The co-relative model presented on 24.05.20 has been reasonably successful in predicting the date for first decline in deaths/day to start. Decline commenced on 15.09.20 The decline has been faster than anticipated. After a plateau in November and early December a declining trend is visible currently North India’s spike after Diwali has come under control. As of now all states are stable/declining In the next 30 days we may expect Deaths/Day to slowly decline further 71 cases of the new UK variant have been observed in India – no indications of local spread as of now. Genome has been mapped in UK and India. Implications for vaccine effectiveness awaited.  Vaccination logistics and process seem comprehensive and well thought through  Vaccination should start within a week or ten days

1. Covid 19 Stats in India –
Update 15
Review of key data and presentation of a projection model
Data updated till 5.01.21
Data Sources: https://www.covid19india.org/; https://www.worldometers.info/;
https://censusindia.gov.in/2011-prov-results/paper2/data_files/india/paper2_1.pdf
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-
chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&area
sRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&byDate=0&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=dea
ths

2. Key Highlights
• The highest point for Deaths/Day was 1281 on 15th September. This peak has held till now (113 days)
• Deaths/Day have crossed 1000 on only 1 day after 3rd October. Declining trend had set in followed by a plateau and a slow
decline post the Diwali spike in North India
• New/Active cases have also peaked and were declining.
• The highest no of cases was on 16th September at 97,856. That peak has held till now.
• Active Cases peaked at 10,17,718 on 17th September
• Both New and Active cases are declining now
• Decline in cases and deaths has been faster than anticipated
• Likely trend in Deaths/Day for the next 30 days is a decline
• A second wave for India as a whole is possible but unlikely
• The new variant observed in UK has been observed in India but has not resulted in a spike until now
• Two vaccines have been approved for emergency use in India (Astra Zeneca/SII and Bharat Biotech). Bharat Biotech is to
be used as a back up in ‘clinical trial mode’

3. Projection Model for India

4. Basis for Projection
• Most countries have seen a fall in new infections and deaths per day
after some time. Some countries like India have yet to experience
this.
• The response of various counties is different in terms of when this
decline started.
• Our model will use per capita deaths and infections on the day the
decline started in each country to model a possible scenario for India.
As stated earlier, deaths are a more reliable indicator than infections
for projection.

5. Herd Immunity and R0
• There is some speculation on why the virus has declined in so many countries.
• ‘Herd Immunity’ comes when approximately 60% of the population is immune
either by a vaccine or because they have had the disease already. This has not
happened anywhere in the world. However there is new thinking on this that we
will discuss later.
• Social distancing, hand washing, and masking can help to reduce the R0 value
even if Herd Immunity has not been achieved. Perhaps this is the reason why
infections and deaths have declined.
• This presentation and projection model does not seek to answer this question. It
is merely based on the empirical evidence of declines having taken place in most
countries.

6. Infections Deaths Infections Deaths
Malaysia 3.04.20 29.03.20 103 1
Thailand 29.04.20 NA 42 -
Indonesia 13.05.20 NA 57 -
Bangladesh NA NA - -
Pakistan NA NA - -
Turkey 11.04.20 19.04.20 619 24
Iran 30.03.20 4.04.20 495 41
Italy 26.03.20 27.03.20 1,333 151
Spain 1.04.20 2.04.20 2,227 221
France 3.04.20 15.04.20 1,171 263
Germany 2.04.20 15.04.20 1,012 45
Russia 11.05.20 NA 1,517 -
UK 6.05.20 21.04.20 2,962 298
USA 24.04.20 21.04.20 2,797 138
Brazil NA NA - -
Date of Decline Start Per Million on that date

7. Country Wise Variations
• The disease has impacted various countries differently. Broadly, the following clusters emerge:
• UK/USA are the worst hit. While deaths/day have started declining in both countries they will have a slow recovery.
• Spain/France/Italy have had a very sharp increase followed by a steep fall.
• Germany is the outlier in Europe as they have managed to contain the infection better than other neighbouring countries.
• Turkey and Iran in West Asia have fared better than their European counterparts. There is a ‘second wave’ of infections
happening in Iran.
• South East Asia, Africa and ANZ have largely escaped the brunt of the disease.
• It is outside the scope of this discussion to assign reasons for this differential behaviour.
Speculation about natural immunity, BCG vaccination, endemic malaria, hot weather etc are
continuing.
• Based on the differential response, India looks set to behave more like its West Asian
counterparts. The rest of South Asia may also follow suit.

