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1
THE FUTURE OF DIGITAL RETAIL
Deborah Weinswig
Fung Business Intelligence Centre Global Retail & Technology
deborahweinswig@fung1937.com
Cell: 917-655-6790
@debweinswig
2
AGENDA
•  About Fung Business Intelligent Centre (FBIC)
•  Holiday 2015 Wrap-Up
•  Top 16 Disruptors for 2016
•  Top Five Retail Technology Trends in Asia
3
Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC)
•  Established in 2000 and headquartered in Hong Kong
•  FBIC serves as the knowledge bank and think tank for the Fung Group
–  Collects and analyzes market data on sourcing, supply chains, distribution and retail
–  Provides thought leadership on technology and other key issues
•  New York–based Global Retail & Technology team
–  Follows broader retail and technology trends
–  Provides advice and consultancy services to colleagues and business partners of the
Fung Group
–  Builds collaborative knowledge communities
4
Futureproofing
•  Anticipating future trends and developments
•  Plan for future value and avoid obsolescence
–  What problem are you trying to solve?
–  How will the solution be used?
–  How robust does it need to be?
•  Ensure flexibility to manage changing formats and deployment patterns
5
OUR PARTNERSHIP WITH ACCELERATORS
Alchemist Accelerator is an accelerator exclusively for startups whose revenue comes from
enterprises, not consumers.
CoCoon is a coworking space where entrepreneurs, creative talent, successful leaders and
investors meet, collaborate and deliver results together. Member companies get access to
networking opportunities, work space, a photography studio and mentors.
Entrepreneurs Roundtable Accelerator (ERA) provides participant companies with an intensive
four-month program, with the goal of helping early-stage companies progress rapidly into
exciting, viable businesses.
New York Fashion Tech Lab is an accelerator that is a result of a collaboration between the
Partnership Fund for New York City, Springboard Enterprises and major fashion retailers. It
focuses on early- and growth-stage companies.
Plug and Play is a global innovation platform. It connects startups to corporations, and invests
in over 100 companies every year. Its 360° ecosystem allows for remarkable innovation to take
shape on an international scale.
Techstars is a global ecosystem that empowers entrepreneurs to bring new technologies to
market wherever they choose to build their business.
6
Fung Capital/FBIC Commerce Technology Landscape
7
HOLIDAY 2015 WRAP-UP
8
HOLIDAY THEMES
•  Highly promotional holiday was expected
–  Women’s apparel bounced back, up 10%+, while men’s lagged
–  Double-digit growth in furniture sales suggests consumers are
willing to spend on big-ticket items (MasterCard Advisors)
•  Earlier and later shopping
–  In 2015, 1 in 4 shoppers bought a Christmas gift before Halloween
–  Almost half did the majority of their shopping before Cyber Monday
–  There was a surge in foot traffic in the final week of 2015
•  Bifurcation of spending
–  Luxury slowed with the strong US dollar and fewer tourists spending
Neiman	
  Marcus	
  
Saks	
  
Nordstrom	
  
Bloomingdale’s	
  
Ann	
  Taylor	
  
Costco	
  
Macy’s	
  
Dillard’s	
  
Supervalu	
  
JCPenney	
  
Kohl’s	
  
Kroger	
  
Safeway	
  
Drugstores	
  	
  
(CVS/Walgreens)	
  
BJ’s/Sam’s	
  Club	
  
Target	
  
Kmart/Sears	
  
Walmart	
  
Primark	
  
Dollar	
  Stores	
  	
  
Aldi/Lidl	
  
	
  
9
NRF Reported a Solid 3% For Holiday 2015
$529	
  
$554	
  
$569	
  
$584	
  
$608	
  
$626	
  
5.2%	
  
4.6%	
  
2.7%	
   2.7%	
  
4.1%	
  
3.0%	
  
0%	
  
2%	
  
4%	
  
6%	
  
8%	
  
10%	
  
$480	
  
$520	
  
$560	
  
$600	
  
$640	
  
2010	
   2011	
   2012	
   2013	
   2014	
   2015	
  
Growth	
  Rate	
  
Holiday	
  Retail	
  Sales	
  (USD	
  Bil.)	
  
Holiday	
  Retail	
  Sales	
   Growth	
  Rate	
  
10
2015 Holiday Results
•  US retail sales slipped 0.1% month over month in December after a revised 0.4% increase in November ,
according to the Commerce Department
•  Holiday spending between Black Friday and Christmas Eve was up 7.9% year over year, according to
MasterCard Advisors’ SpendingPulse
•  Physical store still important: 91% holiday shoppers shopped for holiday at stores, 32% purchased online and
picked up in stores (ICSC)
•  Holiday online sales rose by 20% year over year
•  Free shipping is the new normal—Demandware reported that 88% of US online retail purchases qualified for free
shipping on Cyber Monday
•  Amazon reported a massive 2015 holiday season; it added 3 million new Amazon Prime subscribers and
shipped more than 200 million items for free to Prime members
•  Almost 70% of Amazon customers shopped on a mobile device during the holiday period
•  comScore reported that US retail e-commerce spending from desktop computers reached $35.4 billion during
the first 36 days of the November–December 2015 holiday season, marking a 6% increase versus the same
period in 2014
11
MIXED DECEMBER COMPS
Macy’s: (4.7)% combined November–December comps, though digital sales rose by
about 25%
“About 80% of our year-over-year declines in comparable sales can be attributed to shortfalls in cold-
weather goods such as coats, sweaters, boots, hats, gloves and scarves.” – CEO Terry Lundgren
JCPenney: November–December comps +3.9%, lapping +3.7% last year
“Despite unprecedented warm weather that significantly affected apparel sales, our focus of private
brands, omni-channel execution and a compelling gift-giving selection resulted in strong holiday sales.”
– CEO Marvin Ellison
L Brands: December comps +8%
“Best December ever.” – CEO Les Wexner
Ascena Retail Group: December comps (4)%
“The holiday period for specialty retail was marked by soft traffic and unseasonably warm conditions, and was
highly competitive. Excluding the planned decline at Justice, consolidated comparable sales were flat to last
year.” – CEO David Jaffe
12
Mixed Holiday Results—Final Tally Still to Come
•  US retail sales were up 2.9%
for the week ended January
2 and up 2.2% for December,
according to Johnson
Redbook
•  RetailNext reported that
December US traffic dropped
by 5.8%, and that it dropped
by 6.4% in the November–
December holiday shopping
period
Sales	
   Traffic	
   Conversion	
  
Average	
  
Transacon	
  	
  
Value	
  
Sales	
  Per	
  	
  
Shopper	
  
Transacons	
   %	
  Returns	
  
December	
   -­‐0.4%	
   -­‐5.8%	
   0.4%	
   3.6%	
   5.7%	
   -­‐3.8%	
   -­‐0.3%	
  
Nov/Dec	
   -­‐2.0%	
   -­‐6.4%	
   0.3%	
   3.3%	
   4.8%	
   -­‐5.0%	
   -­‐0.2%	
  
