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eMarketer Webinar: US Retail Ecommerce Outlook—What’s Driving Growth?


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eMarketer Webinar: US Retail Ecommerce Outlook—What’s Driving Growth?

  1. 1. A P R I L 1 8, 2 0 1 3 US Retail Ecommerce Outlook—What’s Driving Growth? Sponsored by: Jeffrey Grau Principal Analyst ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  2. 2. Roadmap of our journey Product category forecast Shoppers Online Leading & buyers sales retailers forecast forecast ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  3. 3. The outlook is bright for US retail ecommerce sales Online sales will grow more than 4 times the rate of 3.4% the NRF forecasts for total retail sales in 2013 Retail Ecommerce Sales Defined R CAG 14% Products/services ordered online or price and terms of sale negotiated online, even if payment or fulfillment occurs in-store Included: o digital downloads (e.g., music from iTunes and movies from Netflix) o Gross merchandise value (GMV) of items sold on online marketplaces like Amazon and eBay o Sales from US retail websites to foreign customers Excluded: o Travel and event tickets sold online ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  4. 4. What forces are influencing ecommerce growth? Convenience, price and selection Consumers find information, compare prices and access The Economy virtually limitless product After a burst of economic gains selection at anytime, from in January and February, job anywhere growth slowed to a trickle in March, raising concerns about the strength of the economic recovery in 2013 Waves of innovation Mobile, globalization, omnichannel capabilities, online marketplaces, personalization, expedited fulfillment, new business models Twitter – #eMwebinar ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  5. 5. Mobile spending has begun to have an impact on ecommerce Tablet Share of Mcommerce Sales 2013 2017 62.5% 71.5% ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  6. 6. US ecommerce is also starting to get a boost from international sales 2013 Asia Ecommerce Facts Asia-Pacific will surpass North America as the world’s biggest B2C ecommerce market B2C ecommerce sales in Asia- Pacific will grow more than 30% vs. 12.2% in North America China, India and Indonesia are driving the fast ecommerce growth in Asia-Pacific China, the primary driver of Asia- Pacific growth, will surpass Japan as the region’s largest B2C ecommerce market Note: B2C includes travel, digital downloads and event tickets sales Source: eMarketer, February 2013 ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  7. 7. Comparative estimates of ecommerce sales growth range from 10% to 14% ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  8. 8. Historically, research firms have been bearish in forecasting online sales ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  9. 9. Ecommerce is gradually accounting for more of total retail sales Ecommerce is growing 2-3 times …and the result is rising faster than total retail sales online sales penetration rates Twitter – #eMwebinar ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  10. 10. But thinking about channels as distinct entities ignores how consumers shop “At some point that breakdown becomes immeasurable and irrelevant.” Source: eMarketer interview, March 2013 Eric Best CEO Mercent “This notion of channel is almost melting away. What’s important is how different channels influence each other and how to attribute customer engagement across them.” Source: eMarketer interview, March 2013 Sean Cook CEO ShopVisible ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  11. 11. Roadmap of our journey Product category forecast Shoppers Online Leading & buyers sales retailers forecast forecast ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  12. 12. The two largest product categories will account for 42.9% of total online sales in 2013 ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  13. 13. A mix of larger and smaller online product categories will post the highest CAGRs from 2012-2017 ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  14. 14. Several categories exceed the online penetration rate of 6% for total retail ecommerce sales ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  15. 15. Categories to watch: Apparel and accessories Market Position Low Medium High Size (billion) $54.2 Growth 17.2% Penetration 14% Source: eMarketer, Booz & Company Growth Enablers Body scanning technology Runway videos 360 degree product views Home try-on programs ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  16. 16. Categories to watch: CPG (groceries and personal care) Market Position Low Medium High Size (billion) $18.3 Growth 15.2% Penetration 1-4% Source: eMarketer, Booz & Company Growth Enablers Automatic replenishment programs Broader product selection Faster and lower-cost delivery Twitter – #eMwebinar ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  17. 17. Categories to watch: Autos and parts Market Position Low Medium High Size (billion) $25.5 Growth 9.2% Penetration <5% Source: eMarketer Growth Enablers In 2011, 35% of new vehicle buyers said they would buy a car online, up from 21% in 2009* Powerful car dealership lobby has blocked the sale of cars online Source: *Capgemini, Oct 2011 ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  18. 18. Roadmap of our journey Product category forecast Shoppers Online Leading & buyers sales forecast retailers forecast ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  19. 19. Amazon is a powerful engine of ecommerce growth Amazon accounts for a large share of US online sales and is growing faster than ecommerce overall If 2012 sales included the gross merchandise value from third-party merchants, Amazon’s contribution to US ecommerce sales would be around 25%. Source: JMP Securities, March 2013 ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  20. 