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VARIABILIDAD CLIMÁTICA Y ALERTAS
AGROCLIMÁTICAS TEMPRANAS
Francisco Boshell V. – Consultor CIAT 8/14/2013
1
Variabilidad Climática en
Colombia
 Estacional - Intra anual – Intra estacional
Por: Zona de Confluencia Intertropical
(ZCIT), Ondas Madden-Julian, Ondas del
Este, Complejos Convectivos del
Pacífico, Amazonas, Orinoquia.
 Interanual
Por: Eventos ENOS, Oscilación
Cuasibienal, Oscilación Decadal del
Pacífico, Oscilación del Atlántico Norte.
Variabilidad climática intra anual - ZCIT
POSICIONES TIPICAS DE LA ZCIT
Fuente: IDEAM. Atlas climático de
Espinal taller CIAT- Gremios variabilidad climática saat
VARIABILIDAD INTERANUAL – EVENTOS ENOS
Condiciones Normales
Condiciones El Niño
8/14/2013Footer Text
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Condiciones La Niña
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http://esminfo.prenhall.com/science/geoanimations/animations/26_NinoN
Regiones El Niño (asociadas con ONI: Índice Oceánico Niño)
Para efecto de vigilancia y seguimiento de los Fenómenos El
Niño y La Niña, internacionalmente se ha convenido dividir el
océano Pacífico tropical en sectores representativos.
SECTOR
ORIENTAL
Sector centralSector occidental
Sector centro-
occidental
IndiceOceánicoNiño(ONI)
• Se calcula con la media móvil de períodos de tres
meses (desviaciones con los promedios de las
temperaturas superficiales del Pacífico). Smith,
Reynolds, 2003, J. Climate, 16, 1495-1510.
– El Niño: se caracteriza por un índice positivo
mayor o igual a +0.5°C.
– La Niña: se caracteriza por un índice negativo
menor o igual a -0.5°C.
– Los eventos ENSO se deben extender al menos
durante 5 meses consecutivos
Índice oceánico de el Niño (ONI)
El índice oceánico de el Niño (Oceanic
Niño Index, ONI) se define como la media
de tres meses de la desviación de la
temperatura de la superficie del mar
respecto de lo normal para la región Niño
3.4 del Pacífico. Los valores medios se
basan en el conjunto de datos de
reconstrucción extendida de la TSM
(Extended Reconstruction SST), que
constituye un análisis histórico y
homogéneo de la TSM.
Los periodos dominados por El Niño se
caracterizan por valores de ONI positivos
de 0,5 °C o mayores. Los periodos
dominados por La Niña se caracterizan
por valores de ONI negativos de -0,5 °C o
menores.
Para que un episodio se clasifique
indiscutiblemente como El Niño o
La Niña, estos umbrales se deben superar
en al menos cinco meses consecutivos.
Los episodios cálidos (rojo) y fríos (azul) se basan en un umbral de +/- 0.5º C del ONI
Los episodios cálidos (rojo) y fríos (azul) se basan en un umbral de +/- 0.5º C del
ONI
Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ
1976 -1.6 -1.2 -0.9 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8
1977 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8
1978 0.7 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1
1979 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5
1980 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1
1981 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
1982 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.3
1983 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -0.9 -0.8