Thanksgiving	
   -­‐4.7%	
   -­‐5.1%	
   -­‐0.5%	
   3.1%	
   0.3%	
   -­‐7.0%	
   -­‐0.1%	
  
November	
   -­‐5.6%	
   -­‐7.6%	
   0.0%	
   3.2%	
   2.3%	
   -­‐8.3%	
   0.1%	
  
October	
   -­‐12.2%	
   -­‐10.7%	
   -­‐0.7%	
   3.8%	
   -­‐1.1%	
   -­‐15.1%	
   0.2%	
  
September	
   -­‐8.7%	
   -­‐8.1%	
   -­‐0.1%	
   1.1%	
   -­‐0.5%	
   -­‐9.6%	
   0.1%	
  
August	
   -­‐7.3%	
   -­‐9.9%	
   0.2%	
   1.6%	
   2.9%	
   -­‐8.7%	
   0.2%	
  
Source:	
  RetailNext	
  
13
Favorable Macro Backdrop
•  Lower gas prices continue to
provide a silver lining for US
consumers
•  Inflation/Deflation
–  Apparel prices remain deflationary
–  Food prices fell into deflationary
range in November
Indicator	
   	
  Period	
   2015	
   2014	
   YoY	
  %	
  Chg.	
  	
  
Gas	
  Price	
  (USD/Gallon)	
  
Avg.	
  	
  
(Nov./Dec.)	
  
$2.10	
  	
   $2.70	
  	
   -­‐22%	
  
Per	
  Capita	
  Disposable	
  	
  
Personal	
  Income	
  
Nov.	
   $42,274	
  	
   $40,996	
  	
   3.1%	
  
Savings	
  Rate	
   Nov.	
   5.5%	
   4.6%	
   90	
  bps	
  
S&P/Case-­‐Shiller	
  20-­‐City	
  
Composite	
  Home	
  Price	
  Index	
  
Oct.	
   182.8	
   173.2	
   5.6%	
  
Unemployment	
  Rate	
   4Q	
   5.0%	
   5.7%	
   (70)	
  bps	
  
University	
  of	
  Michigan	
  Consumer	
  
SenYment	
  
Avg.	
  	
  
(Nov./Dec.)	
  
92.0	
   91.2	
   0.8%	
  
Source:	
  Haver	
  Analy5cs	
  	
  
14
Warm Weather in Key US Markets Affects Sales of Winter Categories
•  Warmest winter in over 55 years
•  Increased traffic to retailers and
restaurants
•  Left manufacturers with extra inventory
•  Demand for winter goods decreased, but
consumers still spent on alternate goods
over the holidays
•  Unprecedented spending on springtime
products
Source:	
  Planaly5cs	
  
15
E-Commerce Sales Delivered Strong Results
•  First Data recorded a 9.4% total
spending increase for Thanksgiving
and Black Friday
•  ShopperTrak reported a 10% decline
in in-store sales during Thanksgiving
weekend
•  MasterCard SpendingPulse said e-
commerce sales were up 20% this
holiday
•  RetailNext reported that US store
sales were down 4.7% on a 5.1%
decline in store traffic
Source:	
  comScore	
  and	
  ShopperTrak	
  	
  	
  
Brick	
  and	
  
Mortar	
  
Total	
  Digital	
  
Desktop	
  
Mobile	
  
%	
  of	
  Total	
  
Consumer	
  
DiscreYonary	
  
85%	
  
15%	
  
12.6%	
  
2.4%	
  
Growth	
  
Forecast	
  
2.5%	
  
14.3%	
  
9.4%	
  
47.2%	
  
Growth	
  
Points	
  
2.1%	
  
2.2%	
  
1.2%	
  
1.1%	
  
Holiday	
  2015	
  Sales	
  Growth	
  by	
  Channel	
  	
  
16
Sales and Traffic from Mobile Devices Showed
Robust Growth This Holiday
•  Mobile traffic grew by 40% year
over year on Thanksgiving,
Black Friday and Cyber Monday
•  Sales from mobile devices grew
by 47.2% and contributed to a
quarter of total consumer
discretionary spending growth
for holiday 2015
0%# 2%#
9%#
54%# 52%#
40%#
Thanksgiving###### Black#Friday#### Cyber#Monday#
Retail'Category'Visita/on'by'Pla3orm'
Desktop# Mobile#
Source:	
  comScore	
  
17
Home and Apparel Were the Top-Performing
E-Commerce Categories This Holiday
Absolute
Dollar Rank Product Category
Season to Date*
YoY Growth Rate
8
7
1
4
9
14
3
18
Home & Garden
Furniture, Appliances & Equipment
Apparel & Accessories
Consumer Packaged Goods
Event & Movie Tickets
Sports & Fitness
Consumer Electronics
Video Games
Very Strong
Strong
Strong
Strong
Strong
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
*Based on corresponding shopping days in 2014
Source:	
  comScore	
  
18
Top 16 DISRUPTORS in 2016
1.  IoT-DrivenPartnerships
2.  E-Commerce Players Go Offline
3.  Ready-to-Cook/Eat Economy
4.  Online Grocery Shopping
5.  Online Fashion Resale Marketplaces
Show Explosive Growth
6.  Samsung Pay Accelerates Contactless
Payment Adoption
7.  Sharing Economy
8.  A Subset of the Sharing Economy Is
the Rental Economy
9.  Subscription Economy Is Nibbling Away at
Traditional Retailers’ Sales
10.  Caring Economy Promotes Startups for Social Good
11.  Experience Economy Is Taking Away Retail Spending
12.  Home Furnishings Market Disrupted by E-Commerce
Pure Plays
13.  Jet.com
14.  Athletic Brands Investing in Fitness Apps
15.  Facial Recognition
16.  Lack of Disruptors: Victoria’s Secret
19
1. IoT-Driven Partnerships
•  Unprecedented cross-industry partnerships being
formed
•  Samsung and Microsoft developing IoT devices
based on Windows 10
•  Panasonic is partnering with Denver to transform
it into the first smart city
–  Create an energy-efficient hub
–  Solar technology, tele-medicine tech, traffic management
and security
•  Audi and Qualcomm are partnering to integrate
Qualcomm’s Snapdragon 602A to provide
cutting-edge connectivity technology
–  Infotainment, advanced smartphone connectivity,
navigation, voice quality and control features
20
1. IoT-Driven Partnerships
•  Ford is partnering with Amazon to integrate vehicles
with Echo, Amazon’s smart-home device
•  Intel is working with New Balance on an Android Wear
fitness watch that is due out next holiday season
•  IBM and Under Armour are integrating the Watson
supercomputer with the Connected Fitness network to
analyze data and provide real-time coaching on
health and fitness
•  Volvo pursued a partnership with Microsoft to
enhance connected-car strategies
–  The Microsoft Band can be pressed and told to start the car
heater, for example
21
2. E-Commerce Players Go Offline
•  Millennials prefer mono-brand brick-and-mortar stores, and they shift between
online and offline along the shopping journey
Retailer # of Stores
1
1
20
26
22
2. E-Commerce Players Go Offline
Case Study: Warby Parker
–  Targeting millennials
–  Started exploring offline with pop-ups and a
showroom in its NYC office; now expanding to
over 20 cities in the US
–  Warby Parker’s stores make more than $3,000
per sq. ft., putting the retailer in an elite category
with companies such as Tiffany and Apple
–  More than 85% of store shoppers will later visit
the website, increasing the chances for further
orders
23
3. Ready-to-Cook/Eat Economy
Disruptors: Blue Apron, Munchery, Plated, HelloFresh
•  Blue Apron was the fastest-growing US e-tailer in 2014, with
sales growing 550%, to $65 million
•  Healthier and cheaper than eating out and takeout
•  Convenience: ready-to-cook boxes and curated grocery
according to menus, delivered to your doorstep
•  US food market
–  $1.2 trillion, with $600 billion
in restaurants
–  Millennial focused
550% in 2014
24
4. Online Grocery Shopping
Disruptors: Instacart, AmazonFresh
•  Walmart Grocery Pickup
–  Order online
–  Pick up at the store
•  Amazon Prime Pantry, $5.99
–  Order everyday items online, filling the box
–  Ship to your home
–  Gamified promotion, slower shipping options in
exchange for free Pantry
•  Instacart: Personal Grocery Shopper/Multiple Stores
25
5. Online Fashion Resale Marketplaces Show Explosive Growth
Disruptors: thredUP, Tradesy, The RealReal, Poshmark,
Vestiaire Collective
•  Online resale industry is worth $34 billion in the US
•  SnobSwap estimates the market is growing at a 10%
compound annual rate
•  Mobile is hot in resale; over 45% of thredUP’s sales come from
mobile devices
•  Patagonia, Eileen Fisher and H&M launched resale programs
2011	
  