20. Two Amazon growth engines: Prime and its third-party sellers marketplace Key Stats  Amazon said unit sales from its third- party sellers in the US increased more Membership (millions) than 40% over the 2011 holiday season 2011 4  Online marketplaces (e.g., Amazon, 2012 10 eBay, Rakuten and Sears) account for 27% online retail sales* 2017 25  Marketplaces introduce consumers to Annual Spend unfamiliar retailersand greater product Prime members $1,224 selection Non-members $505 Source: *ChannelAdvisor, 2012 Source: Consumer Intelligence Research Partners ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  21. 21. A number of major retail chains reported strong online sales growth Twitter – #eMwebinar ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  22. 22. Factors attributed to strong growth  Reduced conflict between its stores and website by restructuring company by major brands—Gap, Old Navy and Banana Republic —as opposed to by stores, online, outlets and international  Better website search and navigation  Richer product information  Richer visualization tools  Speedier order fulfillment and delivery  Increased coordination across digital and store channels  Upgraded mobile and online sites  Enhanced customer engagement features Source: Corporate earnings announcements as reported in Internet Retailer ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  23. 23. Retailers attribute omnichannel initiatives with boosting sales growth Walgreens found that its omnichannel shoppers spend more than its single-channel shoppers Stores-only 1 Stores + Web 1 2 3 3-1/2 Stores + Web + Mobile 1 2 3 4 5 6 Source: Miguel, Almeida, VP of ecommerce at Walgreens at a session at Retails’ Big Show 2013, sponsored by the National Retail Federation ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  24. 24. Roadmap of our journey Product category forecast Shoppers Online Leading & buyers sales retailers forecast forecast ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  25. 25. Current (not new) online buyers are driving the bulk of ecommerce sales growth Key Shopper/Buyer Stats CAGR (2012-2017) Shoppers 2.7% Buyers 3.8% 2013 Buyers as a % 82.2% of shoppers ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  26. 26. Smartphones and tablets have become commonplace devices for buying online Twitter – #eMwebinar ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  27. 27. By all estimates a strong majority of internet users make online purchases ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  28. 28. Online buying is prevalent across all age cohorts Buyers 65+ will grow faster than any other group at a 7.3% CAGR from 2012-2017 ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  29. 29. Online spending is well distributed across household income segments ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  30. 30. Impetus for spending more online: Personalization Survey Findings 41% of online shoppers buy more from retailers who send them personalized emails based on past browsing and buying behavior 39% purchase more on retail sites with product recommendations Source: The e-tailing group, sponsored by MyBuys, December 2012 Personalization Drives Online Sales at Sears Shop Your Way membership program, which offers personalized product offers based on customer shopping behavior and other characteristics, strongly contributed to:  25% boost in online sales for Q4 2012  17% increase for all of 2012 Source: Internet Retailer, March 2013 ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  31. 31. Impetus for spending more online: Trust and security “Every year we see more consumers who were latecomers to online shopping trusting ecommerce.” Source: eMarketer interview, March 2013 Vineet Buch Group product manager Google “Free returns engender online trust by reducing the likelihood a consumer will have buyers’ remorse.” Source: eMarketer interview, March 2013 Jason Goldberg VP strategy Razorfish ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  32. 32. What were the highlights of our journey? Product category forecast Shoppers Online Leading & buyers sales retailers forecast forecast ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  33. 33. Takeaways  US retail ecommerce sales will increase at a 14% CAGR from 2012 to 2017  Mobile users’ share of US retail ecommerce sales will rise from 15% in 2013 to 25% by 2017  Ecommerce growth comes from current (not new) online buyers, who account for 73% of internet users  Apparel & accessories and CPG are large categories with strong online growth potential  All age groups partake in online buying, but those ages 65+ are the fastest growing cohort Twitter – #eMwebinar ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  34. 34. Trend: Greater Need for Guidance when Shopping Online
  35. 35. This is Where Needle Comes in
  36. 36. Power of a Needler
  37. 37. How Needle Does It
  38. 38. Guided Shopping Online Using Your Best Fans
  39. 39. Learn more about mobile marketing with Q&A Session an eMarketer corporate subscription US Retail Ecommerce About 200 eMarketer reports are Outlook—What’s published each year. The following are Driving Growth a few recent ones you may be interested in: US Retail Ecommerce: 2013 Forecast and Comparative Estimates Online User Reviews: Building Trust and Boosting Sales Shopping Cart Abandonment: New Ways of Looking at the Purchase Path Jeffrey Grau Retail Mobile Commerce Forecast: Shoppers Turn to You will receive an email Smartphones First tomorrow with a link to Multichannel Customer Service: Best Practices for view the deck and webinar recording. Building Retail Loyalty Sponsored by: To learn more: www.emarketer.com/products Needle 800-405-0844 or webinars@emarketer.com ©2013 eMarketer Inc.