8. Projection Update
Population Per Mn Deaths on Day Decline Starts Projected Deaths on Day Decline Starts
Low Medium High Low Medium High
India 1,37,843,247 25 40 50 34,461 55,137 68,922
• May 24th Presentation – Projected date for decline in deaths/day was in July 2020 based on a doubling rate
of deaths per day of 13 days.
• Actual decline (this has held for 113 days now) has commenced from 15th September when the cumulative
deaths were 82,091 corresponding to 75 Deaths/Mn

9. Agenda
• Presentation of key data for All India
• State wise data
• Covid vaccine update for India
• Discussion

10. All India Data

11. • Testing has been slowly
declining. Current levels
are around 800,000 per
day.
• The % positive rate has
declined to close to 2%.
This is a good indication
that the infection is on the
wane.
• Focus has shifted back to
RT PCR tests
We will continue to use Deaths, not Cases as the main parameter for analysis and
forecasting

12. • Death rate is stable at 1.45%

13. • New Infections/Day after a plateau in November are
trending downwards. Highest point was on 16th
September at 97,856
• Active Infections are showing a similar trend. Highest point
was on 17th September at 10,17,718 active infections
• The load on the healthcare system has significantly
reduced from the peak in September

14. • A crest has formed in Deaths/Day. As mentioned
earlier, the peak of 1281 Deaths on 15.09.20 is
still holding (113 days)
• A plateau had formed at around 500 deaths/day
in November. However recent trends are
downwards.
• Current 7 DMA of daily deaths is 239. Around the
same level as Early June 2020.

15. State Level Analysis

16. • As of 5.01.21, there are no states
that are still rising. This has been the
status for the past 2 weeks
• 67% of the 7 DMA consists of states
that are declining
• 33% of the 7 DMA consists of states
that are stable

17. • Most of the country is
currently declining

18. • The stable states are
dominated by Kerala which
has stopped growing but has
not yet shown a clear decline

19. India – Is a second wave
possible?

20. Country Total Total Tot Cases/ Tot Deaths/ Population
Cases Deaths Per Mn Per Mn
1 Italy 19,38,083 68,447 32,077 1,133 6,04,19,904
2 Peru 9,95,899 37,034 30,010 1,116 3,31,85,778
3 Spain 18,17,448 48,926 38,865 1,046 4,67,63,305
4 UK 20,04,219 67,075 29,451 986 6,80,53,296
5 USA 1,80,77,768 3,23,401 54,465 974 33,19,12,730
6 France 24,60,555 60,418 37,657 925 6,53,41,427
7 Argentina 15,37,169 41,763 33,866 920 4,53,89,708
8 Mexico 13,13,675 1,17,876 10,139 910 12,95,65,502
9 Brazil 72,13,155 1,86,356 33,822 874 21,32,67,162
10 Colombia 14,96,062 40,268 29,256 787 5,11,36,189
11 Poland 11,94,110 25,254 31,568 668 3,78,27,071
12 Iran 11,52,072 53,448 13,635 633 8,44,94,153
13 South Africa 9,12,477 24,539 15,295 411 5,96,57,360
14 Ukraine 9,56,123 16,469 21,925 378 4,36,09,455
15 Canada 5,01,594 14,154 13,236 373 3,78,96,948
16 Russia 28,19,429 50,347 19,316 345 14,59,63,926
17 Germany 14,93,961 26,414 17,804 315 8,39,09,818
18 Iraq 5,83,118 12,680 14,348 312 4,06,39,754
19 Turkey 20,04,285 17,851 23,646 211 8,47,62,888
20 Morocco 4,15,226 6,909 11,188 186 3,71,14,686
21 Saudi Arabia 3,60,848 6,112 10,291 174 3,50,66,037
22 India 1,00,31,659 1,45,513 7,236 105 1,38,63,45,438
23 Philippines 4,58,044 8,911 4,154 81 11,02,60,744
24 Indonesia 6,57,948 19,659 2,394 72 27,48,74,562
25 Egypt 1,24,891 7,069 1,210 68 10,32,29,530
26 Algeria 94,781 2,659 2,143 60 4,42,18,531
27 Nepal 2,53,184 1,777 8,618 60 2,93,80,034
28 Afghanistan 50,536 2,054 1,285 52 3,93,33,612
29 Bangladesh 4,99,560 7,242 3,019 44 16,54,56,135
30 Myanmar 1,15,187 2,424 2,110 44 5,45,80,709
31 Pakistan 4,57,288 9,330 2,052 42 22,28,80,521
32 Sudan 22,621 1,425 510 32 4,43,22,172
33 Kenya 94,151 1,633 1,733 30 5,43,19,052
34 Japan 1,93,031 2,828 1,528 22 12,62,93,676
35 Yemen 2,087 606 69 20 3,01,29,754
36 Uzbekistan 75,933 612 2,254 18 3,36,95,014
37 Ethiopia 1,19,494 1,846 1,028 16 11,62,77,274
38 S. Korea 49,665 674 968 13 5,12,89,954
39 Malaysia 91,969 433 2,825 13 3,25,59,326
40 Angola 16,626 386 499 12 3,33,35,173
41 Ghana 53,653 331 1,710 11 3,13,73,209
42 Nigeria 77,933 1,218 374 6 20,84,96,535
43 Uganda 30,702 230 662 5 4,64,03,248
44 Mozambique 17,477 147 552 5 3,16,58,205
45 DRC 15,397 369 170 4 9,08,11,037
46 Thailand 4,907 60 70 0.9 6,98,82,316
47 Vietnam 1,411 35 14 0.4 9,77,48,185
48 Tanzania 509 21 8 0.3 6,05,16,468
• Large countries (Population > 30 Mn) ranked by Deaths/Mn
• The worst impacted (red) are Europe, USA and Latin America. Iran is
an outlier in this group
• Intermediate (yellow) countries are the residual countries in Europe,
and the Middle East.
• Relatively better countries (light green) are predominantly in Asia.
India is actually the worst performing in this group.
• The least impacted (dark green) countries are in East Asia and Africa
• We have taken a sample of countries for further analysis:
• Red – UK, USA, Spain, Iran
• Yellow – South Africa, Russia, Iraq, Turkey
• Light Green – India, Indonesia, Nepal, Pakistan, Bangladesh