1984 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -1.0 -1.1
1985 -1.0 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3
1986 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2
1987 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1
1988 0.8 0.5 0.1 -0.3 -0.8 -1.2 -1.2 -1.1 -1.3 -1.6 -1.9 -1.9
1989 -1.7 -1.5 -1.1 -0.9 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1
1990 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
1991 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.7
1992 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1
1993 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2
1994 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.3
1995 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8
1996 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4
1997 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5
1998 2.4 2.0 1.4 1.1 0.4 -0.1 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.3 -1.5
1999 -1.6 -1.2 -0.9 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -1.0 -1.2 -1.4 -1.6
2000 -1.6 -1.5 -1.1 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7
2001 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2
Espinal taller CIAT- Gremios variabilidad climática saat
19
20
21
22
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PREDICCIONES CLIMATICAS IDEAM JUL – SEPT 2013
http://institucional.ideam.gov.co/jsp/1696
PRECIPITACIÓN HISTÓRICA - NATAIMA (ESPINAL, TOLIMA) mm
AÑO ENERO FEBRE MARZO ABRIL MAYO JUNIO JULIO AGOST SEPTI OCTUB NOVIE DICIE
1971 57.6 96.7 230.5 99.2 179.2
1972 171.4 30.8 106.3 297.8 155.4 56.4 4.5 74.1 12.2 238.5 139.2 28.2
1973 62.4 13.6 38.3 163.1 141.3 81.9 112.6 94.9 179.0 79.6 145.8 67.6
1974 69.1 66.3 84.8 189.5 310.1 72.8 3.7 15.8 172.0 278.6 97.0 30.1
1975 10.8 125.7 234.4 73.3 394.6 86.3 78.6 69.8 180.6 251.8 132.3 51.1
1976 114.8 75.7 183.8 98.8 228.2 51.9 0.0 16.2 73.2 100.2 133.8 146.5
1977 11.7 177.7 127.6 54.9 151.8 163.9 33.0 42.7 117.7 265.1 147.2 52.4
1978 12.3 111.9 184.1 371.6 237.3 43.6 36.7 13.0 181.9 133.4 116.7 116.3
1979 41.4 54.5 116.2 157.2 203.7 16.6 7.8 143.7 152.3 198.5 55.1 51.2
1980 78.2 31.7 37.8 105.0 74.6 68.6 12.5 74.2 39.0 277.0 126.9 137.3
1981 58.9 145.1 31.8 249.9 332.7 74.1 54.6 160.9 36.4 239.5 111.6 68.8
1982 76.7 88.3 202.2 257.8 235.8 28.8 1.7 0.8 208.1 296.8 71.6 139.5
1983 11.5 97.1 73.5 231.8 129.0 7.5 15.6 11.1 127.3 114.8 107.0 134.5
1984 139.7 240.9 80.4 182.4 321.7 70.1 132.4 104.6 321.0 57.7 180.7 135.9
1985 0.0 41.2 35.9 202.0 173.8 14.6 35.2 62.1 187.3 167.2 95.9 22.7
1986 121.6 164.4 115.2 226.4 231.1 100.3 1.9 37.7 126.1 210.3 48.0 47.7
1987 32.1 84.5 91.5 203.8 180.7 57.3 51.7 41.5 96.1 238.3 37.6 83.0
1988 36.8 53.3 4.8 166.7 91.6 170.3 61.7 172.2 93.4 65.9 220.8 120.9
1989 90.9 107.8 71.7 72.7 81.3 149.7 78.3 56.9 119.8 235.2 30.5 85.0
1990 37.3 124.5 108.5 176.8 83.6 39.0 47.6 81.9 18.2 252.7 83.7 95.7
1991 32.4 42.4 160.3 123.3 262.5 110.7 121.7 31.0 307.3 82.2 245.2 29.8
1992 200.4 72.8 241.6 100.7 160.7 53.7 25.4 16.2 198.4 66.4 99.3 48.1
1993 163.1 27.2 149.0 307.7 255.7 14.5 18.6 48.0 186.9 410.4 269.3 137.5
1994 219.3 127.4 205.7 156.3 341.6 61.8 96.9 5.0 85.8 114.0 300.4 42.7
1995 61.0 442.4 52.6 75.7 142.9 103.4 * 76.8 235.4 163.4 95.9 207.9
