell et al.(2000); Zondervan et al.(2001)
- 32. Formanifera single-celled protists -4 to -8% decline in calcification at pCO2= 560 ppm -6 to -14% decline in calcification at pCO2= 780 ppm Bijma et al. (2002) Shell mass is positively correlated with [CO32-]
- 33. Shelled pteropods planktonic snails Whole shell: Clio pyramidata Arag. rods exposed Prismatic layer (1 µm) peels back Respiratory CO2 forced ΩA <1 Shells of live animals start to dissolve within 48 hours Aperture (~7 µm): advanced dissolution Normal shell: nodissolution Orr et al. (2005)
- 34. Potential Economic Impacts 4 $4B primary commercial sales in 2007 fed a $70B industry, adding $35B to GNP Varying regional importance of fishery groups calls for local adaptation Total consequences could be far-reaching for ecosystems and marine-dependent societies 1.5 Uninfluenced Predators Crustaceans (crabs, etc) Bivalves (oysters, etc.) 3 1 Billions of U.S. $ 2 0.5 1 0 0 U.S. NewEngl. Mid-Atl. Gulf Pac. HI AK Cooley & Doney, 2009
- 35. Mussels & oysters Mytilusedulis& Crassostreagigas Decrease in calcification rates for the both species Significant with pCO2 increase and [CO32-] decrease At pCO2 740 ppmv: 25% decrease in calcification for mussels 10% decrease in calcification for oysters Gazeau et al., 2007
- 37. Dissolution causes mortality in estuaries & coastal habitatsCommon in soft bottom habitats
- 38. Potential food web impacts Coccolithophores ARCOD@ims.uaf.edu Copepods Barrie Kovish Pacific Salmon V. Fabry Vicki Fabry Pteropods
- 39. 15% 60% 63% Diet of juvenile salmon Pteropod Impacts of increasing pCO2 on nearly 100% of prey types are unknown Barrie Kovish Food web impacts Vicki Fabry Armstrong et al., 2005
- 40. Marine Fish impacts Barrie Kovish Vicki Fabry
- 41. Impacts Scorecard Response to increasing CO2 # species studied coccolithophores planktonicformanifera mollusks echinoderms tropical corals corraline red algae 4 2 1 1 1 2 2 - - - 4 4 - - - 2 2 - - - 11 11 - - - 1 1 - - - calcification coccolithophores prokaryotes seagrass 2 - 2 2 - 2 - 1 1 - 5 - 5 - - photo-synthesis nitrogen fixation 1 - 1 - - cyanobacteria Barrie Kovish 4 4 - - - 1 1 - - - Vicki Fabry repro-duction mollusks echinoderms Doneyet al., 2009
- 42. Winners & Losers Sea-grass shoot density epiphytic CaCO3 Differing pH levels in Mediterranean CO2 vents off Ischia Island (pH 8.17 to 6.57) Hall-Spencer et al. Nature (2008)
- 45. Commercial oyster hatchery failures threatens $100M industry (3000 Jobs)
- 46. Low pH “upwelled” waters a possible leading factor in failuresLarval oyster may be “canary in goldmine” for near-shore acidification?
- 47. Upwelling favorable winds Winds from S Coastal upwelling linked to high mortality events Higher salinity Lower salinity High mortality High survival High Ωarag Saturation (Ωarag) Low Ωarag Figure courtesy of Alan Barton
- 48. NOAA OA Research Implementation Plan Monitor trends Ecosystem responses Model changes & responses Develop adaptation strategies Conduct education and outreach
- 49. Importance of Moorings Preliminary results show a clear seasonal trend in pH and a strong correlation with pCO2 Note: pH scale is reversed 2007 – 1st OA mooring in Gulf of Alaska at Papa Station First ocean acidification mooring Gulf of Alaska at Station Papa - 2007 Collaboration and coordination across international, federal and state agencies is vital.
