Sangokoya, Developing Out of Displacement (2010)
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![Developing Out of Displacement,[object Object],Exploring Variation in Economic Recovery of Northern Uganda and Other Countries Following Displacement-Inducing Conflict,[object Object],David Adeoluwa Sangokoya,[object Object],Center for Democracy, Development and Rule of Law Honors Program,[object Object],Advisors: Larry Diamond, Kathryn Stoner-Weiss, Jeremy Weinstein,[object Object],Stanford University,[object Object],May 2010,[object Object],©2008 guardian.co.uk | Acholi IDP camp in Unyama,[object Object]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/sangokoyadevelopingoutofdisplacement-110322030918-phpapp01/75/sangokoya-developing-out-of-displacement-2010-1-2048.jpg?cb=1671747814)
![“We used to have community structures…but all that has died down. Different cultures..when people came together in a camp, mixed up. No one is interested bringing back old strong community structures, and we’re stuck in subsistence farming … Government says the GDP has grown, GNP is doing well, the GTP is doing well. In the commands of some few. The rural people are still in sh--… People have returned, fine…but they’ve just taken their corpses for burial. Most people have lost hope, they cannot live a productive life…that is the big sh-- we’re in [after coming back from the camps].” ,[object Object],- Interview, UNICEF-Lira employee, July 2008,[object Object],Is recovery possible?,[object Object]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/sangokoyadevelopingoutofdisplacement-110322030918-phpapp01/75/sangokoya-developing-out-of-displacement-2010-2-2048.jpg?cb=1671747814)
![Despite overall losses, displacement throws up “winners” and,[object Object],“losers” in terms of growth recovery…,[object Object],Research question,[object Object],What causes variation in the rate of growth recovery after displacement-,[object Object],inducing conflict?,[object Object]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/sangokoyadevelopingoutofdisplacement-110322030918-phpapp01/75/sangokoya-developing-out-of-displacement-2010-3-2048.jpg?cb=1671747814)
![Part 1: Defining variables,[object Object],Displacement-inducing conflict ● conflict vs. post-conflict ● refugee ● IDP ● durable solutions ● growth recovery ,[object Object],Part 2: Identifying and analyzing variation,[object Object],Methodology,[object Object],Strong growth recovery vs. weak growth recovery: Sierra Leone (SGR) and Burundi (WGR),[object Object],Land tenure and growth,[object Object],Part 3: Developing out of displacement in northern Uganda,[object Object],Part 4: Market development after displacement-inducing conflict,[object Object],To redistribute or not redistribute: Can you address inequality and poverty reduction while promoting economic growth after conflict?,[object Object],Land tenure and market development—in the short run and long run ,[object Object],Developing out of displacement,[object Object]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/sangokoyadevelopingoutofdisplacement-110322030918-phpapp01/75/sangokoya-developing-out-of-displacement-2010-4-2048.jpg?cb=1671747814)
![Forced migration,[object Object],Conflict and “post-conflict” scenarios,[object Object],Durable solutions,[object Object],Growth recovery,[object Object],Part one:Defining Variables,[object Object],1. Macro-level, deductive observations by international, nonstate actors must be complemented with adequate ___ of micro-level foundations of displacement-inducing conflict. How organizations define people and places must more closelyt describe how things are; affects how organizations determine solutions , and indicate for success.,[object Object],©2010 UNHCR in Sudan http://eos.io,[object Object]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/sangokoyadevelopingoutofdisplacement-110322030918-phpapp01/75/sangokoya-developing-out-of-displacement-2010-5-2048.jpg?cb=1671747814)
![Displacement-inducing agents: conflict (political violence), development projects, disasters, environmental*,[object Object],Causes of displacement-inducing conflict: ,[object Object],Breaches in local, personal security: government terror, dissident violence, civil wars, and international wars on a territory (Moore and Shellman 2004),[object Object],Voluntary and involuntary migrants: who’s forced?,[object Object],UNHCR, national governments and international community determine and define their constituency, despite problematic nature of distinction,[object Object],History of the refugee (1945-); IDPs (2000-),[object Object],Durable solutions to displacement: return, resettlement, and reintegration (refugee flows and IDPs),[object Object],Definitions and identities,[object Object],Conflict, displacement, and durable solutions,[object Object]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/sangokoyadevelopingoutofdisplacement-110322030918-phpapp01/75/sangokoya-developing-out-of-displacement-2010-6-2048.jpg?cb=1671747814)