	
  
	
  	
  2012	
  
	
  
2013	
  
	
  
Source:	
  thredUP	
  
26
5. Online Fashion Resale Marketplaces Show Explosive Growth
Disruptors: thredUP, Tradesy, The RealReal,
Poshmark, Vestiaire Collective
•  Why Online Resale Marketplaces Took Off
–  Heavy venture capital investment in online
consignment industry (over $450 million)
–  Retail brands’ resale programs encouraged
consumers’ sustainable consumption habits
–  Consumers are convinced by great quality of
secondhand apparel bought via online platforms
–  Societal shift toward less ownership—the art of
decluttering
27
6. Samsung Pay Accelerates Contactless Payment
Adoption
Disruptor: Samsung Pay
•  Samsung Pay will accelerate the current
slow adoption of contactless payment
because it uses magnetic stripe
capability (MST) chips
–  MST works with new and older credit card
terminals—no additional investment required
–  Most widely accepted mobile wallet in the US
–  Consumers can incorporate loyalty cards into
Samsung Pay
–  In 2016: expanding to China, lower-priced
handsets and online transactions
Digital Payment Method Acceptance by North American Retailers
As	
  of	
  July	
  2015	
  	
  
Source:	
  Boston	
  Retail	
  Partners	
  
28
7. Sharing Economy
Disruptors: Uber, Airbnb, Lending Club,
WeWork
•  Valuations of sharing economy companies
have skyrocketed
•  Revenues are projected to catch up to
aggressive valuations:
Startup	
  	
   	
  	
   Industry	
   Valuaon	
  	
  
Uber	
  	
   	
  	
   Car	
  Sharing	
   $50.0	
  B	
  
Airbnb	
  	
   	
  	
   Peer-­‐to-­‐Peer	
  AccommodaYon	
  	
   $25.0	
  B	
  
Didi	
  Kuaidi	
  	
   Car	
  Sharing	
   $16.5	
  B	
  
WeWork	
  	
   	
  	
   Office	
  Sharing	
  	
   $10.0	
  B	
  
Lending	
  Club	
  	
   Peer-­‐to-­‐Peer	
  Lending	
   $7.4	
  B	
  
OLA	
  	
   	
  	
   Car	
  Sharing	
   $5.0	
  B	
  
Etsy	
  	
   	
  	
   Maker	
  Online	
  Marketplace	
   $3.5	
  B	
  
HomeAway	
  	
   Peer-­‐to-­‐Peer	
  AccommodaYon	
  	
   $3.0	
  B	
  
Lyc	
  	
   	
  	
   Car	
  Sharing	
   $2.5	
  B	
  
Instacart	
  	
   	
  	
   LogisYcs/Delivery	
  	
   $2.0	
  B	
  
Prosper	
  	
   	
  	
   Peer-­‐to-­‐Peer	
  Lending	
   $1.9	
  B	
  
TransferWise	
  	
   Finance	
  	
   $1.0	
  B	
  
Funding	
  Circle	
  	
   Finance	
  	
   $1.0	
  B	
  
$15 Billion
2013
$335 Billion
2025
CAGR: 29.5%
Source:	
  PwC	
  	
  
Source:	
  Company	
  reports/analysts’	
  es5mates	
  
29
8. A Subset of the Sharing Economy Is the Rental Economy
Disruptors: Airbnb, Zipcar, Netflix
•  Renting goods, services and space is
becoming more popular than owning
•  Renting saves consumers money and the
hassle of maintenance
•  Suitable for urban living and limited space
•  More environmentally friendly
•  Airbnb, Zipcar, Rent the Runway and
Le Tote are major disruptors
Leaders in The New Sharing Economy (and Year Launched)
30
9. Subscription Economy Is Nibbling Away at Traditional
Retailers’ Sales
Disruptors: Le Tote, Birchbox, BarkBox,
Pijon, Stitch Fix
•  Convenience and curated products for
consumers
•  Recurring revenue model for retailers
•  Element of self-gifting
•  Beauty is the biggest category
•  Fashion styling subscriptions are
becoming popular
31
10. Caring Economy Promotes Startups for Social Good
Disruptors: TOMS, Reformation, Warby Parker,
NOURI, SoapBox Soaps, Zady, GoodXChange
•  Social activism over self-indulgence
–  Consumers, especially Gen Z, are increasingly demanding
integrity from brands and retailers
•  Startups for social good apply market-based
strategies to achieve a social goal
–  TOMS, the shoe company, has a “one for one” business model
–  Reformation designs and manufactures sustainable apparel,
sourcing sustainable fabrics and vintage garments
32
11. Experience Economy Is Taking Away Retail Spending
Disruptors: Gigzolo, Zaptravel, OpenTable, Beautified
•  Consumers are spending less on apparel and more on experiences
•  78% of millennials prefer to spend money on an experience rather than buying
something desirable
•  Gigzolo: curated network of musicians and DJs available for hire for events
•  Zaptravel:
–  Digital travel agent
–  Uses a semantic search engine to scroll through its database
33
12. Home Furnishings Market Disrupted by E-Commerce Pure Plays
Disruptors: Wayfair, Hayneedle,
Art.com, Houzz
•  E-commerce pure plays are gaining
significant market share from omni-
channel home retailers
•  They offer more curated products and
good customer service
•  Houzz is an online home-remodeling
community of 35 million users
worldwide that connects homeowners
with design inspirations and home
professionals
US	
  Furniture	
  E-­‐Commerce	
  Outlook	
  
Source:	
  eMarketer/Forrester	
  Research	
  
$15	
  
$18	
  
$20	
  
$23	
  
$26	
  
$29	
  
$32	
  
2012	
   2013	
   2014	
   2015	
   2016	
   2017	
   2018F	
  
Sales	
  Forecast	
  (USD	
  Bil.)	
  
