Deaths/day stabilizing Active Infections trend beginning to show a crest formation. RO below 1 in Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai

1. Covid 19 Stats in India –
Update 5
Review of key data and presentation of a projection model
Data updated till 3.08.20
Data Sources: https://www.covid19india.org/; https://www.worldometers.info/

2. Key Highlights
• Deaths/day stabilizing
• Active Infections trend beginning to show a crest formation.
• RO below 1 in Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai

3. Agenda
• Presentation of key data for All India 10 Mins
• Presentation of key data for Hot Spots 10 Mins
• Discussion 5 Mins
• Presentation of update on projection model 10 Mins
• Discussion 15 Mins

4. All India Data

5. • Testing has been ramped
up to over 500,000 tests
per day.
• The % positive rate is now
around 11% and showing
signs of stabilizing.
• Internationally, the norm is
that a 10% positivity rate
indicates that we are
testing enough. India is
around that level now.

6. • We are recording over
50,000 new infections/day
with a doubling rate of 23
days. Cumulative infections
stand at 1,855,331 on
3.08.20
• However, new infections
being discovered are a
function of how many tests
are being conducted. The
real no of infections is
probably far higher than
what is being discovered.
• IMPORTANT – Infections
are therefore not a reliable
indicator for forecasting
future trends. We will
focus on deaths as the key
parameter for forecasting.

7. • Cumulative Deaths stand
at 38,971 as on 3.08.20
• The rate of growths in
daily deaths is slowing as
we will see later.

8. • Cum Infections = Cum
Recoveries + Cum Deaths
• Recoveries have been showing
an encouraging trend. However
the Recovery Rate is not a
useful parameter. Eventually,
the recovery rate should reach
almost 100% as the mortality
rate in total infections is very
low.
• Active Infections are still
growing, though the rate of
growth is slowing down. This is
leading to a crest formation as
we will see later.

9. • The death rate trend is steadily
declining. At present it is 2.1%.
• Deaths may occur afterwards from the
same group. This will push up the rate
a little.
• As discussed earlier the real level of
infections in the population may be
very much higher. In that case the real
death rate is probably much lower than
what is shown here.
• India’s death rate is lower than all
major countries. International media
has questioned this (BBC, NY Times
and Washington Post) saying that
deaths are not being properly
reported. We will discuss this point
later.

10. Hot Spots Data

11. • Mumbai has been the worst
affected by Covid 19 followed
by Chennai, Delhi, and
Ahmedabad.
• Testing has been high in
Delhi and Chennai leading to
a high rate of discovered
cases.
• The disease has still not
significantly penetrated
outside the major hot spots
though it is spreading faster
now.
• Is it possible that social
distancing and other control
measures can be more
effectively implemented in
small towns/rural areas? This
may lead to earlier peaking
out.

12. • Rest of India
contribution has grown
from 33% to 40% in
two weeks indicating
that the infection is
spreading into smaller
towns.
• Old hot spots are
declining as we will see
later.

13. • The charts show weekly growth rates in deaths/million for key cities that were impacted.
• Older hot spots growth rates (Mumbai, Delhi, Ahmedabad and even Chennai) are declining rapidly. Rest of
Maharashtra is still a problem. Bangalore has made good progress in controlling the virus in the last two weeks.

15. Hot Spot States
• Maharashtra has reached a plateau. Even after Mumbai started declining,
Thane, Pune, Raigad and other neighbouring districts started growing
rapidly.
• Karnataka, led by Bangalore has started coming under control. AP is also
stabilizing. While Chennai is declining, rest of Tamil Nadu is growing.
• Gujarat after declining for a long time has started growing outside
Ahmedabad.
• West Bengal, UP and Bihar are worrying. The base is low but growing.

16. Projection Model for India

17. Basis for Projection
• Most countries have seen a fall in new infections and deaths per day
after some time. Some countries like India have yet to experience
this.
• The response of various counties is different in terms of when this
decline started.
• Our model will use per capita deaths and infections on the day the
decline started in each country to model a possible scenario for India.
As stated earlier, deaths are a more reliable indicator than infections
for projection.

