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WEBCAST
2015 Back-To-School Outlook
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
2015 BTS/BTC Calendar
September 2014
Labor Day: September 1
Public Schools Open: September 4
Rosh Hashana: September 24-26
September 2015
Labor Day: September 7
Public Schools Open: September 9
Rosh Hashana: September 13-15
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•  Summer ends 1 week later in 2015
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Overview – Too Much Stuff and No Excitement
•  Consumer purchase mentality—What do we need now? A Just in
Time Shopper
-  Macy’s reacts to this shopping behavior by rolling out same-day
delivery to additional stores
•  Look for traditional shopping seasons to continue to blur
-  Black Friday style sales in July
•  Harder for retailers to post sales and earnings gains.
-  Continued IT investments—Mobile, Click & Collect, Personalization,
Omnichannel—all mandatory to maintain share
-  Most categories hovering in deflationary territory
3
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Overview – Makes Retail a Promotional Bonanza
•  Meanwhile the consumer wins
•  BTS needs:
-  Shoes and shorts
-  Texts and backpacks
4
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Current Retail Business Environment
1.  BTS Outlook
2.  Year-Over-Year Results
3.  Off-Price Retailing Beating Counterparts
4.  Gas Did Not Stay Below $2 per Gallon
5.  June US Retail Sales Mixed, Showing Slow Recovery
6.  Continued Record Low Jobless Claims
7.  Consumer Spending Varies by Category
8.  Promotional Page
9.  2Q Earnings Scorecard
10.  BTS 2015 Fashion Trends
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
1. BTS Outlooks
•  National Retail Federation(NRF) combined Back-to-School/
Back-to-College (BTS/BTC) spending to drop 9.3% in 2015 to
$67.95 billion
-  Electronics, the largest category, is expected to
decrease16.8%
-  Dorm furnishing is projected to
rise 18.4% to $6.05 billion.
•  The average family with children in
-  Grades K-12 plans to spend $630.36, a 5.8% decline
-  College plans to spend $899, a 1.9% decrease
6
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
1. BTS Outlooks (Cont’d)
•  eMarketer sees retail sales growth of 4.6% in the prime BTS selling
season
-  14.4% gain in ecommerce sales to $56.35 billion in BTS
•  Brand Keys 21st Survey has BTS spending flat at $650 per
household with k-12 age children
•  FBIC Global Retail & Technology see BTS sales growth in tandem
with the recent June sales report, 0.1% or flat year-over-year
7
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
2. Year-Over-Year BTS/BTC
8
BTS	
   2014	
   2015E	
  
YoY%	
  
Change	
  
Total	
  ($B)	
   26.54	
   24.87	
   -­‐6.3%	
  
Total	
  per	
  household	
  (USD)	
   $669	
   $630	
   -­‐5.8%	
  
Selected	
  Categories	
  per	
  
household	
   2014	
   2015E	
  
YoY%	
  
Change	
  
Shoes	
   124	
   118	
   -­‐5.5%	
  
Clothing	
  	
   231	
   218	
   -­‐5.8%	
  
School	
  Supplies	
   102	
   98	
   -­‐3.4%	
  
Electronics	
   212	
   197	
   -­‐7.1%	
  
BTC	
   2014	
   2015E	
  
YoY%	
  
Change	
  
Total	
  ($B)	
   48.40	
   43.09	
   -­‐11.0%	
  
Total	
  per	
  household	
  (USD)	
   $916	
   $899	
   -­‐1.9%	
  
Selected	
  Categories	
  per	
  	
  
household	
   2014	
   2015E	
  
YoY%	
  
Change	
  
Shoes	
   78	
   73	
   -­‐6.2%	
  
Clothing	
  	
   139	
   137	
   -­‐1.3%	
  
School	
  Supplies	
   75	
   67	
   -­‐10.8%	
  
Electronics	
   244	
   207	
   -­‐15.0%	
  
2014 2015E YoY % Change
Total BTS/BTC ($B) 74.94 67.95 -9.3
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
3. Off-Price Retailing Beating Counterparts
9
0.6	
   0	
  
