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Managing Reform in Indonesia
From Tsunami Recovery to UKP4
Decision Science in Practice
Kuntoro Mangkusubroto Public Lectu...
6th Sept 2013 2
The Story of My LifeThe Story of My LifeThe Story of My LifeThe Story of My Life
(Lifelong Love Affair wit...
6th Sept 2013 3
DECISION SCIENCE IS ABOUT
Choices withChoices withChoices withChoices with consequencesconsequencesconsequ...
DECISION AND DELIVERY
Delivery
produce real results
A set of Right Decisions
Real Results
6th Sept 2013 4
THE CHOICES
6th Sept 2013 5
Question
Event 1
Probability 1
Strategy 1
Strategy n
Event j
Probability j
Outcome
1
Outcome
j...
THE ENVIRONMENT
6th Sept 2013 6
With
Opponent
Without
Opponent
(Competitive)
(Nature)
THE ENVIRONMENT
6th Sept 2013 7
With
Opponent
(Competitive)
Friendly /
Cooperative
Negotiation
(saddle point)
Hostile/non-...
B
B
THE ENVIRONMENT
6th Sept 2013 8
GAME!GAME!GAME!GAME!
A
VS
Strat. 1 Strat. 2 Strat. 3
Strat. 1
Strat. 2
Strat. 3
A
B
THE ENVIRONMENT
6th Sept 2013 9
Common Objective
(Coordination/
Cooperative)
Individual Objectives
(Multi games)
Groups Ob...
THE ENVIRONMENT
6th Sept 2013 10
Strategy 1Strategy 1Strategy 1Strategy 1 StrategyStrategyStrategyStrategy 2222
StrategySt...
PRACTICES
6th Sept 2013 11
MessyMessyMessyMessy (complex,(complex,(complex,(complex,
chaotic, infinite,…)chaotic, infinite...
REAL WORLD DECISION MAKING
6th Sept 2013 12
DecisionDecisionDecisionDecision
MakerMakerMakerMaker Analyst/SupportAnalyst/S...
6th Sept 2013 13
IT ALL STARTED WITH…
25 years long conflict
Aceh
6th Sept 2013 14
25 YEARS OF CONFLICT
6th Sept 2013 15
SYNCHRONIZING OBJECTIVE
SIGNALS
DAMAGE ALONG ACEH-NIAS WAS
UNPRECEDENTED
6th Sept 2013 16
172,000 dead & missing
550,000 in temporary
shelters/tents
800 k...
STRONG INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT TURNED
INTO EXTREME LOGISTIC MANAGEMENT
6th Sept 2013 17
900
International
Organizations
7.2
...
PLANNING FALLS BEHIND CHANGES
6th Sept 2013 18
• Build back, better!
• Local government capacity building
• Democratic env...
NEGOTIATING UNDER SOVEREIGN INFLUENCE
THE CASE OF IPP IN 2000
6th Sept 2013 19
Geothermal Non- geothermal
Darajat
4.2 ¢/kw...
EXTREME COMPLEXITY DECISION MAKING
6th Sept 2013 20
Political
EnvironmentSocial structure
and dynamics
“Problem
Definition...
SOCIALLY INCLUSIVE DECISION MAKING
COMMUNITY PARTICIPATION FOR VILLAGE PLANNING
6th Sept 2013 21
Bottom-up
Planning
COMMUNITIES DECIDE IF THEIR AREA WILL BE REBUILT
WITH NEW LAND CONSOLIDATION OR KEPT AS IT WAS
6th Sept 2013 22
Houses bui...
23
BREAKTHROUGH IN FLOW OF FUNDS TO
FACILITATE EASE OF EXECUTION
Govt. of
Indonesia
36%NGO
33%
Bilateral &
Multilateral
do...
GROUPS OBJECTIVES IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT:
BUILDING TRUST THROUGH ACCOUNTABILITY
FROM THE CONVENTIONAL ASSET INVENTORY SY...
THE CHALLENGES…
6th Sept 2013 25
THE RESULTS…
6th Sept 2013 26
A DEVELOPMENT PACE NEVER SEEN BEFORE IN
INDONESIAN HISTORY
6th Sept 2013 27
AMONG THE CHALLENGES…
6th Sept 2013 28
How to fight for adequate authorities?
Master Plan VS bottom up approach
Government...
KEY LESSONS LEARNED FROM POST DISASTER
RECONSTRUCTION
6th Sept 2013 29
NEVER expect perfect results
Scrutinized FLEXIBILIT...
