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Building #500STRONG
@DaveMcClure - 500 Startups
Stanford ETL - January 2014
This Talk
• How did i get here?
• What is 500 Startups?
• Changes in Tech + Venture Capital
• “The Lean VC”
• Growing 500: #500STRONG
• Global Entrepreneurship
• Being a Loudmouth A-hole in Public
• Q&A, Heckling
!2
This Talk
• How did i get here?

!3
Dave McClure


Founding Partner & Chief Troublemaker, 500 Startups

00’s & 10’s:
• VC: Founders Fund, Facebook fbFund, 500 Startups
• Angel: Mashery, Mint.com, SlideShare, Twilio, Wildfire, SendGrid
• Marketing: PayPal, Simply Hired, Mint.com, oDesk, O’Reilly

!

80’s & 90’s:
• Entrepreneur: Aslan Computing (acq’d by Servinet/Panurgy)
• Developer: Windows / SQL DB consultant (Intel, MSFT)
• Engineer: Johns Hopkins‘88, BS Eng / Applied Math
What a Long Strange Trip…
• Hillbilly in WV + MD (1966-82)
• Math+CS @ JHU (1982-88) + frisbee!
• Geek+Coder @ SF (1989-95)
• Entrepreneur @ Aslan (1992-99)
• Geek+Marketing @ PayPal (2001-04)
• Angel+Blogger @ 500 Hats (2005-08)
• Angel+VC @ Founders Fund (2008-10)
• VC + Sith Lord @ 500 Startups (2010-?)
!5
This Talk
• How did i get here?
• What is 500 Startups?

!6
!7
500 Startups


Global Seed Fund & Startup Accelerator
• What is 500 Startups?

– ~$100M under mgmt, ~$7M annual budget
– seed fund + accelerator (SF, MV, MXC)
– 30 team members (10 investing partners)
– SV, SF, NYC, MEX, BRZ, IND, CHN, SE Asia
– 1000+ Founders / 200+ Mentors
– Conferences, Community, Geeks on a Plane!
– #500STRONG

!

• 650+ Portfolio Co’s / 40+ Countries
– Wildfire (acq GOOG, $350M)
– MakerBot (acq SSYS, $400M)
– Viki (acq Rakuten, $200M)
– Twilio
– SendGrid
– Credit Karma
– Udemy
– Zozi
– ElaCarte
– Virool
500 Startups: Global Seed Fund

Over 150+ startups outside US, in 40+ countries
This Talk
• How did i get here?
• What is 500 Startups?
• Changes in Tech + Venture Capital

!10
Daft Punk Lean Startup:

Simpler, Faster, Cheaper, Smarter
!

1.
2.

# Users, Bandwidth = Bigger.

3.

!
!

Startup Costs = Lower.
Transaction $$$ = Better.

!
➢

Building Product => Cheaper, Faster, Better

➢

Getting Customers => Easier, More Measurable

!
Iterative Product & Marketing Decisions
based on Measured User Behavior
Changes in Tech + VC
•

LESS Capital required to build product, get to market
– Dramatically reduced $$$ on servers, software, bandwidth
– Crowdfunding, KickStarter, Angel List, Funders Club, etc
– Cheap access to online platforms for 100M+ consumers, smallbiz, etc

!

•

MORE Customers via ONLINE platforms (100M-1B+ users)
– Search (Google)
– Social (Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn)
– Mobile (Apple, Android)
– Local (Yelp, Groupon, Living Social -> FB, GOOG, TWTR)
– Media (YouTube, Pinterest, Instagram, Tumblr)
– Comm (Email, WeChat/WhatsApp/Line/IM/Chat, Voice, SMS, etc)

!

•

LOTS of little bets: Accelerators, Angels, Angel List, Small Exits
– Y Combinator, TechStars, AngelPad, 500 Startups
– Capital + Co-working + Mentoring -> Design, Data, Distribution
– “Fast, Cheap Fail”, network effects, quantitative + iterative investments
Platforms 2.0


Search, Social, Mobile,
Video, Messaging
Got Crunched Yet?

