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EU Climate Change
Policy
Jos Delbeke
Director General
DG Climate Action
European Commission
Climate Action Conference, 26.10.2010
EU Environmental Policy:
a new policy field
• 1986/87: Single European Act:
• Co-decision Council and EU Parliament
• QMV (Qualified Majority Voting)
• Today:
• Comprehensive set of EU legislation covering air,
water, nature, waste
• Why European level?
• Common problems
• Pollution does not respect borders
• Internal market (product standards and
competitiveness issues)
Sustainability Imperative
• POPULATION: today 6 billion, 9 billion until 2050
• ENERGY: IEA: 2030 – 40% increase in energy demand
(3/4 fossil fuels)
2050 > 1000 ppm GHG concentration
• WATER: OECD: 2030 – 4 bn people in water stress
• FOOD: doubling of production in next 40 years
• CITIES: UN: more than half population in cities
2050: 80% population in cities
• TRANSPORT: 2050: 3 bn vehicles (850 m today)
Climate change: Science
reveals serious problem
CO2 today
CO2 last
600.000 yrs
CO2 in 2050
(BAU)
Temp. last
600.000 yrs
Kilimanjaro then and now
1912 2000
EU global vision: global peak
by 2020 and deep cuts
by 2050
Climate change is a global
problem… EU alone cannot
stop it!
% of global CO2
emissions
EU 14%
USA 20%
Japan 4%
China 20%
India 4.5%
Brazil 3.5%
EU emission reduction
objectives for Copenhagen
(COP15)
• For 2020:
• industrialized countries: 25-40% reductions
• developing countries: 15-30% below BAU
(business as usual forecasts)
• For 2050:
50-85% reductions globally
Comparability of efforts: income, efficiency,
population trends, past efforts
Kyoto commitments:
The EU is delivering
• EU-15 target for 2008-2012: - 8%
• EU-15 - 1990-2008:
 GHG emissions: - 6.5%
 GDP growth: +45%
• EU-27 - 1990-2008:
 GHG emissions: -11%
 GDP growth: +46%
Kyoto commitments:
The EU is delivering
Actual and projected emissions for EU-15
3.600
3.800
4.000
4.200
4.400
4.600
4.800
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
MtCO2eq.
EU-15 emissions Kyoto mechanisms use by governments
EU-15 existing measures Carbon sinks
EU-15 Kyoto target Allowance and credit acquisition by EU ETS sectors
Business as usual EU-15 additional measures
Kyoto commitments:
The EU is delivering
Energy Supply
Energy Use
Transport
Industrial Processes
Agriculture
Waste
Solvents & Other
Past change in GHG
emissions, 1990-2007
1%
-15%
24%
-11%
-11%
-39%
-24%
-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
EU decides to reduce CO2
emissions in 2020 by 20%
Greenhouse Gas Emissions:
• today: -6.5%(compared to 1990/including
aviation)
• to do: 14% (compared to 2005)
Renewable Energy:
• today: 8.5% (mainly through large scale hydro
and conventional biomass)
• to do: 11.5%
Cost-effectiveness: market based-instruments
(EU ETS) across EU
Fairness: differentiate efforts among Member
States according to GDP/capita
• national targets in sectors outside EU ETS
• national renewables targets (partially – half)
• redistribution of auctioning rights (partially – 10%, -2%)
EU strategy:
cost-effectiveness and
fairness
EU ETS as of 1.1.2005
• Emitting CO2 has a price (becomes a cost): incentive to
use cleaner technology
• Some 10,000 installations in power and industry face
quantitative limits to CO2 emissions (allowances)
• Covers ±45% of EU emissions
• Overall cap:
• 2005: 2.3 bn tonnes
• 2008: 2.08 bn tonnes
• 2020: 1.72 bn tonnes
- 21% compared to 2005
-20%
2083 Mt/yr
Gradient: -1.74%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
EU ETS: a predictable EU-wide
cap beyond 2020 (gradual
steps)
Starting point:
1974 Mt in 2013
1720 Mt
•Linear factor to be reviewed by 2025
•Aviation to be included; will change figures correspondingly, but cap not reduced
•Disclaimer: all figures are provisional and do not account for new sectors in third period
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan-07
Mar-07
May-07
Jul-07
Sep-07
Nov-07
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
EUAprices€/t
Source: Point Carbon
EU ETS:
price development
EU ETS:
Harmonised Allocation Rules
• Fully harmonised allocation rules
• Auctioning is default allocation method –
for power sector
• Free allocation (partial or full) on basis of
ex-ante benchmark (10% best) for energy-
intensive manufacturing sectors
EU ETS: International offsets
• Certainty and predictability: credits to be used up to
2020
• Quantity restriction (supplementarity: 50% of
reduction effort):
• minimum 11% of NAP2 allocation
• corresponding to roughly 6% of phase 2 and 3 caps
• resulting in 1.6 to 1.7 Bt over 2008-20
• Quality: comitology (harmonised approach) to
ensure that credits represent real emission
reductions
