2. Outline
Multiple crises
Opportunity amidst crisis
Rethinking economic recovery: A global green new deal
The Green Economy Initiative: A family of initiatives
Making the economic case: The Green Economy Report
Engaging global policy processes
Fostering global consensus on green economy
Supporting regional initiatives on green economy
Country technical assistance and advisory services
4. Fuel and food crises - 950 million
people worldwide at risk of hunger
and malnutrition
Financial crisis - threatening jobs
worldwide & poverty reduction
gains
Multiple Crises
Climate crisis – exacerbating the
others
5. The Economic Crisis and Employment
200 million jobs lost between 2007 and 2009
7. Continued Environmental Neglect
Global economic
growth in past 50
years accompanied
by accelerated
environmental
decline
1981 – 2005: global
GDP more than
doubled, but 60% of
world’s ecosystems
degraded/exploited
unsustainably
9. Rethinking the Economic Recovery:
A global Green New Deal
From : Edward B. Barbier,
“A Global Green New Deal”,
UNEP, Feb 2009
10. Global Green New Deal Rationale
Fiscal stimulus agreed as the way forward, but
how sustainable is the recovery ?
“Green Investment” beats a “Shopping Spree”
“Win-Win-Win” solutions exist : Decent Jobs,
Lower Risks, Higher Returns
Globalization is a fact : success lies in globally
coordinated action ..
“A crisis is a terrible thing to waste” : Seeding the
“Green Economy”
11. Opportunity as Governments Jump Start
Economies: Green stimulus packages
Country Stimul
us
USbn
Stimulus
as % of
GDP/GNI
Green
Fund
Usbn
% of
Green
stimulus
Green
stimulus
as % of
GDP
Australia 26.7 2.49 2.5 9% 0.2
China 586.1 13.88 221.3 38% 5.2
Japan 485.9 10.03 12.4 3% 0.3
Korea, Rep 38.1 4.44 30.7 81% 3.6
France 33.7 1.12 7.1 21% 0.2
Germany 104.8 2.74 13.8 13% 0.4
UK 30.4 1.09 2.1 7% 0.1
US ARRA 787 5.27 94.1 12% 0.6
US EESA 185 1.29 18.2 10% 0.1
Canada 31.8 2.03 2.6 8% 0.2
source: HSCB 2009, CIA factbook
12. Investing in Renewable Energy
Global Green Stimuli Packages Spending in the Energy Sector
Building EE
15%
Grid
21%
Low Carbon Vehicles
4%
Rail
26%
Renewable Power
9%Non-Energy
25%
13. Global Green New Deal Components
Inernational Policy
Architecture
• International Trade
• International Aid
• Global Carbon Market
• Global Markets for Ecosystems Services
• Development and Transfer of Technology
• GGND International Coordination
Domestic Policy Initiatives
• Perverse Subsidies
• Incentives & Taxes
• Land Use and Urban Policy
• Integrated Management of Freshwater
• Environmental Legislation
• Monitoring and Accountability
Fiscal Stimulus
in 2009-2010
• Energy Efficient Buildings
• Sustainable Transport
• Sustainable Energy
• Agriculture and
Freshwater
14. • What is the potential for environmental
industries to become drivers of future
economic growth?
• What financial, policy and institutional
barriers currently inhibit a shift towards a
green economy?
• What national experiences currently
exist?