Source: Bullpen Capital
Before & After 2 Dot-Com Crashes

Daft Punk Lean Startup: Simpler, Faster, Cheaper, Smarter
Before 2000
• Sun Servers
• Oracle DB
• Exodus Hosting
• 12-24mo dev cycle
• 6-18mo sales cycle
• <100M people online
• $1-2M seed round
• $3-5M Series A
• Sand Hill Road crawl
• Big, Fat, Dinosaur Startup

After 2008
• AWS, Google, PayPal, FB, TW
• Cloud + Open Source SW
• Lean Startup / Startup Wknd
• 3-90d dev cycle
• SaaS / online sales
• >3B people online
• <$100K incub + <$1M seed
• $1-3M Series A
• Angel List global visibility
• Lean, Little, Cockroach Startup
Crunch Good? Crunch Bad?
• Series A bar higher:
• $1M revenue, 1M active users, 10M downloads, 100% YoY growth
• Lots of Incubation / Seed startups will “FAIL”

!
• BUT: Fail Budget = $50-$500K, not $5M+
• Many “failed” startups = ramen-profitable, small acquisition
• … *or* MBA alternative (<$100K)
• Series A/B VCs have LOTS to choose from (not bad)

!
• Overall, founders / market getting smarter
• More focus on customers, problems, revenue
• Many die, some survive (1-5x), some thrive (20x+).
Angel* List: It Rocks.

•
•
•
•
•

Startups & Investors
Syndicates & Backers
Activity & Metrics
Jobs & Talent
Platform & APIs

!
Industry Changes, Challenges
• SW Startup Efficiency, Reduced CapX Costs
• Growing Market, Growing Platforms
• VC Industry Upheavals (2000, 2008)
• Super Angel -> Micro VC: Seed Funds (ex: FRC)
• Incubators & Accelerators (ex: Y Combinator)
• Big VC (ex: A16Z) & Platforms (ex: Angel List)
• http://PreMoney.co
Lots of Little Bets
aka “MoneyBall for Startups”

•
•

VC Evolution: Physician, Scale Thyself (Aug 2012)
MoneyBall for Startups, 500 Startups Investment Thesis (Jul 2010)
This Talk
• How did i get here?
• What is 500 Startups?
• Changes in Tech + Venture Capital
• “The Lean VC”

!20
500 Strategy: “Lots of Little Bets”*

!21

*See Peter Sims book: “Little Bets”
Minimum Viable Team:

Hacker, Hipster, Hustler

• Hacker: engineers & developers
• Hipster: design & user experience (UX)
• Hustler: marketing & business, “growth hacker”
!

1. Build functional prototypes
2. Improve UX so people convert
3. Scale customer acquisition & distribution
The Lean VC:

Lots of Little Bets, Incremental Investment

Method: Invest in lots of startups using incremental
investment, iterative development. Start with
many small experiments, filter out failures, and
expand investment in successes… (Rinse & Repeat).
!
• Incubator: $0-100K (“Build & Validate Product”)
• Seed: $100K-$1M (“Test & Grow Marketing Channels””)
• Venture: $1M-$10M (“Maximize Growth & Revenue”)
Investment Stage #1: 


Product Validation + Customer Usage
• Structure
– 1-3 founders
– $25-$100K investment
– Incubator environment: multiple peers, mentors/advisors

!
• Test Functional Prototype / “Minimum Viable Product” (MVP):
– Prototype->Alpha, ~3-6 months
– Develop Minimal Critical Feature Set => Get to “It Works! Someone Uses It.”
– Improve Design & Usability, Setup Conversion Metrics
– Test Small-Scale Customer Adoption (10-1000 users)

!

• Demonstrate Concept, Reduce Product Risk, Test Functional Use
• Develop Metrics & Filter for Possible Future Investment
Investment Stage #2: 


Market Validation + Revenue Testing
• Structure
– 2-10 person team
– $100K-$1M investment
– Syndicate of Angel Investors / Small VC Funds

!
• Improve Product, Expand Customers, Test Revenue:
–
–
–
–

Alpha->Beta, ~6-12 months
Scale Customer Adoption => “Many People Use It, & They Pay.”
Test Marketing Campaigns, Customer Acquisition Channels + Cost
Test Revenue Generation, Find Profitable Customer Segments

!

• Prove Solution/Benefit, Assess Market Size
• Test Channel Cost, Revenue Opportunity
• Determine Org Structure, Key Hires
Investment Stage #3: 

Revenue Validation + Growth

• Structure
– 5-25 person team
– $1M-$10M investment
– Seed & Venture Investors

!

