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Investing in Tech Startups (Miami, Nov 2015)

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slides from my talk at Wealth Mgmt Americas 2015

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Investing in Tech Startups (Miami, Nov 2015)

  1. Unlocking Silicon Valley: Investing in Tech Startups @DaveMcClure @500Startups http://500.co Miami, Nov 2015
  2. Dave McClure
 Founding Partner & Chief Troublemaker, 500 Startups 00’s & 10’s: • VC: Founders Fund, Facebook fbFund, 500 Startups • Angel: Mashery, Mint.com, SlideShare, Twilio, Wildfire, SendGrid • Marketing: PayPal, Simply Hired, Mint.com, O’Reilly 80’s & 90’s: • Entrepreneur: Aslan Computing (acq’d by Servinet/Panurgy) • Developer: Windows / SQL DB consultant (Intel, MSFT) • Engineer: Johns Hopkins‘88, BS Eng / Applied Math
  3. • What is 500? – $200M silicon valley VC fund + startup accelerator – 100+ people / 30 investing partners / 18 countries / 20+ languages – 2500+ Founders / 250+ Mentors – Community + Education + Events • ~1300+ Portfolio Co’s / 50+ Countries – Credit Karma ($3B+) – Twilio ($1B+) – GrabTaxi ($1B+) – Wildfire (acq GOOG, $350M) – MakerBot (acq SSYS, $400M) – Viki (acq Rakuten, $200M) – Simple (acq BBVA, $117M) – Sunrise (acq MSFT, $100M) – SendGrid – Udemy – Barkbox – Intercom – TalkDesk 500 Startups
 Global Seed Fund & Startup Accelerator
  4. The 500 Portfolio: Over 1,000 Companies in 50 Countries 3 Unicorns > $1B+ in valuation 30 Centaurs > $100M+ in valuation 300 Ponies > $10M+ in valuation Udemy VivaReal Smule TalkDesk Intercom WePay Sendgrid TheRealReal Womply Life360 StyleSeat Peertransfer Vungle ElaCarte Ipsy Remind BarkBox Plangrid Tradesy Virool Kinnek Sprig Skimlinks ToutApp Recurly ContaAzul Zozi BoostCTR OwnLocal Brainient Bustle LeTote Breather Mayvenn SpotHero Canva TokyoOtakuMode ClubW Muse Geekatoo Transcriptic SnapSheet Algolia Juxta Labs RealtyShares Unikrn Lenda AgFunder BTCjam Junglee Culture Alley Cleanify Italist AllDay Avanoo Neighborly Holidog ViralGains SilverPush StudyPool ++++
  5. 500 Startups: 100+ Investors, Entrepreneurs, Geeks from Silicon Valley / USA + 17 other Countries The title “Partner” is used in accordance with customary business practice in the venture capital industry and does not indicate a legal Dave McClure Christine Tsai FOUNDINGFOUNDING PARTNER Khailee Ng MANAGING Bedy Yang MANAGING SOUTH EAST ASIA LATAM/BRAZIL Hasan Haider Santiago Zavala Rui Ma Marvin Liao Elizabeth Yin Edith Yeung Sean Percival Adam Benayoun Juan L. Salaberry Pankaj Jain Mojan MovassateMax Fram-Schwartz Ryan Lawler Andrea Barrica Zafer Younis Krating Poonpol Natavudh P. (Moo)Cjin Cheng Binh Tran Emily Chiu Diana Moldavsky Robert Neivert Eddie Thai Erhan ErdoganPhilipp Moehring James Riney Mat Johnson Matt Lerner Tammy Camp Tim Chae Early employee Paypal, early ‘Super Angel’, venture capitalist at Founder’s Fund, led fbFund. Early employee YouTube, led developer community building for Google after YouTube’s acquisition Built and exited 2 startups in 3 years. GroupsMore sold to Groupon + SAYS.com merged to be listed on the Malaysian stock exchange Founded Brazil Innovators and built startup ecosystems in Latin America, and most active seed investor threre. Kauffman Fellow
  6. [ This Talk ] • Changes in Building Technology Startups • Changes in Venture Capital Investing • Silicon Valley Investing Unlocked
  7. Before & After 2 Dot-Com Crashes