1996 48.7 10.8 156.8 158.9 275.1 59.1 52.6 74.1 106.1 174.3 79.1 31.8
1997 50.6 106.1 209.5 53.6 63.6 292.6 0.0 1.4 45.1 130.4 153.6 140.4
1998 37.6 143.0 587.4 200.8 182.0 56.2 17.8 66.2 763.7 134.5 208.2 97.8
1999 39.0 160.0 198.6 216.1 183.2 182.6 27.8 47.9 165.8 199.6 64.6 103.8
2000 41.6 70.6 173.6 168.8 190.9 96.9 18.8 82.7 252.1 227.2 88.6 88.9
2001 30.4 39.3 274.7 58.0 184.1 37.9 82.7 10.0 76.0 116.5 231.7 118.2
2002 60.6 18.4 300.0 278.4 158.8 77.6 29.3 4.2 111.6 268.9 118.5 121.9
2003 9.5 104.7 214.4 216.0 133.0 300.4 15.3 20.0 158.8 115.7 104.1 68.4
2004 56.5 34.7 23.7 174.5 223.4 17.0 59.9 11.5 169.0 327.1 54.8 55.1
2005 54.6 48.2 164.4 77.6 313.4 82.5 23.3 39.3 170.2 239.9 219.0 93.3
2006 71.2 29.4 185.4 185.4 258.0 70.7 46.7 5.0 146.4 63.3 141.1 172.5
2007 109.7 6.8 254.0 412.7 266.1 73.6 167.7 19.2 24.7 213.8 155.6 51.2
2008 70.2 109.8 166.6 134.1 293.1 126.4 169.1 181.5 181.7 139.1 123.7 21.9
PROMEDIO 68.5 92.7 152.6 177.8 206.7 85.7 48.4 54.5 155.9 187.3 129.8 90.1
PRECIPITACIÓN ORDENADA - NATAIMA (ESPINAL, TOLIMA) mm
ENERO FEBRE MARZO ABRIL MAYO JUNIO JULIO AGOST SEPTI OCTUB NOVIE DICIE
1 0.8 12.2 57.7 30.5 21.9
2 0.0 6.8 4.8 53.6 63.6 7.5 0.0 1.4 18.2 63.3 37.6 22.7
3 9.5 10.8 23.7 54.9 74.6 14.5 0.0 4.2 24.7 65.9 48.0 28.2
4 10.8 13.6 31.8 58.0 81.3 14.6 1.7 5.0 36.4 66.4 54.8 29.8
5 11.5 18.4 35.9 72.7 83.6 16.6 1.9 5.0 39.0 79.6 55.1 30.1
6 11.7 27.2 37.8 73.3 91.6 17.0 3.7 10.0 45.1 82.2 64.6 31.8
7 12.3 29.4 38.3 75.7 129.0 28.8 4.5 11.1 73.2 100.2 71.6 42.7
8 30.4 30.8 52.6 77.6 133.0 37.9 7.8 11.5 76.0 114.0 79.1 47.7
9 32.1 31.7 71.7 98.8 141.3 39.0 12.5 13.0 85.8 114.8 83.7 48.1
10 32.4 34.7 73.5 100.7 142.9 43.6 15.3 15.8 93.4 115.7 88.6 51.1
11 36.8 39.3 80.4 105.0 151.8 51.9 15.6 16.2 96.1 116.5 95.9 51.2
12 37.3 41.2 84.8 123.3 155.4 53.7 17.8 16.2 96.7 130.4 95.9 51.2
13 37.6 42.4 91.5 134.1 158.8 56.2 18.6 19.2 106.1 133.4 97.0 52.4
14 39.0 48.2 106.3 156.3 160.7 56.4 18.8 20.0 111.6 134.5 99.2 55.1
15 41.4 53.3 108.5 157.2 173.8 57.3 23.3 31.0 117.7 139.1 99.3 67.6
16 41.6 54.5 115.2 158.9 180.7 59.1 25.4 37.7 119.8 163.4 104.1 68.4
17 48.7 66.3 116.2 163.1 182.0 61.8 27.8 39.3 126.1 167.2 107.0 68.8
18 50.6 70.6 127.6 166.7 183.2 68.6 29.3 41.5 127.3 174.3 111.6 83.0
19 54.6 72.8 149.0 168.8 184.1 70.1 33.0 42.7 146.4 112.1 116.7 85.0
20 56.5 75.7 75.0 174.5 190.9 70.7 35.2 47.9 152.3 198.5 118.5 88.9
21 58.9 84.5 156.8 176.8 203.7 72.8 36.7 48.0 85.2 199.6 123.7 51.3
22 60.6 88.3 160.3 117.5 143.3 73.6 46.7 20.8 158.8 210.3 126.9 93.3
23 61.0 44.8 164.4 182.4 223.4 74.1 47.6 56.9 165.8 213.8 86.8 95.7
24 62.4 97.1 166.6 185.4 228.2 77.6 19.2 57.6 169.0 227.2 132.3 97.8
25 36.4 104.7 173.6 189.5 231.1 81.9 51.7 62.1 170.2 230.5 133.8 103.8
26 69.1 106.1 183.8 200.8 235.8 82.5 52.6 66.2 172.0 235.2 139.2 116.3
27 70.2 107.8 184.1 202.0 237.3 51.5 54.6 69.8 179.0 238.3 141.1 118.2
28 71.2 109.8 185.4 203.8 255.7 86.3 59.9 74.1 180.6 238.5 145.8 120.9
29 76.7 111.9 198.6 216.0 258.0 96.9 61.7 74.1 181.7 239.5 147.2 121.9
30 78.2 124.5 202.2 216.1 262.5 100.3 78.3 74.2 181.9 239.9 153.6 134.5
31 90.9 125.7 205.7 226.4 266.1 103.4 78.6 76.8 186.9 251.8 155.6 135.9
32 109.7 127.4 209.5 231.8 275.1 110.7 82.7 81.9 187.3 252.7 180.7 137.3
33 114.8 143.0 214.4 249.9 293.1 126.4 96.9 82.7 198.4 265.1 208.2 137.5
