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Construction & Materials Outlook AGC/Reed Construction Data Webinar January 27, 2009 Ken Simonson, Chief Economist AGC of America [email_address]
Current economic influences ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Author
The shifting construction market (total change November 2007 – November 2008: -3%) Source: Census  Bureau
Single-family (SF) vs. multifamily (MF) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Census
Housing outlook ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Author
Nonres ’07 totals, share, 12-month change Source:  Census  Bureau  11/08 Total Share vs. 11/07 Nonresidential total $742 billion 100% +9% Educational 108 15 +  5 Highway & street 84 11 +  8 Commercial 81 11 -13 Manufacturing 77 10 +61 Power 77 10 +27 Office 77 10 +10 Healthcare 48 7 +  7 Lodging 39 5 +17 Transportation 36 5 +  7 Sewage & waste disposal 27 4 +  2 Amusement 23 3 +  2 Other (communication; water; safety; relig.; conservation): 9% of total
Public construction (Seasonally adjusted at annual rate) Source:  Census  Bureau  11/08 Total State/Local Federal $322 billion $295 $27 Educational 89 87 2 Highway & street 84 83 1 Sewage & waste disposal 26 25 1 Transportation 26 23 2 Water supply 17 17 0.3 Office 16 10 6 Public Safety 14 10 4 Amusement & recreation 12 12 0.4 Power 11 11 0.7 Other (health care; residential; conservation; commercial) $27 billion
Spending outlook for 2009 Source: Census (2008); Author (2009) Actual Forecast 2008 2009 Residential - 27% - 2 to +2% Nonresidential +12% - 3 to - 9% Total - 5% - 1 to - 7%
Materials and components Source: BLS (CPI, PPI) ,[object Object],12 mo. to: 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12 /0 8 Const PPI 9.1% 8.2% 4.6% 4. 8 % 2.7 % CPI-U 3.3% 3.4% 2.5% 4.1% 0.1 % ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Change in Producer Prices for Construction vs. Consumer Prices, 2003 - 2008 (December 2003 = 100) Source: BLS (CPI, PPI) Dec. 2008
Change in Producer Prices for Construction Segments, 2003 - 2008 (December 2003 = 100) Source: BLS (CPI, PPI) Dec. 2008
Change in Producer Prices for Major Construction Inputs, 2003 - 2008 (December 2003 = 100) Source: BLS (CPI, PPI) Dec. 2008
Producer Price Indexes, 2007 vs. 2008 No. 2 Diesel Fuel Change from 12/07-12/08: -37% Steel Mill Products Change from 12/07-12/08: 5% Asphalt Paving Mixtures & Blocks Change from 12/07-12/08: 33% Source: BLS
Producer Price Indexes, 2007 vs. 2008 Gypsum Products Change from 12/07-12/08: 7% Lumber and Plywood Change from 12/07-12/08: -7% Concrete Products Change from 12/07-12/08: 4% Copper & Brass Mill Shapes Change from 12/07-12/08: -24%
Outlook for materials in ‘09 compared to ‘08 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Author’s forecasts
Outlook for materials (beyond 2009) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Author’s forecast
Construction jobs fall, but wages rise Employment   Average Hourly Earnings Source: BLS
State construction employment, 11/07 – 11/08 (U.S. total: -7.8%) 5 biggest losses 5 biggest gains Source: BLS
SD ND MT ID NV CA OR WA UT WY NE CO OK TX LA FL MN IA IL ME AZ NM KS WI OH MI NY VT IN MO AR KY TN NH PA RI MS AL SC NC GA VA WV MA CT AK HI NJ DE MD DC State construction employment, 11/07 – 11/08 AK 0% to 4% -0.1% to -7.7% -7.8% to -17%
Summary for 2009 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
AGC economic resources  (sign up by email to simonsonk@agc.org) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Ken Simonson Chief Economist Associated General Contractors of America simonsonk@agc.org, 703-837-5313 www.agc.org

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Construction And Materials Outlook

  • 1. Construction & Materials Outlook AGC/Reed Construction Data Webinar January 27, 2009 Ken Simonson, Chief Economist AGC of America [email_address]
  • 2.
  • 3. The shifting construction market (total change November 2007 – November 2008: -3%) Source: Census Bureau
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6. Nonres ’07 totals, share, 12-month change Source: Census Bureau 11/08 Total Share vs. 11/07 Nonresidential total $742 billion 100% +9% Educational 108 15 + 5 Highway & street 84 11 + 8 Commercial 81 11 -13 Manufacturing 77 10 +61 Power 77 10 +27 Office 77 10 +10 Healthcare 48 7 + 7 Lodging 39 5 +17 Transportation 36 5 + 7 Sewage & waste disposal 27 4 + 2 Amusement 23 3 + 2 Other (communication; water; safety; relig.; conservation): 9% of total
  • 7. Public construction (Seasonally adjusted at annual rate) Source: Census Bureau 11/08 Total State/Local Federal $322 billion $295 $27 Educational 89 87 2 Highway & street 84 83 1 Sewage & waste disposal 26 25 1 Transportation 26 23 2 Water supply 17 17 0.3 Office 16 10 6 Public Safety 14 10 4 Amusement & recreation 12 12 0.4 Power 11 11 0.7 Other (health care; residential; conservation; commercial) $27 billion
  • 8. Spending outlook for 2009 Source: Census (2008); Author (2009) Actual Forecast 2008 2009 Residential - 27% - 2 to +2% Nonresidential +12% - 3 to - 9% Total - 5% - 1 to - 7%
  • 9.
  • 10. Change in Producer Prices for Construction vs. Consumer Prices, 2003 - 2008 (December 2003 = 100) Source: BLS (CPI, PPI) Dec. 2008
  • 11. Change in Producer Prices for Construction Segments, 2003 - 2008 (December 2003 = 100) Source: BLS (CPI, PPI) Dec. 2008
  • 12. Change in Producer Prices for Major Construction Inputs, 2003 - 2008 (December 2003 = 100) Source: BLS (CPI, PPI) Dec. 2008
  • 13. Producer Price Indexes, 2007 vs. 2008 No. 2 Diesel Fuel Change from 12/07-12/08: -37% Steel Mill Products Change from 12/07-12/08: 5% Asphalt Paving Mixtures & Blocks Change from 12/07-12/08: 33% Source: BLS
  • 14. Producer Price Indexes, 2007 vs. 2008 Gypsum Products Change from 12/07-12/08: 7% Lumber and Plywood Change from 12/07-12/08: -7% Concrete Products Change from 12/07-12/08: 4% Copper & Brass Mill Shapes Change from 12/07-12/08: -24%
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17. Construction jobs fall, but wages rise Employment Average Hourly Earnings Source: BLS
  • 18. State construction employment, 11/07 – 11/08 (U.S. total: -7.8%) 5 biggest losses 5 biggest gains Source: BLS
  • 19. SD ND MT ID NV CA OR WA UT WY NE CO OK TX LA FL MN IA IL ME AZ NM KS WI OH MI NY VT IN MO AR KY TN NH PA RI MS AL SC NC GA VA WV MA CT AK HI NJ DE MD DC State construction employment, 11/07 – 11/08 AK 0% to 4% -0.1% to -7.7% -7.8% to -17%
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22. Ken Simonson Chief Economist Associated General Contractors of America simonsonk@agc.org, 703-837-5313 www.agc.org