 LEAN Startup: Simpler, Faster, Cheaper, Smarter Before 2000 Big, Fat, Dinosaur Startup • Sun Servers • Oracle DB • Exodus Hosting • 12-24mo dev cycle • 6-18mo sales cycle • <100M people online • $1-2M seed round • $3-5M Series A • Sand Hill Road crawl After 2008 Lean, Little, Cockroach Startup • AWS, Google, PayPal, FB, TW • Cloud + Open Source SW • Lean Startup / Startup Wknd • 3-90d dev cycle • SaaS / online sales • >3B people online • <$100K incub + <$1M seed • $1-3M Series A • Angel List global visibility
  8. Changes in Tech Startups • LESS Capital required to build product, get to market – Dramatically reduced cost for servers, software, bandwidth – Funding Platforms: KickStarter, Angel List, Funders Club, etc – Access to online platforms for 100M-1B+ consumers, smallbiz, etc • MORE Customers via ONLINE platforms (100M+ users) – Search (Google, Baidu) – Social (Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn) – Mobile (Apple, Android) – E-Commerce (Amazon, Ebay/PayPal, Alibaba) – Media (YouTube, Pinterest, Instagram) – Comm/Msgs (WeChat, WhatsApp, Line, SnapChat, Email, Voice, SMS, etc) • LOTS of little bets: Accelerators, Angels, Angel List, Small Exits – Capital + Co-working + Mentoring -> Design, Data, Distribution – “Fast, Cheap Fail”, network effects, quantitative + iterative investments
  9. Platforms 2.0
 Search, Social, Mobile, Video, Messaging
  10. Building Tech Startups Make lots of little bets: • Start with many small “experiments” • Filter out failures + small wins • Double-down on stuff that looks like it’s working • Incubation: $0-100K (“Build & Validate Product”) • Seed: $100K-$1M (“Test & Grow Marketing Channels””) • Venture: $1M-$10M (“Maximize Growth & Revenue”)
  11. Investment Stage #1: 
 Product Validation + Customer Usage • Structure – 1-3 founders – $25-$100K investment – Incubator environment: multiple peers, mentors/advisors • Test Functional Prototype / “Minimum Viable Product” (MVP): – Prototype->Alpha, ~3-6 months – Develop Minimal Critical Feature Set => Get to “It Works! Someone Uses It.” – Improve Design & Usability, Setup Conversion Metrics – Test Small-Scale Customer Adoption (10-1000 users) • Demonstrate Concept, Reduce Product Risk, Test Functional Use • Develop Metrics & Filter for Possible Future Investment
  12. Investment Stage #2: 
 Market Validation + Revenue Testing • Structure – 2-10 person team – $100K-$1M investment – Syndicate of Angel Investors / Small VC Funds • Improve Product, Expand Customers, Test Revenue: – Alpha->Beta, ~6-12 months – Scale Customer Adoption => “Many People Use It, & They Pay.” – Test Marketing Campaigns, Customer Acquisition Channels + Cost – Test Revenue / Unit Economics, Find Profitable Customer Segments • Prove Solution/Benefit, Assess Market Size • Test Channel Cost, Unit Economics, Revenue Opportunity • Determine Org Structure, Key Hires
  13. Investment Stage #3: 
 Revenue Validation + Growth • Structure – 5-25 person team – $1M-$10M investment – Seed & Venture Investors • Make Money (or Go Big), Get to Sustainability: – Beta->Production, 12-24 months – Revenue / Growth => “We Can Make (a lot of) Money!” – Mktg Plan => Predictable Channels / Campaigns + Budget – Scalability & Infrastructure, Customer Service & Operations – Connect with Distribution Partners, Expand Growth • Prove/Expand Market, Operationalize Business • Future Milestones: Profitable/Sustainable, Exit Options
  14. [ This Talk ] • Changes in Building Technology Startups • Changes in Venture Capital Investing • Silicon Valley Investing Unlocked
