The document discusses how communications technologies have changed exponentially due to Moore's Law and Metcalfe's Law, growing from 22 million computers in 1955 to 660 million in 2000 and the introduction of new devices like PlayStation. However, social and legal systems for regulating communications have changed incrementally, relying on public utility models from the past. This disconnect risks stifling innovation if policy does not adapt to treat new services differently than traditional utilities with natural monopolies.

2. The Future of Communications:Surviving the push toward public utility regulation Larry Downeswww.larrydownes.com © 2011 by Larry Downes. All rights reserved.

3. The Law of Disruption: technology changes exponentially, but social, economic, and legal systems change incrementally.

4. Moore’s Law Metcalfe’s Law

5. c. 1955

6. c. 2000 22 Million UNIVACs

7. 2000 2005 PlayStation 2 22 million Univacs PlayStation 3 660 million Univacs

17. Prices are set by utility commissions

18. No wasteful competition

19. No duplication of infrastructure

20. Service is universal

22. Prices never decline

23. Technologies are mature

24. New services are rare

29. Which would you prefer?