![From conflict to “post-conflict”: developing a typology for indicating transition to “post-conflict” scenario,[object Object],UNDP 2008 Report on Post-Conflict Growth Recovery,[object Object],Criteria:,[object Object],Post-war annual GDP per capita growth averages of 2% or higher,[object Object],Higher average post-conflict growth rate than pre-conflict growth rate,[object Object],Strong growth recovery (SGR) countries:,[object Object],Weak growth recovery (WGR) countries:,[object Object],Micro-foundations of human migration and conflict, complemented with macro-level analysis,[object Object],Defining Growth Recovery,[object Object]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/sangokoyadevelopingoutofdisplacement-110322030918-phpapp01/75/sangokoya-developing-out-of-displacement-2010-7-2048.jpg?cb=1671747814)
![Part Two:Identifying and Analyzing Variation,[object Object],Methodology,[object Object],Strong growth recovery vs. weak growth recovery,[object Object],Sierra Leone,[object Object],Burundi,[object Object],Land tenure and growth,[object Object],2. After crises such as displacement-inducing conflict, effective recovery policy matters.,[object Object],3. Postwar grievances matter.,[object Object],©2010 Farmer overlooks the farm land outside Kigali, Rwanda | Foreign Policy,[object Object]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/sangokoyadevelopingoutofdisplacement-110322030918-phpapp01/75/sangokoya-developing-out-of-displacement-2010-8-2048.jpg?cb=1671747814)
![Economic and historical analysis of a SGR and WGR country during and after conflict,[object Object],Michael Cernea’s Implementation Risks and Reconstruction (IRR) Model – understanding the effects of displacement,[object Object],Qualitative analysis ,[object Object],Variation of rate of growth recovery in country case studies,[object Object],Variation in growth recovery across post-camp northern Uganda,[object Object],Independent variables: ,[object Object],Methodology,[object Object]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/sangokoyadevelopingoutofdisplacement-110322030918-phpapp01/75/sangokoya-developing-out-of-displacement-2010-9-2048.jpg?cb=1671747814)
![Information from Doyle and Sambanis (2000) dataset on civil wars; UNDP 2008 Report – SGR and WGR; World Bank DDP Query; IMF DataMapper®; UNHCR Statistical Yearbooks 1994-2007,[object Object],Dataset,[object Object],Country cases entering into post-conflict “transition” after 1990,[object Object],Average GDP per capita annual percent growth rate,[object Object],Stock number of UNHCR-assisted displaced persons (refugees and IDPs) from 1990-2008 (per thousand population),[object Object],Case selection,[object Object]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/sangokoyadevelopingoutofdisplacement-110322030918-phpapp01/75/sangokoya-developing-out-of-displacement-2010-10-2048.jpg?cb=1671747814)
![History – Economic,[object Object],Conflict History,[object Object],Disp. History,[object Object],IRR Analysis,[object Object],Burundi,[object Object]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/sangokoyadevelopingoutofdisplacement-110322030918-phpapp01/75/sangokoya-developing-out-of-displacement-2010-13-2048.jpg?cb=1671747814)
![History – Economic,[object Object],Conflict History,[object Object],Disp. History,[object Object],IRR Analysis,[object Object],Sierra Leone,[object Object]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/sangokoyadevelopingoutofdisplacement-110322030918-phpapp01/75/sangokoya-developing-out-of-displacement-2010-14-2048.jpg?cb=1671747814)
![Camp Displacement and Demographic Composition of Resettled Communities – Ex-combatants and DDR,[object Object],Natural, physical, human, and social capital recovery—land tenure systems,[object Object],Variation in Growth Recovery,[object Object]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/sangokoyadevelopingoutofdisplacement-110322030918-phpapp01/75/sangokoya-developing-out-of-displacement-2010-15-2048.jpg?cb=1671747814)
![Part Three:Developing out of displacement in northern Uganda,[object Object],History, displacement, and growth,[object Object],Land tenure reform?,[object Object],Recommendations for Ugandan government and NGOs,[object Object],1. Macro-level, deductive observations by international, nonstate actors must be complemented with adequate ___ of micro-level foundations of displacement-inducing conflict. How organizations define people and places must more closelyt describe how things are; affects how,[object Object],Lira, Uganda, outside of Sankofa CafeDecember 2010,[object Object]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/sangokoyadevelopingoutofdisplacement-110322030918-phpapp01/75/sangokoya-developing-out-of-displacement-2010-16-2048.jpg?cb=1671747814)
![History,[object Object],Conflict Patterns 1,[object Object],Conflict Patterns 2,[object Object],Conflict Patterns 3,[object Object],Displacement ,[object Object],Patterns of conflict and displacement,[object Object]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/sangokoyadevelopingoutofdisplacement-110322030918-phpapp01/75/sangokoya-developing-out-of-displacement-2010-17-2048.jpg?cb=1671747814)