- 54. synergistic effects with other stress factors
- 55. physiological and micro-evolutionary adaptations
- 57. community to ecosystem responses
- 58. impacts on global climate change-Provided by Ulf Riebesell, 2006
- 59. Omnibus Land Management Act of 2009 2009 Introduced June & November 2007 Senate Bill passed House Billpassed Federal Ocean Acidification Research and Monitoring Acto of 2009 (H.R. 146) Presidentsigned
- 60. Since the beginning of the industrial age surface ocean pH (~0.1), carbonate ion concentrations (~16%), and aragonite and calcite saturation states (~16%) have been decreasing because of the uptake of anthropogenic CO2by the oceans, i.e., ocean acidification. By the end of this century pH could have a further decrease by as much as 0.3-0.4 pH units. Possible responses of ecosystems are speculative but could involve changes in species composition & abundances - could affect food webs, biogeochemical cycles. More research on impacts and vulnerabilities is needed. An observational network for ocean acidification is under development. Modeling studies need to be expanded into coastal regions. Physiological response, mitigation and adaptation studies need to be developed and integrated with the models. Conclusions
Hinweis der Redaktion
- Turley, C.M. (2006) Ocean acidification and its impacts. In: CONFRONTING CLIMATE CHANGE: CRITICAL ISSUES FOR NEW ZEALAND Edited by Ralph Chapman, Jonathan Boston and Margot Schwass, Published by Victoria University Press,125-133.
- Turley, C.M. (2006) Ocean acidification and its impacts. In: CONFRONTING CLIMATE CHANGE: CRITICAL ISSUES FOR NEW ZEALAND Edited by Ralph Chapman, Jonathan Boston and Margot Schwass, Published by Victoria University Press,125-133.
- Turley, C.M. (2006) Ocean acidification and its impacts. In: CONFRONTING CLIMATE CHANGE: CRITICAL ISSUES FOR NEW ZEALAND Edited by Ralph Chapman, Jonathan Boston and Margot Schwass, Published by Victoria University Press,125-133.
- Turley, C.M. (2006) Ocean acidification and its impacts. In: CONFRONTING CLIMATE CHANGE: CRITICAL ISSUES FOR NEW ZEALAND Edited by Ralph Chapman, Jonathan Boston and Margot Schwass, Published by Victoria University Press,125-133.
- Not an inclusive list- Questions of long-term impacts & adaptation difficult to address
- Evidence of corrosive water caused by the ocean’s absorption of carbon dioxide (CO2) was found less than 20 miles off of the west coast of North America during field study from Canada to Mexico this summer. This was the first time corrosive acidified ocean water has been identified on the continental shelf of western North America. We observed the most recent upwelling on lines 5 and 6 near the Oregon-California border. Coincident with the upwelled waters, we found evidence for corrosive low pH seawater in the bottom waters as depicted by Ωarag values < 1.0 and pH values < 7.75. The corrosive waters reached mid-shelf depths of approximately 40-120 m along lines 2-4, and 7-13, and reached nearly all the way to the coast on lines 5 and 6 (Figure 1). In the region of the strongest and most recent upwelling (line 5), the isolines of Ωarag = 1.0, DIC = 2190 and pH = 7.75 closely followed the 26.2 potential density surface. The movement of the corrosive water onto the continental shelf appears to happen from about February to August during the upwelling season, when winds bring CO2-rich water up from depths of about 400-600 feet (~120-180m). The water that upwells off of the North American Pacific coast has been away from the surface for approximately 50 years.
- Evidence of corrosive water caused by the ocean’s absorption of carbon dioxide (CO2) was found less than 20 miles off of the west coast of North America during field study from Canada to Mexico this summer. This was the first time corrosive acidified ocean water has been identified on the continental shelf of western North America. We observed the most recent upwelling on lines 5 and 6 near the Oregon-California border. Coincident with the upwelled waters, we found evidence for corrosive low pH seawater in the bottom waters as depicted by Ωarag values < 1.0 and pH values < 7.75. The corrosive waters reached mid-shelf depths of approximately 40-120 m along lines 2-4, and 7-13, and reached nearly all the way to the coast on lines 5 and 6 (Figure 1). In the region of the strongest and most recent upwelling (line 5), the isolines of Ωarag = 1.0, DIC = 2190 and pH = 7.75 closely followed the 26.2 potential density surface. The movement of the corrosive water onto the continental shelf appears to happen from about February to August during the upwelling season, when winds bring CO2-rich water up from depths of about 400-600 feet (~120-180m). The water that upwells off of the North American Pacific coast has been away from the surface for approximately 50 years.