• Make Money (or Go Big), Get to Sustainability:
–
–
–
–
–

Beta->Production, 12-24 months
Revenue / Growth => “We Can Make (a lot of) Money!”
Mktg Plan => Predictable Channels / Campaigns + Budget
Scalability & Infrastructure, Customer Service & Operations
Connect with Distribution Partners, Expand Growth

!

• Prove/Expand Market, Operationalize Business
• Future Milestones: Profitable/Sustainable, Exit Options
This Talk
• How did i get here?
• What is 500 Startups?
• Changes in Tech + Venture Capital
• “The Lean VC”
• Growing 500: #500STRONG

!27
Fundraising & Team-Building
• Ignorance & Inexperience
• New Fund, Small Fund
• Crazy Strategy, Crazy People
• No Money, No History
• Manufacturing Budget
• Building, Destroying, Believing Your Story
• Hustle & Humility
Strategy, Brand, Marketing
• FUN! IRREVERENCE! FLIP-FLOPS! Etc
– don’t be boring; don’t wear khakis + blue shirt + blazer

•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Lots of Little Bets, Online Platforms
Design, Data, Distribution
Blogging, Facebook, Twitter
#500STRONG: for Geeks, by Geeks
Seed Fund vs Accelerator
Community: from Silicon Valley to the World
Conferences & Events + GeeksOnaPlane.com
Deal Flow, Strategy & Selection
• Lots of Little Bets
• Take Lots of Small Risk, Early & Often
• Differentiation & Branding
• Revenue Emphasis, Small but Real Problems
• Focus on Online Platforms
• Hacker, Hipster, Hustler
• Global vs Local
Portfolio Development
• How do we help? How can we help?
• Importance of (trying to be) Helpful
• Board seats or not? Useful to VC, not founders
• Product, Market, Revenue
• Mentorship & Connections
• Platforms & Distribution
• Downstream Investors & Syndicates
Platform(s) & Community
• Mentors: Engineering, Design, Marketing
• Distribution: Search, Social, Mobile
• Global: LatAm, Asia, India, EU, MENA
• Social: LinkedIn, Quora, Angel List
• Angel List, Second Market, Trusted Insight
• Dashboard, MatterMark, DataFox
Follow-On Strategy
• Should we follow-on? Why or Why Not?
• Signaling Risk vs Portfolio Returns
• Investor opinion shouldn’t matter more than business
fundamentals (if so, that’s a problem)

• Downstream Investor Syndicate is critical
• Using Angel List to drive visibility
• Global Strategies (more capital, connections)
Feedback Loop & Metrics
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Bad decisions = obvious quickly
Good decisions = not obvious for years
Short-term metrics: revenue, users, next round
Sharing best practices for decisions
Lots of Little Bets helps speed up learning
“Winners” vs Numeric Returns
Economics of 1st check vs follow-on
Easy to get big multiples on small checks, BUT
Larger checks with smaller multiples still good
Scaling VC
• Lots of Little Bets? Or a Few Big Bets?
• Power Laws, Singles vs Home Runs
• Focus on Network Effects
• Communication Platforms
• Portfolio Size vs Investment Stage
• Recruiting Thousands of VCs
How Big is MicroVC / Seed Stage Market?
5,000 microVCs invest 100,000 startups/yr @ $500K/startup = $50B/yr
How many people are entrepreneurs? How many startups get started every year?
• ~1% of Humanity is “Entrepreneurial” (def’n: “can create a $10M rev/yr business”)
• 1% x 7B ppl = 70M entrepreneurs, each of which starts 1-5 businesses lifetime
• 1-5 startups / 75 yrs avg life = (~1 startup/25 yrs) * 70M = ~3M startups per year

!
How much capital is needed globally to get seed stage startups rolling?
• Assume 1M-3M startups/yr x $50K-$500K funding/each
• Low: 1M x $50K = $50B/yr (*this is the LOW end estimate)
• High: 5M x $500K = $2.5T/yr (that’s “T” as in “Trillion”…)

!
How many metros? How many investors / metro? How many startups / metro?
• 1 microVC can do 10-20 startups/yr * $50K-$500K = $500K-$10M/yr budget
• 100-500 global metros @ >1-2M ppl can generate ~500-2,000 startups / metro / yr
• guesstimate = ~100K-200K startups/yr in top 200 global metros
• 10-50 micro VCs / metro * 200 metros = 2,000-10,000 microVCs globally
• EST: 5,000 microVCs can deploy $5M/yr each, or $50B/yr in ~100,000 startups !36
This Talk
• How did i get here?
• What is 500 Startups?
• Changes in Tech + Venture Capital
• Growing 500 + “The Lean VC”
• GLOBAL Entrepreneurship

!37
Going Local, Going Global

web gets bigger -> world gets smaller
Local vs Global?
• “Silicon Valley is Unique” — BULLSHIT.