![Camp closure and phaseout,[object Object],Economic profile of Lira, northern Uganda in general,[object Object],Land tenure reform? ,[object Object],Addressing inequality and growth,[object Object],Heading toward SGR or WGR?,[object Object]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/sangokoyadevelopingoutofdisplacement-110322030918-phpapp01/75/sangokoya-developing-out-of-displacement-2010-18-2048.jpg?cb=1671747814)
![Part Four:MarketDevelopment after displacement-inducingconflict,[object Object],To redistribute or not redistribute?,[object Object],Growth recovery and market development—toward “peace economies”,[object Object],Frameworks for market development,[object Object],Land tenure and market development,[object Object],Summary ,[object Object],Future Research,[object Object],Kampala, Uganda, outside of IOM’s headoffice | December 2010,[object Object]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/sangokoyadevelopingoutofdisplacement-110322030918-phpapp01/75/sangokoya-developing-out-of-displacement-2010-19-2048.jpg?cb=1671747814)
![Basic macroeconomics: developing countries must focus on growth first, and then mechanisms for redistribution,[object Object],Increasing the pie increase individual slices,[object Object],Commitment issues,[object Object],Effects of displacement and conflict: loss of assets, skills, and productivity; damage of infrastructure and former market networks ,[object Object],Is it possible to address inequality while promoting economic growth?,[object Object],Northern Uganda and Southern Uganda,[object Object],Addressing inequality and Growth,[object Object]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/sangokoyadevelopingoutofdisplacement-110322030918-phpapp01/75/sangokoya-developing-out-of-displacement-2010-20-2048.jpg?cb=1671747814)
![Growth important in order to have any peace:,[object Object],Market development to promote peace—towards “peace economies”,[object Object],Peacebuilding and economic recovery,[object Object],Framework for developing market development programmes that do not aggravate causes of conflict:,[object Object],Value Chain Framework: Understanding national supply and demand between suppliers and buyers and determining governance structures,[object Object],Making Markets Work for the Poor (M4P): Increasing incomes and enabling scale, sustainability and systemic market change,[object Object],Bottom of the Pyramid (BoP): Developing scalable products and services that work for the poor ,[object Object],Social Enterprise: Inserting social enterprises into critical gaps in the market,[object Object],Growth Recovery and market development,[object Object]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/sangokoyadevelopingoutofdisplacement-110322030918-phpapp01/75/sangokoya-developing-out-of-displacement-2010-21-2048.jpg?cb=1671747814)
![Land tenure reform functions in Value Chain Framework,[object Object],Short-term effects in Sierra Leone, possible solutions to landlessness in northern Uganda and variation in growth recovery ,[object Object],Tailoring market development strategies to peacebuilding initiatives,[object Object],Political economy of each conflict, identities of actors involved, and pre- and post-conflict market analyses matter,[object Object],Ultimately, increased growth will only occur with changes in incentives (Easterly),[object Object],Land Tenure Reform and market Development: Panacea?,[object Object]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/sangokoyadevelopingoutofdisplacement-110322030918-phpapp01/75/sangokoya-developing-out-of-displacement-2010-22-2048.jpg?cb=1671747814)
![What causes variation in the rate of growth recovery after displacement-inducing conflict?,[object Object],“…People have returned, fine…but they’ve just taken their corpses for burial. Most,[object Object],people have lost hope, they cannot live a productive life…that is the big sh-- we’re in,[object Object],[after coming back from the camps].” ,[object Object],[object Object]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/sangokoyadevelopingoutofdisplacement-110322030918-phpapp01/75/sangokoya-developing-out-of-displacement-2010-23-2048.jpg?cb=1671747814)
![Market development of “peace economies” is crucial.,[object Object]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/sangokoyadevelopingoutofdisplacement-110322030918-phpapp01/75/sangokoya-developing-out-of-displacement-2010-28-2048.jpg?cb=1671747814)
Sangokoya, Developing Out of Displacement (2010)
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Stanford honors thesis 2010 Developing Out of Displacement: Exploring Variation in Economic Recovery of Northern Uganda and Other Countries Following Displacement-Inducing Conflict
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Sangokoya, Developing Out of Displacement (2010)
- 24. Definitions are necessary, but can both ameliorate and suffocate.