34 121.6 145.1 234.4 257.8 310.1 149.7 112.6 94.9 208.1 268.9 219.0 139.5
35 139.7 160.0 241.6 278.4 313.4 163.9 121.7 104.6 235.4 277.0 220.8 140.4
36 163.1 164.4 254.0 297.8 321.7 170.3 132.4 143.7 252.1 278.6 231.7 146.5
37 171.4 177.7 274.7 307.7 332.7 182.6 167.7 160.9 307.3 296.8 245.2 172.5
38 200.4 240.9 300.0 371.6 341.6 292.6 169.1 172.2 321.0 327.1 269.3 179.2
39 219.3 442.4 587.4 412.7 394.6 300.4 * 181.5 763.7 410.4 300.4 207.9
Balance hídrico – Requerimiento Riego Maíz. Siembra: agosto 1
CROPWAT – Simulación con precipitación estimada siguientes meses
8/14/2013Footer Text
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Estimación reducción rendimiento potencial bajo secano – f. s. agosto 1
8/14/2013Footer Text
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Balance hídrico – Requerimiento Riego Maíz. Siembra: agosto 20
CROPWAT – Simulación con precipitación estimada siguientes meses
8/14/2013Footer Text
31
Estimación reducción rendimiento potencial bajo secano – f. s. agosto 20
8/14/2013Footer Text
32
8/14/2013Footer Text
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Espinal taller CIAT- Gremios variabilidad climática saat

  • 1. VARIABILIDAD CLIMÁTICA Y ALERTAS AGROCLIMÁTICAS TEMPRANAS Francisco Boshell V. – Consultor CIAT 8/14/2013 1
  • 2. Variabilidad Climática en Colombia  Estacional - Intra anual – Intra estacional Por: Zona de Confluencia Intertropical (ZCIT), Ondas Madden-Julian, Ondas del Este, Complejos Convectivos del Pacífico, Amazonas, Orinoquia.  Interanual Por: Eventos ENOS, Oscilación Cuasibienal, Oscilación Decadal del Pacífico, Oscilación del Atlántico Norte.
  • 5. Fuente: IDEAM. Atlas climático de
  • 14. Regiones El Niño (asociadas con ONI: Índice Oceánico Niño) Para efecto de vigilancia y seguimiento de los Fenómenos El Niño y La Niña, internacionalmente se ha convenido dividir el océano Pacífico tropical en sectores representativos. SECTOR ORIENTAL Sector centralSector occidental Sector centro- occidental
  • 15. IndiceOceánicoNiño(ONI) • Se calcula con la media móvil de períodos de tres meses (desviaciones con los promedios de las temperaturas superficiales del Pacífico). Smith, Reynolds, 2003, J. Climate, 16, 1495-1510. – El Niño: se caracteriza por un índice positivo mayor o igual a +0.5°C. – La Niña: se caracteriza por un índice negativo menor o igual a -0.5°C. – Los eventos ENSO se deben extender al menos durante 5 meses consecutivos Índice oceánico de el Niño (ONI) El índice oceánico de el Niño (Oceanic Niño Index, ONI) se define como la media de tres meses de la desviación de la temperatura de la superficie del mar respecto de lo normal para la región Niño 3.4 del Pacífico. Los valores medios se basan en el conjunto de datos de reconstrucción extendida de la TSM (Extended Reconstruction SST), que constituye un análisis histórico y homogéneo de la TSM. Los periodos dominados por El Niño se caracterizan por valores de ONI positivos de 0,5 °C o mayores. Los periodos dominados por La Niña se caracterizan por valores de ONI negativos de -0,5 °C o menores. Para que un episodio se clasifique indiscutiblemente como El Niño o La Niña, estos umbrales se deben superar en al menos cinco meses consecutivos.