18. Herd Immunity and R0
• There is some speculation on why the virus has declined in so many countries.
• ‘Herd Immunity’ comes when approximately 60% of the population is immune
either by a vaccine or because they have had the disease already. This has not
happened anywhere in the world.
• Social distancing, hand washing, and masking can help to reduce the R0 value
even if Herd Immunity has not been achieved. Perhaps this is the reason why
infections and deaths have declined.
• This presentation and projection model does not seek to answer this question. It
is merely based on the empirical evidence of declines having taken place in most
countries.

19. Infections Deaths Infections Deaths
Malaysia 3.04.20 29.03.20 103 1
Thailand 29.04.20 NA 42 -
Indonesia 13.05.20 NA 57 -
Bangladesh NA NA - -
Pakistan NA NA - -
Turkey 11.04.20 19.04.20 619 24
Iran 30.03.20 4.04.20 495 41
Italy 26.03.20 27.03.20 1,333 151
Spain 1.04.20 2.04.20 2,227 221
France 3.04.20 15.04.20 1,171 263
Germany 2.04.20 15.04.20 1,012 45
Russia 11.05.20 NA 1,517 -
UK 6.05.20 21.04.20 2,962 298
USA 24.04.20 21.04.20 2,797 138
Brazil NA NA - -
Date of Decline Start Per Million on that date

20. Projection Update
Population Per Mn Deaths on Day Decline Starts Projected Deaths on Day Decline Starts
Low Medium High Low Medium High
India 1,37,843,247 25 40 50 34,461 55,137 68,922
• May 24th Presentation – Projected date for decline in deaths/day was First Half of July 2020 based on a
doubling rate of deaths per day of 13 days.
• 1st Update on 7th June – Projected date was pushed back to Second Half of July 2020 as the doubling rate
had slowed to 17 days.
• 2nd Update on 21st June – Appeared that decline may start soon as the growth in death rates had slowed
further.

21. Country Wise Variations
• The disease has impacted various countries differently. Broadly, the following clusters emerge:
• UK/USA are the worst hit. While deaths/day have started declining in both countries they will have a slow recovery.
• Spain/France/Italy have had a very sharp increase followed by a steep fall.
• Germany is the outlier in Europe as they have managed to contain the infection better than other neighbouring countries.
• Turkey and Iran in West Asia have fared better than their European counterparts. There is a ‘second wave’ of infections
happening in Iran.
• South East Asia, Africa and ANZ have largely escaped the brunt of the disease.
• It is outside the scope of this discussion to assign reasons for this differential behaviour.
Speculation about natural immunity, BCG vaccination, endemic malaria, hot weather etc are
continuing.
• Based on the differential response, India looks set to behave more like its West Asian
counterparts. The rest of South Asia may also follow suit.

22. Total Cases Total Deaths Total Cases/Mn Total Deaths/Mn Total Tests Total Tests/Mn Population
1 UK 3,05,623 46,210 4,500 680 1,67,17,684 2,46,141 6,79,19,112
2 Spain 3,44,134 28,472 7,360 609 66,78,414 1,42,834 4,67,56,500
3 Peru 4,33,100 19,811 13,119 600 24,17,857 73,241 3,30,12,553
4 Italy 2,48,229 35,166 4,106 582 69,40,801 1,14,813 6,04,53,293
5 USA 48,62,285 1,58,931 14,682 480 6,09,39,722 1,84,007 33,11,82,250
6 France 1,91,295 30,294 2,930 464 29,82,302 45,680 6,52,87,125
7 Brazil 27,51,665 94,702 12,937 445 1,31,96,132 62,042 21,26,98,326
8 Mexico 4,43,813 48,012 3,439 372 10,11,050 7,834 12,90,55,063
9 Canada 1,17,031 8,947 3,098 237 41,78,195 1,10,615 3,77,72,312
10 Colombia 3,27,850 11,017 6,437 216 16,85,530 33,094 5,09,31,819
Top 10 Countries ranked by Cum Deaths/Mn