• no nuclear and forestry allowed
EU ETS: Aviation included
as from 2012
• Cap:
• 2012: 97% of 2004-06 emissions
• From 2013 onwards: 95%
• Auctioning: 15% as from 2012
• Scope: internal, outbound and inbound
aviation
• A third country can take equivalent
measures
Incentivising CCS and
RES projects
• Carbon price is main incentive for CCS/RES
• In addition, up to 300 million allowances
available until end 2015 for CCS and innovative
renewable energy technology demonstration
projects (± 4/5 bn €)
• Projects selected on the basis of objective and
transparent criteria, ensuring geographical
balance
• Operators receive support only after
demonstrated performance
Renewable Energy
Directive
• Sets mandatory targets per MS for renewable energy
shares in 2020
- 2009: 8,5% of EU’s energy consumption renewable
- 2020: 20%
• Reduction of administrative barriers, regulatory
stability, and improved access to the electricity grid
• Creates a sustainability regime for biofuels
 By 2020 every kwh of power out of 3 produced will be
from renewable origin
49%
13%
16%
13%
30%
18%
25%
16%
18%
20%
23%
17%
13%
42%
23%
11%
13%
14%
34%
15%
31%
24%
25%
14%
38%
15%
10%
RES share in 2020
BE
BG
CZ
DK
DE
EE
IE
EL
ES
FR
IT
CY
LV
LT
LU
HU
MT
NL
AT
PL
PT
RO
SI
SK
FI
SE
UK
Renewable Energy Directive:
MS targets
CO2 from cars
• Reduction of CO2 from new passenger cars (fleet-
wide average):
2015: 130 g/km (48mpg)
2020: 95 g/km (65mpg)
2009: 146g/km (1995: 186g/km)
• Taxation of motor fuels: a major driver towards
energy-efficient cars (± 50% of price at pump)
• Importance of scrappage schemes and CO2
modulation of registration taxes
• Being extended to light duty vehicles (VANs)
CO2 from cars
Fuel Quality Directive
• 6% reduction by 2020 of life cycle green
house gas emissions per unit of energy
from fuel and energy
• saves 60 million tonnes CO2eq by 2020
• How?
• substitution of fossil fuels by other fuels such as
sustainable biofuels (~50% of the target)
• LPG and CNG (~5% of the target)
• electric cars (~10% of the target)
• reducing upstream emissions in and outside of
the EU (could be 50% or more of the target)
EU F-gas Regulations
• F-Gas Regulation & MAC
Directive adopted in 2006
• Promoting both containment and
innovative low GWP substitutes
• Driving global innovation
• Draft estimates indicate
• Expected to deliver GHG
reductions (vs. BAU) of 30 Mt
CO2-eq pa by 2020 and 70 Mt
CO2-eq pa by 2050
• EU F-Gas emissions still
growing but at much lower rates
• Regulation subject to review
in 2011
Expected EU F-Gas emissions with
current measures compared to the
counter-factual scenario (draft
estimates)
The Effort Sharing Decision
• Covers ±55% of EU emissions
• "small emitters", not covered by EU ETS
• A diverse set of sectors: transport, heating
in buildings, services & SME’s, agriculture
(N20, CH4), waste (CH4), HFC’s
• Major differences in cost-effective emission
reduction potential (eg. high for some non
CO2 emissions and buildings, low in
transport)
• National, regional and local action very
important
28
A "Conditional"
target of 30%
• Other developed countries commit to comparable
reductions in line with IPCC range of -25% to -40%
• Developing countries contribute adequately
according to their responsibilities and respective
capabilities (on average between -15% to -30%
compared to baseline)
• An agreement that is international, comprehensive
and ensures environmental integrity
• EU is ready to act, but at present, conditions are
not met
Cost of -20%/30% revisited
Cost of 20-30% revisited
• Costs of -20% lower due to:
- economic recession
- higher energy prices
- higher energy efficiency
(new baseline for 2020 includes ETS, CO2 from cars,
eco-design measures)
• Carbon price lower, weaker incentive for
innovation:
- now: 13-15 €
- 2020: less than 20 € (unused allowances)
• Costs of -30% remain substantial:
- ETS: target from -21% to -34%
- Effort Sharing: target from -10% to -16%
Towards Cancun
• EU has an offer on the table for 2020
• Independent reduction -20%
• Ready to accept 30% as part of a global
• Agreement (comparable effort by others)
• EU recognises need for developing countries:
• Through carbon market (CDM)
• Bilateral and multilateral public support
• R&D
• For adaptation and mitigation
• Performance based financial support
• Moving towards a global carbon market 2015/2020
(New-Zealand, Australia, China, Korea, Japan)
Jos Delbeke - EU Climate Change Policy

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Jos Delbeke - EU Climate Change Policy

  • 1. EU Climate Change Policy Jos Delbeke Director General DG Climate Action European Commission Climate Action Conference, 26.10.2010
