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eMarketer Webinar: Lessons from Holiday Shopping 2014—What You Need to Know for 2015

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eMarketer Webinar: Lessons from Holiday Shopping 2014—What You Need to Know for 2015

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Join eMarketer as we cover the lessons learned from holiday shopping 2014 and our insights on what needs to be improved, optimized or nixed in 2015. Topics in this webinar include: Why did mcommerce make such a big jump in holiday 2014? What is the best way to reach the omnichannel holiday shopper? How is the online holiday shopping calendar changing shape? What to expect in 2015—eMarketer’s ecommerce forecast revealed.

Join eMarketer as we cover the lessons learned from holiday shopping 2014 and our insights on what needs to be improved, optimized or nixed in 2015. Topics in this webinar include: Why did mcommerce make such a big jump in holiday 2014? What is the best way to reach the omnichannel holiday shopper? How is the online holiday shopping calendar changing shape? What to expect in 2015—eMarketer’s ecommerce forecast revealed.

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eMarketer Webinar: Lessons from Holiday Shopping 2014—What You Need to Know for 2015

  1. 1. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Lessons from Holiday Shopping 2014 — What You Need to Know for 2015 Yory Wurmser Retail Analyst March 26, 2015 Made possible by
  2. 2. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Agenda  What happened in the 2014 holiday season?  What should you expect in the 2015 holiday season?  Which four trends from the 2014 holiday season will drive ecommerce growth in 2015?  What was the best way to reach mobile consumers during the holidays?  How is the online shopping calendar changing?
  3. 3. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. What happened in 2014?
  4. 4. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. The 2014 holiday season was moderately good overall in the US, but was very strong online 16.0% 3.5% Total Retail Ecommerce
  5. 5. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. 18.1% of 2014’s total retail sales occurred during November and December $850.58 billion in total retail sales $72.03 billion in ecommerce sales
  6. 6. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Why wasn’t 2014 stronger overall? Downward pressure  Low labor market participation  Weak median income growth  Rising healthcare costs  Gas stations Upward pressure  Strong job growth  High consumer confidence  Rising stock market  Cheap gas Source: rgbstock.com
  7. 7. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Core retail grew more strongly than total retail, which was dragged down by gas stations  NRF data shows 4.0% growth for 2014, up from 3.1% in 2013
  8. 8. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Foot traffic was down 7.1% between Thanksgiving 2014 and January 3, 2015 “ There is this shopper that has greater intent to purchase than we’ve seen before. They come to the stores more researched than they have before.” —Chitra Balasubramanian, head of business analytics at RetailNext
  9. 9. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Overall retail performance was consistent with previous years, but ecommerce growth was the strongest since 2011
  10. 10. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. What to expect in 2015
  11. 11. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Holiday 2015 overall will broadly follow 2014 patterns 14.4% 3.2% Total Retail Ecommerce
  12. 12. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Ecommerce will make a big jump in percentage of Q4 2015 total retail sales Ecommerce’s share of retail sales always rises in Q4, but 2015’s spike will be larger than usual
  13. 13. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Ecommerce will approach 10% of total holiday retail sales in 2015  Growth of holiday season ecommerce is not slowing 6.80% 7.60% 8.50% 9.40% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 2012 2013 2014 2015 Retail Ecommerce Holiday Sales as % of Total Holiday Retail Sales
  14. 14. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Trends that emerged in 2014 will drive ecommerce in 2015 1. Mobile traffic and sales growth 2. Better online and offline integration 3. Improvements in fulfillment 4. A wider online shopping calendar
  15. 15. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Trend #1: Mobile sales and influence grew
  16. 16. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Traffic from mobile devices increased more than expected “ Mobile traffic in general jumped a lot faster, a lot higher, than anybody really expected. Our mobile traffic increased by 78% vs. the previous year.” —Emily Pfeiffer, VP of brand development at Berkshire Blanket
  17. 17. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Smartphones had strong growth in orders generated, traffic and revenue  Smartphone orders grew at twice the pace of tablet orders  MarketLive saw mobile revenues increase 111%
  18. 18. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Mobile traffic was nearly half of online shopping traffic 44.6% of online traffic during holiday 2014 came from mobile devices Source: IBM, “Online Retail Holiday Shopping Recap Report 2014”
  19. 19. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Smartphone conversion rates still lagged far behind desktop and tablet conversion rates  Only 9.1% of digital sales came on smartphones
  20. 20. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Mobile sales increased but still accounted for roughly 1 in 5 digital holiday sales  For 2014 as a whole, eMarketer estimates that 19.0% of retail ecommerce sales occurred on mobile devices
  21. 21. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Why the big jump in mobile commerce this year?
  22. 22. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Reason No. 1: More mobile shoppers and buyers
  23. 23. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Number of US mobile shoppers grew by 25 million in 2014  150.4 million mobile shoppers by end of 2014  171.0 million mobile shoppers by end of 2015 Increase in mobile shoppers: +25.4M in 1 year
  24. 24. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Number of US mobile buyers growing almost as quickly as number of mobile shoppers  104.8 million mobile buyers by end of 2014  121.8 million mobile buyers by end of 2015 Increase in mobile buyers: +22.1M in 1 year
  25. 25. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Reason No. 2: Better user interfaces led to more conversions  Larger screen sizes  More responsive design  Easier payments
  26. 26. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Larger screen size correlates with lower cart abandonment and higher conversion rates
  27. 27. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Traffic share in North America from large phones more than doubled in 2014  Website traffic from large smartphones rose from 6.9% to 17.9% in 12 months