  • 16. Los episodios cálidos (rojo) y fríos (azul) se basan en un umbral de +/- 0.5º C del ONI
  • 17. Los episodios cálidos (rojo) y fríos (azul) se basan en un umbral de +/- 0.5º C del ONI Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 1976 -1.6 -1.2 -0.9 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 1977 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 1978 0.7 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 1979 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 1980 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 1981 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 1982 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.3 1983 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -0.9 -0.8 1984 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -1.0 -1.1 1985 -1.0 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 1986 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1987 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 1988 0.8 0.5 0.1 -0.3 -0.8 -1.2 -1.2 -1.1 -1.3 -1.6 -1.9 -1.9 1989 -1.7 -1.5 -1.1 -0.9 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 1990 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 1991 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.7 1992 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 1993 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 1994 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.3 1995 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 1996 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 1997 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 1998 2.4 2.0 1.4 1.1 0.4 -0.1 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.3 -1.5 1999 -1.6 -1.2 -0.9 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -1.0 -1.2 -1.4 -1.6 2000 -1.6 -1.5 -1.1 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 2001 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2
  • 19. 19
  • 20. 20
  • 21. 21
  • 22. 22
  • 26. PREDICCIONES CLIMATICAS IDEAM JUL – SEPT 2013 http://institucional.ideam.gov.co/jsp/1696
  • 27. PRECIPITACIÓN HISTÓRICA - NATAIMA (ESPINAL, TOLIMA) mm AÑO ENERO FEBRE MARZO ABRIL MAYO JUNIO JULIO AGOST SEPTI OCTUB NOVIE DICIE 1971 57.6 96.7 230.5 99.2 179.2 1972 171.4 30.8 106.3 297.8 155.4 56.4 4.5 74.1 12.2 238.5 139.2 28.2 1973 62.4 13.6 38.3 163.1 141.3 81.9 112.6 94.9 179.0 79.6 145.8 67.6 1974 69.1 66.3 84.8 189.5 310.1 72.8 3.7 15.8 172.0 278.6 97.0 30.1 1975 10.8 125.7 234.4 73.3 394.6 86.3 78.6 69.8 180.6 251.8 132.3 51.1 1976 114.8 75.7 183.8 98.8 228.2 51.9 0.0 16.2 73.2 100.2 133.8 146.5 1977 11.7 177.7 127.6 54.9 151.8 163.9 33.0 42.7 117.7 265.1 147.2 52.4 1978 12.3 111.9 184.1 371.6 237.3 43.6 36.7 13.0 181.9 133.4 116.7 116.3 