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© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
Made possible by
Key Digital Trends—15 Things to Know for 2015
Noah Elkin
Executive Editor
December 11, 2014

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© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
Agenda
5 key trends you need to know
5 emerging trends that might get big (but might not)
5 things you don’t have to worry about

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© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
5 Key Trends You Need to Know

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1) “Responsive”
is your
watchword
for 2015
Smartphones
Connected
Consoles
Connected
Consoles
Desktop PCs
Smart Homes
Laptop PCs
Connected TVs
Ambient
Surfaces
Connected
Cars
Wearable
Technology
Tablets
Brands face the imperative to be present, actionable
and relevant across an ever-expanding array of devices,
interfaces and touchpoints

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Being responsive is a larger metaphor for what brands need to do to succeed in a digitally focused, real-time world

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2) Mobile
touches
everything:
content,
commerce,
advertising,
industry
Context becomes a key attribute in a mobile-driven world

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In a year punctuated by mobile-related milestones, one stands out: 2015 will see mobile search reach the tipping point
By year-end 2015, mobile will represent 70% of the total US search audience
Mobile will come to dominate nearly all key search metrics
–Share of organic traffic
–Paid clicks
–Search ad spending
The one exception: ROI
–ROI on mobile search is improving but it will continue to trail desktop search ROI in 2015

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3) The future of advertising lies with automation
Programmatic buying isn’t just for
digital display media anymore

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Small investments outside of display today will open the door to big opportunities tomorrow

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4) Cross-device targeting achieves scale
Facebook, with the relaunch of Atlas, has shown it can work

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Our ability to reach and target consumers still outpaces our ability to measure and attribute their actions

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5) The
internet of
things (IoT) is
becoming … a
thing
It could quickly develop into a multitrillion-dollar market

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The IoT could soon be integrated into our homes, offices and vehicles: Are you prepared?
44% of business executives worldwide have never heard of the internet of things

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5 Emerging Trends That Might Get Big (But Might Not)

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1) Wearables are not quite ready-to-wear
Wearable tech has a lot of potential, but the emphasis
has been more on the tech than the wearable

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The market(s)
for wearable
devices could
be huge ...
depending on
what you
measure (and
when)
19M
Wearable band device
shipments worldwide
(Canalys)
What’s included:
Smart bands
Smart watches
22M
Smart wearable device
shipments worldwide
(CCS Insight)
What’s included:
Smart watches
Wristbands
Wearable cameras
Glasswear
Tokens/Clip-ons
Jewelry
2014
Source: CCS Insight, Aug 2014; Canalys, Sep 2014

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The market(s)
for wearable
devices could
be huge ...
depending on
what you
measure (and
when)
Forecasters are
betting on watches
being the category
standout
What’s included:
Smart watches
Wristbands
Wearable cameras
Glasswear
Tokens/Clip-ons
Jewelry
135M
Smart wearable device
shipments worldwide
(CCS Insight)
330M
Smart watch
shipments worldwide
(ON World)
What’s included:
Smart watches
2018
Source: ON World, June 2014; CCS Insight, Aug 2014

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2) With mobile payments, the answer is still “wait till next year”
Apple’s entry into the proximity payments fray
makes it worth keeping a closer eye on

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Our prediction: Mobile point-of-sale payments
will hit their acceleration phase in 2016
$0
$23
$47
$70
2014 2015 2016 2017
$64.0
$27.5
$8.9
$3.5
Proximity mobile payment transaction value (billions)
Source: eMarketer, Sep 2014
Ramp-up point

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3) Social commerce offers promise
Look to the success of chat apps in Asia-Pacific
for a model of how things could go

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Apps like
China’s
WeChat have
evolved from
messaging to
commerce
Images courtesy of Counterpoint Technology Market Research

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4) Consumers are so bombarded by content that
cutting through the clutter will become harder
We’re in danger of moving from “ads as content”
to “content as ads”

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Content budgets are rising for B2C and B2B brands
More money means more pressure to demonstrate results
Keep an eye out for signs of “content overload”

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5) Cord- cutting: Still more hype than reality, but for how long?
US consumers are more likely to spend less on
pay TV than spend nothing at all … for now

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That’s why you need to pay attention to
consumers’ evolving video consumption habits
5 hours 28 minutes
Total time spent/day with video by US adults
TV
4 hrs 33 min
83% of video time
Mobile
33 min
10% of video time
PC
22 min
7% of video time
Up 0.9%
vs. 2013
No change
vs. 2013
Up 50%
vs. 2013
Source: eMarketer, Sep 2014

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5 Things You Don’t Need to Worry About

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The First Thing You Don’t Need to Worry About in 2015

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The desktop

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The desktop-only audience is in decline

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The Second Thing You Don’t Need to Worry About in 2015

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QR codes
They’re not going to be
the “next big thing”

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Adoption among US smartphone owners has begun to plateau

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The Third Thing You Don’t Need to Worry About in 2015

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Social TV
The conversation is
pretty quiet

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Lack of engagement limits marketer commitment
Consumers’ top four second-screen activities have nothing to do with the show they’re watching
CONSUMERS
MARKETERS

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The Fourth Thing You Don’t Need to Worry About in 2015

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Baby boomers
Unless you’re selling
healthcare, you don’t
need to worry about
boomers

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Healthcare is the only major expenditure that increases as consumers age

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The Fifth Thing You Don’t Need to Worry About in 2015

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Privacy and
security
Wait: What?!?

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Concerns about digital privacy and security have risen without affecting usage

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These trends are changing the discipline of marketing
Timeless
Marketers have always
been responsible for knowing
the customer.
Marketers have always been
responsible for defining what to
market, and how to market.
Marketers have always
protected the brand promise.
2012
Understanding each customer
as an individual.
Creating a system of engagement
that maximizes value creation
at every touch.
Designing your culture and brand
so they are authentically one.
2014
Know each customer in context.
Innovate and scale personally
relevant and rewarding
experiences.
Co-create with customers,
employees and partners.
@jay_henderson © 2014 IBM Corporation

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@jay_henderson © 2014 IBM Corporation
Beyond marketing: Leaders are creating systems of engagement

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@jay_henderson © 2014 IBM Corporation
Beyond marketing: Leaders are creating systems of engagement

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@jay_henderson © 2014 IBM Corporation
Continuous customer engagement is challenging, but rewarding
Siloed systems and processes
Limited insight of a
customer’s behavior
across touch points—
increasingly outside
the company
Lack of skills

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@jay_henderson © 2014 IBM Corporation

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© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
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Noah Elkin
Key Digital Trends—15 Things to Know for 2015
Key Digital Trends for 2015: What's in Store—and Not in Store—for the Coming Year
Mobile Search Trends: Dominating SERPs While Venturing into Apps and Anticipatory Search
2014 Programmatic Advertising Forecast: Digital Display Spending Broadening Beyond Open Exchanges
Social Marketing Update: Eight Trends to Help Prepare for 2015