2. Outlines of the presentation
• Definition of basic demographic terms
• Demographic concepts
• Demographic transition theory
• Sources of demographic data
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3. • a group of one or more parents and their
children living together as a unit:
• A group of two or more persons related by
birth, marriage, or adoption and residing
together in a household.
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4. • The term family has been viewed in a number
of ways
• Biologist
• Psychologist
• Economist
• Sociologist view
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5. Chapter objectives
• At the end of this chapter the learners will be able
to:
• Define basic demographic terms
• Describe the concept of demography and
population studies
• Describe demographic transition theory
• Identify and Explain sources of demographic data
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6. Basic demographic terms
• Fertility = Production of a live birth (natality)
• Infertility = Inability to produce a live birth
• Parity = Number of children born alive to a woman
• Gravidity = Number of pregnancies a woman has had
whether or not they produce a live birth
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7. Cont….
• Sterility is the inability to create offspring
(children) as a result of a procedure—such as
tubal ligation,hysterectomy, or vasectomy
• fecund ability is the probability of being pregnant
in a single menstrual cycle.
• fecundity is the probability of achieving a live
birth within a single cycle
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8. Concepts of demography
Is a Social Science discipline concerned with the study of
human populations
Demography is concerned with the study of;
- The size,
- The composition
- The distribution of population
- Their patterns of change over time (population
dynamics) through births, deaths and migration
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9. Demography
• Demography is an interdisciplinary subject
- It has close relations with Sociology, Biology, Statistics,
economics, Geography, Epidemiology and other disciplines
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Demography
Formal
Demography
Population Studies
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10. Definition cont’d
Population
Statisticians use the term “population” to denote a collection of
things
Demographer, define population is collection of persons alive at
demarcated by natural, cultural, or political boundaries with in a
specified point in time
Population Studies
• Focuses on the relations between demographic and non-
demographic variables
• Is interested in the effect of non-demographic variable on a
demographic variable or vice versa
• But also the study of their relationships to economic, social,
cultural, and biological processes
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11. Reasons for study demography
With the majority of developing countries facing
population explosion, the study of population and its
problems has become very important in every sphere
of an economy
• For the Economy
• For Society
• For Economic Planning
• For Administrators
• For Political System
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12. Reasons for study demography
The health and healthcare needs of a population
cannot be measured or met without knowledge of
population size and characteristics
Knowledge of population size, structure, distribution is
fundamental for development plans whose target is to
satisfy the future needs of population in the areas of
Health
Education
Employment
Housing, etc.
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13. cont’d
• Measures of population health are important
because of the various types of potential applications
1. Comparing the health of one population with the
health of another population
2. Comparing the health of the same population at
different points in time
3. Identifying and quantifying health inequalities within
Populations
4. Providing appropriate and balanced attention to the
effects of nonfatal health conditions on overall
population health
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14. Population change
• Population change is changes in population growth
rates, age structures and distributions of people are
closely linked to national and global developmental
challenges and their solutions
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15. Population Changes
• The total population of an area depends upon
changes in the natural increase and migration
• The natural increase (or decrease) is the
difference between the birth rate and the
death rate
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16. Population Changes cont’d
The three basic components of population change:
• Births
• Deaths
• Migration
Outmigration
In migration
• Excess of births over deaths results in natural increase
• Excess of deaths over births results in natural decrease
• The difference between inmigration and outmigration
is net migration
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17. Population Changes cont’d
• Natural Increase –
It is the rate at which population increases due to
the excess of birth over death
Most direct indication of how rapidly a population
actually grew as the result of vital processes
This rate does not include the effect of migration
RNI = CBR – CDR
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19. Population Changes cont’d
Migration change (net migration)
• It is the difference between immigration and
emigration
• Or in migration & out migration for internal
migration
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21. Demographic Transition
• The demographic transition refers to the change
that populations undergo from high rates of
births and deaths to low rates of births and
deaths
• High levels of births and deaths kept most
populations from growing rapidly
throughout most of time
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22. The Demographic Transition
• The birth rate is the number of live births in a year
for every 1000 people in the total population
• The death rate is the number of people in every 1000
who die in a year
• If the birth rate is higher then the total population
will increase. If the death rate is higher then the