- For those in the room that are new to this topic, this diagram illustrates how increases in atmospheric CO2 alter seawater chemistry. As CO2 is driven into the ocean, it quickly forms carbonic acid, which is a weak acid. Most of this rapidly dissociates to either HCO3- or CO3=. Alkalinity is the excess of positively charged ions in the seawater.This excess positive charge is balanced by the proportion of HCO3- to CO3=. If more negative charge is needed, then some of the HCO3- is converted to CO3=, and if less is needed, then some of the CO3= is converted to HCO3-. As a first approximation, the carbonate ion concentration can be estimated as the alkalinity - total CO2 concentration. In terms of how adding CO2 changes the equation, one can easily see that by adding CO2, the total CO2 increases (note that this does not alter the alkalinity), and hence the carbonate ion concentration will go down. Also shown in this picture are the processes of photosynthesis/respiration and calcification.Photosynthesis/respiration alters the total CO2 concentration, which calcification alters BOTH the total CO2 concentration and the alkalinityFeely/Gledhill talk
- The 3 major gps of…..Relative abundance of each group varies by region;These 3 gps are diverse with respect to mineralogy, trophic level and other attributesFor eg, Pteropods & forams are heterotrophs; coccosautotrophs; Pteropods secrete aragonite which is about 50% more soluble in seawater than the calcite formed by forams and coccos---Generation times are particularly impt when considering the capacity of these gps to adapt to the future high CO2 ocean – Coccos have generation times on the order of days….
- A landmark study of Riebesell et al and related work by Zondervan et al, measured the response of 2 coccospp - E hux…..These workers manipulated the CO2 system by… [Click] Measured a Decrease in calcification – G. oceanic more sensitive to elevated pCO2; Documented malformed coccoliths in both spp.
- 2 spp of forams have been investigated by Dr. JelleBijma and co-workers. In both, shell mass was positively correlated with [CO3] Shell mass decreased by 4 to 8% at 2x CO2 (560 ppm) and by 6 to 14% at 3xCO2 (740 ppm)No studies have directly measured foram calcification rates as a function of pCO2.
- Turning to shelled pteropods – we have even less information on these aragonite-producing zooplankton.Orr et al. report qualitative changes in the shells of live pteropods when they were exposed to undersaturated conditions for 48 hours. SEM examination of shells show that shell dissolution begins near the shell aperature with the formation of etch pits and exposure of the aragonitic rods at the growing edge. SEM examination of shells shows that shell dissolution begins near the shell aperature with the formation of etch pits and exposure of the aragonitic rods at the growing edge. [go through panels]Orr et al. report qualitative changes in the shells of live pteropods when they were exposed to undersaturated conditions for 48 hours.
- Revenues from National Marine Fisheries Service data partitioned by species into large groups. The yellow and red tones represent fisheries that are directly susceptible to acidification because they make shells and skeletons out of calcium carbonate. Some groups in green (fin-fish) may experience indirect foodweb effects (there may be direct effects on fish larvae but they are currently ill-defined). Primary commercial sales are ex-vessel values, or the amount paid to fishermen by wholesalers and processors. Primary revenue is amplified greatly (factor of ~10x to 20x) in overall industry fisheries support.Bivalves: clams, scallops, mussels, oysters •Valuable commercial fisheries• Mussels & oysters: ecosystem engineers Echinoderms: sea urchins, sea stars, sea cucumbers• Commercial fisheries: sea urchins & sea cukes• Sea stars: keystone speciesCrustaceans: shrimp, crabs, lobsters, copepods• Valuable commercial fisheries• Copepods: central role in marine food webs
- Mylitusedulis; common blue mussel ; oyster Crassostreagigas is the most cultivated species in the worldDifference in calcification response - may be related to shell mineralogy – oyster shells are calcite but mussel shells are a mixture of calcite and aragonite – aragonite can be as high as 80%
- What about the juvenile stages of molluscs?Strong evidence comes from the work of Mark Green. He looked at hard shell clam – Mercenariamercenaria – aragonite shell. Introduced these juv clams to sediments that were undersaturated w/respect to aragonite - at levels are typical of estuarine surface sedmts Shell gone w/in 2 wks – leaving only the protein matrix Dissolution is an impt source of mortality for newly settled clams
- As an example of food web impacts – let’s consider juv salmon. Armstrong et al. conducted a 3-year study on the feeding habits of juvenile pink salmon in the Gulf of Alaska & Prince William Sound.PteropodLimacinahelicina can be important prey of Juvenile Pink SalmonIf pteropod populations decline in the future, would juv pink salmon be affected? Likely switch to different prey types…BUT..how will those prey will fare in a high CO2 world? We don’t know.
- The 3 major gps of…..Relative abundance of each group varies by region;These 3 gps are diverse with respect to mineralogy, trophic level and other attributesFor eg, Pteropods & forams are heterotrophs; coccosautotrophs; Pteropods secrete aragonite which is about 50% more soluble in seawater than the calcite formed by forams and coccos---Generation times are particularly impt when considering the capacity of these gps to adapt to the future high CO2 ocean – Coccos have generation times on the order of days….
