Jos Delbeke's presentation at the Climate Action Conference in Brussels, 25-27 October 2010
Topic: An overview of the EU domestic action to combat climate change
Court Denies Rust Request for an Injunction to stay on the ballot
Jos Delbeke - EU Climate Change Policy
1. EU Climate Change
Policy
Jos Delbeke
Director General
DG Climate Action
European Commission
Climate Action Conference, 26.10.2010
2. EU Environmental Policy:
a new policy field
• 1986/87: Single European Act:
• Co-decision Council and EU Parliament
• QMV (Qualified Majority Voting)
• Today:
• Comprehensive set of EU legislation covering air,
water, nature, waste
• Why European level?
• Common problems
• Pollution does not respect borders
• Internal market (product standards and
competitiveness issues)
3. Sustainability Imperative
• POPULATION: today 6 billion, 9 billion until 2050
• ENERGY: IEA: 2030 – 40% increase in energy demand
(3/4 fossil fuels)
2050 > 1000 ppm GHG concentration
• WATER: OECD: 2030 – 4 bn people in water stress
• FOOD: doubling of production in next 40 years
• CITIES: UN: more than half population in cities
2050: 80% population in cities
• TRANSPORT: 2050: 3 bn vehicles (850 m today)
7. Climate change is a global
problem… EU alone cannot
stop it!
% of global CO2
emissions
EU 14%
USA 20%
Japan 4%
China 20%
India 4.5%
Brazil 3.5%
8. EU emission reduction
objectives for Copenhagen
(COP15)
• For 2020:
• industrialized countries: 25-40% reductions
• developing countries: 15-30% below BAU
(business as usual forecasts)
• For 2050:
50-85% reductions globally
Comparability of efforts: income, efficiency,
population trends, past efforts
9. Kyoto commitments:
The EU is delivering
• EU-15 target for 2008-2012: - 8%
• EU-15 - 1990-2008:
GHG emissions: - 6.5%
GDP growth: +45%
• EU-27 - 1990-2008:
GHG emissions: -11%
GDP growth: +46%
10. Kyoto commitments:
The EU is delivering
Actual and projected emissions for EU-15
3.600
3.800
4.000
4.200
4.400
4.600
4.800
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
MtCO2eq.
EU-15 emissions Kyoto mechanisms use by governments
EU-15 existing measures Carbon sinks
EU-15 Kyoto target Allowance and credit acquisition by EU ETS sectors
Business as usual EU-15 additional measures
11. Kyoto commitments:
The EU is delivering
Energy Supply
Energy Use
Transport
Industrial Processes
Agriculture
Waste
Solvents & Other
Past change in GHG
emissions, 1990-2007
1%
-15%
24%
-11%
-11%
-39%
-24%
-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
12. EU decides to reduce CO2
emissions in 2020 by 20%
Greenhouse Gas Emissions:
• today: -6.5%(compared to 1990/including
aviation)
• to do: 14% (compared to 2005)
Renewable Energy:
• today: 8.5% (mainly through large scale hydro
and conventional biomass)
• to do: 11.5%
13. Cost-effectiveness: market based-instruments
(EU ETS) across EU
Fairness: differentiate efforts among Member
States according to GDP/capita
• national targets in sectors outside EU ETS
• national renewables targets (partially – half)
• redistribution of auctioning rights (partially – 10%, -2%)
EU strategy:
cost-effectiveness and
fairness
14. EU ETS as of 1.1.2005
• Emitting CO2 has a price (becomes a cost): incentive to
use cleaner technology
• Some 10,000 installations in power and industry face
quantitative limits to CO2 emissions (allowances)
• Covers ±45% of EU emissions
• Overall cap:
• 2005: 2.3 bn tonnes
• 2008: 2.08 bn tonnes
• 2020: 1.72 bn tonnes
- 21% compared to 2005
15. -20%
2083 Mt/yr
Gradient: -1.74%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
EU ETS: a predictable EU-wide
cap beyond 2020 (gradual
steps)
Starting point:
1974 Mt in 2013
1720 Mt
•Linear factor to be reviewed by 2025
•Aviation to be included; will change figures correspondingly, but cap not reduced
•Disclaimer: all figures are provisional and do not account for new sectors in third period
17. EU ETS:
Harmonised Allocation Rules
• Fully harmonised allocation rules
• Auctioning is default allocation method –
for power sector
• Free allocation (partial or full) on basis of
ex-ante benchmark (10% best) for energy-
intensive manufacturing sectors
18. EU ETS: International offsets
• Certainty and predictability: credits to be used up to
2020
• Quantity restriction (supplementarity: 50% of
reduction effort):
• minimum 11% of NAP2 allocation
• corresponding to roughly 6% of phase 2 and 3 caps
• resulting in 1.6 to 1.7 Bt over 2008-20
• Quality: comitology (harmonised approach) to
ensure that credits represent real emission
reductions
• no nuclear and forestry allowed
