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Determinants of foreign exchange

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Determinants of foreign exchange

  1. 1. Determinants of Foreign Exchange
  2. 2. DEFINITIONS • Foreign Exchange The system of converting one national currency into another, or of transferring money from one country to another.
  3. 3. • Foreign Exchange Market  Forex market is a place in which foreign exchange transactions take place.  A market in which National currencies are bought and sold against one another The foreign exchange market is one of the largest markets in the world. By some estimates, about 3.2 trillion USD worth of currency changes hands every day.
  4. 4. Foreign exchange reserves
  5. 5. Exchange Rates Indicative on Friday April 16, 2010 IMPORT Currency EXPORT Forward Spot Spot Forward 6 months 3 months 1 month TT * Bill TT* Bill 1 month 3 months 6 months 45.26 44.85 44.58 44.42 44.46 US Dollar 44.34 44.32 44.5 44.78 45.19 61.23 60.69 60.32 60.11 60.15 Euro 60.00 59.99 60.21 60.59 61.14 69.92 69.32 68.93 68.69 68.74 Pound Sterling 68.57 68.56 68.81 69.23 69.84 48.84 48.36 48.05 47.87 47.90 Japanese Yen* 47.75 47.74 47.95 48.26 48.72 42.8 42.38 42.1 41.94 41.97 Swiss Franc 41.83 41.82 42.01 42.28 42.7 8.22 8.15 8.11 8.08 8.09 Danish Kroner 8.06 8.06 8.09 8.14 8.21 32.96 32.67 32.47 32.36 32.38 Singapore Dollar 32.29 32.28 32.42 32.61 32.91 5.84 5.78 5.75 5.72 5.73 Hong Kong Dollar 5.71 5.71 5.73 5.77 5.83 41.27 41.35 41.53 41.38 41.40 Australian Dollar 41.32 41.31 41.45 41.57 41.65 31.9 31.84 31.79 31.74 31.76 New Zealand Dollar 31.68 31.68 31.79 31.92 32.08 7.65 7.61 7.59 7.57 7.58 Norwegian Kroner 7.55 7.55 7.59 7.62 7.67 6.33 6.24 6.24 6.21 6.22 Swedish Kroner 6.20 6.20 6.22 6.26 6.32 45.07 44.73 44.47 44.31 44.34 Canadian Dollar 44.21 44.20 44.39 44.66 45.06 Source: State Bank Of India, Chennai *TT - Telegraphic Transfer
  6. 6. Features of Foreign Exchange Market The foreign exchange market is unique because of trading volume results in market liquidity geographical dispersion continuous operation: 24 hours a day except weekends the variety of factors that affect exchange rates the low margins of relative profit compared with other markets of fixed income the use of leverage to enhance profit margins with respect to account size
  7. 7. Participants Individuals: tourists, migrants Firms: importers and exporters Banks:commercial & central banks Governments / monetary authorities International agencies
  8. 8. Functions of Forex Market • Transfer of Purchasing power • Provision of credit • Provision of hedging facilities
  9. 9. Determinants of Foreign Exchange Market Long – term Factors Short-term Factors
  10. 10. Long-term Factors • Balance of Payments
  11. 11. • Strength of economy The relative strength of an economy has effect on demand and supply of foreign currencies. If an economy is growing at a faster rate, in the long-run, it is generally expected to have a better performance on Balance of Trade .
  12. 12. • Interest rate The capital is attracted towards currencies yielding higher interest rates, provided there is full currency convertibility in capital account.
  13. 13. • Inflation A higher rate of inflation will make a country’s currency less attractive because of the loss of real value with inflation. ◦ Hence, that currency would depreciate against major currencies.
  14. 14. • Money Supply An increase in money supply will affect the exchange rate through causing inflation in the country. It can also affect the exchange rate directly in the short run.
  15. 15. • National Income An increase in the national income will lead to an increase in investment or in consumption and accordingly, its effect on the exchange rate will change.
  16. 16. Short term factors • Central bank intervention Buying and selling of foreign currency in the market by the Central Bank with a view to increasing the supply or demand, there by affecting the exchange rate, is known as intervention.
  17. 17. • Export receipts and import payments The difference between the total receipts from export bill realizations and import payments on a given day in a country determines the exchange rate to some extent.
  18. 18. • Foreign investment flows Both foreign direct and portfolio investment inflows and outflows affect the exchange rates.
  19. 19. • Political factors Factors like war. Announcement of election results, oil price increase etc will cause exchange rate fluctuations.
  20. 20. • Speculation If a few big speculators start buying a currency in an aggressive manner, others may follow suit. Thus, the demand of the currency may increase.
  21. 21. • Capital Movements Movement will be caused by external borrowings and assistance. Large-scale external borrowing will have favorable effect on the exchange rate of the country’s currency.
  22. 22. FEMA • The Foreign Exchange Management Act or in short FEMA has been introduced as a replacement for earlier Foreign Exchange Regulation Act (FERA). FEMA came into act on the 1st day of June, 2000. The main objective behind the Foreign Exchange Management Act (1999) is to consolidate and amend the law relating to foreign exchange with objective of facilitating external trade and payments and for promoting the orderly development and maintenance of foreign exchange market in India. FEMA is applicable to the all parts of India. The act is also applicable to all branches, offices and agencies outside India owned or controlled by a person who is resident of India. FEMA head-office also known as Enforcement Directorate is situated in New Delhi and is headed by a Director. The Directorate is further divided into 5 zonal offices at Delhi, Bombay, Calcutta, Madras and Jalandhar and each office is headed by a Deputy Directors. Each zone is further divided into 7 sub-zonal offices headed by the Assistant Directors and 5 field units headed by the Chief Enforcement Officers
  23. 23. Conclusion • Liquid Investment- foreign exchange market has the advantage of being extremely liquid. What this means is that investors would be able to withdraw from their investments at any point in time relatively easily. This is due to the fact that the foreign exchange market has a global market, which means searching for a buyer to purchase a particular currency which you are interested to sell is usually not a big problem. • Convenience-foreign currency exchange trading is extremely convenient. Organized as an over-the-counter market, foreign exchange traders from all over the world are brought into contact each day via the internet. This means that traders would be able to trade with one another 24 hours a day, five days a week. • FACILITATES TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT

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