Climate Information, Tools, and Services for Enhancing Resilience

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Invited plenary presentation for the Global Frontiers Track of The White House Frontiers Conference, October 13, 2016 on the campuses of the University of Pittsburgh and Carnegie Mellon University. This national conference, hosted by President Barack Obama, brought together thought leaders to address the growth and challenges in science, technology and innovation. Discussions focused on improving lives by investing in those areas.

Science

Global FrontiersClimate Information, Tools, and Services for Enhancing Resilience
Dawn J. Wright, Ph.D., Chief Scientist, Environmental Systems Research Institute

Sam Pitroda, Esri Intl User Conference Keynote 2013
A Fourth Pillar of Democracy?

…deal with changes, threats
Re•sil•ience [n.]
…absorb disturbance, stress, catastrophe
…recover quickly to a prior desired state
5 ideas

Apps that work On any device
(1) Empower Everyone with Apps
On any device, anywhere, anytime!

Yodaquotes.net
“Fear is the path to the
dark side. Fear leads to
anger. Anger leads to hate.
Hate leads to suffering.”
(2) Ease Leads to Exposure. Exposure Leads to Adoption.

(2) Ease Leads to Exposure. Exposure Leads to Adoption.
80,000 Landsat 8 scenes – esriurl.com/landsat – esriurlcom/landsat-story

Inspired by Mark Gahegan, U. of Auckland, RDA 5th Plenary
(3) Making Data & Code “Available” is NOT ENOUGH
We need to be more open about what we do WITH them!

coast.noaa.gov/digitalcoast
esriurl.com/green

(4) To Make it Reproducible, Make it Virtual.
Digital Object Identifiers, “Containers,” and more …

“Stories are data with a soul… persuasive
and memorable.”
– Nancy Baron, Director of Science Outreach, COMPASS Science Communication, Inc.

esriurl.com/reclamation
esriurl.com/creat
www.mappingglobalchange.org

Toward a Digital Resilience
Dawn J. Wright, dwright@esri.com
Twitter: @deepseadawn
esriurl.com/frontiers

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Federation of Earth Science Information Partners (ESIP) ESIP 2019 Summer Meeting - Day 2 Plenary – Tacoma, WA, July 17, 2019 In thinking about my remarks this morning, it occurred to me that there is very little that I could say to an outstanding community such as yours that you haven’t already heard. I do know, however, that one of the hallmarks of your community is your wonderful ethic of sharing, of giving, and your deep understanding that the more you GIVE in this community, the more you RECEIVE, and all toward better science for everyone, and better actions to literally save our planet. Toward this end, I want to share some remarks under a fun Star Wars theme, which I hope you’ll enjoy. These thoughts are about getting people to actually USE the resources that we’ve worked so very hard to build, and thus is in keeping with your conference theme: “Data to Action: Increasing the Use and Value of Earth Science Data and Information.” Slide design based on the Powerpoint slide template of Joshua D. Clarke, foxgguy2001.deviantart.com, Annville, KY

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Introduction to a panel session at the 2016 American Association of Geographers Annual Meeting in San Francisco. The panel was part of the AAG Symposium on Human Dynamics Research and discussed an apparent disconnect in academia where skills in research computing and programming are still not properly rewarded. In geography as in other disciplines, our ability to collect, process, visualize, and interpret datasets of unprecedented size and detail is helping to push the boundaries of our knowledge. This stands to affect just about every aspect of geography. Other disciplines are now discussing how best to promote a (new) culture where achievements in computational or “data science” are rewarded. This includes the emerging fields of computational social science and digital humanities. But where does geography fall within this “landscape?” Should we not seek to train and reward a new breed of geographer, broadly skilled in computing and coding, as well as in the careful management and analysis of very large datasets? What of the reward structure for the geography faculty member or postdoc who brings these skills to the classroom, while also releasing his/her own scientific code, workflows and datasets? In many geography departments these activities do not fall within the traditional modes of writing, publishing, or even grantsmanship. Hence they may not translate to academic career advancement. By not properly rewarding these activities, are we unwittingly driving a host of promising researchers away from the academic community? Full notes on the session at http://dusk.geo.orst.edu/aag16-darkside.html

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Credit to Yolanda Gil. In this talk I provide an overview of the current state of the art for software description in geosciences, along with our approach to facilitate this task in OntoSoft, a distributed semantic registry for scientific software. Three key aspects of OntoSoft are: a software metadata ontology designed for scientists, a distributed approach to software registries that targets communities of interest, and metadata crowdsourcing through access control. Software metadata is organized using the OntoSoft ontology, designed to support scientists to share, document, and reuse software, and organized along six dimensions: identify software, understand and assess software, execute software, get support for the software, do research with the software, and update the software.