34
12. Home Furnishings Market Disruptor: Houzz
•  Founded in 2009, Houzz is aiming to
disrupt the home furnishings space
•  Houzz is an online home-remodeling
community that connects homeowners
with design inspirations and home
professionals
•  Its business model is driven by
community, content and commerce
•  Houzz has already attracted 35 million
users across 200 countries
35
13. Jet.com
(Pricing Model and Smart Cart Technology)
Disruptor: Jet.com
•  Smart Cart technology: savings increase
with each item added, based on the
location of the sellers and the buyer
•  Pulls costs out of the supply chain and
bumps them back to customers
•  A win-win situation for retailers and
consumers
•  On average, 9% cheaper than Amazon
and 6% cheaper than Walmart (Profitero)
+10%	
   +10%	
  
+6%	
  
+7%	
  
+11%	
  
+7%	
  
+12%	
  
+8%	
  
+7%	
  
+4%	
  
-­‐2%	
  
+7%	
  
+6%	
  
+10%	
  
Baby	
   Beauty	
   Electronics	
   Grocery	
   Household	
   Office	
  
Supplies	
  
Pet	
  Supplies	
  
Price	
  Comparison	
  of	
  Jet,	
  Amazon	
  and	
  Walmart	
  
Amazon	
  vs.	
  Jet	
   Walmart	
  vs.	
  Jet	
  
More	
  
Expensive	
  
than	
  Jet	
  
Less	
  
Expensive	
  
than	
  Jet	
  
36
13. Jet.com (Customers Can Feel Smart)
•  Website offers constant comparison and savings versus
Amazon.com
•  Also tracks cumulative savings on Jet.com
•  Customers can “see” savings by waiving return
privileges or through shipping synergies (Smart Cart)
•  Clean, simple website and mobile app
37
14. Athletic Brands Investing in Fitness Apps
Disruptor: Under Armour
•  Under Armour’s Connected Fitness Platform
–  Company launched its own fitness app, UA Record
–  Introduced UA HealthBox: set includes wristband, heart rate
monitor and scale, priced at $400
–  Under Armour owns the world’s largest digital health and fitness
community, with 130 million users
–  One of eight people purchasing a fitness device will be synced on
UA’s platform—Apple Watch and Google are not competing
2013	
  
	
  
2015	
  
	
  
2015	
  
	
  
2015	
  
$475 million (cash)
Feb. 2015
$85 million (cash)
Jan. 2015
Jul. 2015
(terms undisclosed)
$150 million (cash)
Dec. 2013
38
15. Facial Recognition
Disruptor: Intel
•  The global advanced Facial Recognition market expected growth: $2.77 Bil. in 2015 to $6.19 Bil. in 2020 (CAGR 17.4%)
•  30% of retailers are using facial recognition technology to track customers in stores (CSC)
•  Applications are increasing: health, wellness, beauty and advertising
–  Determine the thickness and application of makeup
–  Analyze in-store shopper data
•  In 2015, Walmart tested with FaceFirst:
–  Cameras check you in at location
–  Smartphone receives customized deals based on demographic
•  Intel released RealSense facial recognition technology in 2015
–  Consumer grade 3D cameras
–  Home usage: camera recognizes face to unlock front door
•  Challenges: Consumers are not especially comfortable with technology use in retail
39
16. Lack of Disruptors: Victoria’s Secret
Disruptor: Who will it be?
•  Victoria’s Secret’s Success Formula
–  Marketing via $12 million annual fashion show
–  A brand that creates celebrities
–  Benefits from athleisure/loungewear trend
–  Close attention to in-store experience
–  Wise international expansion strategy
–  20% e-commerce penetration
–  L Brands reported 8% holiday comps
Victoria’s Secret Store and Beauty Comparable
Store Sales
14%	
  
13%	
  
6%	
  
4%	
  
3%	
  
4%	
  
8%	
  
Q3	
  2010	
   Q3	
  2011	
   Q3	
  2012	
   Q3	
  2013	
   Q3	
  2014	
   Q3	
  2015	
   Q4	
  2015	
  
40
TOP FIVE RETAIL TECHNOLOGY TRENDS IN ASIA
1.  Uberification in Asia
2.  Streaming Media
3.  Fast Adoption of 3D Printing
4.  Inconsistent Mobile Payment Growth
5.  End of One-Child Policy in China Driving Retail
41
1. Uberification in Asia
•  On-demand services are available for
everything from accommodation to personal
chefs in Asia
•  Home Cooked is the most successful uberified
service in China
•  Uberified services faced legal and regulatory
challenges
•  Not expected to replace established industries
Service	
   Company	
  (Location)	
  
Accommodation	
   Hanintel	
  (S.	
  Korea),	
  Kozaza	
  (S.	
  Korea)	
  
Babysitting	
   Caregiver	
  Asia	
  (Singapore)	
  
Food	
  and	
  Drink	
  Delivery	
   Grain	
  (Singapore),	
  Home	
  Cooked	
  (China)	
  
Home	
  Cleaning	
   Whome365	
  (China)	
  
Home	
  Finder	
   AnAnZu	
  (China)	
  
Logistics	
  (Pickup	
  and	
  Delivery)	
   GogoVan	
  (Hong	
  Kong),	
  EasyVan	
  (Hong	
  Kong)	
  
Taxi	
  Service	
   Kuaidi	
  ONE	
  (China),	
  Ola	
  (India)	
  
	
  
Selected	
  Asian	
  Startups	
  that	
  Provide	
  Uber-­‐Like	
  Services	
  
42
2. Streaming Media
•  Netflix will expand into Hong Kong,
Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan in early
2016
•  HOOQ, a joint venture of Singtel, Sony
Pictures and Warner Bros., is competing
directly with Netflix
•  Alibaba recently acquired streaming media
company Youku Tudou for $4.4 billion
•  Growth driven by the rising affluence of
consumers, growing Internet penetration
and increasing smartphone ownership
Rank	
   Country	
   Minutes	
  per	
  Day	
  
2-­‐Year	
  Growth	
  
Rate	
  
1	
   China	
   67	
   5%	
  
2	
   Vietnam	
   61	
   84%	
  
3	
   Thailand	
   60	
   14%	
  
4	
   UAE	
   54	
   43%	
  
5	
   Hong	
  Kong	
   51	
   16%	
  
6	
   Philippines	
   51	
   74%	
  
Figure	
  2.	
  Time	
  Spent	
  Watching	
  Online	
  Video	
  
Top	
  Six	
  Countries	
  (4Q	
  2014)	
  