  28. 28. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. 2014 holiday sales saw big growth in phablets
  29. 29. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Responsive design is spreading rapidly … “ The biggest trend happening in our industry right now is responsive design. It’s taking off, and it’s taking off very quickly. … So what’s driving the mobile trend, really, is better mobile design.” —Ken Burke, CEO of MarketLive
  30. 30. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Responsive design performs better
  31. 31. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. … But responsive design is only part of the solution “ Understanding the customer journey across device type and adapting to it from a customer experience perspective, and even from a marketing perspective, is absolutely critical. … Responsive design is great … but that’s only the tip of the iceberg.” —Don Delzell, director of online at Sports Chalet
  32. 32. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Easier checkout is the leading factor that would make people spend more on their phones
  33. 33. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. New payment options have potential to simplify mcommerce, but are still lightly used  Google Wallet led with an 18% adoption rate in December 2014  Apple Pay was used by 4% of US internet users
  34. 34. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Recap: Mobile conversions increased this holiday season because …  More mobile shoppers and buyers  Better interfaces – Bigger screens – More responsive design – Easier payment options
  35. 35. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Trend #2: Better integration between digital and offline shopping
  36. 36. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Consumers have integrated their online and offline shopping
  37. 37. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Consumers expect seamless integration between online and offline shopping “ Mobile has evolved to become the remote control for … the in-store experience of a brand. Consumers expect that the mobile [app] that a retailer or brand is offering them can help them navigate the store experience, and can help them do so in a personalized way.” —Maya Mikhailov, co-founder and EVP of client strategy at GPShopper
  38. 38. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Consumers turned to mobile on Black Friday
  39. 39. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Most successful retailer apps anticipated customer journey in the store
  40. 40. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Mobile generated more than 50% of website traffic for some big US retailers in December 2014
  41. 41. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Email was one of the best ways to reach consumers on the go in holiday 2014 “ The key to winning this holiday season, at least as far as online shopping goes, was using email marketing effectively.” —Netta Kivilis, head of marketing at Custora
  42. 42. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Email generated a larger percentage of holiday season digital sales in 2014  Up 1.7 percentage points for the season overall compared to 2013  During the Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday period, email drove 23.1% of sales—top among marketing channels
  43. 43. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Trend #3: Improved fulfillment boosted ecommerce
  44. 44. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Holiday 2013: Missed deliveries made headlines  Midwest snowstorms hit FedEx and UPS hubs  Roughly 33% of major etailers tracked by Stella Service missed deliveries  UPS delivered only 83% of holiday express packages on time, according to Shipmatrix Image source: Shutterstock
  45. 45. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Fulfillment problems were largely eliminated during the 2014 holiday season 98% of holiday express packages arrived on time Source: Shipmatrix
  46. 46. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. In-store pick-up increased in 2014, but retailers still lag behind consumer interest “ Buy online and pick-up in-store is growing, which is good, although it’s not growing as fast as it should. … Consumers are demanding it more than retailers are providing it.” —Ken Burke, CEO of MarketLive
  47. 47. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Trend #4: Online shopping calendar spreading out
  48. 48. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. During the 2014 holiday season, free shipping offers peaked in early November
  49. 49. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Holiday 2014’s online shopping surge was earlier, spurred by big discounts  Steepest discounts on Thanksgiving (Nov. 27)  Discounts on Monday and Tuesday before Thanksgiving exceeded Cyber Monday
  50. 50. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Biggest online shopping day was still Cyber Monday, but gap between it and Black Friday shrank
  51. 51. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Biggest sales increase of 2014 holiday season was during weekend of December 20–21: 36%  Increased in-store pick-up  Later shipping cutoffs: Zappos, Apple and Nordstrom all had December 23 shipping cut-off dates  Extended free shipping: Amazon and Barnes & Noble offered free shipping into Christmas week
  52. 52. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Takeaways In 2014:  US retail ecommerce sales grew 16.0% year over year  More mobile shoppers, bigger screens and better interfaces combined to increase the impact of mcommerce  Email played an increasingly important role in holiday marketing  Fulfillment improved  The digital holiday season spread out In 2015, US ecommerce sales are expected to rise 14.4%
  53. 53. Email Marketing. Evolved. Simple and fast, powerful and sophisticated. The email marketing automation platform that transforms your vision into reality
  54. 54. dotmailer.com/optimize The Optimization Dilemma: Testing at the Heart of your Organization
  55. 55. dotmailer.com/RetailAutomation Marketing Automation for Online Retailers: 10 Email Programs Proven to Increase Revenue
  56. 56. dotmailer.com/demo
  57. 57. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Learn more about digital marketing with an eMarketer corporate subscription Around 200 eMarketer reports are published each year. Here are some recent reports you may be interested in: Q&A Session Made possible by You will receive an email tomorrow with a link to view the deck and webinar recording. To learn more: www.emarketer.com/products 800-405-0844 or webinars@emarketer.com Yory Wurmser Lessons Learned from Holiday Shopping 2014 — What You Need to Know for 2015  Holiday Shopping Preview  Omnichannel Trends 2015: Mobile Is the New Retail Hub  Mobile Apps vs Mobile Browsers: How Usage, Ad Spending and Mobile Commerce Sales Differ by Channel  Mobile Commerce Deep Dive: The Products, Channels and Tactics Fueling Growth

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