21. • USA and Iran have gone through 3 waves. Iran is now declining but what will happen in USA is uncertain
• Indonesia is the only country in this sample that has not yet gone through the first peak
• Iraq, India and Nepal have gone through the first peak and are declining
• Turkey, Pakistan and Bangladesh have gone through their first peak and are now rising though Deaths/Mn are at a
low level
Date Deaths/ Deaths/ Date Deaths/ Deaths/ Days Date Deaths/ Deaths/ Days Date Deaths/ Deaths/ Days Date Deaths/ Deaths/ Days
Day Mn Day Mn Day Mn Day Mn Day Mn
UK 21.04.20 1166 297 12.07.20 9 600 82 25.11.20 696 831 136 Uncertain
USA 21.04.20 2743 140 14.06.20 340 364 54 30.07.20 1853 470 46 21.09.20 379 617 53 16.12.20 3561 948 86 Uncertain
Spain 2.04.20 996 229 14.06.20 6 627 73 24.11.20 537 934 163 Declining
Iran 4.04.20 158 41 15.05.20 48 82 41 28.07.20 235 191 74 31.08.20 109 255 34 16.11.20 486 497 77 Declining
South Africa 22.07.20 572 100 13.09.20 13 259 53 18.12.20 274 407 96 Uncertain
Russia 29.05.20 232 30 6.09.20 61 122 100 11.12.20 613 314 96 Uncertain
Iraq 26.06.20 122 38 Declining
Turkey 19.04.20 127 24 13.06.20 14 57 55 Rising
India 15.09.20 1283 59 Declining
Indonesia Rising
Nepal 4.11.20 30 35 Declining
Pakistan 20.06.20 159 16 4.08.20 4 29 45 Rising
Bangladesh 30.06.20 64 11 7.11.20 13 37 130 Rising
First Peak First Trough Third PeakSecond Peak Second Trough

