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White Gold: Opportunities for Dairy Sector 
Development Collaboration in Ethiopia & East Africa 
African Dairy Conference & Exhibition 
KICC, Nairobi 
September 26, 2014 
Nathaniel Makoni, ABSTCM Ltd 
Raphael Mwai, PPD Consultants 
Tsehay Redda, EDBD Services 
Akke van der Zijpp, Wageningen University 
Jan van der Lee, Centre for Development Innovation, Wageningen UR
Study Countries
Outline 
1. Dairy Status 
2. Key Issues 
• Regional level 
• Country Level 
4. Follow up Donor Collaboration 
Agenda 
5. Conclusion
Dairy Status 
Dairy Value Chains Scenarios - East African Countries 
Processor Aggregator 
/Transport Inputs & MCC Transport Retail 
services 
To Market 
To market –raw warm milk Consumer 
Cottage 
industry
East Africa Dairy Development Trajectory 
Uganda 
97% 
95% 
90% 
80% 
Formal:Informal Sector 
Formal 
13% 
Informal 
87% 
80% 
80%
Regional Economics Data 
943 
GDP /Capita WB 2012/13 
620 609 
547 
454 
251 
Kenya Rwanda Tanzania Uganda Ethiopia Burundi 
8 
Dairy Contribution to GDP (%) 
? 
6 6 
3 3 
1.53 
Kenya Rwanda Ethiopia Uganda Burundi Tanzania 
Significant investments in dairy production
National Cattle, & Dairy Cattle Data 
National Cattle Population (Million) 
49.2 
21 18 
12.8 
1.5 0.7 
3.5 
Improved Dairy Breed Population 
0.68 0.65 
(Million) 
0.2 0.19 0.01 
Kenya Tanzania Uganda Rwanda Ethiopia Burundi 
19 
Improved Dairy Cattle as % of 
National Cattle Population 
13 
5 
3 
1.4 1 
Kenya Rwanda Uganda Tanzania Burundi Ethiopia 
Kenya & Rwanda 
lead in dairy 
genetics infusion
Regional AI Status 
13 
AI Cost/Service (US$) & Farmgate milk 
equivalent/Service (liters) 
26 
30 
57 
12 13 15 12 
35 
63 
Annual AI as % of National Herd 
5.8 
4.6 
0.3 0.2 
Improve artificial insemination cost & efficiency of delivery 
83 86 
AI use <20% 
Sexed <2% 
18.0 
12.0 
Kenya Rwanda Tanzania Uganda Ethiopia Burundi 
National bull studs in all Countries
National Milk Production / Year (Million Liters) 
4400 
3300 
1650 
Total Regional Production = 11.06 Billion 
Potential Demand = 48.5 Billion 
Estimated Gap = 37.4 Billion 
1190 
450 
73 
Kenya Ethiopia Tanzania Uganda Rwanda Burundi
Regional Farm Gate Prices/Liter (US$) 
0.41 
0.39 
0.36 
0.22 
0.18 
0.14 
Ethiopia Kenya Burundi Rwanda Tanzania Uganda 
Uganda has least cost/ ltr. for farm-gate and processed milk 
Ethiopia risks to be uncompetitive 
The farm gate prices reflect feed costs
2.9 
Milk Processing Capacity 
Installed vs Utilized Capacity (Million Liters) 
1.0 
0.4 
0.2 0.2 0.2 
1.2 
0.6 
0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 
 Kenya has the dominant regional dairy processor 
 Some claimed installed capacity is uninstalled 
 Under-utilized capacity across the region averages 49% 
What is the effect of low capacity utilization on milk price & consumption?