• *we had a 50-70 year head start… they will catch up.

•
•
•
•
•
•

Emerging / Developing Markets: 3-5B+
English, Chinese, Spanish, Arabic
Challenges: Payments, Mobile/Web, Logistics
Challenges: Capital, Mentorship, Exits
Investor Ecosystems, Mentorship & Community
Does the Future look different? (yes, we hope)
Global Trends
• Growth of Global Languages (see MyGengo.com)
– 1B+ speakers: Mandarin, English
– 300-500M+ spkrs: Spanish, Arabic

• Smart Device Proliferation
– mobile, tablet, TV, console, etc

• More Young, More Old ($$$) Users Online
• More Bandwidth, More Video, More Social, More Mobile
• Wealthy Chinese + Indian, Web + IRL Globetrotters ($$$B)
• Acceleration of Global Payment, E-Commerce
• Dramatically Reduced Cost: Product Dev, Customer Acqstn
• Global Distribution Platforms
– US/EU: Apple, Facebook, AMZN, GOOG (Search, YouTube, Gmail, Android), Twitter
– Asia: Baidu, Tencent, Alibaba, Sina, NHN, Yahoo-J, Softbank, Rakuten, Yandex, Mail.RU
This Talk
• How did i get here?
• What is 500 Startups?
• Changes in Tech + Venture Capital
• “The Lean VC”
• Growing 500: #500STRONG
• Global Entrepreneurship
• Being a Loudmouth A-hole in Public
• Q&A, Heckling
!41
Questions? Comments? Heckles?
• Thanks for Listening
• Feedback Appreciated
• We are Hiring + Internships
!
• More Info?
– http://500.co (our company)
– http://500hats.com (my blog)
– https://angel.co/500startups (our fund)
– Dave McClure, @DaveMcClure

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Building 500 Startups: #500STRONG