- 25. The impact of displacement is significant.
- 26. Addressing postwar grievances matters.
- 27. Fiscal policy and government interventions are necessary.
- 29. Definitions are necessary, but can both ameliorate and suffocate.
- 30. The impact of displacement is significant.
- 31. Addressing postwar grievances matters.
- 32. Fiscal policy and government interventions are necessary.
Hinweis der Redaktion
- Ultimately, all migrants are motivated by a mixture of economic and political factors, and therefore the definition of forced migration rests not on a unique quality of the experiences of “forced” migrants, but rather on an external determination and acknowledgment of rights originating from the collection of humanitarian state and international non-state actors (or the international humanitarian system). The distinction between voluntary and involuntary migrants reflects categories of people whose basic rights states or non-state actors are either willing or unwilling to provide; in a struggling developing economy, the proliferation of migrants threatened by structural constraints and in search of a more secure future may prove either too much for actors to respond to or too excessive for public actors such as NGOs to support “private ventures” and continue to receive funding from their donors. External actors in the international humanitarian system therefore determine and define their constituency in accordance to their individual mandates, despite the “problematic nature of the distinction” created. These definitions may not be reflective of their actual experiences or identities, and may limit our understanding of actual dynamics of displacement and its effects.
- Another issue involving definitions: conflict vs. post-conflict in econometric studies on civil war and other studiesUltimately, post-conflict economic recovery can be more accurately regarded as complete “when the main features of an economy no longer stem from the war but from the normal conditions of the economy,” which includes both phases of recession and expansion. As an international organization, UNHCR largely observes forced migration as a "macro-structural" issue, as opposed to "one highlighting the micro-foundations of the individual decisions that produced refugees [and other displaced persons]." At the macro-level, displaced persons are essentially "stimulus-responded mechanisms"; at the micro-level, these persons retain a choice to stay and understanding micro-foundations are important in understanding both displacement and its effects. While the latter is often invisible in the literature's descriptions of "flows" and "streams" of displaced persons and, argued by Davenport et al. (2003), should complement macro-level definitions and research. While Davenport et. al (2003) do not contend that all scholarship "embrace methodological individualism," they argue that "developing a theory with micro-foundations is important in this area of inquiry." This study attempts to incorporate both macro- and micro-foundations, utilizing a macro-level analysis related to displacement and growth recovery across country cases, as well as incorporating micro-level analysis that produces “hypotheses about macro-level observables.”Davenport et al, "Sometimes You Just Have to Leave: Domestic Threats and Forced Migration, 1964-1989," p30.
- Land as an asset; displacement caused a combination of natural, physical, human, and social capital loss
- From the previous points above, it would seem probable that countries with high stock numbers of displaced persons would be strongly correlated with low growth, with relatively little variation across countries; in addition to human rights abuses, civil war, and other displacement-inducing factors from Shellman’s analysis, the displacement of refugees into and out of a country has been strongly evidenced to correlate with low growth, and these countries often do not recover to pre-conflict levels. Sierra Leone and Burundi: most similar casesAfrican continent continues to be the main theater for displacement in the 21st century. Similar range of conflict, extent of human rights abuses (child soldiers, mutilation, etc.), and threshold of displacement