Green Economy: Key Questions
15. To achieve significant progress in
addressing global environmental priorities
by the end of 2010 by:
• making a strong & credible
macroeconomic case for massive green
investments worldwide
• offering workable solutions to remove
financial, policy, institutional, & market
constraints on making such investments
The Green Economy Initiative
(GEI)
16. Demonstrating that Greening
is a new engine for growth,
sizing sectoral opportunities,
addressing hurdles &
enabling conditions
Demonstrating the value of
ecosystems & biodiversity,
capturing these values, and
reversing the vicious cycle
of environmental losses and
persistent poverty
Sizing and
incentivizing growth in
green & decent jobs
Green Economy
Report
TEEB
Green Jobs
The Green Economy Initiative: A
family of initiatives…
Evaluating
Ecological
Infrastructure
Evaluating
Biodiversity
Business
GGN
D
investm
ent,
education
&
training,
m
etricsforgreen
em
ploym
entgrow
th
Decent jobs from Community-
based Conservation, PES/ IPES
implementation,
16
17. 07.09.13 UNEP ETB17
UNDP
UNEP
ILO
Demonstrating that Greening
is a new engine for growth,
sizing sectoral opportunities,
addressing hurdles &
enabling conditions
Demonstrating the value of
ecosystems & biodiversity,
capturing these values, and
reversing the vicious cycle
of environmental losses and
persistent poverty
Sizing and
incentivizing growth in
green & decent jobs
Green Economy
Report
TEEB Green Jobs
ITC
G8+5
Multilateral
Institutions
CountriesRegional
Forums
Business
& Civil Society
Groups
Universities
… under a Wide Global Network
UNSD
UNECE
UNCEB
UNDES
A
UNSCD
18. Green Economy Reports
1. A report on a Global Green New Deal
proposing key elements of a global
policy response to economic crisis
2. An in-depth review of the state and
prospect of key green sectors and
specific policy recommendations
19. Green Jobs
In September 2008, UNEP-
ILO launched a report
showing:
Investments to reduce
climate change and its
effects are generating new
jobs
Next phase: country
studies
20. Green Jobs
“Where capital flows today,
jobs follow tomorrow”
What are the key sectors at
risk ? What are the key
sectors of opportunity ? And
the net change in FTE’s for
each ?
How does ‘greening’ impact
employment ?
“Green Jobs Report”,
September 2008
21. Green Jobs
The Report found that:
Globally, > 2.3 million
workers employed in
renewables; by 2030, could
be 20 million jobs
Greening buildings in EU & US
would create 2 million jobs
In China, 10 million jobs in
the recycling sector
23. The Economics of Ecosystems and
Biodiversity
(TEEB)
To motivate actions to
significantly reduce
biodiversity loss by 2010
Results to feed into Green
Economy Reports
24. TEEB – Interim Report
Three Key Messages
Economic Size
& Welfare
Impact of
Losses is huge
Strong link with
Poverty & risk of
MDG’s failure
Discount rates
are ethical choices
25. Rethink todays
subsidies to meet
tomorrow’s
priorities
Reward unrecognized
benefits, penalize
Uncaptured costs
Share the benefits of
conservation
Measure what
we Manage !
TEEB – Interim Report
“From Economics to Policies”
25
26. TEEB II Deliverables
1. A global valuation study providing
conceptual background for guidance
documents;
2. A guidance report for international and
national policymakers;
3. A guidance report for regional and local
administrators;
4. A guidance report for business and industry;
5. A guidance report for consumers.
27. Making the Economic Case:
The Green Economy Report
The objective of the Green
Economy Report is to make and
communicate a strong and
convincing economic case for
greening economies and creating
decent green jobs by investing in a
new generation of assets (social,
natural, human, and financial).
28. 07.09.13 UNEP ETB28
A “green economy” is not …
‘Ecological Footprint’
already exceeds Earth’s
regenerative capacity…
our demands on the
planet have doubled over
the last 40 years…
Global GHG Emissions at
42 GtCO2e per annum are
5 times higher than the
Earth can absorb …
…One which undermines natural capital..….Or risks human survival ...
30. The UNEP Global Green New Deal
Following Roosevelt’s strategy in the 30s,
advocacy for a green revolution.
Initialized in 2008 by the UNEP, the GGND
was a key document of the 2009 G20 in
London.
« Jump-starting the transition to a green
economy”
International components : Urgent
reforms to international architecture.
31. The UNEP Global Green New Deal
National Components : Green priorities for
fiscal spending, and reforms to national
architecture
Optimizing “quick wins” and “sustainable
returns to investment” objectives in
stimulus packages
Addressing both Developed World and
Developing World circumstances
Avoiding past mistakes of capital mis-
allocation.