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2020 UN World Data Forum Ocean Data Panel -- Data on the world’s oceans is vital to protect the environment, track and manage changes to the marine ecosystem, ensure access to coastal resources, and sustainably grow the “Blue Economy.” Climate scientists have noted that ocean data is as important as atmospheric and satellite data in understanding, predicting, and mitigating climate change. But despite its importance, ocean data has not yet been collected, shared, analyzed, and applied in all the ways that can achieve its full benefit. Many converging factors provide the opportunity to make a quantum leap in the use of this global data resource. UN SDG Goal 14 highlighted the need to improve the health of the oceans and to collect data to track progress. In the United States, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private-sector partners are making NOAA’s vast ocean data resources available and computable in the cloud. Simultaneously, established industries, emerging start-ups, academic and research institutions, and other non-government entities are collecting more data than ever about the ocean through active and autonomous measurements. This session will be a “participatory panel” that presents case studies of ocean data’s application, describes current data sources and collaborations, and invites participants to help envision new collaborative models for improving ocean data collection, sharing, and analysis. The panelists, representing diverse organizations, will give lightning talks to describe existing data resources and examples of ocean data’s application, including the use of AI and machine learning for data management and for managing ocean resources. They will also describe collaborative programs that bring diverse stakeholders together to support the use of ocean data, such as NOAA’s Big Data Project and the Global Ocean Observing System.

Data for the Blue Future: New Collaborations for Progress

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Part of an American Geophysical Union (AGU) Sharing Science webinar on May 8, 2019, with yours truly and Scripps doctoral student Tashiana Osborne sharing our science communication, science policy and social media outreach tips in advance of World Oceans Day. The webinar is also on at http://ow.ly/4KVH50u5gUI. AGU is one of the world's largest scientific societies with a membership of 60,000+. The AGU Sharing Science Program regularly runs webinars pertaining to science communication such as scicomm via storytelling, social media, multimedia, etc. Additionally, this year is AGU’s 100 year anniversary. As part of their centennial celebration, AGU is highlighting some national and international science days, among them World Oceans Day. In advance of World Oceans Day, AGU asked Dawn and Tashiana to describe to our scientific peers how we share our science as oceanographers, women in science, and effective science communicators.

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A plenary talk within the Harold Roberts Endowed Symposium at Colorado College on the theme "Beyond Climate Change: The Earth in the Anthropocene." The symposium (in May 2019) featured commentary on the lithosphere, biosphere, cryosphere, and Dawn's treatment of the hydrosphere (including #SDGs), all with an eye toward developing a public (and student) understanding of the breadth of environmental issues facing humanity.

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Invited paper U22A-02, Giants of Tectonophysics Session, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting. In honor of AGU's centennial, this session profiles breakthrough discoveries by leading contributors to the study of plate tectonics, geodynamics, earthquakes and faulting, and rock mechanics over the past century. Biographers and colleagues of these leading lights presented the stories of these giants to give us an understanding about how they worked, how they acquired their unique insight, what conflicts they faced in presenting their ideas, and what it was like to collaborate with or debate them. By the latter half of the 20th century the technologies behind SONAR, marine gravity, and marine magnetics had advanced to the point that the complexities of the ocean floor and beneath could be unraveled in unprecedented detail. Hence, scientists would finally be able to provide conclusive evidence for plate tectonics by way of plausible, proven physical mechanisms. But it took a young woman with an unusual background in geology, mathematics, and art to use that info to posit one of the most fundamental proofs of continental drift: a rift valley caused by the faulting of seafloor spreading. She did this while a researcher at Columbia University, in the lab of the iconic Maurice “Doc” Ewing, founder of the Lamont Geological Observatory. Along with geologist Bruce Heezen, she began the first systematic, comprehensive attempt to map the entire ocean floor. Heezen collected the data at sea, while Tharp developed a truly unique process for translating millions of these ocean-sounding records into a single drawing. During this process, she discovered the rift valley of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, which Heezen at first discounted, holding incorrectly to his expanding Earth theory. Tharp's name was absent from the 1956 scientific paper that released this discovery to the world, and she was not given proper recognition for this and many other accomplishments until decades later. In 1968, she finally had the opportunity to go to sea, and performed the first ever shipboard processing and plotting of bathymetric data. During this time, Tharp and Heezen also formed a successful partnership with Austrian landscape painter Heinrich Berann to produce several panoramas of the ocean floor, leading to some of the most widely recognized and beloved images in all of modern Earth science. Indeed, as her first, long-time employer, Doc Ewing, invented the field of marine geophysics, Tharp invented the field of marine cartography. Her story in words, data, and maps is a story that must continue be told for the future of science as well as the past. It is a remarkable testament to persistence, conviction, and courageous innovation.