Source:	
  GlobalWebIndex	
  
43
3. Fast Adoption of 3D Printing
•  The Asia-Pacific region accounted for
27% of global 3D printer shipments in 2014
•  Key region for fast adoption due to
government support and extensive
industrial funding in important markets
•  China plans to invest $300 million in 3D
printing over three years
3D	
  Product	
  Shipments:	
  Market	
  Share	
  by	
  Region,	
  2014	
  	
  
Source:	
  Canalys/FBIC	
  Global	
  Retail	
  &	
  Technology	
  
AMERICAS	
  
42%	
  
ASIA-­‐PACIFIC	
  
27%	
  
ASIA-­‐PACIFIC	
  
27%	
  
44
4. Inconsistent Mobile Payment Growth
•  China is experiencing fast adoption of mobile
payment via Alipay and WeChat Wallet
•  South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan and
Singapore have the infrastructure, but are not yet
seeing substantial growth
•  Several banks in Singapore have launched mobile
payment services and new services using NFC on
USIM cards
Mobile	
  Payments	
  Readiness	
  Index:	
  	
  
Selected	
  Countries	
  in	
  Asia	
  
Source:	
  MasterCard	
  
Global	
  
Ranking	
   COUNTRY	
  
1 Singapore	
  
5 South	
  Korea	
  
6 Japan	
  
10 China	
  
11 Taiwan	
  
12 Philippines	
  
13 Malaysia	
  
14 Hong	
  Kong	
  
20 Thailand	
  
21 India	
  
45
5. End of One-Child Policy in China Driving Retail
•  Starting in 2016, couples in China
will be allowed to have two
children without risk of fine
•  Huatai Financial estimates that the
relaxation of the one-child policy
could create a $15 billion market
•  The second-child boom will benefit
several categories, including food
and dairy, healthcare, garments,
automotive and education
•  The first wave of the second-child
boom is expected in 2017
Source:	
  MasterCard	
  
46
THANK YOU!
deborahweinswig@fung1937.com
Cell: 917-655-6790
HK: 852.6119.1779
CHN: 86.186.1420.3016
@debweinswig

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The Future of Digital Retail by Deborah Weinswig at RISE 2016. Jan. 16, 2016