Regional Milk Processing and Packaging 
1.19 
0.98 
Processed Milk Price/Liter 
0.87 
0.65 
0.59 
0.38 
Rwanda Burundi Ethiopia Tanzania Kenya Uganda 
• Rwanda & Burundi have high cost of pasteurized milk 
due to (OH & packaging 50%) 
• Uganda has lowest price of pasteurized milk
Dairy Product Range (8) 
Brookside, NKCC, Pearl & SALL
Population, Urbanization, Income Growth and Milk Consumption/Capita 
92 
National, Urban Population (Million) & % 
Population Urban Urban Gr. Rate 
49 
Urban Growth Rate 
43 
36 
12 11 
24 
12 8 4 4 4 6 6 2 5 1 4 
Ethiopia Tanzania Kenya Uganda Rwanda Burundi 
Kenya 
Tanzania 
Rwanda 
Uganda 
Ethiopia 
Burundi 
270 
510 
470 
630 
620 
930 
Gross National Income Per Capita - 
East Africa (USD) 
99 
Milk Consumption/Capita (liters) 
55 
40 
23 19 
6 
1. Region’s 
consumption < FAO 
rec. 200l/Capita 
2. Potential demand 
remains high
Poor 
infrastructure 
& access to 
markets 
Low cow 
productivity: 
feed&breed 
Lack of 
conducive 
policy & 
incentives 
Limited 
research & 
extension 
Low female & 
youth 
involvement 
Limited official 
industry data 
National & 
Tranboundary 
diseases 
Low farmer 
education & 
organization 
Seasonal 
milk supply 
Poor milk 
quality 
Inadequate 
financial 
services
JESA Integrated Dairy Model 
JESA Commercial Farm Milk supply 50% 
Smallholder Farms -Milk supply 50% 
Price premium $0.4 vs $0.3 
AI, Extension, Finance 
& Veterinary services 
US$0.4/ litre
Blessed Dairy Consolidation & Quality improvement 
RDCP-II Assistance 
US$28,875 
Model 
Now 2 trucks 
RwF 300 
RwF 320 
RwF 250 
RwF 400 
RwF 180
Follow-up activities 
after Expert Consultation 
Masaka-Mbarara, 
Uganda, April 2014
Follow up 
1. National level – stakeholder processes 
ongoing or coming soon 
2. Donor collaboration – thematic priorities 
affirmed by IADG meeting Sept 16-18 
followed up by lead agency per theme
Donor agenda - Thematic priorities 
1. More milk from roughage 
2. Breeding for more and better animals 
3. Healthy animals 
4. Strengthening of farmer organizations and access to finance 
5. Safeguarding and rewarding good milk quality 
6. Better policy through better availability of data on farm/firm-, 
chain-, and sector level 
7. Competency of dairy farmers, staff, and entrepreneurs along 
the value chain 
8. Sustainable intensification related issues – biogas and closing 
the nutrient cycle
Thank You 
“White Gold” report can be downloaded from: 
edepot.wur.nl/307878

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White Gold: Opportunities for Dairy Sector Development Collaboration in Ethiopia & East Africa-Dr. Nathaniel Makoni and Jan van der Lee

  • 1. White Gold: Opportunities for Dairy Sector Development Collaboration in Ethiopia & East Africa African Dairy Conference & Exhibition KICC, Nairobi September 26, 2014 Nathaniel Makoni, ABSTCM Ltd Raphael Mwai, PPD Consultants Tsehay Redda, EDBD Services Akke van der Zijpp, Wageningen University Jan van der Lee, Centre for Development Innovation, Wageningen UR
  • 3. Outline 1. Dairy Status 2. Key Issues • Regional level • Country Level 4. Follow up Donor Collaboration Agenda 5. Conclusion
  • 4. Dairy Status Dairy Value Chains Scenarios - East African Countries Processor Aggregator /Transport Inputs & MCC Transport Retail services To Market To market –raw warm milk Consumer Cottage industry
  • 5. East Africa Dairy Development Trajectory Uganda 97% 95% 90% 80% Formal:Informal Sector Formal 13% Informal 87% 80% 80%
  • 6. Regional Economics Data 943 GDP /Capita WB 2012/13 620 609 547 454 251 Kenya Rwanda Tanzania Uganda Ethiopia Burundi 8 Dairy Contribution to GDP (%) ? 6 6 3 3 1.53 Kenya Rwanda Ethiopia Uganda Burundi Tanzania Significant investments in dairy production