  • 1. Building #500STRONG @DaveMcClure - 500 Startups Stanford ETL - January 2014
  • 2. This Talk • How did i get here? • What is 500 Startups? • Changes in Tech + Venture Capital • “The Lean VC” • Growing 500: #500STRONG • Global Entrepreneurship • Being a Loudmouth A-hole in Public • Q&A, Heckling !2
  • 3. This Talk • How did i get here? !3
  • 4. Dave McClure
 Founding Partner & Chief Troublemaker, 500 Startups 00’s & 10’s: • VC: Founders Fund, Facebook fbFund, 500 Startups • Angel: Mashery, Mint.com, SlideShare, Twilio, Wildfire, SendGrid • Marketing: PayPal, Simply Hired, Mint.com, oDesk, O’Reilly ! 80’s & 90’s: • Entrepreneur: Aslan Computing (acq’d by Servinet/Panurgy) • Developer: Windows / SQL DB consultant (Intel, MSFT) • Engineer: Johns Hopkins‘88, BS Eng / Applied Math
  • 5. What a Long Strange Trip… • Hillbilly in WV + MD (1966-82) • Math+CS @ JHU (1982-88) + frisbee! • Geek+Coder @ SF (1989-95) • Entrepreneur @ Aslan (1992-99) • Geek+Marketing @ PayPal (2001-04) • Angel+Blogger @ 500 Hats (2005-08) • Angel+VC @ Founders Fund (2008-10) • VC + Sith Lord @ 500 Startups (2010-?) !5
  • 6. This Talk • How did i get here? • What is 500 Startups? !6
  • 7. !7
  • 8. 500 Startups
 Global Seed Fund & Startup Accelerator • What is 500 Startups? – ~$100M under mgmt, ~$7M annual budget – seed fund + accelerator (SF, MV, MXC) – 30 team members (10 investing partners) – SV, SF, NYC, MEX, BRZ, IND, CHN, SE Asia – 1000+ Founders / 200+ Mentors – Conferences, Community, Geeks on a Plane! – #500STRONG ! • 650+ Portfolio Co’s / 40+ Countries – Wildfire (acq GOOG, $350M) – MakerBot (acq SSYS, $400M) – Viki (acq Rakuten, $200M) – Twilio – SendGrid – Credit Karma – Udemy – Zozi – ElaCarte – Virool
  • 9. 500 Startups: Global Seed Fund
 Over 150+ startups outside US, in 40+ countries
  • 10. This Talk • How did i get here? • What is 500 Startups? • Changes in Tech + Venture Capital !10
  • 11. Daft Punk Lean Startup:
 Simpler, Faster, Cheaper, Smarter ! 1. 2. # Users, Bandwidth = Bigger. 3. ! ! Startup Costs = Lower. Transaction $$$ = Better. ! ➢ Building Product => Cheaper, Faster, Better ➢ Getting Customers => Easier, More Measurable ! Iterative Product & Marketing Decisions based on Measured User Behavior
  • 12. Changes in Tech + VC • LESS Capital required to build product, get to market – Dramatically reduced $$$ on servers, software, bandwidth – Crowdfunding, KickStarter, Angel List, Funders Club, etc – Cheap access to online platforms for 100M+ consumers, smallbiz, etc ! • MORE Customers via ONLINE platforms (100M-1B+ users) – Search (Google) – Social (Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn) – Mobile (Apple, Android) – Local (Yelp, Groupon, Living Social -> FB, GOOG, TWTR) – Media (YouTube, Pinterest, Instagram, Tumblr) – Comm (Email, WeChat/WhatsApp/Line/IM/Chat, Voice, SMS, etc) ! • LOTS of little bets: Accelerators, Angels, Angel List, Small Exits – Y Combinator, TechStars, AngelPad, 500 Startups – Capital + Co-working + Mentoring -> Design, Data, Distribution – “Fast, Cheap Fail”, network effects, quantitative + iterative investments
  • 13. Platforms 2.0
 Search, Social, Mobile, Video, Messaging
  • 14. Got Crunched Yet? Source: Bullpen Capital
  • 15. Before & After 2 Dot-Com Crashes
 Daft Punk Lean Startup: Simpler, Faster, Cheaper, Smarter Before 2000 • Sun Servers • Oracle DB • Exodus Hosting • 12-24mo dev cycle • 6-18mo sales cycle • <100M people online • $1-2M seed round • $3-5M Series A • Sand Hill Road crawl • Big, Fat, Dinosaur Startup After 2008 • AWS, Google, PayPal, FB, TW • Cloud + Open Source SW • Lean Startup / Startup Wknd • 3-90d dev cycle • SaaS / online sales • >3B people online • <$100K incub + <$1M seed • $1-3M Series A • Angel List global visibility • Lean, Little, Cockroach Startup
  • 16. Crunch Good? Crunch Bad? • Series A bar higher: • $1M revenue, 1M active users, 10M downloads, 100% YoY growth • Lots of Incubation / Seed startups will “FAIL” ! • BUT: Fail Budget = $50-$500K, not $5M+ • Many “failed” startups = ramen-profitable, small acquisition • … *or* MBA alternative (<$100K) • Series A/B VCs have LOTS to choose from (not bad) ! • Overall, founders / market getting smarter • More focus on customers, problems, revenue • Many die, some survive (1-5x), some thrive (20x+).