  15. VC Industry Changes • Lean Startup Efficiency, Reduced Capital Costs • Global Market: 3B->6B Internet/Smartphone Access • Billion-Person Distribution Platforms, “Growth Hacking” • Improved Monetization, Payments Infrastructure, Logistics • Explosion of “Unicorns”, Private Capital Displacing IPOs • Seed Funds, Angel Investors, Accelerators, Funding Platforms • Global Market for Customers, Investors, Acquirers more info: http://PreMoney.co
  16. Investor Education • Startups are NOT Real Estate • Most Startups Fail / Power Law Returns • Portfolio Approach (20-50+ investments) • Legal Structure, Financial Structure • Syndication + Co-Investment • Access to Downstream Capital • Exits & Liquidity 16
  17. 500 Strategy: Lots of Little Bets* 1) make lots (>100) of investments in early-stage startups 3) wait 3-10 years for returns: -10-20% small exits @1-5X (<25M+) -5-10% larger exits @5-20X ($25-250M+) -1-2% unicorns @20-50X+ (>$250M-1B+) *See Peter Sims book: “Little Bets” 2) over next 2 years, double-down on top 20%
  18. Startup Risk Reduction Concept Early Customer Usage Scalable Customer Acquisition [about to be] Profitable Unit Economics Scalable Profitable Business Functional Prototype PRODUCT MARKET REVENUE Exit? When 500 Likes to Invest
  19. Legal review Partner approval Angel Pre-Seed Seed Post-Seed Series A/B Growth Accelerator How 500 Invests Seed “Distro" Follow-On Selection Criteria – Data-Driven Process Based on Pre-defined Metrics • Product or service solves a problem for a specific target customer • Capital-efficient business; operational at less than $1M in external financing • Scalable internet-based distribution (search, social, mobile) or proven ability to scale sales • Functional prototype required before investing (or previous product success) • Measurable traction: engaged users, some revenue, and attractive unit economics • Cross-functional team with design, engineering and marketing expertise
  20. [ This Talk ] • Changes in Building Technology Startups • Changes in Venture Capital Investing • Silicon Valley Investing Unlocked
  21. Critical Ecosystem Factors • Optimism & Belief (“Silicon Valley”) • Mentorship + Education (Knowledge) • Universities + Companies (People) • Capital, Legal, Finance (Infrastructure) • Engineering + Design / UX (Product) • Platforms + Distribution (Customers) • Online Payments (Monetization) • IPO / M&A Market (Exits) 21
  22. Q: Chances of spotting unicorn?/ a) 1% b) 2% c) 5% d) 10%
  23. Q: Chances of spotting unicorn?/ a) 1% b) 2% c) 5% d) 10% e) ZERO
  24. Chances of spotting unicorn = ~1%/
  25. Portfolio Diversification “Spray, not Pray”
  26. / http://bit.ly/99VCProble
  27. If portfolio size = 15 companies/
  28. / If portfolio size = 30 companies
  29. / If portfolio size = 100 companies
  30. 500 Startups + Stanford University Investor Education Program #Venture Capital Unlocked: Learn best practices of Silicon Valley Investing #Startup Accelerator: Build your own accelerator with 500 Startups #VC/Angel 101: How to build an early-stage investment thesis #500VCs
  31. How to build investment thesis Meet REAL startup founders and conduct selection Connection with Silicon Valley investors and mentors Legal docs: cap table and standard terms How to generate deal flow Trends and relevant area of investments 500 Startups + Stanford University Investor Education Program #500VCs
  32. Feb 8th-19th 2016 @ Stanford+500 signup NOW: 
 http://500.vc 500 Startups + Stanford University Investor Education Program #500VCs
  33. Questions? Comments? • More? – http://500.co (our company) – http://500hats.com (my blog) – https://angel.co/500startups (our fund) – Dave McClure, @DaveMcClure

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