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eMarketer Webinar: Online Holiday Shopping Forecast and Trends 2016

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eMarketer Webinar: Online Holiday Shopping Forecast and Trends 2016

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Last year, US internet users spent more than $79 billion on digital purchases during the holiday season of November and December. Register here for a complimentary eMarketer webinar, Online Holiday Shopping Forecast and Trends 2016, and learn what to expect for this year’s holiday shopping season, including eMarketer’s latest projection for holiday ecommerce sales. Topics in this webinar include: How long will the ecommerce holiday shopping season be this year? How will the convergence of online and offline retail accelerate this season? How will mobile continue to change the holiday shopping landscape? What role will augmented reality and conversational commerce play in this year’s holiday shopping season?

Last year, US internet users spent more than $79 billion on digital purchases during the holiday season of November and December. Register here for a complimentary eMarketer webinar, Online Holiday Shopping Forecast and Trends 2016, and learn what to expect for this year’s holiday shopping season, including eMarketer’s latest projection for holiday ecommerce sales. Topics in this webinar include: How long will the ecommerce holiday shopping season be this year? How will the convergence of online and offline retail accelerate this season? How will mobile continue to change the holiday shopping landscape? What role will augmented reality and conversational commerce play in this year’s holiday shopping season?

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eMarketer Webinar: Online Holiday Shopping Forecast and Trends 2016