19. EU ETS: Aviation included
as from 2012
• Cap:
• 2012: 97% of 2004-06 emissions
• From 2013 onwards: 95%
• Auctioning: 15% as from 2012
• Scope: internal, outbound and inbound
aviation
• A third country can take equivalent
measures
20. Incentivising CCS and
RES projects
• Carbon price is main incentive for CCS/RES
• In addition, up to 300 million allowances
available until end 2015 for CCS and innovative
renewable energy technology demonstration
projects (± 4/5 bn €)
• Projects selected on the basis of objective and
transparent criteria, ensuring geographical
balance
• Operators receive support only after
demonstrated performance
21. Renewable Energy
Directive
• Sets mandatory targets per MS for renewable energy
shares in 2020
- 2009: 8,5% of EU’s energy consumption renewable
- 2020: 20%
• Reduction of administrative barriers, regulatory
stability, and improved access to the electricity grid
• Creates a sustainability regime for biofuels
By 2020 every kwh of power out of 3 produced will be
from renewable origin
23. CO2 from cars
• Reduction of CO2 from new passenger cars (fleet-
wide average):
2015: 130 g/km (48mpg)
2020: 95 g/km (65mpg)
2009: 146g/km (1995: 186g/km)
• Taxation of motor fuels: a major driver towards
energy-efficient cars (± 50% of price at pump)
• Importance of scrappage schemes and CO2
modulation of registration taxes
• Being extended to light duty vehicles (VANs)
25. Fuel Quality Directive
• 6% reduction by 2020 of life cycle green
house gas emissions per unit of energy
from fuel and energy
• saves 60 million tonnes CO2eq by 2020
• How?
• substitution of fossil fuels by other fuels such as
sustainable biofuels (~50% of the target)
• LPG and CNG (~5% of the target)
• electric cars (~10% of the target)
• reducing upstream emissions in and outside of
the EU (could be 50% or more of the target)
26. EU F-gas Regulations
• F-Gas Regulation & MAC
Directive adopted in 2006
• Promoting both containment and
innovative low GWP substitutes
• Driving global innovation
• Draft estimates indicate
• Expected to deliver GHG
reductions (vs. BAU) of 30 Mt
CO2-eq pa by 2020 and 70 Mt
CO2-eq pa by 2050
• EU F-Gas emissions still
growing but at much lower rates
• Regulation subject to review
in 2011
Expected EU F-Gas emissions with
current measures compared to the
counter-factual scenario (draft
estimates)
27. The Effort Sharing Decision
• Covers ±55% of EU emissions
• "small emitters", not covered by EU ETS
• A diverse set of sectors: transport, heating
in buildings, services & SME’s, agriculture
(N20, CH4), waste (CH4), HFC’s
• Major differences in cost-effective emission
reduction potential (eg. high for some non
CO2 emissions and buildings, low in
transport)
• National, regional and local action very
important
28. 28
A "Conditional"
target of 30%
• Other developed countries commit to comparable
reductions in line with IPCC range of -25% to -40%
• Developing countries contribute adequately
according to their responsibilities and respective
capabilities (on average between -15% to -30%
compared to baseline)
• An agreement that is international, comprehensive
and ensures environmental integrity
• EU is ready to act, but at present, conditions are
not met
30. Cost of 20-30% revisited
• Costs of -20% lower due to:
- economic recession
- higher energy prices
- higher energy efficiency
(new baseline for 2020 includes ETS, CO2 from cars,
eco-design measures)
• Carbon price lower, weaker incentive for
innovation:
- now: 13-15 €
- 2020: less than 20 € (unused allowances)
• Costs of -30% remain substantial:
- ETS: target from -21% to -34%
- Effort Sharing: target from -10% to -16%
31. Towards Cancun
• EU has an offer on the table for 2020
• Independent reduction -20%
• Ready to accept 30% as part of a global
• Agreement (comparable effort by others)
• EU recognises need for developing countries:
• Through carbon market (CDM)
• Bilateral and multilateral public support
• R&D
• For adaptation and mitigation
• Performance based financial support
• Moving towards a global carbon market 2015/2020
(New-Zealand, Australia, China, Korea, Japan)
Hinweis der Redaktion
“Winning the Battle” & Stern Review: benefits of limiting Climate Change outweigh costs of action
Costs of inaction: 5-20% of global GDP (Stern Review)
Costs of global action (2030):
Investment costs: 0.5% of global GDP / year
Reduce global GDP growth by 0.19% / year
(Expected global GDP growth of 2.8% / year)
Co-benefits:
Increased energy security
Improved competitiveness through innovation
Health benefits from reduced air pollution