  • 1. 1 THE FUTURE OF DIGITAL RETAIL Deborah Weinswig Fung Business Intelligence Centre Global Retail & Technology deborahweinswig@fung1937.com Cell: 917-655-6790 @debweinswig
  • 2. 2 AGENDA •  About Fung Business Intelligent Centre (FBIC) •  Holiday 2015 Wrap-Up •  Top 16 Disruptors for 2016 •  Top Five Retail Technology Trends in Asia
  • 3. 3 Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) •  Established in 2000 and headquartered in Hong Kong •  FBIC serves as the knowledge bank and think tank for the Fung Group –  Collects and analyzes market data on sourcing, supply chains, distribution and retail –  Provides thought leadership on technology and other key issues •  New York–based Global Retail & Technology team –  Follows broader retail and technology trends –  Provides advice and consultancy services to colleagues and business partners of the Fung Group –  Builds collaborative knowledge communities
  • 4. 4 Futureproofing •  Anticipating future trends and developments •  Plan for future value and avoid obsolescence –  What problem are you trying to solve? –  How will the solution be used? –  How robust does it need to be? •  Ensure flexibility to manage changing formats and deployment patterns
  • 5. 5 OUR PARTNERSHIP WITH ACCELERATORS Alchemist Accelerator is an accelerator exclusively for startups whose revenue comes from enterprises, not consumers. CoCoon is a coworking space where entrepreneurs, creative talent, successful leaders and investors meet, collaborate and deliver results together. Member companies get access to networking opportunities, work space, a photography studio and mentors. Entrepreneurs Roundtable Accelerator (ERA) provides participant companies with an intensive four-month program, with the goal of helping early-stage companies progress rapidly into exciting, viable businesses. New York Fashion Tech Lab is an accelerator that is a result of a collaboration between the Partnership Fund for New York City, Springboard Enterprises and major fashion retailers. It focuses on early- and growth-stage companies. Plug and Play is a global innovation platform. It connects startups to corporations, and invests in over 100 companies every year. Its 360° ecosystem allows for remarkable innovation to take shape on an international scale. Techstars is a global ecosystem that empowers entrepreneurs to bring new technologies to market wherever they choose to build their business.
  • 6. 6 Fung Capital/FBIC Commerce Technology Landscape
  • 8. 8 HOLIDAY THEMES •  Highly promotional holiday was expected –  Women’s apparel bounced back, up 10%+, while men’s lagged –  Double-digit growth in furniture sales suggests consumers are willing to spend on big-ticket items (MasterCard Advisors) •  Earlier and later shopping –  In 2015, 1 in 4 shoppers bought a Christmas gift before Halloween –  Almost half did the majority of their shopping before Cyber Monday –  There was a surge in foot traffic in the final week of 2015 •  Bifurcation of spending –  Luxury slowed with the strong US dollar and fewer tourists spending Neiman  Marcus   Saks   Nordstrom   Bloomingdale’s   Ann  Taylor   Costco   Macy’s   Dillard’s   Supervalu   JCPenney   Kohl’s   Kroger   Safeway   Drugstores     (CVS/Walgreens)   BJ’s/Sam’s  Club   Target   Kmart/Sears   Walmart   Primark   Dollar  Stores     Aldi/Lidl    
  • 9. 9 NRF Reported a Solid 3% For Holiday 2015 $529   $554   $569   $584   $608   $626   5.2%   4.6%   2.7%   2.7%   4.1%   3.0%   0%   2%   4%   6%   8%   10%   $480   $520   $560   $600   $640   2010   2011   2012   2013   2014   2015   Growth  Rate   Holiday  Retail  Sales  (USD  Bil.)   Holiday  Retail  Sales   Growth  Rate  
  • 10. 10 2015 Holiday Results •  US retail sales slipped 0.1% month over month in December after a revised 0.4% increase in November , according to the Commerce Department •  Holiday spending between Black Friday and Christmas Eve was up 7.9% year over year, according to MasterCard Advisors’ SpendingPulse •  Physical store still important: 91% holiday shoppers shopped for holiday at stores, 32% purchased online and picked up in stores (ICSC) •  Holiday online sales rose by 20% year over year •  Free shipping is the new normal—Demandware reported that 88% of US online retail purchases qualified for free shipping on Cyber Monday •  Amazon reported a massive 2015 holiday season; it added 3 million new Amazon Prime subscribers and shipped more than 200 million items for free to Prime members •  Almost 70% of Amazon customers shopped on a mobile device during the holiday period •  comScore reported that US retail e-commerce spending from desktop computers reached $35.4 billion during the first 36 days of the November–December 2015 holiday season, marking a 6% increase versus the same period in 2014
  • 11. 11 MIXED DECEMBER COMPS Macy’s: (4.7)% combined November–December comps, though digital sales rose by about 25% “About 80% of our year-over-year declines in comparable sales can be attributed to shortfalls in cold- weather goods such as coats, sweaters, boots, hats, gloves and scarves.” – CEO Terry Lundgren JCPenney: November–December comps +3.9%, lapping +3.7% last year “Despite unprecedented warm weather that significantly affected apparel sales, our focus of private brands, omni-channel execution and a compelling gift-giving selection resulted in strong holiday sales.” – CEO Marvin Ellison L Brands: December comps +8% “Best December ever.” – CEO Les Wexner Ascena Retail Group: December comps (4)% “The holiday period for specialty retail was marked by soft traffic and unseasonably warm conditions, and was highly competitive. Excluding the planned decline at Justice, consolidated comparable sales were flat to last year.” – CEO David Jaffe
  • 12. 12 Mixed Holiday Results—Final Tally Still to Come •  US retail sales were up 2.9% for the week ended January 2 and up 2.2% for December, according to Johnson Redbook •  RetailNext reported that December US traffic dropped by 5.8%, and that it dropped by 6.4% in the November– December holiday shopping period Sales   Traffic   Conversion   Average   Transacon     Value   Sales  Per     Shopper   Transacons   %  Returns   December   -­‐0.4%   -­‐5.8%   0.4%   3.6%   5.7%   -­‐3.8%   -­‐0.3%   Nov/Dec   -­‐2.0%   -­‐6.4%   0.3%   3.3%   4.8%   -­‐5.0%   -­‐0.2%   Thanksgiving   -­‐4.7%   -­‐5.1%   -­‐0.5%   3.1%   0.3%   -­‐7.0%   -­‐0.1%   November   -­‐5.6%   -­‐7.6%   0.0%   3.2%   2.3%   -­‐8.3%   0.1%   October   -­‐12.2%   -­‐10.7%   -­‐0.7%   3.8%   -­‐1.1%   -­‐15.1%   0.2%   September   -­‐8.7%   -­‐8.1%   -­‐0.1%   1.1%   -­‐0.5%   -­‐9.6%   0.1%   August   -­‐7.3%   -­‐9.9%   0.2%   1.6%   2.9%   -­‐8.7%   0.2%   Source:  RetailNext  
  • 13. 13 Favorable Macro Backdrop •  Lower gas prices continue to provide a silver lining for US consumers •  Inflation/Deflation –  Apparel prices remain deflationary –  Food prices fell into deflationary range in November Indicator    Period   2015   2014   YoY  %  Chg.     Gas  Price  (USD/Gallon)   Avg.     (Nov./Dec.)   $2.10     $2.70     -­‐22%   Per  Capita  Disposable     Personal  Income   Nov.   $42,274     $40,996     3.1%   Savings  Rate   Nov.   5.5%   4.6%   90  bps   S&P/Case-­‐Shiller  20-­‐City   Composite  Home  Price  Index   Oct.   182.8   173.2   5.6%   Unemployment  Rate   4Q   5.0%   5.7%   (70)  bps   University  of  Michigan  Consumer   SenYment   Avg.     (Nov./Dec.)   92.0   91.2   0.8%   Source:  Haver  Analy5cs    
  • 14. 14 Warm Weather in Key US Markets Affects Sales of Winter Categories •  Warmest winter in over 55 years •  Increased traffic to retailers and restaurants •  Left manufacturers with extra inventory •  Demand for winter goods decreased, but consumers still spent on alternate goods over the holidays •  Unprecedented spending on springtime products Source:  Planaly5cs  
  • 15. 15 E-Commerce Sales Delivered Strong Results •  First Data recorded a 9.4% total spending increase for Thanksgiving and Black Friday •  ShopperTrak reported a 10% decline in in-store sales during Thanksgiving weekend •  MasterCard SpendingPulse said e- commerce sales were up 20% this holiday •  RetailNext reported that US store sales were down 4.7% on a 5.1% decline in store traffic Source:  comScore  and  ShopperTrak       Brick  and   Mortar   Total  Digital   Desktop   Mobile   %  of  Total   Consumer   DiscreYonary   85%   15%   12.6%   2.4%   Growth   Forecast   2.5%   14.3%   9.4%   47.2%   Growth   Points   2.1%   2.2%   1.2%   1.1%   Holiday  2015  Sales  Growth  by  Channel    