1979 41.4 54.5 116.2 157.2 203.7 16.6 7.8 143.7 152.3 198.5 55.1 51.2 1980 78.2 31.7 37.8 105.0 74.6 68.6 12.5 74.2 39.0 277.0 126.9 137.3 1981 58.9 145.1 31.8 249.9 332.7 74.1 54.6 160.9 36.4 239.5 111.6 68.8 1982 76.7 88.3 202.2 257.8 235.8 28.8 1.7 0.8 208.1 296.8 71.6 139.5 1983 11.5 97.1 73.5 231.8 129.0 7.5 15.6 11.1 127.3 114.8 107.0 134.5 1984 139.7 240.9 80.4 182.4 321.7 70.1 132.4 104.6 321.0 57.7 180.7 135.9 1985 0.0 41.2 35.9 202.0 173.8 14.6 35.2 62.1 187.3 167.2 95.9 22.7 1986 121.6 164.4 115.2 226.4 231.1 100.3 1.9 37.7 126.1 210.3 48.0 47.7 1987 32.1 84.5 91.5 203.8 180.7 57.3 51.7 41.5 96.1 238.3 37.6 83.0 1988 36.8 53.3 4.8 166.7 91.6 170.3 61.7 172.2 93.4 65.9 220.8 120.9 1989 90.9 107.8 71.7 72.7 81.3 149.7 78.3 56.9 119.8 235.2 30.5 85.0 1990 37.3 124.5 108.5 176.8 83.6 39.0 47.6 81.9 18.2 252.7 83.7 95.7 1991 32.4 42.4 160.3 123.3 262.5 110.7 121.7 31.0 307.3 82.2 245.2 29.8 1992 200.4 72.8 241.6 100.7 160.7 53.7 25.4 16.2 198.4 66.4 99.3 48.1 1993 163.1 27.2 149.0 307.7 255.7 14.5 18.6 48.0 186.9 410.4 269.3 137.5 1994 219.3 127.4 205.7 156.3 341.6 61.8 96.9 5.0 85.8 114.0 300.4 42.7 1995 61.0 442.4 52.6 75.7 142.9 103.4 * 76.8 235.4 163.4 95.9 207.9 1996 48.7 10.8 156.8 158.9 275.1 59.1 52.6 74.1 106.1 174.3 79.1 31.8 1997 50.6 106.1 209.5 53.6 63.6 292.6 0.0 1.4 45.1 130.4 153.6 140.4 1998 37.6 143.0 587.4 200.8 182.0 56.2 17.8 66.2 763.7 134.5 208.2 97.8 1999 39.0 160.0 198.6 216.1 183.2 182.6 27.8 47.9 165.8 199.6 64.6 103.8 2000 41.6 70.6 173.6 168.8 190.9 96.9 18.8 82.7 252.1 227.2 88.6 88.9 2001 30.4 39.3 274.7 58.0 184.1 37.9 82.7 10.0 76.0 116.5 231.7 118.2 2002 60.6 18.4 300.0 278.4 158.8 77.6 29.3 4.2 111.6 268.9 118.5 121.9 2003 9.5 104.7 214.4 216.0 133.0 300.4 15.3 20.0 158.8 115.7 104.1 68.4 2004 56.5 34.7 23.7 174.5 223.4 17.0 59.9 11.5 169.0 327.1 54.8 55.1 2005 54.6 48.2 164.4 77.6 313.4 82.5 23.3 39.3 170.2 239.9 219.0 93.3 2006 71.2 29.4 185.4 185.4 258.0 70.7 46.7 5.0 146.4 63.3 141.1 172.5 2007 109.7 6.8 254.0 412.7 266.1 73.6 167.7 19.2 24.7 213.8 155.6 51.2 2008 70.2 109.8 166.6 134.1 293.1 126.4 169.1 181.5 181.7 139.1 123.7 21.9 PROMEDIO 68.5 92.7 152.6 177.8 206.7 85.7 48.4 54.5 155.9 187.3 129.8 90.1
  • 28. PRECIPITACIÓN ORDENADA - NATAIMA (ESPINAL, TOLIMA) mm ENERO FEBRE MARZO ABRIL MAYO JUNIO JULIO AGOST SEPTI OCTUB NOVIE DICIE 1 0.8 12.2 57.7 30.5 21.9 2 0.0 6.8 4.8 53.6 63.6 7.5 0.0 1.4 18.2 63.3 37.6 22.7 3 9.5 10.8 23.7 54.9 74.6 14.5 0.0 4.2 24.7 65.9 48.0 28.2 4 10.8 13.6 31.8 58.0 81.3 14.6 1.7 5.0 36.4 66.4 54.8 29.8 5 11.5 18.4 35.9 72.7 83.6 16.6 1.9 5.0 39.0 79.6 55.1 30.1 6 11.7 27.2 37.8 73.3 91.6 17.0 3.7 10.0 45.1 82.2 64.6 31.8 7 12.3 29.4 38.3 75.7 129.0 28.8 4.5 11.1 73.2 100.2 71.6 42.7 8 30.4 30.8 52.6 77.6 133.0 