total population will decrease
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23. Demographic Transition Theory
• Demographic transition theory is the most prominent
explanation for population growth
• The DTT describes a sequence of changes in the
relationship between birth rates and death rates
• The model was produced using changes in the natural
increase in several industrialised countries in western
Europe and North America
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24. Demographic Transition Theory
• Describes the historical experience of population
growth in the west
• Relates the type of population growth to the level
of socio-economic development of a society
• States that birth rates and death rates tend to
decline with economic & technological progress
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25. The Demographic Transition
• The demographic dividend refers to the accelerated
economic growth that begins with changes in the age
structure of a country’s population as it shifts from high
to low birth and death rates during the demographic
transition
• This accelerated economic growth results from a fast
decline in a country’s mortality and fertility and the
subsequent changes in the age structure of the
population
• To benefit from a demographic dividend, however,
countries must first achieve a demographic transition
that move from high to low birth and death rates
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26. Demographic Transition Theory
• How birth& death rate (BR& DR) interact to create
growth
• How ordered sequence of changes in the BR & DR
generate growth
• Implies also how migration affects growth
• It suggests that the population growth rates for all
countries can be divided into four stages
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27. Demographic Transition Theory
The model is based on the following three premises proposed by
F.W. Notestien;
1. The decrease in mortality were the direct result of socio-
economic change
2. Fertility was much less responsive to socio-economic changes
with decrease in fertility occurring some time after decreases in
death rates
3. Socio-economic change takes the form of an evolution from a
traditional, non-industrial, usually agrarian society to a modern,
industrial, urban society
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28. Class activity
• In group of five discuses on stage of DT focusing
characteristics and reasons for 10 minutes
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30. Stages of DT
The four stages of the demographic transition:
Stage I: The primitive regime or high fluctuating.
Characteristics
• Birth Rate and Death rate are both high
• Death rates fluctuated up & down
• Population growth is slow and fluctuating
• Characterizes pre-industrial & traditional societies
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31. Stages of DT
Reasons for High BR
• Lack of family planning
• High Infant Mortality Rate
• Need for workers in agriculture
• Religious Beliefs
• Children as economic assets
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32. Stages of DT
Death Rate is high because of:
• High levels of disease
• Famine
• Lack of clean water and sanitation
• Lack of health care
• War
• Lack of education, etc..,
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33. Stages of DTT continued
Stage II: Early Expanding Regime
Characteristics
• Birth Rate remains high
• Death Rate falling& life expectancy improves
• Population begins to rise steadily
Death Rate falls as a result of:
- Improved Hygiene & sanitation
- Improved food production and storage
- Improved health care
- Improved transport for food
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34. Stages of DTT continued
Stage III: Late Expanding Regime
Characteristics
• Birth Rate starts to fall
• Death Rate continues to fall
• Population rising
Reasons of decline in Birth rate:
• Family planning available
• Lower Infant Mortality Rate
• Increased mechanization reduces need for workers
• Increased standard of living
• Changing status of women
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35. Stages of DTT continued
Stage IV: Low Fluctuating or Mature Regime
Characteristics
• Birth Rate and Death Rate balance each other
• Population stops growing
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Demography—The study of a population in its static and dynamic aspects
It is the scientific study of human populations, primarily with respect to their size, their structure and their development
(2) For Society:
Population studies have much importance for the society. When population is increasing rapidly, the society is faced with innumerable problems. Shortages of basic services like water, electricity, transport and communications, public health, education, etc. arise
Understanding population dynamics—how populations change in response to the interplay between fertility, mortality, and migration
Understanding population dynamics is a prerequisite for making the projection about future population size and structure
There are two mechanisms by which they bring about population change
Natural Increase (change)
Migratory change (net migration)
is the surplus of births over deaths in a population over a given period of time
Demographic thinking in transition terms essentially began as early as 1929. It started as a description of demographic changes using a classification of populations into three groups according to different combinations of mortality and fertility levels resulting in three groups of countries with different population growth rates
The two key elements of the demographic transition are the mortality transition and the fertility transition from long-term quasi-equilibrium high levels to long-term quasi-equilibrium low levels
As a country’s working age population grows in relation to the number of young dependents, a country has a window of opportunity for stronger economic growth.
2 The implication was that for a period of time birth rates would exceed death rates resulting in increases in population
Finland Is a good example of a country that has passed through the four stages of the demographic transition.
(Finland in 1785-1790) ,Birth rate: 38 per 1,000,Death rate: 32 per 1,000,Rate of natural increase: 0.6 percent