  • 2. EU Environmental Policy: a new policy field • 1986/87: Single European Act: • Co-decision Council and EU Parliament • QMV (Qualified Majority Voting) • Today: • Comprehensive set of EU legislation covering air, water, nature, waste • Why European level? • Common problems • Pollution does not respect borders • Internal market (product standards and competitiveness issues)
  • 3. Sustainability Imperative • POPULATION: today 6 billion, 9 billion until 2050 • ENERGY: IEA: 2030 – 40% increase in energy demand (3/4 fossil fuels) 2050 > 1000 ppm GHG concentration • WATER: OECD: 2030 – 4 bn people in water stress • FOOD: doubling of production in next 40 years • CITIES: UN: more than half population in cities 2050: 80% population in cities • TRANSPORT: 2050: 3 bn vehicles (850 m today)
  • 4. Climate change: Science reveals serious problem CO2 today CO2 last 600.000 yrs CO2 in 2050 (BAU) Temp. last 600.000 yrs
  • 5. Kilimanjaro then and now 1912 2000
  • 6. EU global vision: global peak by 2020 and deep cuts by 2050
  • 7. Climate change is a global problem… EU alone cannot stop it! % of global CO2 emissions EU 14% USA 20% Japan 4% China 20% India 4.5% Brazil 3.5%
  • 8. EU emission reduction objectives for Copenhagen (COP15) • For 2020: • industrialized countries: 25-40% reductions • developing countries: 15-30% below BAU (business as usual forecasts) • For 2050: 50-85% reductions globally Comparability of efforts: income, efficiency, population trends, past efforts
  • 9. Kyoto commitments: The EU is delivering • EU-15 target for 2008-2012: - 8% • EU-15 - 1990-2008:  GHG emissions: - 6.5%  GDP growth: +45% • EU-27 - 1990-2008:  GHG emissions: -11%  GDP growth: +46%
  • 10. Kyoto commitments: The EU is delivering Actual and projected emissions for EU-15 3.600 3.800 4.000 4.200 4.400 4.600 4.800 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 MtCO2eq. EU-15 emissions Kyoto mechanisms use by governments EU-15 existing measures Carbon sinks EU-15 Kyoto target Allowance and credit acquisition by EU ETS sectors Business as usual EU-15 additional measures
  • 11. Kyoto commitments: The EU is delivering Energy Supply Energy Use Transport Industrial Processes Agriculture Waste Solvents & Other Past change in GHG emissions, 1990-2007 1% -15% 24% -11% -11% -39% -24% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
  • 12. EU decides to reduce CO2 emissions in 2020 by 20% Greenhouse Gas Emissions: • today: -6.5%(compared to 1990/including aviation) • to do: 14% (compared to 2005) Renewable Energy: • today: 8.5% (mainly through large scale hydro and conventional biomass) • to do: 11.5%
  • 13. Cost-effectiveness: market based-instruments (EU ETS) across EU Fairness: differentiate efforts among Member States according to GDP/capita • national targets in sectors outside EU ETS • national renewables targets (partially – half) • redistribution of auctioning rights (partially – 10%, -2%) EU strategy: cost-effectiveness and fairness
  • 14. EU ETS as of 1.1.2005 • Emitting CO2 has a price (becomes a cost): incentive to use cleaner technology • Some 10,000 installations in power and industry face quantitative limits to CO2 emissions (allowances) • Covers ±45% of EU emissions • Overall cap: • 2005: 2.3 bn tonnes • 2008: 2.08 bn tonnes • 2020: 1.72 bn tonnes - 21% compared to 2005
  • 15. -20% 2083 Mt/yr Gradient: -1.74% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 EU ETS: a predictable EU-wide cap beyond 2020 (gradual steps) Starting point: 1974 Mt in 2013 1720 Mt •Linear factor to be reviewed by 2025 •Aviation to be included; will change figures correspondingly, but cap not reduced •Disclaimer: all figures are provisional and do not account for new sectors in third period
  • 17. EU ETS: Harmonised Allocation Rules • Fully harmonised allocation rules • Auctioning is default allocation method – for power sector • Free allocation (partial or full) on basis of ex-ante benchmark (10% best) for energy- intensive manufacturing sectors
  • 18. EU ETS: International offsets • Certainty and predictability: credits to be used up to 2020 • Quantity restriction (supplementarity: 50% of reduction effort): • minimum 11% of NAP2 allocation • corresponding to roughly 6% of phase 2 and 3 caps • resulting in 1.6 to 1.7 Bt over 2008-20 • Quality: comitology (harmonised approach) to ensure that credits represent real emission reductions • no nuclear and forestry allowed
  • 19. EU ETS: Aviation included as from 2012 • Cap: • 2012: 97% of 2004-06 emissions • From 2013 onwards: 95% • Auctioning: 15% as from 2012 • Scope: internal, outbound and inbound aviation • A third country can take equivalent measures
