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How Big is Seed Stage Startup Market?
500 VCs invest in 10,000 startups/yr @ $500K/startup = $5B/yr
How many people are entrepreneurs? How many startups get started every year?
• ~1% of Humanity is “Entrepreneurial” (def’n: “can create a $10M rev/yr business”)
• 1% x 7B ppl = 70M entrepreneurs, each of which starts 1-5 businesses lifetime (70 yrs)
• hypothesis: talented entrepreneurs can create 1-5M new “startup” businesses every year
!
NOW: let’s say we *ONLY* do the top 1% => the best 10,000 startups in the top 200 metros
!
How many metros? How many investors / metro? How many startups / metro?
• 1 [micro] VC can fund 10-20 startups/yr * $50K-$500K = ~$1-10M/yr annual budget
• global metros of 1-10M+ ppl can generate 100-1,000 startups / year
• 1-5 VCs in top 200 metros = 500 VCs x 20 startups/yr = 10,000 startups/yr
• hypothesis: 500 VCs invest $500K each -> 20 startups/yr = $5B/yr -> 10,000 startups
!
… so forget about 500 Startups, and start thinking about 500 VCs.
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