  • 16. 16 Sales and Traffic from Mobile Devices Showed Robust Growth This Holiday •  Mobile traffic grew by 40% year over year on Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday •  Sales from mobile devices grew by 47.2% and contributed to a quarter of total consumer discretionary spending growth for holiday 2015 0%# 2%# 9%# 54%# 52%# 40%# Thanksgiving###### Black#Friday#### Cyber#Monday# Retail'Category'Visita/on'by'Pla3orm' Desktop# Mobile# Source:  comScore  
  • 17. 17 Home and Apparel Were the Top-Performing E-Commerce Categories This Holiday Absolute Dollar Rank Product Category Season to Date* YoY Growth Rate 8 7 1 4 9 14 3 18 Home & Garden Furniture, Appliances & Equipment Apparel & Accessories Consumer Packaged Goods Event & Movie Tickets Sports & Fitness Consumer Electronics Video Games Very Strong Strong Strong Strong Strong Moderate Moderate Moderate *Based on corresponding shopping days in 2014 Source:  comScore  
  • 18. 18 Top 16 DISRUPTORS in 2016 1.  IoT-DrivenPartnerships 2.  E-Commerce Players Go Offline 3.  Ready-to-Cook/Eat Economy 4.  Online Grocery Shopping 5.  Online Fashion Resale Marketplaces Show Explosive Growth 6.  Samsung Pay Accelerates Contactless Payment Adoption 7.  Sharing Economy 8.  A Subset of the Sharing Economy Is the Rental Economy 9.  Subscription Economy Is Nibbling Away at Traditional Retailers’ Sales 10.  Caring Economy Promotes Startups for Social Good 11.  Experience Economy Is Taking Away Retail Spending 12.  Home Furnishings Market Disrupted by E-Commerce Pure Plays 13.  Jet.com 14.  Athletic Brands Investing in Fitness Apps 15.  Facial Recognition 16.  Lack of Disruptors: Victoria’s Secret
  • 19. 19 1. IoT-Driven Partnerships •  Unprecedented cross-industry partnerships being formed •  Samsung and Microsoft developing IoT devices based on Windows 10 •  Panasonic is partnering with Denver to transform it into the first smart city –  Create an energy-efficient hub –  Solar technology, tele-medicine tech, traffic management and security •  Audi and Qualcomm are partnering to integrate Qualcomm’s Snapdragon 602A to provide cutting-edge connectivity technology –  Infotainment, advanced smartphone connectivity, navigation, voice quality and control features
  • 20. 20 1. IoT-Driven Partnerships •  Ford is partnering with Amazon to integrate vehicles with Echo, Amazon’s smart-home device •  Intel is working with New Balance on an Android Wear fitness watch that is due out next holiday season •  IBM and Under Armour are integrating the Watson supercomputer with the Connected Fitness network to analyze data and provide real-time coaching on health and fitness •  Volvo pursued a partnership with Microsoft to enhance connected-car strategies –  The Microsoft Band can be pressed and told to start the car heater, for example
  • 21. 21 2. E-Commerce Players Go Offline •  Millennials prefer mono-brand brick-and-mortar stores, and they shift between online and offline along the shopping journey Retailer # of Stores 1 1 20 26
  • 22. 22 2. E-Commerce Players Go Offline Case Study: Warby Parker –  Targeting millennials –  Started exploring offline with pop-ups and a showroom in its NYC office; now expanding to over 20 cities in the US –  Warby Parker’s stores make more than $3,000 per sq. ft., putting the retailer in an elite category with companies such as Tiffany and Apple –  More than 85% of store shoppers will later visit the website, increasing the chances for further orders
  • 23. 23 3. Ready-to-Cook/Eat Economy Disruptors: Blue Apron, Munchery, Plated, HelloFresh •  Blue Apron was the fastest-growing US e-tailer in 2014, with sales growing 550%, to $65 million •  Healthier and cheaper than eating out and takeout •  Convenience: ready-to-cook boxes and curated grocery according to menus, delivered to your doorstep •  US food market –  $1.2 trillion, with $600 billion in restaurants –  Millennial focused 550% in 2014
  • 24. 24 4. Online Grocery Shopping Disruptors: Instacart, AmazonFresh •  Walmart Grocery Pickup –  Order online –  Pick up at the store •  Amazon Prime Pantry, $5.99 –  Order everyday items online, filling the box –  Ship to your home –  Gamified promotion, slower shipping options in exchange for free Pantry •  Instacart: Personal Grocery Shopper/Multiple Stores
  • 25. 25 5. Online Fashion Resale Marketplaces Show Explosive Growth Disruptors: thredUP, Tradesy, The RealReal, Poshmark, Vestiaire Collective •  Online resale industry is worth $34 billion in the US •  SnobSwap estimates the market is growing at a 10% compound annual rate •  Mobile is hot in resale; over 45% of thredUP’s sales come from mobile devices •  Patagonia, Eileen Fisher and H&M launched resale programs 2011        2012     2013     Source:  thredUP  
  • 26. 26 5. Online Fashion Resale Marketplaces Show Explosive Growth Disruptors: thredUP, Tradesy, The RealReal, Poshmark, Vestiaire Collective •  Why Online Resale Marketplaces Took Off –  Heavy venture capital investment in online consignment industry (over $450 million) –  Retail brands’ resale programs encouraged consumers’ sustainable consumption habits –  Consumers are convinced by great quality of secondhand apparel bought via online platforms –  Societal shift toward less ownership—the art of decluttering
  • 27. 27 6. Samsung Pay Accelerates Contactless Payment Adoption Disruptor: Samsung Pay •  Samsung Pay will accelerate the current slow adoption of contactless payment because it uses magnetic stripe capability (MST) chips –  MST works with new and older credit card terminals—no additional investment required –  Most widely accepted mobile wallet in the US –  Consumers can incorporate loyalty cards into Samsung Pay –  In 2016: expanding to China, lower-priced handsets and online transactions Digital Payment Method Acceptance by North American Retailers As  of  July  2015     Source:  Boston  Retail  Partners  
  • 28. 28 7. Sharing Economy Disruptors: Uber, Airbnb, Lending Club, WeWork •  Valuations of sharing economy companies have skyrocketed •  Revenues are projected to catch up to aggressive valuations: Startup         Industry   Valuaon     Uber         Car  Sharing   $50.0  B   Airbnb         Peer-­‐to-­‐Peer  AccommodaYon     $25.0  B   Didi  Kuaidi     Car  Sharing   $16.5  B   WeWork         Office  Sharing     $10.0  B   Lending  Club     Peer-­‐to-­‐Peer  Lending   $7.4  B   OLA         Car  Sharing   $5.0  B   Etsy         Maker  Online  Marketplace   $3.5  B   HomeAway     Peer-­‐to-­‐Peer  AccommodaYon     $3.0  B   Lyc         Car  Sharing   $2.5  B   Instacart         LogisYcs/Delivery     $2.0  B   Prosper         Peer-­‐to-­‐Peer  Lending   $1.9  B   TransferWise     Finance     $1.0  B   Funding  Circle     Finance     $1.0  B   $15 Billion 2013 $335 Billion 2025 CAGR: 29.5% Source:  PwC     Source:  Company  reports/analysts’  es5mates  
  • 29. 29 8. A Subset of the Sharing Economy Is the Rental Economy Disruptors: Airbnb, Zipcar, Netflix •  Renting goods, services and space is becoming more popular than owning •  Renting saves consumers money and the hassle of maintenance •  Suitable for urban living and limited space •  More environmentally friendly •  Airbnb, Zipcar, Rent the Runway and Le Tote are major disruptors Leaders in The New Sharing Economy (and Year Launched)
  • 30. 30 9. Subscription Economy Is Nibbling Away at Traditional Retailers’ Sales Disruptors: Le Tote, Birchbox, BarkBox, Pijon, Stitch Fix •  Convenience and curated products for consumers •  Recurring revenue model for retailers •  Element of self-gifting •  Beauty is the biggest category •  Fashion styling subscriptions are becoming popular
  • 31. 31 10. Caring Economy Promotes Startups for Social Good Disruptors: TOMS, Reformation, Warby Parker, NOURI, SoapBox Soaps, Zady, GoodXChange •  Social activism over self-indulgence –  Consumers, especially Gen Z, are increasingly demanding integrity from brands and retailers •  Startups for social good apply market-based strategies to achieve a social goal –  TOMS, the shoe company, has a “one for one” business model –  Reformation designs and manufactures sustainable apparel, sourcing sustainable fabrics and vintage garments