  • 17. Angel* List: It Rocks. • • • • • Startups & Investors Syndicates & Backers Activity & Metrics Jobs & Talent Platform & APIs !
  • 18. Industry Changes, Challenges • SW Startup Efficiency, Reduced CapX Costs • Growing Market, Growing Platforms • VC Industry Upheavals (2000, 2008) • Super Angel -> Micro VC: Seed Funds (ex: FRC) • Incubators & Accelerators (ex: Y Combinator) • Big VC (ex: A16Z) & Platforms (ex: Angel List) • http://PreMoney.co
  • 19. Lots of Little Bets aka “MoneyBall for Startups” • • VC Evolution: Physician, Scale Thyself (Aug 2012) MoneyBall for Startups, 500 Startups Investment Thesis (Jul 2010)
  • 20. This Talk • How did i get here? • What is 500 Startups? • Changes in Tech + Venture Capital • “The Lean VC” !20
  • 21. 500 Strategy: “Lots of Little Bets”* !21 *See Peter Sims book: “Little Bets”
  • 22. Minimum Viable Team:
 Hacker, Hipster, Hustler • Hacker: engineers & developers • Hipster: design & user experience (UX) • Hustler: marketing & business, “growth hacker” ! 1. Build functional prototypes 2. Improve UX so people convert 3. Scale customer acquisition & distribution
  • 23. The Lean VC:
 Lots of Little Bets, Incremental Investment Method: Invest in lots of startups using incremental investment, iterative development. Start with many small experiments, filter out failures, and expand investment in successes… (Rinse & Repeat). ! • Incubator: $0-100K (“Build & Validate Product”) • Seed: $100K-$1M (“Test & Grow Marketing Channels””) • Venture: $1M-$10M (“Maximize Growth & Revenue”)
  • 24. Investment Stage #1: 
 Product Validation + Customer Usage • Structure – 1-3 founders – $25-$100K investment – Incubator environment: multiple peers, mentors/advisors ! • Test Functional Prototype / “Minimum Viable Product” (MVP): – Prototype->Alpha, ~3-6 months – Develop Minimal Critical Feature Set => Get to “It Works! Someone Uses It.” – Improve Design & Usability, Setup Conversion Metrics – Test Small-Scale Customer Adoption (10-1000 users) ! • Demonstrate Concept, Reduce Product Risk, Test Functional Use • Develop Metrics & Filter for Possible Future Investment
  • 25. Investment Stage #2: 
 Market Validation + Revenue Testing • Structure – 2-10 person team – $100K-$1M investment – Syndicate of Angel Investors / Small VC Funds ! • Improve Product, Expand Customers, Test Revenue: – – – – Alpha->Beta, ~6-12 months Scale Customer Adoption => “Many People Use It, & They Pay.” Test Marketing Campaigns, Customer Acquisition Channels + Cost Test Revenue Generation, Find Profitable Customer Segments ! • Prove Solution/Benefit, Assess Market Size • Test Channel Cost, Revenue Opportunity • Determine Org Structure, Key Hires
  • 26. Investment Stage #3: 
 Revenue Validation + Growth • Structure – 5-25 person team – $1M-$10M investment – Seed & Venture Investors ! • Make Money (or Go Big), Get to Sustainability: – – – – – Beta->Production, 12-24 months Revenue / Growth => “We Can Make (a lot of) Money!” Mktg Plan => Predictable Channels / Campaigns + Budget Scalability & Infrastructure, Customer Service & Operations Connect with Distribution Partners, Expand Growth ! • Prove/Expand Market, Operationalize Business • Future Milestones: Profitable/Sustainable, Exit Options
  • 27. This Talk • How did i get here? • What is 500 Startups? • Changes in Tech + Venture Capital • “The Lean VC” • Growing 500: #500STRONG !27
  • 28. Fundraising & Team-Building • Ignorance & Inexperience • New Fund, Small Fund • Crazy Strategy, Crazy People • No Money, No History • Manufacturing Budget • Building, Destroying, Believing Your Story • Hustle & Humility
  • 29. Strategy, Brand, Marketing • FUN! IRREVERENCE! FLIP-FLOPS! Etc – don’t be boring; don’t wear khakis + blue shirt + blazer • • • • • • • Lots of Little Bets, Online Platforms Design, Data, Distribution Blogging, Facebook, Twitter #500STRONG: for Geeks, by Geeks Seed Fund vs Accelerator Community: from Silicon Valley to the World Conferences & Events + GeeksOnaPlane.com
  • 30. Deal Flow, Strategy & Selection • Lots of Little Bets • Take Lots of Small Risk, Early & Often • Differentiation & Branding • Revenue Emphasis, Small but Real Problems • Focus on Online Platforms • Hacker, Hipster, Hustler • Global vs Local