-­‐13.8	
  
6	
  
7.9	
  
18.7	
  
-­‐20	
  
-­‐15	
  
-­‐10	
  
-­‐5	
  
0	
  
5	
  
10	
  
15	
  
20	
  
25	
  
Macy's	
   Kohls	
   Sears	
   TJX	
   Big	
  Lots	
   Burlington	
  
FY13	
  Sales	
  %	
  
FY14	
  Sales	
  %	
  
FY15	
  Sales	
  %	
  
YoY% change in Sales: Off-Price
Retailers Vs. Specialty Retailers
•  In January 2015, off-price retailers TJX Companies and Ross Stores
reported a 6% and 7.9% in net sales, while Macy’s and Kohl’s registered
sales growth of 0.6% and 0%.
•  Efficient inventory management/turnover and low-cost structure allow for
higher margins
•  Outperforming high-end retailers because consumers are still cautious
with their discretionary income: 20 to 60% discounts on branded goods.
•  Macy’s opened discount store to compete: Macy’s Backstage
%
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
4. Gas Did Not Stay Below $2 per Gallon
•  The gradual decline in oil prices is likely to continue in the second
half of 2015, and gas should average $2.49 per gallon
Through July 18, 2015
Regular grade average
Source: US Energy Information Administration
2.6
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Weekly US Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices:
USD per Gallon$
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
5. June US Retail Sales Mixed, Showing Slow Recovery
•  Total US monthly retail sales, excluding motor vehicles and restaurants,
were mixed. The (YoY) change was 0.1%
•  Retail sales were softer than expected in June, following a strong
performance in May
•  The NRF lowers 2015 forecasted growth to 3.5% from 4.1%, reflecting weak 1H
Through	
  June	
  30,	
  2015	
  
Source:	
  Bureau	
  	
  of	
  Economic	
  Analysis	
  	
  
US Monthly Retail Sales Ex-Auto YoY%
0.1
(10)
(5)
0
5
10
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
6. Continued Record Low Jobless Claims
•  Unemployment rate declined to 5.3% from 5.5% in May
•  Nonfarm payrolls increased 223,000 in June
•  Applications for jobless benefits reported a seasonally adjusted 267,000,
in the week ending July 25
•  US has added an average of 208,000 jobs each month
•  All good news and NOT showing up in retail sales
Through	
  June	
  30,	
  2015	
  
Source:	
  Bureau	
  of	
  Labor	
  StaAsAcs	
  
Seasonally	
  Adjusted	
  	
  
	
  
US Unemployment Rate %
5.3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
-0.4
-0.2
0.2
0.7
0.1
1
-1.3
-1.6
-1.5
3
7.7
1.3
1.2
6.6
-0.4
-1.4
4.1
1.9
Non-store Retailers
Restaurants & Bars
Health & Personal Care
General Merchandise
Sporting Goods, Books & Music
Electronics & Appliances
Building Materials & Garden eq. Suppliers
Furniture & Home Goods
Clothing & Accessories
YoY% MoM%
7. Consumer Spending Varies by Category
Through	
  June	
  30,	
  2015	
  
Source:	
  Bureau	
  	
  of	
  Economic	
  Analysis	
  	
  
US Monthly Retail Sales by Category YoY%
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
8. BTS/BTC Promotions
•  All retailers are
participating in
promotional activities
across platforms
-  In-store
-  On-line
-  Social media
-  Mobile
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
9. 2Q Earnings Scorecard
•  354 companies reported 2Q through 7/31; the blended earnings decline
is 1.3%. The last time the index reported a YoY earnings decline was 3Q
2012 (-1.0%).
•  Positive earnings surprises below historic average but Consumer
Discretionary sector are reporting the largest upside vs. estimates (+8.8%)
-  Amazon (0.19 vs. -0.15),
-  Carnival ($0.25 vs. $0.16),
-  Netflix ($0.06 vs. $0.04),
-  Under Armour ($0.07 vs. $0.05)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
S&P
Earnings
Consumer
Disc.
Earnings
S&P
Revenue
Consumer
Disc
Revenue
0.27 0.29
0.48 0.46
0.73 0.71
0.52 0.54
Above
Below
Q2 2015 Earnings/Revenues
Source: FactSet Research Systems 2015
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
10. BTS 2015 Fashion Trends
•  All about denim
•  Leggings rule!
16
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Upcoming Events
•  Fashion Footwear Association of New York Shoe Show: New York,
Aug. 4-6
•  Magic: Las Vegas, Aug. 17-19
•  NACDS Total Store Expo: Denver, CO, Aug. 22-25
•  ICSC Florida Conference: Orlando, FL. Aug. 30-Sept.1
•  World Retail Congress: Rome, Italy. Sept. 8-10
•  Goldman Sachs 22nd Annual Global Retail Conference: New
York, Sept. 9-10
•  The Retail Conference 2015: London, UK. Sept. 16
17
THANK YOU!