  1. 1. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Made possible by Online Holiday Shopping Forecast and Trends 2016 Yory Wurmser Retail Analyst September 8, 2016
  2. 2. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Story of online Holiday 2016 has two big themes Retail ecommerce sales will continue to skyrocket Brick-and-mortar retailers will build stronger bridges to online shoppers Source: commons.Wikimedia.org Source: commons.Wikimedia.org
  3. 3. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. US Retail Ecommerce Growth Will Skyrocket
  4. 4. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Overall retail sales growth will be moderate, but ecommerce will rise rapidly this holiday season  Retail ecommerce sales will jump 17.2% for the season, the highest rate since 2011  Retail sales will rebound slightly, up 3.3% from a weak 2015 #eMwebinar
  5. 5. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. 2015 was a strong year for retail ecommerce, but 2016 will be even better  Retail ecommerce sales will grow 16.1% in 2016  Ecommerce’s share of US retail sales will increase to 8.2% in 2016 #eMwebinar
  6. 6. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. US retail ecommerce will increase in each quarter of 2016, with the largest gain in Q4 #eMwebinar
  7. 7. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. The two-month holiday season will have an even higher ecommerce growth rate (17.2%), pushing ecommerce to 10.7% of retail sales #eMwebinar
  8. 8. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. So What’s Behind Ecommerce’s Torrid Growth?
  9. 9. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Two factors are driving up ecommerce in 2016 Source: Yory Wurmser
  10. 10. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. One big factor powering US retail ecommerce is the rapid growth of retail mcommerce  US retail mcommerce will grow 43.2% in 2016  Mcommerce’s share of retail ecommerce sales will hit 29.1% in 2016 #eMwebinar
  11. 11. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. The largest part of mcommerce growth will come from purchases via smartphones  US smartphone retail mcommerce will surge 78.3% in 2016, an improvement over a spectacular 2015  2016 will be the first year that smartphones account for more than half of US mcommerce sales #eMwebinar
  12. 12. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Mobile accounted for the majority of retail ecommerce site traffic* during Holiday 2015 * On IBM’s platform #eMwebinar
  13. 13. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. The Amazon Effect  Amazon captured 36% of US ecommerce sales on Cyber Monday in 2015 (Source: Slice Intelligence)  Amazon’s share of holiday ecommerce will rise from 26% in 2015 to 28% to 30% in 2016 (Source: NetElixir)  Amazon’s ecommerce sales grew 18.4% in trailing 12 months (through Q2 2016) vs. roughly 15% for ecommerce overall in the US (Source: eMarketer and Amazon)  63 million US consumers using Prime as of June 2016 (Source: Consumer Intelligence Research Group)  Nearly 70% of Amazon shoppers in Holiday 2015 made a purchase on a mobile device (Source: Amazon) #eMwebinar
  14. 14. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Amazon is increasingly used as a de facto search engine during the holiday season #eMwebinar
  15. 15. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Offline Sales Lag
  16. 16. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. In fact, foot traffic continues to fall  RetailNext found that same store sales and foot traffic shrunk each month between February and July 2016 #eMwebinar
  17. 17. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Total retail sales will improve in 2016 vs. a weak 2015, but won’t herald an era of fast growth  eMarketer expects that overall US retail sales will grow 2.9% this year, up from a 1.4% increase in 2015 #eMwebinar
  18. 18. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Gas station sales have suppressed retail sales over the past two years, but the effect is lessening in 2016 #eMwebinar
  19. 19. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Car sales boosted retail sales from 2012 to 2015, but haven’t done so this year  H1 retail sales without gas stations or auto dealers hovered around a 3% gain between H1 2013 and H1 2015, but growth was stronger in H1 2016
  20. 20. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Brick-and-Mortar Retailers Are Building Better Bridges to Digital Shoppers
  21. 21. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. The 2016 holiday season should see advances in four areas that bind online and offline commerce 1. Better fulfillment 2. Better local advertising products 3. Local digital merchandising 4. Better offline attribution #eMwebinar
  22. 22. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. 1. Better fulfillment Fast, free shipping is the leading factor for influencing holiday purchases #eMwebinar
  23. 23. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Demand for variable fulfillment options is growing More than half of back-to-school shoppers in 2016 planned to use buy online, pick up in-store fulfillment options #eMwebinar
  24. 24. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. In-store pickup is spreading, but retailers are still working out the kinks 42% Of retailers reported offering in-store pickup, but nearly half of those reported that it was not working well yet Source: Boston Retail Partners, June 2016 #eMwebinar
  25. 25. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Retailers in 2015 pushed the cutoff date for holiday deliveries right up to Christmas  In 2014, 39% of retailers had a cutoff date of December 21 or later  In 2015, 54% had a cutoff date of December 21 or later #eMwebinar
  26. 26. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Last year, only 39% of US internet users were finished with holiday shopping by December 21 #eMwebinar
  27. 27. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. 2. Better local advertising US mobile local ad spending will rise by almost a third in 2016 #eMwebinar
  28. 28. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Local search drives brick-and-mortar traffic 50% of mobile local searches lead to an in-store visit Source: Google, 2014 #eMwebinar
  29. 29. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Mobile’s share of paid search is increasing  40% of paid search ad spending in North America in Q2 2016 was for mobile searches  58% of clicks were on mobile #eMwebinar
  30. 30. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Mobile Product Listing Ad (PLA) clicks more than doubled during the 2015 holiday season  Growth of mobile PLAs exceeded the growth of mobile search more broadly #eMwebinar
  31. 31. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Local Inventory Ads (LIAs) have become more prominent  Require real-time inventory visibility and integration with point-of-sale and marketing systems  5% to 7% of total Google Shopping clicks now come from LIAs (Source: Merkle)  Clickthrough rates 50% higher for LIAs than for standard mobile PLAs (Source: Merkle) #eMwebinar
  32. 32. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. LIAs could play a pivotal role in the final days before Christmas “One week in particular that’s always a little slow for us is the week right before Christmas. Even after the shipping cutoff, in those few days right before Christmas, [LIAs are] a great opportunity to get out there and drive people into your stores.” —Jared DeSisto, Senior Manager, SEM and Feeds, Merkle #eMwebinar
  33. 33. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. 3. Local digital merchandising Site merchandising was a leading priority for US digital retailers following last year’s holiday season #eMwebinar
  34. 34. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Retailers can import offline information to create more personalized digital merchandising “Retailers already have my offline data—they know what I like; they know the prices I like; they know that I’m a female; they know how old I am, all of that. They can import the information and utilize both the offline and the online behavioral data to show to me the kinds of products [like those] I’m searching.” —Madeline Ng, Product Marketing Lead, BloomReach #eMwebinar
