1. National level – stakeholder processes ongoing or coming soon
2. Donor collaboration – thematic priorities
affirmed by IADG meeting Sept 16-18
followed up by lead agency per theme
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White Gold: Opportunities for Dairy Sector Development Collaboration in Ethiopia & East Africa-Dr. Nathaniel Makoni and Jan van der Lee
1. White Gold: Opportunities for Dairy Sector
Development Collaboration in Ethiopia & East Africa
African Dairy Conference & Exhibition
KICC, Nairobi
September 26, 2014
Nathaniel Makoni, ABSTCM Ltd
Raphael Mwai, PPD Consultants
Tsehay Redda, EDBD Services
Akke van der Zijpp, Wageningen University
Jan van der Lee, Centre for Development Innovation, Wageningen UR
3. Outline
1. Dairy Status
2. Key Issues
• Regional level
• Country Level
4. Follow up Donor Collaboration
Agenda
5. Conclusion
4. Dairy Status
Dairy Value Chains Scenarios - East African Countries
Processor Aggregator
/Transport Inputs & MCC Transport Retail
services
To Market
To market –raw warm milk Consumer
Cottage
industry
5. East Africa Dairy Development Trajectory
Uganda
97%
95%
90%
80%
Formal:Informal Sector
Formal
13%
Informal
87%
80%
80%
6. Regional Economics Data
943
GDP /Capita WB 2012/13
620 609
547
454
251
Kenya Rwanda Tanzania Uganda Ethiopia Burundi
8
Dairy Contribution to GDP (%)
?
6 6
3 3
1.53
Kenya Rwanda Ethiopia Uganda Burundi Tanzania
Significant investments in dairy production
7. National Cattle, & Dairy Cattle Data
National Cattle Population (Million)
49.2
21 18
12.8
1.5 0.7
3.5
Improved Dairy Breed Population
0.68 0.65
(Million)
0.2 0.19 0.01
Kenya Tanzania Uganda Rwanda Ethiopia Burundi
19
Improved Dairy Cattle as % of
National Cattle Population
13
5
3
1.4 1
Kenya Rwanda Uganda Tanzania Burundi Ethiopia
Kenya & Rwanda
lead in dairy
genetics infusion
8. Regional AI Status
13
AI Cost/Service (US$) & Farmgate milk
equivalent/Service (liters)
26
30
57
12 13 15 12
35
63
Annual AI as % of National Herd
5.8
4.6
0.3 0.2
Improve artificial insemination cost & efficiency of delivery
83 86
AI use <20%
Sexed <2%
18.0
12.0
Kenya Rwanda Tanzania Uganda Ethiopia Burundi
National bull studs in all Countries
9. National Milk Production / Year (Million Liters)
4400
3300
1650
Total Regional Production = 11.06 Billion
Potential Demand = 48.5 Billion
Estimated Gap = 37.4 Billion
1190
450
73
Kenya Ethiopia Tanzania Uganda Rwanda Burundi
10. Regional Farm Gate Prices/Liter (US$)
0.41
0.39
0.36
0.22
0.18
0.14
Ethiopia Kenya Burundi Rwanda Tanzania Uganda
Uganda has least cost/ ltr. for farm-gate and processed milk
Ethiopia risks to be uncompetitive
The farm gate prices reflect feed costs
11. 2.9
Milk Processing Capacity
Installed vs Utilized Capacity (Million Liters)
1.0
0.4
0.2 0.2 0.2
1.2
0.6
0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
Kenya has the dominant regional dairy processor
Some claimed installed capacity is uninstalled
Under-utilized capacity across the region averages 49%
What is the effect of low capacity utilization on milk price & consumption?
12. Regional Milk Processing and Packaging
1.19
0.98
Processed Milk Price/Liter
0.87
0.65
0.59
0.38
Rwanda Burundi Ethiopia Tanzania Kenya Uganda
• Rwanda & Burundi have high cost of pasteurized milk
due to (OH & packaging 50%)
• Uganda has lowest price of pasteurized milk
19. Follow up
1. National level – stakeholder processes
ongoing or coming soon
2. Donor collaboration – thematic priorities
affirmed by IADG meeting Sept 16-18
followed up by lead agency per theme
20. Donor agenda - Thematic priorities
1. More milk from roughage
2. Breeding for more and better animals
3. Healthy animals
4. Strengthening of farmer organizations and access to finance
5. Safeguarding and rewarding good milk quality
6. Better policy through better availability of data on farm/firm-,
chain-, and sector level
7. Competency of dairy farmers, staff, and entrepreneurs along
the value chain
8. Sustainable intensification related issues – biogas and closing
the nutrient cycle
21. Thank You
“White Gold” report can be downloaded from:
edepot.wur.nl/307878