22. As of 19.12.20
Date Deaths/ Deaths/ Peak Cum Deaths/ Date Deaths/ Deaths/ Days Deaths/ Deaths/
Day Mn Intensity Mn Day Mn Day Mn
India 15.09.20 1283 0.93 M 59 Declining 351 105
Turkey 19.04.20 127 1.50 H 24 13.06.20 14 57 55 Rising 236 211
Pakistan 20.06.20 159 0.71 L 16 4.08.20 4 29 45 Rising 75 42
Bangladesh 30.06.20 64 0.39 VL 11 7.11.20 13 37 130 Rising 32 44
Iraq 26.06.20 122 3.00 VH 38 Declining 16 312
Saudi Arabia 5.06.20 58 1.65 H 18 Declining 11 174
First TroughFirst Peak
• Turkey after an initial period of behaviour like Asia is now behaving more like Europe. Iraq had a high intensity
first peak and has been declining since then
• Saudi Arabia is mid way between Europe and Asia
• India had a higher intensity first peak than Pakistan and Bangladesh. Both of the latter countries are currently
going through a low intensity second wave

23. Maharashtra – District Level Covid Impact
Covid Impact –
Very High
Covid Impact -
High
Covid Impact -
Medium
Covid Impact -
Low
Covid Impact –
Very Low
Deaths/Mn
>450
Deaths/Mn
250 - 450
Deaths/Mn
150 - 250
Deaths/Mn
75 - 150
Deaths/Mn
<75
Pandemic Start
(7 DMA >1)
March – 14 Jul 10 May – 13 Jul 9 May – 14 Jul 2 Jul – 6 Sep 25 Jun – 22 Sep
Starting Point Mumbai Pune Pune Pune/Nagpur Nagpur
Decline Not
Started
Nil Satara Osmanabad,
Ratnagiri
Akola,
Sindhudurg
Nil
Decline Starting
at Deaths/Mn
139 - 373 267 - 313 68 - 148 58 - 64 28 - 34
Decline Starting
From
26 Jun
(Mumbai) – 13
Sep (Nagpur)
27 Jul – 21 Sep 2 Sep – 20 Sep 18 Aug – 30 Sep 31 Aug – 25 Sep
Second Wave Pune, Mumbai,
Raigad, Thane
Aurangabad Nil Jalna Buldhana

24. India Second Wave
• Based on international comparisons, a second wave in India is possible but
unlikely
• Within India, badly impacted states like Maharashtra and Delhi have gone
through a second (third in Delhi) wave. Within Maharashtra, the worst
impacted districts exhibited the pattern, not the others
• However, the aggregated impact of taking all geographies in India suggests
that increases in some places tend to be cancelled out by declines in others
• So far the data suggests that India will continue on a slow decline for some
time

25. Covid Vaccine Update for India

26. India Scenario
Manufacturer Capacity/Annum
(Mn Doses)
Preliminary Results Expected
by
Approx Cost
Vaccines in Phase 3
Astra Zeneca
Covishield
SII 1000 Granted EUA Rs 1000 for 2 doses
with a substantial
discount for Govt
purchases
Novavax SII 500 Jan/Feb 2021
J&J Biological E 400 Jan/Feb 2021
Bharat Biotech -
Covaxin
Bharat
Biotech
150 Granted EUA with some riders
– seems to be a back up and
use will include informed
consent as for a clinical trial
Sputnik V Dr Reddy’s 100 Mar 2021
Vaccines in Phase 2
Cadila Cadila 100 Mid 2021

27. • Much of the infrastructure for
vaccination already exists.
• 4 primary stores will receive
the vaccine from the
manufacturers
• 37 state level stores with
temperature control and
monitoring facilities exist
• 29,000 cold chain points
already implemented
• No registration required for
health care workers
• Co Win App will be used for
registration of other
beneficiaries
• Govt planning to implement a
Unique Health Id for future

28. Directions
• The co-relative model presented on 24.05.20 has been reasonably successful in predicting the
date for first decline in deaths/day to start. Decline commenced on 15.09.20
• The decline has been faster than anticipated. After a plateau in November and early December a
declining trend is visible currently
• North India’s spike after Diwali has come under control. As of now all states are stable/declining
• In the next 30 days we may expect Deaths/Day to slowly decline further
• 71 cases of the new UK variant have been observed in India – no indications of local spread as of
now. Genome has been mapped in UK and India. Implications for vaccine effectiveness awaited.
• Vaccination logistics and process seem comprehensive and well thought through
• Vaccination should start within a week or ten days

29. Discussion

30. Thank You!
Please mail me at debubhatnagar@gmail.com
with any comments.
Disclaimer: These projections and analysis are not official and are the work of an
amateur. They should not be the basis of any decision making.