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Using climate forecasts and crop modeling
to transform data into value for farmers
Guillermo A. Baigorria
gbaigorria@unl.edu
School of Natural Resources – and – Dpt. of Agronomy & Horticulture
International Consortium for
Categorical Climate Forecast Applications
CropClimate.org
Agricultural decisions
We can control and improve:
• Soils (fertilization, tillage/no-tillage, conservation, etc.)
• Land allocation (where to crop what)
• Genetics (variety, crop density, etc.)
• Competition (weeds, insects, etc.)
CropClimate.org
Agricultural decisions
We can control and improve:
• Soils (fertilization, tillage/no-tillage, conservation, etc.)
• Land allocation (where to crop what)
• Genetics (variety, crop density, etc.)
• Competition (weeds, insects, etc.)
We can not control:
ClimateMain cause for interannual variability
CropClimate.org
Agricultural decisions
We can not control:
But we can forecast it
and used it for decision making
Climate
Type of decisions
Tactical decisions: When to plant, when to irrigate, when to fertilize, etc.
Strategic decisions: Land allocation for different crops, selection of crop
variety, insurance (type and level), etc.
Long term decisions: Sell/purchase land, Invest on an irrigation system,
machinery, etc.
CropClimate.org
Type of decisions
Tactical decisions: When to plant, when to irrigate, when to fertilize, etc.
Strategic decisions: Land allocation for different crops, selection of crop
variety, insurance (type and level), etc.
Long term decisions: Sell/purchase land, Invest on an irrigation system,
machinery, etc.
CropClimate.org
Type of decisions
Tactical decisions: When to plant, when to irrigate, when to fertilize, etc.
Strategic decisions: Land allocation for different crops, selection of crop
variety, insurance (type and level), etc.
Long term decisions: Sell/purchase land, Invest on an irrigation system,
machinery, etc.
CropClimate.org
Risk Taker vs Risk Averse
CropClimate.org
CropClimate is a non-funded platform that
translates categorical seasonal climate information
into crop management decisions
to
take advantage and reduce impacts of climate on agriculture
CropClimate.org
CropClimate will support Users in making decisions such as:
- Selecting cultivar
- Selecting planting date
- Selecting plant density
- Selecting crop insurance
and it will provide Users with information about
- Nationwide county level crop yield forecasts (prices?)
- Climate risk forecasts
Categorical Seasonal Climate
monitoring & forecasts
(teleconnection indices)
Categorical
Discrete (e.g. El Niño, Neutral, La Niña)
Seasonal Climate
1 to 9 months in advance
CropClimate.org
Teleconnection indices
El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
El Niño La Niña
CropClimate.org
Teleconnection indices
El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
El Niño Neutral La Niña
CropClimate.org
Worldwide effects of ENSO
El Niño La Niña
CropClimate.org
CropClimate.org
Worldwide effects of ENSO
Source: https://www2.ucar.edu/
Teleconnections Map
CropClimate.org
Yield timeseries
CropClimate.org
Technology de-trended
yield timeseries
CropClimate.org
So we know the effects, now
What can we do?
CropClimate.org
CropClimate.org
Using climate forecasts and crop modeling
to transform data into value for farmers
Guillermo A. Baigorria
gbaigorria@unl.edu
School of Natural Resources – and – Dpt. of Agronomy & Horticulture
International Consortium for
Categorical Climate Forecast Applications
• Because climate is non-stationary, global and
regional climate driver trends are no longer
important
Source: The University of Alabama in Huntsville

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CropClimate | Using climate forecasts and crop modeling to transform data into value for farmers

  • 1. Using climate forecasts and crop modeling to transform data into value for farmers Guillermo A. Baigorria gbaigorria@unl.edu School of Natural Resources – and – Dpt. of Agronomy & Horticulture International Consortium for Categorical Climate Forecast Applications
  • 2. CropClimate.org Agricultural decisions We can control and improve: • Soils (fertilization, tillage/no-tillage, conservation, etc.) • Land allocation (where to crop what) • Genetics (variety, crop density, etc.) • Competition (weeds, insects, etc.)
  • 3. CropClimate.org Agricultural decisions We can control and improve: • Soils (fertilization, tillage/no-tillage, conservation, etc.) • Land allocation (where to crop what) • Genetics (variety, crop density, etc.) • Competition (weeds, insects, etc.) We can not control: ClimateMain cause for interannual variability
  • 4. CropClimate.org Agricultural decisions We can not control: But we can forecast it and used it for decision making Climate
  • 5. Type of decisions Tactical decisions: When to plant, when to irrigate, when to fertilize, etc. Strategic decisions: Land allocation for different crops, selection of crop variety, insurance (type and level), etc. Long term decisions: Sell/purchase land, Invest on an irrigation system, machinery, etc. CropClimate.org
  • 6. Type of decisions Tactical decisions: When to plant, when to irrigate, when to fertilize, etc. Strategic decisions: Land allocation for different crops, selection of crop variety, insurance (type and level), etc. Long term decisions: Sell/purchase land, Invest on an irrigation system, machinery, etc. CropClimate.org
  • 7. Type of decisions Tactical decisions: When to plant, when to irrigate, when to fertilize, etc. Strategic decisions: Land allocation for different crops, selection of crop variety, insurance (type and level), etc. Long term decisions: Sell/purchase land, Invest on an irrigation system, machinery, etc. CropClimate.org Risk Taker vs Risk Averse
  • 8. CropClimate.org CropClimate is a non-funded platform that translates categorical seasonal climate information into crop management decisions to take advantage and reduce impacts of climate on agriculture
  • 9. CropClimate.org CropClimate will support Users in making decisions such as: - Selecting cultivar - Selecting planting date - Selecting plant density - Selecting crop insurance and it will provide Users with information about - Nationwide county level crop yield forecasts (prices?) - Climate risk forecasts
  • 10. Categorical Seasonal Climate monitoring & forecasts (teleconnection indices) Categorical Discrete (e.g. El Niño, Neutral, La Niña) Seasonal Climate 1 to 9 months in advance CropClimate.org
  • 11. Teleconnection indices El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) El Niño La Niña CropClimate.org
  • 12. Teleconnection indices El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) El Niño Neutral La Niña CropClimate.org
  • 13. Worldwide effects of ENSO El Niño La Niña CropClimate.org
  • 18. So we know the effects, now What can we do? CropClimate.org
  • 20. Using climate forecasts and crop modeling to transform data into value for farmers Guillermo A. Baigorria gbaigorria@unl.edu School of Natural Resources – and – Dpt. of Agronomy & Horticulture International Consortium for Categorical Climate Forecast Applications
  • 21. • Because climate is non-stationary, global and regional climate driver trends are no longer important Source: The University of Alabama in Huntsville