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Integrated GIS/Machine-Learning Workflows for Modeling Spatiotemporal Variations in Potential Seagrass Habitats within a Changing Climate, European Geosciences Union General Assembly Paper ESSI4.3 – EGU2018-10081, Vienna, Austria, April 2018. Coastal marine plant habitats are impacted by changes in ocean conditions and the resulting changes in plant populations can produce positive climate feedbacks which exasperate warming. (Waycott et al., 2009). One such example is seagrasses, marine plants that can sequester vast amounts of carbon. When compared to tropical terrestrial forests, seagrasses can store up to 100 times more CO2 at a rate that is 12 times faster (Mcleod et al., 2011). Understanding the future of an important biologic carbon sink such as seagrass can shed some light into future carbon balance. Modeling the relationships between seagrass occurrence and ocean conditions, current and future, can aid in quantifying the impacts on future carbon balance. In this work, we use an integrated GIS and machine learning approach to build a data-driven model of seagrass presence-absence in a changing climate. We quantify the relationships between observed seagrass occurrence and ocean conditions. This relationship allows us to delineate patterns in current ocean conditions that promote favorable seagrass habitats.We pose this relationship as a binary classification problem and utilize Random Forest to establish a relationship for seagrass occurrence. This relationship is projected into the future under changing ocean conditions. We use deep-learning methods, recurrent neural networks, to forecast ocean conditions as the oceans get warmer and use these conditions in conjunction with the Random Forest model to predict the abundance of future seagrass habitats. We integrate multiple data sources including fine-scale seagrass data from MarineCadastre.gov and the recently available, globally extensive publicly available Ecological Marine Units (EMU) dataset. In addition, we use global ocean models from NOAA to calibrate our ocean forecasts. Our analysis includes a sensitivity study which investigates the vulnerability of seagrass to changes in specific ocean variables. We use the proposed model to provide an upper bound of the amount of carbon that can be stored in seagrasses as ocean conditions change. Finally, we use a Getis-Ord Gi* statistic within a space-time window to quantify the temporal changes in potential seagrass habitats.

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Department of Geography and Geoinformation Science Seminar, George Mason University, Falls Church, VA, September 2015. Increasingly, GIS is part of the collaboration between computer scientists, information scientists, and domain scientists to solve complex scientific questions. Successfully addressing scientific problems, such as informing regional decision- and policy-making for coastal zone management and marine spatial planning, requires integrative and innovative approaches to analyzing, modeling, and developing extensive and diverse data sets. The current chaotic distribution of available data sets, lack of documentation about them, and lack of easy-to-use access tools and computer modeling and analysis codes are still major obstacles for scientists and educators alike. Contributing solutions to these problems is part of an emerging science agenda at Esri for a range of environmental, conservation, climate and ocean sciences that will be discussed. The talk will highlight some recent projects in progress, including a new global map of ecological land units, new tools to support multidimensional scientific data, continued work on an ocean basemap, and more.

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Invited Evening Public Lecture, Redlands Forum, Redlands, CA. The Redlands Forum (formerly Town and Gown) is a free cultural series that welcomes new speakers every month. The event, sponsored by Esri and the University of Redlands Town & Gown, offers educational and cultural programs on a variety of topics for free or at nominal cost. Presenters include government and business leaders, environmentalists, filmmakers, and performers. It is one of the more popular things to do in Redlands. This Redlands Forum was introduced by Esri President Jack Dangermond and delivered to a capacity audience in May 2015.