32. The Green Economy Report,
Overview
The GER is an in-depth sectoral analysis of the
economic and social potential impact of green
investments resulting from green stimulus
packages.
Targets: Decision makers, government officials,
business executives, researchers and
representatives of civil society organizations.
33. GER – Operational Framework
Open architecture, end-user targeted, dialogue-based, inclusive…
Policy Context:Policy Context:
Multiple crises
Climate Change
Poverty
Core policy principles underlying
a Green Economy
SustainableSustainable
citiescities
CleanClean
technologytechnology
and materialand material
efficiencyefficiency
BuildingsBuildings
TransportTransport RenewableRenewable
EnergyEnergy
WasteWaste EcosystemsEcosystems
andand
ecologicalecological
infrastructurinfrastructur
ee
WaterWater
ForestForest AgricultureAgriculture EnablingEnabling
ConditionsConditions
(domestic(domestic
and int’l)and int’l)
PolicyPolicy
recom-recom-
mendationsmendations
ImpactImpact
assessmentassessment
Global
Green
New
Deal
Report
Technical Advisory & Coordination Team (TACT)
Project Implementation & Communications Team (PICT)
Note : Each Chapter has a “Writing Team” composed of the chapter authors, contributors and
Other experts and stakeholders from government, international institutions, business and civil society
UNEP Green Economy Team
34. Investing in Green Sectors
Renewable energy
Clean tech : materials & energy
efficiency
Low carbon cities , buildings & transport
Waste management & mitigation
Ecological infrastructure
Biodiversity-based businesses
35. Sustainable Cities
Cities are polluted,
crowded and
complex to
manage.
Delivering the
smart city: The
GER will a
guidance plan for
mayors to improve
sustainability and
growth in cities.
37. Green Buildings
Energy efficient buildings:
Investments in improved
energy efficient buildings = 2-
3.5m jobs in Europe & USA.
In Australia a proposed US$ 3b
green housing over 4 years is
expected to reduce green
house gas emissions by
3.8mtons/year = 160,000 jobs
In the US it is estimated that
US$ 100b to improve energy
efficiency of building & cities
over 4 years will generate 2m
new jobs.
38. Sustainable Transport
● Shifting 25% of all air
travel in 2050 under
750 km to high speed
rail travel would
result in savings of
around .5 GT of
CO2/year (IEA, ‘08)
● Shifting 25% of all
road freight over 500
km to rail, .4 Gt of
CO2/year could be
saved (IEA, ‘08).
39. Renewable Energy
About 2.3 million jobs in
renewable energy sector
in comparison to 2 m
employed in oil & gas
refining industry in ’99.
Projected investments of
US$ 630b in renewable
energy sector by 2030
would translate into at
least 20 m jobs.
40. Renewable energy: case study
China: RE sector generates
output worth US $ 17 bill &
employs 1 mill.
Nigeria: a biofuels industry
based on casava & sugar can
provide 200,000 jobs
India: 900,00 jobs could be
created in the biomass
gasification by 2025
Bangladesh: At least 20,000
jobs have been created with
the uptake of 3 renewable
energy technologies (PV
solar home systems biogas
facilities, & improved
cooking stoves)
41. Water
●Market for water supply,
sanitation,& water
efficiency estimated at
US$ 253 bn & is
expected to grow to
US$ 658 bn by 2020.
● Estimated Investment
of USD 15 bn per
annum.
● This could generate
USD 38 billion (with 15
bn in sub-Saharan
Africa).
42. Sustainable Agriculture
Organic agriculture sustains
health of soils, ecosystems &
people
Provides more than 30%
more jobs/ha than non-
organic
China has increased its
allocation of land for organic
prod from 300,000 ha in ‘05
to 3.5 mill ha in ’06
In Ethiopia alone, 6 bn is
being invested in land
management during a period
of 15 years.
43. Forests
Many communities directly
depend for their livelihoods
on non timber forest products.
Sustainable forest
management can:
create massive employment,
provide for livelihoods,
make a significant contribution
to the fight against climate
change,
combat desertification and
land degradation.