  • 20. Incentivising CCS and RES projects • Carbon price is main incentive for CCS/RES • In addition, up to 300 million allowances available until end 2015 for CCS and innovative renewable energy technology demonstration projects (± 4/5 bn €) • Projects selected on the basis of objective and transparent criteria, ensuring geographical balance • Operators receive support only after demonstrated performance
  • 21. Renewable Energy Directive • Sets mandatory targets per MS for renewable energy shares in 2020 - 2009: 8,5% of EU’s energy consumption renewable - 2020: 20% • Reduction of administrative barriers, regulatory stability, and improved access to the electricity grid • Creates a sustainability regime for biofuels  By 2020 every kwh of power out of 3 produced will be from renewable origin
  • 22. 49% 13% 16% 13% 30% 18% 25% 16% 18% 20% 23% 17% 13% 42% 23% 11% 13% 14% 34% 15% 31% 24% 25% 14% 38% 15% 10% RES share in 2020 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK Renewable Energy Directive: MS targets
  • 23. CO2 from cars • Reduction of CO2 from new passenger cars (fleet- wide average): 2015: 130 g/km (48mpg) 2020: 95 g/km (65mpg) 2009: 146g/km (1995: 186g/km) • Taxation of motor fuels: a major driver towards energy-efficient cars (± 50% of price at pump) • Importance of scrappage schemes and CO2 modulation of registration taxes • Being extended to light duty vehicles (VANs)
  • 25. Fuel Quality Directive • 6% reduction by 2020 of life cycle green house gas emissions per unit of energy from fuel and energy • saves 60 million tonnes CO2eq by 2020 • How? • substitution of fossil fuels by other fuels such as sustainable biofuels (~50% of the target) • LPG and CNG (~5% of the target) • electric cars (~10% of the target) • reducing upstream emissions in and outside of the EU (could be 50% or more of the target)
  • 26. EU F-gas Regulations • F-Gas Regulation & MAC Directive adopted in 2006 • Promoting both containment and innovative low GWP substitutes • Driving global innovation • Draft estimates indicate • Expected to deliver GHG reductions (vs. BAU) of 30 Mt CO2-eq pa by 2020 and 70 Mt CO2-eq pa by 2050 • EU F-Gas emissions still growing but at much lower rates • Regulation subject to review in 2011 Expected EU F-Gas emissions with current measures compared to the counter-factual scenario (draft estimates)
  • 27. The Effort Sharing Decision • Covers ±55% of EU emissions • "small emitters", not covered by EU ETS • A diverse set of sectors: transport, heating in buildings, services & SME’s, agriculture (N20, CH4), waste (CH4), HFC’s • Major differences in cost-effective emission reduction potential (eg. high for some non CO2 emissions and buildings, low in transport) • National, regional and local action very important
  • 28. 28 A "Conditional" target of 30% • Other developed countries commit to comparable reductions in line with IPCC range of -25% to -40% • Developing countries contribute adequately according to their responsibilities and respective capabilities (on average between -15% to -30% compared to baseline) • An agreement that is international, comprehensive and ensures environmental integrity • EU is ready to act, but at present, conditions are not met
  • 29. Cost of -20%/30% revisited
  • 30. Cost of 20-30% revisited • Costs of -20% lower due to: - economic recession - higher energy prices - higher energy efficiency (new baseline for 2020 includes ETS, CO2 from cars, eco-design measures) • Carbon price lower, weaker incentive for innovation: - now: 13-15 € - 2020: less than 20 € (unused allowances) • Costs of -30% remain substantial: - ETS: target from -21% to -34% - Effort Sharing: target from -10% to -16%
  • 31. Towards Cancun • EU has an offer on the table for 2020 • Independent reduction -20% • Ready to accept 30% as part of a global • Agreement (comparable effort by others) • EU recognises need for developing countries: • Through carbon market (CDM) • Bilateral and multilateral public support • R&D • For adaptation and mitigation • Performance based financial support • Moving towards a global carbon market 2015/2020 (New-Zealand, Australia, China, Korea, Japan)

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. “Winning the Battle” & Stern Review: benefits of limiting Climate Change outweigh costs of action Costs of inaction: 5-20% of global GDP (Stern Review) Costs of global action (2030): Investment costs: 0.5% of global GDP / year Reduce global GDP growth by 0.19% / year (Expected global GDP growth of 2.8% / year) Co-benefits: Increased energy security Improved competitiveness through innovation Health benefits from reduced air pollution
  2. Data from IEA 2007