23. Countries around same level as India on
Deaths/Mn
Total Cases Total Deaths Total Cases/Mn Total Deaths/Mn Total Tests Total Tests/Mn Population
18 Turkey 2,33,851 5,747 2,770 68 49,27,217 58,365 8,44,20,896
19 Egypt 94,640 4,888 923 48 1,35,000 1,317 10,25,00,680
20 Poland 47,469 1,732 1,254 46 23,15,210 61,180 3,78,42,640
21 Ukraine 74,219 1,764 1,698 40 10,81,146 24,736 4,37,08,000
22 Afghanistan 36,747 1,288 942 33 89,377 2,292 3,90,02,243
23 India 18,58,689 39,002 1,346 28 2,08,64,750 15,106 1,38,12,33,876
24 Algeria 31,972 1,239 728 28 4,39,19,580
25 Pakistan 2,80,461 5,999 1,268 27 20,31,955 9,184 22,12,60,636
26 Indonesia 1,13,134 5,302 413 19 15,52,141 5,669 27,37,84,671
27 Bangladesh 2,42,102 3,184 1,469 19 11,93,544 7,241 16,48,37,963
28 Philippines 1,06,330 2,104 969 19 15,85,957 14,456 10,97,10,763

24. The best performing countries on Deaths/Mn
Total Cases Total Deaths Total Cases/Mn Total Deaths/Mn Total Tests Total Tests/Mn Population
32 Japan 38,687 1,012 306 8 8,49,115 6,716 12,64,39,019
33 Kenya 22,597 382 419 7 3,18,376 5,910 5,38,71,430
34 S. Korea 14,423 301 281 6 15,89,780 31,006 5,12,73,372
35 Ghana 37,812 191 1,215 6 3,99,446 12,832 3,11,28,156
36 Venezuela 20,754 180 730 6 15,54,624 54,686 2,84,28,157
37 Uzbekistan 26,550 161 792 5 13,77,915 41,117 3,35,12,049
38 Nigeria 44,129 896 214 4 2,87,532 1,392 20,65,64,295
39 Malaysia 9,001 125 278 4 9,83,297 30,346 3,24,02,973
40 China 84,464 4,634 59 3 9,04,10,000 62,814 1,43,93,23,776
41 Ethiopia 19,289 336 167 3 4,44,226 3,856 11,52,00,324
42 DRC 9,133 215 102 2 8,97,79,764
43 Angola 1,280 58 39 2 64,747 1,965 3,29,47,881
44 Nepal 20,750 57 711 2 7,11,309 24,375 2,91,82,185
45 Thailand 3,321 58 48 0.8 7,49,213 10,731 6,98,16,463
46 Tanzania 509 21 9 0.4 5,98,72,381
47 Mozambique 1,973 14 63 0.4 60,473 1,930 3,13,26,757
48 Myanmar 355 6 7 0.1 1,18,127 2,170 5,44,43,404
49 Uganda 1,195 5 26 0.1 2,80,747 6,122 4,58,55,954
50 Vietnam 652 8 7 0.08 4,82,456 4,952 9,74,18,299

25. Seropositive Surveys
• Various surveys have been conducted but no official results have been
released. Some press articles are quoted below.
• May Data showed: 40% in an Ahmedabad cluster; 36% in Dharavi
• June Data showed 14.4% of ALL of Kolkata
• July Data showed 23.5% of ALL of Delhi
• July TIFR and Niti Aayog survey showed 57% in Mumbai slums in 3 wards
and 16% in non slum areas

26. R0 Value http://pracriti.iitd.ac.in
• At the start of the pandemic, India RO was estimated at around 2
• India RO for July 1.16
• RO values in Delhi have remained below 1 throughout July. Currently Delhi is at 0.66, Mumbai at
0.81 and Chennai at 0.86
• Values as on 3.08.20 as estimated by the IIT Delhi Model
Maharashtra 1.05
Gujarat 1.17
Tamil Nadu 1.11
Andhra Pradesh 1.86
Bihar 1.81
UP 1.72