37.9 7.8 11.5 76.0 114.0 79.1 47.7 9 32.1 31.7 71.7 98.8 141.3 39.0 12.5 13.0 85.8 114.8 83.7 48.1 10 32.4 34.7 73.5 100.7 142.9 43.6 15.3 15.8 93.4 115.7 88.6 51.1 11 36.8 39.3 80.4 105.0 151.8 51.9 15.6 16.2 96.1 116.5 95.9 51.2 12 37.3 41.2 84.8 123.3 155.4 53.7 17.8 16.2 96.7 130.4 95.9 51.2 13 37.6 42.4 91.5 134.1 158.8 56.2 18.6 19.2 106.1 133.4 97.0 52.4 14 39.0 48.2 106.3 156.3 160.7 56.4 18.8 20.0 111.6 134.5 99.2 55.1 15 41.4 53.3 108.5 157.2 173.8 57.3 23.3 31.0 117.7 139.1 99.3 67.6 16 41.6 54.5 115.2 158.9 180.7 59.1 25.4 37.7 119.8 163.4 104.1 68.4 17 48.7 66.3 116.2 163.1 182.0 61.8 27.8 39.3 126.1 167.2 107.0 68.8 18 50.6 70.6 127.6 166.7 183.2 68.6 29.3 41.5 127.3 174.3 111.6 83.0 19 54.6 72.8 149.0 168.8 184.1 70.1 33.0 42.7 146.4 112.1 116.7 85.0 20 56.5 75.7 75.0 174.5 190.9 70.7 35.2 47.9 152.3 198.5 118.5 88.9 21 58.9 84.5 156.8 176.8 203.7 72.8 36.7 48.0 85.2 199.6 123.7 51.3 22 60.6 88.3 160.3 117.5 143.3 73.6 46.7 20.8 158.8 210.3 126.9 93.3 23 61.0 44.8 164.4 182.4 223.4 74.1 47.6 56.9 165.8 213.8 86.8 95.7 24 62.4 97.1 166.6 185.4 228.2 77.6 19.2 57.6 169.0 227.2 132.3 97.8 25 36.4 104.7 173.6 189.5 231.1 81.9 51.7 62.1 170.2 230.5 133.8 103.8 26 69.1 106.1 183.8 200.8 235.8 82.5 52.6 66.2 172.0 235.2 139.2 116.3 27 70.2 107.8 184.1 202.0 237.3 51.5 54.6 69.8 179.0 238.3 141.1 118.2 28 71.2 109.8 185.4 203.8 255.7 86.3 59.9 74.1 180.6 238.5 145.8 120.9 29 76.7 111.9 198.6 216.0 258.0 96.9 61.7 74.1 181.7 239.5 147.2 121.9 30 78.2 124.5 202.2 216.1 262.5 100.3 78.3 74.2 181.9 239.9 153.6 134.5 31 90.9 125.7 205.7 226.4 266.1 103.4 78.6 76.8 186.9 251.8 155.6 135.9 32 109.7 127.4 209.5 231.8 275.1 110.7 82.7 81.9 187.3 252.7 180.7 137.3 33 114.8 143.0 214.4 249.9 293.1 126.4 96.9 82.7 198.4 265.1 208.2 137.5 34 121.6 145.1 234.4 257.8 310.1 149.7 112.6 94.9 208.1 268.9 219.0 139.5 35 139.7 160.0 241.6 278.4 313.4 163.9 121.7 104.6 235.4 277.0 220.8 140.4 36 163.1 164.4 254.0 297.8 321.7 170.3 132.4 143.7 252.1 278.6 231.7 146.5 37 171.4 177.7 274.7 307.7 332.7 182.6 167.7 160.9 307.3 296.8 245.2 172.5 38 200.4 240.9 300.0 371.6 341.6 292.6 169.1 172.2 321.0 327.1 269.3 179.2 39 219.3 442.4 587.4 412.7 394.6 300.4 * 181.5 763.7 410.4 300.4 207.9
  • 29. Balance hídrico – Requerimiento Riego Maíz. Siembra: agosto 1 CROPWAT – Simulación con precipitación estimada siguientes meses 8/14/2013Footer Text 29
  • 30. Estimación reducción rendimiento potencial bajo secano – f. s. agosto 1 8/14/2013Footer Text 30
  • 31. Balance hídrico – Requerimiento Riego Maíz. Siembra: agosto 20 CROPWAT – Simulación con precipitación estimada siguientes meses 8/14/2013Footer Text 31
  • 32. Estimación reducción rendimiento potencial bajo secano – f. s. agosto 20 8/14/2013Footer Text 32