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Q2 2015 Review & BTS webcast with Planalytics Aug. 11 2015

  • 2. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 2015 BTS/BTC Calendar September 2014 Labor Day: September 1 Public Schools Open: September 4 Rosh Hashana: September 24-26 September 2015 Labor Day: September 7 Public Schools Open: September 9 Rosh Hashana: September 13-15 Su   Mo   Tu   We   Th   Fr   Sa       1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   24   25   26   27   28   29   30                   Su   Mo   Tu   We   Th   Fr   Sa           1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   24   25   26   27   28   29   30               •  Summer ends 1 week later in 2015
  • 3. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Overview – Too Much Stuff and No Excitement •  Consumer purchase mentality—What do we need now? A Just in Time Shopper -  Macy’s reacts to this shopping behavior by rolling out same-day delivery to additional stores •  Look for traditional shopping seasons to continue to blur -  Black Friday style sales in July •  Harder for retailers to post sales and earnings gains. -  Continued IT investments—Mobile, Click & Collect, Personalization, Omnichannel—all mandatory to maintain share -  Most categories hovering in deflationary territory 3
  • 4. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Overview – Makes Retail a Promotional Bonanza •  Meanwhile the consumer wins •  BTS needs: -  Shoes and shorts -  Texts and backpacks 4
  • 5. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Current Retail Business Environment 1.  BTS Outlook 2.  Year-Over-Year Results 3.  Off-Price Retailing Beating Counterparts 4.  Gas Did Not Stay Below $2 per Gallon 5.  June US Retail Sales Mixed, Showing Slow Recovery 6.  Continued Record Low Jobless Claims 7.  Consumer Spending Varies by Category 8.  Promotional Page 9.  2Q Earnings Scorecard 10.  BTS 2015 Fashion Trends
  • 6. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 1. BTS Outlooks •  National Retail Federation(NRF) combined Back-to-School/ Back-to-College (BTS/BTC) spending to drop 9.3% in 2015 to $67.95 billion -  Electronics, the largest category, is expected to decrease16.8% -  Dorm furnishing is projected to rise 18.4% to $6.05 billion. •  The average family with children in -  Grades K-12 plans to spend $630.36, a 5.8% decline -  College plans to spend $899, a 1.9% decrease 6
  • 7. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 1. BTS Outlooks (Cont’d) •  eMarketer sees retail sales growth of 4.6% in the prime BTS selling season -  14.4% gain in ecommerce sales to $56.35 billion in BTS •  Brand Keys 21st Survey has BTS spending flat at $650 per household with k-12 age children •  FBIC Global Retail & Technology see BTS sales growth in tandem with the recent June sales report, 0.1% or flat year-over-year 7
  • 8. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 2. Year-Over-Year BTS/BTC 8 BTS   2014   2015E   YoY%   Change   Total  ($B)   26.54   24.87   -­‐6.3%   Total  per  household  (USD)   $669   $630   -­‐5.8%   Selected  Categories  per   household   2014   2015E   YoY%   Change   Shoes   124   118   -­‐5.5%   Clothing     231   218   -­‐5.8%   School  Supplies   102   98   -­‐3.4%   Electronics   212   197   -­‐7.1%   BTC   2014   2015E   YoY%   Change   Total  ($B)   48.40   43.09   -­‐11.0%   Total  per  household  (USD)   $916   $899   -­‐1.9%   Selected  Categories  per     household   2014   2015E   YoY%   Change   Shoes   78   73   -­‐6.2%   Clothing     139   137   -­‐1.3%   School  Supplies   75   67   -­‐10.8%   Electronics   244   207   -­‐15.0%   2014 2015E YoY % Change Total BTS/BTC ($B) 74.94 67.95 -9.3
  • 9. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 3. Off-Price Retailing Beating Counterparts 9 0.6   0   -­‐13.8   6   7.9   18.7   -­‐20   -­‐15   -­‐10   -­‐5   0   5   10   15   20   25   Macy's   Kohls   Sears   TJX   Big  Lots   Burlington   FY13  Sales  %   FY14  Sales  %   FY15  Sales  %   YoY% change in Sales: Off-Price Retailers Vs. Specialty Retailers •  In January 2015, off-price retailers TJX Companies and Ross Stores reported a 6% and 7.9% in net sales, while Macy’s and Kohl’s registered sales growth of 0.6% and 0%. •  Efficient inventory management/turnover and low-cost structure allow for higher margins •  Outperforming high-end retailers because consumers are still cautious with their discretionary income: 20 to 60% discounts on branded goods. •  Macy’s opened discount store to compete: Macy’s Backstage %
