In Search of the Biggest Bang for the Buck

In Search of The Biggest Bang for the Buck Differential Statistical www.Entrac-Petroleum.com R E (Gene) Ballay SPWLA UAE October 2009

In Search of The Biggest Bang for the Buck ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The Devil’s Promenade , SW Missouri

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[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

In Search of The Biggest Bang for the Buck ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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The Differential Approach Over-view ,[object Object],Sensitivity Analysis of the Parameters in Archie‘s Water Saturation Equation. The Log Analyst. Sept – Oct 1986

The Differential Approach Over-view ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The Differential Approach Over-view ,[object Object]

The Differential Approach Over-view ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The Differential Approach Over-view ,[object Object],These relations may be coded into nearly any petrophysical s/w package, to facilitate foot-by-foot evaluation

The Differential Approach Over-view ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Additional Details

The Statistical Approach Over-view ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The Statistical Approach Over-view ,[object Object],[object Object]

The Statistical Approach Over-view ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The Statistical Approach Over-view ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation

The Statistical Approach Over-view ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The Statistical Approach Over-view ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Additional Details Additional Details

The Statistical Approach Over-view ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Illustrative Monte Carlo Application

The Statistical Approach Over-view Sw(Archie) Uncertainty ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Statistical vs Best / Worst ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Derivatives vs Statistics Over-view ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Derivatives vs Statistics Over-view

The Spreadsheet Spreadsheet may be modified for locally specific conditions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Additional Details as a Text Document The Statistical Approach

The Differential Approach ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Additional Details as a Text Document

Monte Carlo Simulation of Sw(Archie) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Monte Carlo Simulation of Sw(Archie)

Monte Carlo Simulation of Sw(Archie) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Monte Carlo Simulation of Sw(Archie) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Monte Carlo Simulation of Sw(Archie)

Monte Carlo Simulation of Sw(Archie) ,[object Object],[object Object],Excel Details

Monte Carlo Simulation of Sw(Archie) ,[object Object],Be Careful to enter values appropriately, and not over-write live links

Monte Carlo Simulation of Sw(Archie) ,[object Object]

Monte Carlo Simulation of Phi(Rhob) ,[object Object]

Monte Carlo Simulation of “m(Dual Porosity)” ,[object Object]

Monte Carlo Simulation of Sw(Archie) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Cross Check

Monte Carlo Simulation of Sw(Archie) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Cross Check

Monte Carlo Simulation of Sw(Archie) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],QC the Monte Carlo

Monte Carlo Simulation of Sw(Archie) Sw(Archie) Uncertainty ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Monte Carlo Simulation of Sw(Archie) Excel Bins ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Nonlinear relationship affects probability distributions. Oilfield Review. Autumn 2002. Ian Bryant, Alberto Malinverno, Michael Prange, Mauro Gonfalini, James Moffat, Dennis Swager, Philippe Theys, Francesca Verga. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Nonlinear Relation Is An Additional Issue

Monte Carlo vs Best / Worse Case ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

In Search of The Biggest Bang for the Buck ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Where Is The Biggest Bang For The Buck?

Uncertainty in Archie’s Equation Where to spend time, and money, in search of an improved Sw estimate Identifying the Biggest Bang for the Buck ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Derivatives vs Monte Carlo

In Search of The Biggest Bang for the Buck ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The Derivative Approach ,[object Object]

In Search of The Biggest Bang for the Buck ,[object Object],Spreadsheet may be modified for locally specific conditions

In Search of The Biggest Bang for the Buck ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The Derivative Approach

In Search of The Biggest Bang for the Buck ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Derivatives vs Monte Carlo

In Search of The Biggest Bang for the Buck ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation

In Search of The Biggest Bang for the Buck ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Uncertainty Specification Derivative  Monte Carlo Total Uncertainty vs Standard Deviations

In Search of The Biggest Bang for the Buck ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],“ m” & “n” Uncertainty

In Search of The Biggest Bang for the Buck ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Derivatives vs Monte Carlo

In Search of The Biggest Bang for the Buck ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Derivatives vs Monte Carlo

Monte Carlo vs Best / Worst Case ,[object Object],[object Object],Best Case Worst Case

In Search of The Biggest Bang for the Buck ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

In Search of The Biggest Bang for the Buck ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Comments by Carlos Torres-Verdin, University of Texas ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Additional Considerations

Carlos Torres-Verdin: Be sure to recognize that logs are affected by various issues Ozark Mtns Road Cut, SW Missouri

Quantifying Petrophysical Uncertainties S J Adams 2005 Asia Pacific Oil & Gas Conference, Jakarta, Indonesia, 5 - 7 April 2005 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Additional Considerations

We appreciate the unidentified LSU faculty who posted their material (located via Google) to http://www.enrg.lsu.edu/pttc/ Additional Considerations

http://www.statsoft.com/textbook/stathome.html Additional Considerations

Useful Links http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_carlo_simulation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Early morning carbonate bluffs along Steel Creek, Arkansas Thank you for your Time and Interest

R. E. (Gene) Ballay’s 32 years in petrophysics include research and operations assignments in Houston (Shell Research), Texas; Anchorage (ARCO), Alaska; Dallas (Arco Research), Texas; Jakarta (Huffco), Indonesia; Bakersfield (ARCO), California; and Dhahran, Saudi Arabia. His carbonate experience ranges from individual Niagaran reefs in Michigan to the Lisburne in Alaska to Ghawar, Saudi Arabia (the largest oilfield in the world). He holds a PhD in Theoretical Physics with double minors in Electrical Engineering & Mathematics , has taught physics in two universities , mentored Nationals in Indonesia and Saudi Arabia, published numerous technical articles and been designated co-inventor on both American and European patents . At retirement from the Saudi Arabian Oil Company he was the senior technical petrophysicist in the Reservoir Description Division and had represented petrophysics in three multi-discipline teams bringing on-line three (one clastic, two carbonate) multi-billion barrel increments. Subsequent to retirement from Saudi Aramco he established Robert E Ballay LLC, which provides physics - petrophysics training & consulting services. He served in the U.S. Army as a Microwave Repairman and in the U.S. Navy as an Electronics Technician, and he is a USPA Parachutist and a PADI Dive Master. Chattanooga shale Mississippian limestone

In Search of the Biggest Bang for the Buck

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