  • 7. National Cattle, & Dairy Cattle Data National Cattle Population (Million) 49.2 21 18 12.8 1.5 0.7 3.5 Improved Dairy Breed Population 0.68 0.65 (Million) 0.2 0.19 0.01 Kenya Tanzania Uganda Rwanda Ethiopia Burundi 19 Improved Dairy Cattle as % of National Cattle Population 13 5 3 1.4 1 Kenya Rwanda Uganda Tanzania Burundi Ethiopia Kenya & Rwanda lead in dairy genetics infusion
  • 8. Regional AI Status 13 AI Cost/Service (US$) & Farmgate milk equivalent/Service (liters) 26 30 57 12 13 15 12 35 63 Annual AI as % of National Herd 5.8 4.6 0.3 0.2 Improve artificial insemination cost & efficiency of delivery 83 86 AI use <20% Sexed <2% 18.0 12.0 Kenya Rwanda Tanzania Uganda Ethiopia Burundi National bull studs in all Countries
  • 9. National Milk Production / Year (Million Liters) 4400 3300 1650 Total Regional Production = 11.06 Billion Potential Demand = 48.5 Billion Estimated Gap = 37.4 Billion 1190 450 73 Kenya Ethiopia Tanzania Uganda Rwanda Burundi
  • 10. Regional Farm Gate Prices/Liter (US$) 0.41 0.39 0.36 0.22 0.18 0.14 Ethiopia Kenya Burundi Rwanda Tanzania Uganda Uganda has least cost/ ltr. for farm-gate and processed milk Ethiopia risks to be uncompetitive The farm gate prices reflect feed costs
  • 11. 2.9 Milk Processing Capacity Installed vs Utilized Capacity (Million Liters) 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2  Kenya has the dominant regional dairy processor  Some claimed installed capacity is uninstalled  Under-utilized capacity across the region averages 49% What is the effect of low capacity utilization on milk price & consumption?
  • 12. Regional Milk Processing and Packaging 1.19 0.98 Processed Milk Price/Liter 0.87 0.65 0.59 0.38 Rwanda Burundi Ethiopia Tanzania Kenya Uganda • Rwanda & Burundi have high cost of pasteurized milk due to (OH & packaging 50%) • Uganda has lowest price of pasteurized milk
  • 13. Dairy Product Range (8) Brookside, NKCC, Pearl & SALL
  • 14. Population, Urbanization, Income Growth and Milk Consumption/Capita 92 National, Urban Population (Million) & % Population Urban Urban Gr. Rate 49 Urban Growth Rate 43 36 12 11 24 12 8 4 4 4 6 6 2 5 1 4 Ethiopia Tanzania Kenya Uganda Rwanda Burundi Kenya Tanzania Rwanda Uganda Ethiopia Burundi 270 510 470 630 620 930 Gross National Income Per Capita - East Africa (USD) 99 Milk Consumption/Capita (liters) 55 40 23 19 6 1. Region’s consumption < FAO rec. 200l/Capita 2. Potential demand remains high
  • 15. Poor infrastructure & access to markets Low cow productivity: feed&breed Lack of conducive policy & incentives Limited research & extension Low female & youth involvement Limited official industry data National & Tranboundary diseases Low farmer education & organization Seasonal milk supply Poor milk quality Inadequate financial services
  • 16. JESA Integrated Dairy Model JESA Commercial Farm Milk supply 50% Smallholder Farms -Milk supply 50% Price premium $0.4 vs $0.3 AI, Extension, Finance & Veterinary services US$0.4/ litre
  • 17. Blessed Dairy Consolidation & Quality improvement RDCP-II Assistance US$28,875 Model Now 2 trucks RwF 300 RwF 320 RwF 250 RwF 400 RwF 180
  • 18. Follow-up activities after Expert Consultation Masaka-Mbarara, Uganda, April 2014
  • 19. Follow up 1. National level – stakeholder processes ongoing or coming soon 2. Donor collaboration – thematic priorities affirmed by IADG meeting Sept 16-18 followed up by lead agency per theme
  • 20. Donor agenda - Thematic priorities 1. More milk from roughage 2. Breeding for more and better animals 3. Healthy animals 4. Strengthening of farmer organizations and access to finance 5. Safeguarding and rewarding good milk quality 6. Better policy through better availability of data on farm/firm-, chain-, and sector level 7. Competency of dairy farmers, staff, and entrepreneurs along the value chain 8. Sustainable intensification related issues – biogas and closing the nutrient cycle
  • 21. Thank You “White Gold” report can be downloaded from: edepot.wur.nl/307878