  • 32. 32 11. Experience Economy Is Taking Away Retail Spending Disruptors: Gigzolo, Zaptravel, OpenTable, Beautified •  Consumers are spending less on apparel and more on experiences •  78% of millennials prefer to spend money on an experience rather than buying something desirable •  Gigzolo: curated network of musicians and DJs available for hire for events •  Zaptravel: –  Digital travel agent –  Uses a semantic search engine to scroll through its database
  • 33. 33 12. Home Furnishings Market Disrupted by E-Commerce Pure Plays Disruptors: Wayfair, Hayneedle, Art.com, Houzz •  E-commerce pure plays are gaining significant market share from omni- channel home retailers •  They offer more curated products and good customer service •  Houzz is an online home-remodeling community of 35 million users worldwide that connects homeowners with design inspirations and home professionals US  Furniture  E-­‐Commerce  Outlook   Source:  eMarketer/Forrester  Research   $15   $18   $20   $23   $26   $29   $32   2012   2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   2018F   Sales  Forecast  (USD  Bil.)  
  • 34. 34 12. Home Furnishings Market Disruptor: Houzz •  Founded in 2009, Houzz is aiming to disrupt the home furnishings space •  Houzz is an online home-remodeling community that connects homeowners with design inspirations and home professionals •  Its business model is driven by community, content and commerce •  Houzz has already attracted 35 million users across 200 countries
  • 35. 35 13. Jet.com (Pricing Model and Smart Cart Technology) Disruptor: Jet.com •  Smart Cart technology: savings increase with each item added, based on the location of the sellers and the buyer •  Pulls costs out of the supply chain and bumps them back to customers •  A win-win situation for retailers and consumers •  On average, 9% cheaper than Amazon and 6% cheaper than Walmart (Profitero) +10%   +10%   +6%   +7%   +11%   +7%   +12%   +8%   +7%   +4%   -­‐2%   +7%   +6%   +10%   Baby   Beauty   Electronics   Grocery   Household   Office   Supplies   Pet  Supplies   Price  Comparison  of  Jet,  Amazon  and  Walmart   Amazon  vs.  Jet   Walmart  vs.  Jet   More   Expensive   than  Jet   Less   Expensive   than  Jet  
  • 36. 36 13. Jet.com (Customers Can Feel Smart) •  Website offers constant comparison and savings versus Amazon.com •  Also tracks cumulative savings on Jet.com •  Customers can “see” savings by waiving return privileges or through shipping synergies (Smart Cart) •  Clean, simple website and mobile app
  • 37. 37 14. Athletic Brands Investing in Fitness Apps Disruptor: Under Armour •  Under Armour’s Connected Fitness Platform –  Company launched its own fitness app, UA Record –  Introduced UA HealthBox: set includes wristband, heart rate monitor and scale, priced at $400 –  Under Armour owns the world’s largest digital health and fitness community, with 130 million users –  One of eight people purchasing a fitness device will be synced on UA’s platform—Apple Watch and Google are not competing 2013     2015     2015     2015   $475 million (cash) Feb. 2015 $85 million (cash) Jan. 2015 Jul. 2015 (terms undisclosed) $150 million (cash) Dec. 2013
  • 38. 38 15. Facial Recognition Disruptor: Intel •  The global advanced Facial Recognition market expected growth: $2.77 Bil. in 2015 to $6.19 Bil. in 2020 (CAGR 17.4%) •  30% of retailers are using facial recognition technology to track customers in stores (CSC) •  Applications are increasing: health, wellness, beauty and advertising –  Determine the thickness and application of makeup –  Analyze in-store shopper data •  In 2015, Walmart tested with FaceFirst: –  Cameras check you in at location –  Smartphone receives customized deals based on demographic •  Intel released RealSense facial recognition technology in 2015 –  Consumer grade 3D cameras –  Home usage: camera recognizes face to unlock front door •  Challenges: Consumers are not especially comfortable with technology use in retail
  • 39. 39 16. Lack of Disruptors: Victoria’s Secret Disruptor: Who will it be? •  Victoria’s Secret’s Success Formula –  Marketing via $12 million annual fashion show –  A brand that creates celebrities –  Benefits from athleisure/loungewear trend –  Close attention to in-store experience –  Wise international expansion strategy –  20% e-commerce penetration –  L Brands reported 8% holiday comps Victoria’s Secret Store and Beauty Comparable Store Sales 14%   13%   6%   4%   3%   4%   8%   Q3  2010   Q3  2011   Q3  2012   Q3  2013   Q3  2014   Q3  2015   Q4  2015  
  • 40. 40 TOP FIVE RETAIL TECHNOLOGY TRENDS IN ASIA 1.  Uberification in Asia 2.  Streaming Media 3.  Fast Adoption of 3D Printing 4.  Inconsistent Mobile Payment Growth 5.  End of One-Child Policy in China Driving Retail
  • 41. 41 1. Uberification in Asia •  On-demand services are available for everything from accommodation to personal chefs in Asia •  Home Cooked is the most successful uberified service in China •  Uberified services faced legal and regulatory challenges •  Not expected to replace established industries Service   Company  (Location)   Accommodation   Hanintel  (S.  Korea),  Kozaza  (S.  Korea)   Babysitting   Caregiver  Asia  (Singapore)   Food  and  Drink  Delivery   Grain  (Singapore),  Home  Cooked  (China)   Home  Cleaning   Whome365  (China)   Home  Finder   AnAnZu  (China)   Logistics  (Pickup  and  Delivery)   GogoVan  (Hong  Kong),  EasyVan  (Hong  Kong)   Taxi  Service   Kuaidi  ONE  (China),  Ola  (India)     Selected  Asian  Startups  that  Provide  Uber-­‐Like  Services  
  • 42. 42 2. Streaming Media •  Netflix will expand into Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan in early 2016 •  HOOQ, a joint venture of Singtel, Sony Pictures and Warner Bros., is competing directly with Netflix •  Alibaba recently acquired streaming media company Youku Tudou for $4.4 billion •  Growth driven by the rising affluence of consumers, growing Internet penetration and increasing smartphone ownership Rank   Country   Minutes  per  Day   2-­‐Year  Growth   Rate   1   China   67   5%   2   Vietnam   61   84%   3   Thailand   60   14%   4   UAE   54   43%   5   Hong  Kong   51   16%   6   Philippines   51   74%   Figure  2.  Time  Spent  Watching  Online  Video   Top  Six  Countries  (4Q  2014)   Source:  GlobalWebIndex  
  • 43. 43 3. Fast Adoption of 3D Printing •  The Asia-Pacific region accounted for 27% of global 3D printer shipments in 2014 •  Key region for fast adoption due to government support and extensive industrial funding in important markets •  China plans to invest $300 million in 3D printing over three years 3D  Product  Shipments:  Market  Share  by  Region,  2014     Source:  Canalys/FBIC  Global  Retail  &  Technology   AMERICAS   42%   ASIA-­‐PACIFIC   27%   ASIA-­‐PACIFIC   27%  
  • 44. 44 4. Inconsistent Mobile Payment Growth •  China is experiencing fast adoption of mobile payment via Alipay and WeChat Wallet •  South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore have the infrastructure, but are not yet seeing substantial growth •  Several banks in Singapore have launched mobile payment services and new services using NFC on USIM cards Mobile  Payments  Readiness  Index:     Selected  Countries  in  Asia   Source:  MasterCard   Global   Ranking   COUNTRY   1 Singapore   5 South  Korea   6 Japan   10 China   11 Taiwan   12 Philippines   13 Malaysia   14 Hong  Kong   20 Thailand   21 India  
  • 45. 45 5. End of One-Child Policy in China Driving Retail •  Starting in 2016, couples in China will be allowed to have two children without risk of fine •  Huatai Financial estimates that the relaxation of the one-child policy could create a $15 billion market •  The second-child boom will benefit several categories, including food and dairy, healthcare, garments, automotive and education •  The first wave of the second-child boom is expected in 2017 Source:  MasterCard  
  • 46. 46 THANK YOU! deborahweinswig@fung1937.com Cell: 917-655-6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CHN: 86.186.1420.3016 @debweinswig