27. Discussion
• RO values have been steadily declining. It is fair to say that early lockdowns
have helped. So has social distancing and masking. Major cities (Delhi,
Mumbai and Chennai) are below 1.0 implying that the virus will decline.
This is also borne out by the decline in the rate of growth of deaths/day.
• Seropositive surveys (official data is not released yet) indicate surprisingly
high rates of positivity.
• Both these factors are positive, indicating a gradual decline in the
pandemic.

28. Mathematical Projections - Alternative
Parameters
• Cumulative Deaths
• Daily Deaths 7 DMA
• Day on Day Deaths Growth Rate
• Growth in Active Infections
• Daily Deaths/Active Infections

29. • The Cumulative Deaths
curve polynomial line
of best fit is showing a
crest forming. R Square
value is very high
indicating a good fit for
the projection.
• This forecast should be
viewed with caution.
What it indicates is
that deaths will stop
from End August. The
decline in deaths per
day should start earlier.
The curve is highly
sensitive to random
daily fluctuations even
though R Square is
high.

30. • This curve has not
changed significantly
since two weeks ago,
• Daily deaths are
expected to peak on
6th August when the
7 DMA is at around
800
• R Square Value is
also good indicating
a good fit for the
projection

31. • The Growth in day on day
deaths has been showing a
declining trend.
• Daily deaths are slated to
stop growing as per this
trend line by 23rd August.
• However, the R square
value is very low and
hence this forecast should
be viewed with caution.

32. • For the first time, the
trend line of active
infections is beginning
to form a crest. This
means that the rate of
growth of active
infections is slowing
down. As per the trend,
this will start declining
at the All India level on
15th August.
• The declining trend in
active infections is most
visible in Delhi already
and also in Haryana.

33. • Daily deaths as a
percentage of active
infections is another
parameter we have been
tracking.
• This ratio is projected to
reach zero on 23rd August
indicating that deaths will
stop.
• This is a drastic projection
and needs to be viewed
with caution especially as
the R Square value is low

34. Day of Decline Start Cum Deaths on that Day Forecast Reliability (R Square)
Correlative Forecast
24th May First Half of July 35,000
7th June Second Half of July 35,000
21st June End June 18,000
Mathematical Projections 4th
August
Cumulative Deaths Deaths to stop on End August 58,000 Very High – However the
curve is very sensitive to
random daily changes
Daily Deaths 7 DMA 6th August for decline to start.
7 DMA value on that day will
be 800
41,000 Very High
Day on Day Deaths Growth
Rate 7 DMA
23rd August 70,000 Low
Active Infections Active Infections to decline
from 15th August
48,000 High
Daily Deaths/Active Infections Deaths to stop on 23th August 70,000 Low

35. Directions
• The last two weeks have seen a stabilizing in deaths/day. Decline in established hot spots while new areas are growing.
• RO values are declining. Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai are below 1. Seropositive studies are showing high levels. Both
indicators are positive.
• The return of migrant workers to their home states have still not led to a major spurt in deaths in West Bengal, UP and
Bihar though the trends are going up.
• The trend in Active Infections is showing a crest formation for the first time led by a decline in Active Cases in Delhi.
• Based on current trends, we can expect a decline in deaths per day to start around the first half of August provided
Maharashtra starts declining and no new anomalies come up. This date has been fluctuating a bit but overall the likelihood
of a decline starting soon is still reasonable.
• The major risk is that the rural hinterland will see an explosion of cases after some time. This view has been expressed by
Dr Ashish Jha of Harvard.

36. Thank You!
Please mail me at debubhatnagar@gmail.com
with any comments.
Disclaimer: These projections and analysis are not official and are the work of an
amateur. They should not be the basis of any decision making.