- http://www.visit.willapabay.org/graphics/north-co-grn..gif
- Message: We are pleased that we are getting a great deal of support for the program. The Implementation Plan is taking shape. (Draft 3 is dated August 14/from Dick Feely). The overarching goal of the NOAA Ocean Acidification Research Program is to monitor trends in ocean acidification, to predict how ecosystems will respond to ocean acidification, and to provide information that managers can use to address issues related to ocean acidification.NOAA’s approach to addressing the overarching goal:Monitoring of temporal and spatial trends – Accomplished through ship-based and moored observations of key physical, chemical and biological parameters. Ecosystem responses – Will use same platforms as monitoring, but will also require laboratory physiological response experiments. Modeling studies - Purpose is to delineate large-scale changes in ocean water chemistry and ecosystem responses.Utility of research - Findings will be used to develop adaptation strategies in response to ocean acidification. Primary goals (6 themes) of this research are to: (Source: Aug. 14, 2009 draft of NOAA OA Implementation Plan)Develop the monitoring capacity to quantify and track ocean acidification and its impacts in open-ocean and coastal systems (Theme 1) – e.g. VOS & repeat hydrography, technology developmentAssess the response of marine organisms to ocean acidification (Theme 2) – lab & field studies, marine phytoplankton, higher tropic levelsForecast biogeochemical and ecological responses to ocean acidification (Theme 3) Develop management strategies for responding and adapting to the consequences of ocean acidification from a human dimensions perspective (Theme 4) Provide a synthesis of ocean acidification data and information (Theme 5) Provide an engagement strategy for educational and public outreach (Theme 6)Segue: Ecosystem study prioritiesPhoto credits, top to bottom: Monitoring – An underwater CO2 sampling system attached to one of NOAA's Integrated Coral Observing Systems (ICON) in the Bahamas, MAPCO2 deployment off Puerto Rico; Ecosystems – coral, teacher at sea measuring coral; Modeling – Science On a Sphere ocean acidification with coral reefs; Adaptation Strategies - Klamath Basin stakeholders meeting; Eduction/Outreach - Students at the UCAP school in Providence, RI talk by satellite phone with NOAA scientist and former UCAP employee Catalina Martinez, who is in a submersible more than 8,000 ft deep in the Gulf of Alaska.
- Message: Monitoring pays off – yield valuable data new science/seasonal trends in CO2/pH & collaboration/coordination across int’l, fed, and state agencies is essential for the best monitoring efforts.BUILD Opens with Papa buoy and mapONE CLICK to bring up data
- BUILDOpens with U.S. Capilot image + “Introduced June & Nov 2007”CLICK: Adds calendar + Omnibus…+ FOARAMCLICK AGAIN: Adds dates in chronological sequence automaticallyStatus of S.1581 Title: A bill to establish an interagency committee to develop an ocean acidification research and monitoring plan and to establish an ocean acidification program within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Sponsor: Sen Lautenberg, Frank R. [NJ] (introduced 6/7/2007) Cosponsors (5) Related Bills: H.R.4174 Latest Major Action: 6/7/2007 Referred to Senate committee. Status: Read twice and referred to the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. Today, Tuesday, December 4th, the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee (Chair Inouye, D-HI) is scheduled to mark up this bill as well as three other climate bills (S. 2355. S. 2307, and S. 1581) which would impact NOAA. I am waiting to hear back from Adrienne what happened at the mark up. Status of H.R.4174 Title: To establish an interagency committee to develop an ocean acidification research and monitoring plan and to establish an ocean acidification program within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Sponsor: Rep Allen, Thomas H. [ME-1] (introduced 11/14/2007) Cosponsors (12) Latest Major Action: 11/14/2007 Referred to House committee on Science and Technology. This bill may move through the Senate this year or next. However, it may have some trouble making it through the House since the House Resources Committee may have some jurisdictional battles with the House Science Committee. Plus, next year Congress will be focused on campaigning and not getting a whole lot of bills passed. Just making sure you don't give folks the impression that Congress will pass an ocean acidification soon. If it happens, it may not be for a couple more years...
- While the changes in CO2 chemistry of seawater due to anthropogenic CO2 are well understood and predictable, the Impacts of ocean acidification on biota are largely unknown…..Baseline data with suffcient temporal and spatial resolution are lacking in regions which are projected to become undersaturated with respect to CaCO3 – particularly aragonite – over next 50-100 yrs