  • 31. Portfolio Development • How do we help? How can we help? • Importance of (trying to be) Helpful • Board seats or not? Useful to VC, not founders • Product, Market, Revenue • Mentorship & Connections • Platforms & Distribution • Downstream Investors & Syndicates
  • 32. Platform(s) & Community • Mentors: Engineering, Design, Marketing • Distribution: Search, Social, Mobile • Global: LatAm, Asia, India, EU, MENA • Social: LinkedIn, Quora, Angel List • Angel List, Second Market, Trusted Insight • Dashboard, MatterMark, DataFox
  • 33. Follow-On Strategy • Should we follow-on? Why or Why Not? • Signaling Risk vs Portfolio Returns • Investor opinion shouldn’t matter more than business fundamentals (if so, that’s a problem) • Downstream Investor Syndicate is critical • Using Angel List to drive visibility • Global Strategies (more capital, connections)
  • 34. Feedback Loop & Metrics • • • • • • • • • Bad decisions = obvious quickly Good decisions = not obvious for years Short-term metrics: revenue, users, next round Sharing best practices for decisions Lots of Little Bets helps speed up learning “Winners” vs Numeric Returns Economics of 1st check vs follow-on Easy to get big multiples on small checks, BUT Larger checks with smaller multiples still good
  • 35. Scaling VC • Lots of Little Bets? Or a Few Big Bets? • Power Laws, Singles vs Home Runs • Focus on Network Effects • Communication Platforms • Portfolio Size vs Investment Stage • Recruiting Thousands of VCs
  • 36. How Big is MicroVC / Seed Stage Market? 5,000 microVCs invest 100,000 startups/yr @ $500K/startup = $50B/yr How many people are entrepreneurs? How many startups get started every year? • ~1% of Humanity is “Entrepreneurial” (def’n: “can create a $10M rev/yr business”) • 1% x 7B ppl = 70M entrepreneurs, each of which starts 1-5 businesses lifetime • 1-5 startups / 75 yrs avg life = (~1 startup/25 yrs) * 70M = ~3M startups per year ! How much capital is needed globally to get seed stage startups rolling? • Assume 1M-3M startups/yr x $50K-$500K funding/each • Low: 1M x $50K = $50B/yr (*this is the LOW end estimate) • High: 5M x $500K = $2.5T/yr (that’s “T” as in “Trillion”…) ! How many metros? How many investors / metro? How many startups / metro? • 1 microVC can do 10-20 startups/yr * $50K-$500K = $500K-$10M/yr budget • 100-500 global metros @ >1-2M ppl can generate ~500-2,000 startups / metro / yr • guesstimate = ~100K-200K startups/yr in top 200 global metros • 10-50 micro VCs / metro * 200 metros = 2,000-10,000 microVCs globally • EST: 5,000 microVCs can deploy $5M/yr each, or $50B/yr in ~100,000 startups !36
  • 37. This Talk • How did i get here? • What is 500 Startups? • Changes in Tech + Venture Capital • Growing 500 + “The Lean VC” • GLOBAL Entrepreneurship !37
  • 38. Going Local, Going Global
 web gets bigger -> world gets smaller
  • 39. Local vs Global? • “Silicon Valley is Unique” — BULLSHIT. • *we had a 50-70 year head start… they will catch up. • • • • • • Emerging / Developing Markets: 3-5B+ English, Chinese, Spanish, Arabic Challenges: Payments, Mobile/Web, Logistics Challenges: Capital, Mentorship, Exits Investor Ecosystems, Mentorship & Community Does the Future look different? (yes, we hope)
  • 40. Global Trends • Growth of Global Languages (see MyGengo.com) – 1B+ speakers: Mandarin, English – 300-500M+ spkrs: Spanish, Arabic • Smart Device Proliferation – mobile, tablet, TV, console, etc • More Young, More Old ($$$) Users Online • More Bandwidth, More Video, More Social, More Mobile • Wealthy Chinese + Indian, Web + IRL Globetrotters ($$$B) • Acceleration of Global Payment, E-Commerce • Dramatically Reduced Cost: Product Dev, Customer Acqstn • Global Distribution Platforms – US/EU: Apple, Facebook, AMZN, GOOG (Search, YouTube, Gmail, Android), Twitter – Asia: Baidu, Tencent, Alibaba, Sina, NHN, Yahoo-J, Softbank, Rakuten, Yandex, Mail.RU
  • 41. This Talk • How did i get here? • What is 500 Startups? • Changes in Tech + Venture Capital • “The Lean VC” • Growing 500: #500STRONG • Global Entrepreneurship • Being a Loudmouth A-hole in Public • Q&A, Heckling !41
  • 42. Questions? Comments? Heckles? • Thanks for Listening • Feedback Appreciated • We are Hiring + Internships ! • More Info? – http://500.co (our company) – http://500hats.com (my blog) – https://angel.co/500startups (our fund) – Dave McClure, @DaveMcClure