  35. 35. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Digital merchandising is starting to reflect the shopper’s current location #eMwebinar (Images source: Jetlore)
  36. 36. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. 4. Better local attribution: Many new ways to track offline purchases back to online ads  Facebook – Offline conversions API – Store visits  Google – Offline conversion and store visits tracking in AdWords – Attribution 360  Others #eMwebinar
  37. 37. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Holiday Outlook for Two Trends Generating Buzz
  38. 38. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. 1. Conversational Commerce Commerce embedded within AI-enhanced conversations (Images source: Kik) #eMwebinar
  39. 39. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Conversational platforms have huge scale  US Facebook Messenger users will top 100 million in 2016 #eMwebinar
  40. 40. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. 3% of US internet users reported having a smart speaker (mostly Amazon Echo) in June 2016 #eMwebinar
  41. 41. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Conversational platforms are releasing commerce-related bots and extensions  Facebook Messenger introduced: – Conversations with brands, mostly around clienteling or customer service (2015) – Chatbots and send/receive API (April 2016)  Kik introduced a bot store in April 2016  Apple will release iOS 10 next week with: – Siri extensions that connect queries to apps via an API – iMessage apps  Alexa had 1,400 skills (as of July 2016) #eMwebinar
  42. 42. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Conversational commerce is generating buzz, but the big impact won’t happen until 2017 “There are a lot of retailers who are very interested in this, but they’re waiting on the sidelines to see it develop a little more before they plunge in. So, I’m not 100% convinced that this holiday season is going to be a really massive time for conversational commerce, but I would put it on the next holiday.” —Kent Deverell, CEO, Fluid #eMwebinar
  43. 43. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. 2. Augmented Reality: Pokémon Go is just one aspect of a burgeoning field Pokémon Go:  500 million downloads (Source: Niantic, 9/7/2016)  $440 million in revenue (Source: Sensor Tower)  On 12% of US smartphones (Source: Sensor Tower) (Images source: www.pokemon.com)
  44. 44. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Pokémon Go has the potential to become an advertising platform (Images source: Toru Hanai/Reuters via Techinsider.io)  McDonald’s Japan has bought sponsored gyms for 400 restaurants and Pokéstops for its 2,500 other restaurants  Softbank in Japan will have 3,700 stores as a sponsored location #eMwebinar
  45. 45. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Most Pokémon players would be interested in some form of sponsored content in the game  The most acceptable sponsored content: – free coins – redeemable items following a purchase – unique game items available at physical stores  59% would be open to sponsored stops or gyms
  46. 46. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Interest in sponsored location in the US seems muted “Right now I am not sure that we would have anybody in the holiday season advertising within Pokémon.” —Scott Shamberg, US President, Performics #eMwebinar
  47. 47. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. At the launch of Pokémon Go, less than a third of US internet users had heard of augmented reality #eMwebinar
  48. 48. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Augmented reality as a whole has benefitted from the awareness generated by Pokémon Go “The understanding and interest in augmented reality has spiked since the launch of Pokémon Go. Now people understand what it is, what it does and why it’s so cool and fun.” —Jennifer Tidy, CMO, Modiface #eMwebinar
  49. 49. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. But various augmented reality retail applications have been successful  Keys to their success: – Ease of use – Accessibility (Images source: Modiface #eMwebinar
  50. 50. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Recap  Overall US retail sales will grow by a tepid 3.1% during the 2016 holiday season  US retail ecommerce sales will expand by 17.2%  US retailers will rely on four advances that will help them bridge the online/offline gap: – Better fulfillment; better local advertising products; local digital merchandising; better offline attribution  Conversational commerce and augmented reality have generated recent buzz, but their holiday impact will be minimal #eMwebinar
  51. 51. ©2016 AKAMAI | FASTER FORWARDTM Akamai enables the anytime, anywhere shopping experience Partnering with 1000+ commerce companies worldwide. Securely enabling more than $350 billion in annual e-commerce transactions. Trusted by 96 of the top 100 online retailers.
  52. 52. ©2016 AKAMAI | FASTER FORWARDTM Akamai’s Intelligent Global Platform Instant Global Access To 100% of your digital content The world’s largest centralized global cloud network 1440 terrestrial & cellular networks 1st party access to 90% of internet users Your digital content & code is available in an instant Real-time deployment & fast purge Self-service and management options Unparalleled scale & automation to avoid service disruptions SureRoute for availability & speed 21+ Tbps avg daily traffic with 24/7 NOCC
  53. 53. ©2016 AKAMAI | FASTER FORWARDTM Fully Integrated Delivery, Acceleration & Security Solutions The web & mobile performance & security leader We accelerate & secure 30% of the internet Driving standards for networks, browsers & devices Unparalleled expertise in global commerce >1000 commerce partners + 96 of the top 100 brands $350 billion in fast, secure commerce transactions Performance and security from end- to-end Accelerate web and mobile apps & APIs Protection from bots, malicious traffic, and DDoS Fast and Secure Optimizing every port and protocol
  54. 54. ©2016 AKAMAI | FASTER FORWARDTM The Best Possible Experience for Every User Accelerate & secure 100% of your digital and rich content Agile strategies for content caching and media delivery Take advantage of advances in H/2 and encryption Optimize content, images and APIs for mobile Adaptive acceleration for maximum speed & efficiency Integrate with any commerce & content platform Eliminate slowdowns and security challenges Adaptive threat detection with client reputation Industry expertise with real- time SOCC to ensure safety Maximizing User Experiences Across Desktop, Tablet and Mobile web and apps
  55. 55. ©2016 AKAMAI | FASTER FORWARDTM How Do You Want To Be Supported? Automation that learns from billions of apps & users The fastest time to market for all of your online apps Maximize productivity and focus Simple, real-time configurations and controls Luna web portal for self- service management Cloudlets simplify cross- functional tasks Complete customization and developer agility Extend your code and compute to the edge Development SDKs for mobile app customization Intelligent Automation, Customization & Control So you can focus on maximizing YOUR business
  56. 56. ©2016 AKAMAI | FASTER FORWARDTM Akamai is your trusted partner during the holidays & 365 days a year Instant Global Access To 100% of your digital content Fast and Secure Optimizing every port and protocol Maximizing User Experiences Across Desktop, Tablet and Mobile web and apps Intelligent Automation, Customization & Control So you can focus on maximizing YOUR business
  57. 57. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Learn more about digital marketing with an eMarketer corporate subscription Around 200 eMarketer reports are published each year. Here are some recent reports you may be interested in: Q&A Session Made possible by You will receive an email tomorrow with a link to view the deck and webinar recording. To learn more: www.emarketer.com/products 800-405-0844 or webinars@emarketer.com Yory Wurmser Online Holiday Shopping Forecast and Trends 2016  Back-to-School Shopping Preview: The Shift to Ecommerce Accelerates  Facebook Messenger: Strategies for Customer Service, Ecommerce, Content and Advertising  US Mcommerce Update 2016: Behind the Rapid Growth  US Holiday Shopping Preview 2016: Absorbing the Lessons of 2016

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