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Presented as a 2015 Ecosystem Based Management Tools Webinar and also as a paper at the 2015 Coastal GeoTools Conference, North Charleston, SC. The story map is a relatively new medium for sharing not only data, photos, videos, sounds, and maps, but for telling a specific and compelling story by way of that content. Story map apps provide the user with sophisticated cartographic functionality that does not require advanced training in cartography or GIS. Story maps are essentially web map applications built from web maps, which in turn are built from web-accessible data (including OGC WMS, WFS). Depending on the chosen complexity of a story map, it can be built in anywhere from a few minutes to a few days. With the beauty and utility of underlays such as the Esri Ocean Basemap, as well as a small tsunami of ocean content percolating up through a host of open data sites, there are powerful stories being told about coastal zone management, conservation, exploration and other forms of scientific field work. These stories are informing, educating, entertaining, and inspiring decision-makers on a wide variety of coastal issues. This presentation will take the audience on a small tour of a growing catalog of coastal and ocean story maps, many of which are accessible via MarineCadastre.gov and NOAA’s Digital Coast. It will also highlight the various resources available for building and deploying story maps, and discuss the utility of this medium for presenting, not just photos and videos, but more analytical results. Learn more about Story Maps at http://storymaps.esri.com. This webinar was presented by Dawn Wright, Chief Scientist at Esri, along with Jenny Lentz, Education Specialist at the Aquarium of the Pacific. Slides here are Dawn Wright portion only.

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Climate Information, Tools, and Services for Enhancing Resilience

1. Global FrontiersClimate Information, Tools, and Services for Enhancing Resilience Dawn J. Wright, Ph.D., Chief Scientist, Environmental Systems Research Institute

2. Sam Pitroda, Esri Intl User Conference Keynote 2013 A Fourth Pillar of Democracy?

3. ArcGIS Online

4. ArcGIS Pro

5. Esri CityEngine

6. …deal with changes, threats Re•sil•ience [n.] …absorb disturbance, stress, catastrophe …recover quickly to a prior desired state 5 ideas

7. Apps that work On any device (1) Empower Everyone with Apps On any device, anywhere, anytime!

8. resilience.maps.arcgis.com

9. Yodaquotes.net “Fear is the path to the dark side. Fear leads to anger. Anger leads to hate. Hate leads to suffering.” (2) Ease Leads to Exposure. Exposure Leads to Adoption.

10. (2) Ease Leads to Exposure. Exposure Leads to Adoption. 80,000 Landsat 8 scenes – esriurl.com/landsat – esriurlcom/landsat-story

11. Inspired by Mark Gahegan, U. of Auckland, RDA 5th Plenary (3) Making Data & Code “Available” is NOT ENOUGH We need to be more open about what we do WITH them!

12. coast.noaa.gov/digitalcoast esriurl.com/green

13. (4) To Make it Reproducible, Make it Virtual. Digital Object Identifiers, “Containers,” and more …

14. (5) “Once upon a time…”

15. “Stories are data with a soul… persuasive and memorable.” – Nancy Baron, Director of Science Outreach, COMPASS Science Communication, Inc.