  • 10. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 4. Gas Did Not Stay Below $2 per Gallon •  The gradual decline in oil prices is likely to continue in the second half of 2015, and gas should average $2.49 per gallon Through July 18, 2015 Regular grade average Source: US Energy Information Administration 2.6 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Weekly US Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices: USD per Gallon$
  • 11. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 5. June US Retail Sales Mixed, Showing Slow Recovery •  Total US monthly retail sales, excluding motor vehicles and restaurants, were mixed. The (YoY) change was 0.1% •  Retail sales were softer than expected in June, following a strong performance in May •  The NRF lowers 2015 forecasted growth to 3.5% from 4.1%, reflecting weak 1H Through  June  30,  2015   Source:  Bureau    of  Economic  Analysis     US Monthly Retail Sales Ex-Auto YoY% 0.1 (10) (5) 0 5 10 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
  • 12. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 6. Continued Record Low Jobless Claims •  Unemployment rate declined to 5.3% from 5.5% in May •  Nonfarm payrolls increased 223,000 in June •  Applications for jobless benefits reported a seasonally adjusted 267,000, in the week ending July 25 •  US has added an average of 208,000 jobs each month •  All good news and NOT showing up in retail sales Through  June  30,  2015   Source:  Bureau  of  Labor  StaAsAcs   Seasonally  Adjusted       US Unemployment Rate % 5.3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
  • 13. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. -0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.7 0.1 1 -1.3 -1.6 -1.5 3 7.7 1.3 1.2 6.6 -0.4 -1.4 4.1 1.9 Non-store Retailers Restaurants & Bars Health & Personal Care General Merchandise Sporting Goods, Books & Music Electronics & Appliances Building Materials & Garden eq. Suppliers Furniture & Home Goods Clothing & Accessories YoY% MoM% 7. Consumer Spending Varies by Category Through  June  30,  2015   Source:  Bureau    of  Economic  Analysis     US Monthly Retail Sales by Category YoY%
  • 14. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 8. BTS/BTC Promotions •  All retailers are participating in promotional activities across platforms -  In-store -  On-line -  Social media -  Mobile
  • 15. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 9. 2Q Earnings Scorecard •  354 companies reported 2Q through 7/31; the blended earnings decline is 1.3%. The last time the index reported a YoY earnings decline was 3Q 2012 (-1.0%). •  Positive earnings surprises below historic average but Consumer Discretionary sector are reporting the largest upside vs. estimates (+8.8%) -  Amazon (0.19 vs. -0.15), -  Carnival ($0.25 vs. $0.16), -  Netflix ($0.06 vs. $0.04), -  Under Armour ($0.07 vs. $0.05) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% S&P Earnings Consumer Disc. Earnings S&P Revenue Consumer Disc Revenue 0.27 0.29 0.48 0.46 0.73 0.71 0.52 0.54 Above Below Q2 2015 Earnings/Revenues Source: FactSet Research Systems 2015
  • 16. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 10. BTS 2015 Fashion Trends •  All about denim •  Leggings rule! 16
  • 17. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Upcoming Events •  Fashion Footwear Association of New York Shoe Show: New York, Aug. 4-6 •  Magic: Las Vegas, Aug. 17-19 •  NACDS Total Store Expo: Denver, CO, Aug. 22-25 •  ICSC Florida Conference: Orlando, FL. Aug. 30-Sept.1 •  World Retail Congress: Rome, Italy. Sept. 8-10 •  Goldman Sachs 22nd Annual Global Retail Conference: New York, Sept. 9-10 •  The Retail Conference 2015: London, UK. Sept. 16 17