44. Engaging Global Policy Processes
Green economy presence at strategic policy junctures:
Sessions of the Commission on Sustainable Development
UN Conference on the World Financial and Economic and its
Impact on Development in New York (June 2009)
G8 Summit 2009 in Italy (July 2009)
ECOSOC Substantive Session in Geneva (July 2009)
World Climate Conference 3 in Geneva (August-September 2009)
Global Renewable Energy Forum in Mexico (October 2009)
UNEP Finance Initiative 2009 Global Roundtable in Cape Town
(October 2009)
UNFCCC COP 15 and Kyoto Protocol MOP 5in Copenhagen
(December 2009)
International Association for Impact Assessment 2010 meeting
in Geneva (April 2010) among other targeted events. Ect…
45. Fostering a Global Consensus on
Green Economy
Engaging governments on an global
policy document on Green Economy,
modelled on the “IPCC Synthesis
Report”
Objective of adoption of the policy
document at the UNEP Governing
Council/Global Ministerial Environment
Forum in 2011
46. Supporting Regional Initiatives on
Green Economy
Regional initiative for “East Asia Low
Carbon Green Growth”
Regional initiative on Green Economy in
West Asia, in collaboration with UNEP
ROWA
Regional Imitative on Green Economy in
Africa, in collaboration with UNEP ROWA
47. Country Technical Assistance and
Advisory Services
Korea: UNEP is organizing an
independent review of “Korea Green
Growth National Vision”.
China: UNEP has received a proposal
from the Government to support policy
research that would feed into China’s
national five-year plan.
Uruguay: The Government has
requested UNEP support in undertaking
a green economy initiative.
48. Two “Green Economy” leaders ….
Mexico
“Green Fund”
combined gov’t/biz vision
and implementation
cogeneration
will announce goals for
2012. Going for
stats and research-backed
policy change…
they have own ‘Stern
Review’ (3x cheaper now
vs later)…
“Green Agenda” as
growth driver…
Korea
President’s “Green
Growth National Vision”
of August ‘08
Jan’09 “Green New Deal”
Significant “Green”
components of Fiscal
Stimulus Package..
…..700,000 of 1 mio new
jobs
…..$ 28 billion / $ 36
billion total
Cleaning 4 main rivers,
Reforestation,
Renewables, Buildings…
07.09.13 UNEP ETB48
50. UNEP Green Economy Website
http://www.unep.org/greeneconomy/
More Information
Hinweis der Redaktion
The financial crisis has brought down banking and insurance giants, contaminating the sector and affecting businesses and employment all over the world.
GREEN INVESTMENT beats a SPENDING SPREE : CAP (Centre for American Progress) example from their “Green Recovery” publication, October 2008 shpws that $ 100 billion on renewables could generate 2 million jobs, vs 1.7 million by $ 100 bio consumer spending, vs 0.55 million jobs from $ 100 bio invested in Oil and Gas….basically 3 reasons, (a) labour intensity (b) domestic content – being 9% vs 22% through ‘spending spree’ and (c ) higher pay …lower than Oil & Gas, but 14% higher than retail and mfg jobs WIN-WIN-WIN solutions …… WRI / PIIE study shows how $ 1 billion invested in Renewables creates 30,000 jobs, saves $ 450 million (consumption+costs) and reduces 0.6 Megatonnes CO2….
Source: ilo unep
Green Deal report - no later than mid 2009. In-depth GEI review - no later than end of 2009. Country studies, some of which will be implemented in collaboration with the UNEP-UNDP Poverty-Environmental Initiative, and an initial group of studies to be done no later than end of 2010, depending on funding.
Green Jobs: Towards Decent work in a Sustainable, Low-Carbon World
Elasticity : what is the functional relationship of greening & employment ? Indirect & Induced Jobs : can we estimate these, and their effect on savings & growth ? Renewables : Will these jobs scale from 2.3 million today to 20 million by 2030 ? If renewables provide such large employment (compared to 2.2 million in Oil & Gas) should this not be the star ‘jobs’ opportunity today ? Farming : What is happening, & will happen, to the 1.3 billion at work ? Is turning farming organic a net increase or decrease in jobs ? Waste Management : of an estimated 12 million employees globally, 10 million are in China ? What prevents opportunity elsewhere ?