16. esriurl.com/reclamation esriurl.com/creat www.mappingglobalchange.org

17. Toward a Digital Resilience Dawn J. Wright, dwright@esri.com Twitter: @deepseadawn esriurl.com/frontiers

Editor's Notes

It’s a pleasure and honor kick off this session on Climate Information, Tools, and Services for Enhancing Resilience The White House Frontiers Conference, http://frontiersconference.org October 13, 2016 On the campuses of the University of Pittsburgh and Carnegie Mellon University
I want to start off with a “story of the fourth” as many of us believe we’re in a Fourth Paradigm of science beyond, EMPIRICISM, ANALYSIS, and SIMULATION to a 4th where insight is discovered through exploring and manipulating large data sets. As such, Information can be thought of as a FOURTH pillar of democracy as we strategize for the future.
Indeed as we govern and manage, there are some wonderful existing climate datasets and associated tools to help citizens and govts prepare for and adapt to climate change. Here we are using open climate data in a GIS to calculate the percent difference between current and future precipitation. For California where I live, we are looking at a 44% reduction in precip in this region by the year 2090 – huge for a region in crisis already.
There are all manner of amazing visualization tools that heighten our understanding of how dangerous the Earth can be. We are in Hurricane season and recovering from the ravages of Matthew. This visualization showcases a new way to visualize the major typhoons that raged throughout the Western Pacific in August 2005, along with the variation in their intensity and thus danger to human life.
For the built environment, we can transform 2D data into smart 3D city models, to plan, assess, and make quality decisions about future development scenarios even according to changing climate scenarios (e.g., sun angle, best green spaces, heat indices from impervious surfaces, etc). We can compare designs with swipes and comments to arrive at the optimum urban plan.
In these examples we are aiming for climate resilience, community resilience, perhaps even personal resilience. But how about DIGITAL resilience? How can we ensure that the data, information and tools that we work so hard to collect, build, and curate are really used, and used effectively on the ground for climate resilience? Let me quickly posit 5 ideas.
First is to empower everyone with apps which is already happening but we want to be able to do this EFFECTIVELY on any device, at anywhere, any time.
As an example, this is Esri’s gallery of climate resilience maps and apps in support of President Obama’s Climate Action Plan and Climate Data Initiative  Partnership for Resilience and Preparedness (PREP) This is an open data site encouraging collaboration and open sharing of data and apps
Next, allow me to channel Master Yoda for just a second. He famously said: “Fear is the path to the dark side…. Anger leads to hate. Hate leads to suffering.” As a data Jedi, I say that ease leads to exposure and exposure leads to adoption.
As an example, this is one way to make Landsat much, much easier for resource managers and planners to understand and access the entire catalog of 80,000 Landsat scenes. This web app with the click of an icon, takes them through the different band combinations and spectral profiles for anywhere in the world. And there is more information at the web addresses on the slide. Each night Esri downloads and processes new Landsat scenes. These are not just cached images but are dynamic, high-performance image services that perform on-the-fly processing and dynamic mosaicking of Landsat’s multi-spectral and multi-temporal imagery.
On a more advanced note, we need to do more than just make our data or our code available through a site or portal, even through GitHub. We need to be more open about what we DO with that dataset or piece of code
This is about sharing WORKFLOWS through PARTNERSHIPS that enable people to work together effectively, as exemplified so nicely here by NOAA’s Digital Coast portal, as well as Esri’s extensive Green Infrastructure site with workflows to show what's possible in creating a comprehensive “greenprint” for the nation
Fourth, in order to make things reproducible in keeping with solid science, let’s make it virtual. Here I’m referring to emerging cataloging standards such as DOIs (digital object identifiers) and new innovations such as CONTAINERS, where you can package together an operating system, a server, your database, a Hadoop or Spark big data store, and share that as a single executable that “just runs” for the user. This may be the future of data sharing and “living” reports and journals.
Fifth, We MAY get maps, we often DON’T get graphs, but we ALL understand a good story. “People are moved by emotion. The best way to emotionally connect other people to our agenda begins with “Once upon a time…”
As such, to connect with communities and inspire action toward resilience, climate and data scientists MUST tell their STORY and the importance of that story
Happily there are many free apps available to help us easily tell stories with data and maps, data-driven narratives if you will. We currently host about 50,000 of these in the cloud, built by users themselves. Passionate users all around the world leveraging the easy and repeatable story map templates, such as The Bureau of Reclamation and the EPA, providing climate projections for major water basins throughout the US along with downloads of actual data Stanford University mapping out climate stories AS TOLD BY CITIZENS as part of a special course at Stanford.
So thank you for allowing me to share these ideas as a gateway to the excellent talks and discussions that will follow. You can access my talk at the URL on the screen. 5 ideas: Empower with apps; (2) ease leads to exposure, exposure leads to adoption; (3) just putting up your data, your code, and even the apps is not good enough – need to share WORKFLOWS as well; (4) make it reproducible by making it virtual; and (5) be willing to share what you do as a STORY, your data-driven narratives (and I shared the story map medium as one way to do this)

Climate Information, Tools, and Services for Enhancing Resilience

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Editor's Notes