The Next phase of the Green Jobs work stream: UNEP and ILO together with partners, will conduct a number of country studies over the next two years to pin down green job opportunities and offer solutions to the challenge of jobs negatively affected in the transition from a “brown” to a “green” economy. This stream of work will focus on the same range of environmental sectors as those identified for GEI.
The goal would be to develop the blank boxes. Find ways to develop sust agr in the US or in China, or renewable energy in Nigeria. This will be the extra bonus.
In March 2007, the Environmental Ministers of the G8 plus Brazil, China, India, Mexico, and South Africa endorsed the preparation of a study to look at the economic value of biodiversity and ecosystem services, as well as the long-term economic consequences of the continuing loss of biodiversity. The German Federal Ministry for the Environment and the European Commission, with the support of an Advisory Board and under the leadership of Pavan Sukhdev, initiated work on this global study. The preliminary findings from Phase I were launched at CBD COP-9 in Germany in May 2008.
UNEP has launched the Green Economy Programme in July 2008 The objective is to conduct thorough studies that provide policy makers from around the world, especially in developing countries, with the policy guidance, economic and social indicators for a wide range of green sectors, and the technical assistance that they need to tackle a number of economic pitfalls and initiate their own green economy plans. If we continue on the current path, consequences on our environment and economy will be irrevocable. (see next slide)
Green Economy Initiative Report: This is the most substantial piece of work of the GEI programme and aims at providing a comprehensive analysis of the socio-economic implications (e.g. employment and investment) of promoting given green sectors at the large scale both globally and across major economies (countries and regions). This report should be released in 2010, but the first results per sector will be made available between June and November 2009 before copenhagen. The green sectors that were selected in a preliminary phase are (temporary list, under development): Energy Efficiency Sustainable Energy Public Transport Waste Management and Recylcing Sustainable Agriculture Water conservation Biodiversity Cross cutting issues that will be looked at include: Legislation/standard setting Fiscal policy reforms e.g. reform of subsidies and tax incentives Financing for green investments Trade policies Technology transfer, cooperation, and capacity building Information, monitoring, and accountability Governance, role of the state, political economy
Source for the Two Graphs on the right hand side : UNFPA , and on the left Jo Beall, 2007. Additionally we can address the issue of poor people concentration in the south, which is likely to become more and more pronouced.
First picture: Favela Paraisópolis, São Paulo, Brazil Second Picture: San Roque, Cebu City, Philippines
Note : Amo,g the 20m jobs: - 2.1 mill. In wind energy - 6.3 mill. in solar photovoltaic - 12 mill in biofuels related agriculture & industry.
Organic market has grown from US$ 15b in ’99 to US$46 bill in ’07 (IFOAM ’09)
A number of leading businesses are already moving ahead rapidly to grab opportunity As part of General Electric’s eco-magination campaign, the engineers behind this project dreamt up a way to transform one of the oldest and most powerful forms of transportation in the planet into an energy efficient marvel. Introducing, the Hybrid Locomotive . Take a 4,400 horsepower locomotive, add lead-free rechargeable batteries (essentially a 1,000 pound molten-salt cell), and a fuel-efficient high horsepower diesel locomotive, and you end up with quite a package. Every time the engine brakes, the dynamic energy is transferred into the batteries, thus becoming an extra 2,000 horsepower that is available for use by the operator when needed. The outcome of this? A fuel consumption reduction of about 15% and an emissions cut of a whopping 50% compared to locomotives operating today. Best part? The first one goes into operation in 2010….
Interest from other UN organisations inludes: UNIDO’s Green Industry Initiative, UNESCAP’s Green Growth Initiative, and ILO’s Green Jobs Initiative (with UNEP). UNCTAD – Green Trade. Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon is already championing the Green Economy at international conferences. China is advancing fast on the Green Economy track. It has allocated over US$142 billion over the next three years to spend on renewable energy, clean technology, and pollution control.