THE JOURNEY BACK TO JAKARTA
PRESIDENT’S DELIVERY UNIT
for Development Monitoring
and Oversight
(PDU or UKP4)
6th Sept 2013...
IN 2009, THE PRESIDENT OF INDONESIA ESTABLISHED
THE FIRST DELIVERY UNIT OF THE WORLD’S BIGGEST
ARCHIPELAGO
“UKP4 is my
ear...
CONSISTENCY AND SYNCHRONIZATION IN DELIVERING
THE VISION OF THE PRESIDENT
SYNCHRONISATION
CONSISTENCY
UKP4, Planning
Agenc...
CONSISTENCY AND SYNCHRONIZATION IN DELIVERING
THE VISION OF THE PRESIDENT
6th Sept 2013 33
SYNCHRONISATION
CONSISTENCY
UKP...
NATIONAL PRIORITIES OF THE REPUBLIC
NATIONAL
PRIORITIES
(2010 – 14)
Bureaucracy
Reform &
Governance
1
Education
2
Public H...
LEADERSHIP STYLE AND BEHAVIOR
6th Sept 2013 35
Ministers
The Parliamentarians
Regional Leaders
The Leaders
ASSUMPTION: COMMON OBJECTIVE
6th Sept 2013 36
6th Sept 2013 37
THE POLITICS IN THE GOVERNMENT
Coordinating
Minister 1
Coordinating
Minister 2
Coordinating
Minister 3
Minister 1 Minister...
6th Sept 2013 39
IN REALITY…
6th Sept 2013 40
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
GEOSPATIAL INFORMATION SYSTEM TO ENSURE FIELD AND
REPORTING CONSISTENCY
(P100H-P13A1)
Pamsimas Kupang 10.17385 LS,
123.977...
ASSURING SYNCHRONIZATION AND CONSISTENCY
ACTION PLAN
MINISTRY/
AGENCY IN
CHARGE (MIC)
RELATED
AGENCY
CRITERIA FOR
SUCCESS
...
DEBOTTLENECKING FLOATING STORAGE RECEIVING UNIT
(FSRU) JAKARTA
6th Sept 2013 43
Location:
Muara Karang, Jakarta Utara
Coor...
COMPLICATION IN COORDINATION
6th Sept 2013 44
Coord. Min
Economic Aff.
Coord. Min
People’s Welfare
Coord. Min
Politics, Le...
ESCALATION LEADING TO EXECUTIVE DECISION
6th Sept 2013 45
“…I want the FSRU to
be finished in 2012…”
6th Sept 2013 46
DEBOTTLENECKING FLOATING STORAGE RECEIVING UNIT
(FSRU) JAKARTA
Issues identified in Aug 2010
FSRU inaugur...
RESULTS FOR THE NATION
6th Sept 2013 47
• Full on-stream 1 September 2013
(260 BBTUD)
• Fuel saving worth 2.4 million USD/...
MANY DOWN, MORE TO GO
• Donggi Senoro Gas Field
• Kalibaru New Port
• MRT Jakarta
• School Operational Assistance fund dis...
REAL WORLD DECISION MAKING
6th Sept 2013 49
DecisionDecisionDecisionDecision
MakerMakerMakerMaker Analyst/SupportAnalyst/S...
6th Sept 2013 50
DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM
AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL
• Serving the Decision Maker
• His choice and consequences
•...
6th Sept 2013 51
Thank youThank youThank youThank you
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Managing reform in indonesia

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Managing reform in indonesia

  1. 1. Managing Reform in Indonesia From Tsunami Recovery to UKP4 Decision Science in Practice Kuntoro Mangkusubroto Public Lecture Jakarta, 6th September 2013
  2. 2. 6th Sept 2013 2 The Story of My LifeThe Story of My LifeThe Story of My LifeThe Story of My Life (Lifelong Love Affair with Decision Science)(Lifelong Love Affair with Decision Science)(Lifelong Love Affair with Decision Science)(Lifelong Love Affair with Decision Science)
  3. 3. 6th Sept 2013 3 DECISION SCIENCE IS ABOUT Choices withChoices withChoices withChoices with consequencesconsequencesconsequencesconsequences ProcedureProcedureProcedureProcedure to pick theto pick theto pick theto pick the “best”“best”“best”“best” choicechoicechoicechoice
  4. 4. DECISION AND DELIVERY Delivery produce real results A set of Right Decisions Real Results 6th Sept 2013 4
  5. 5. THE CHOICES 6th Sept 2013 5 Question Event 1 Probability 1 Strategy 1 Strategy n Event j Probability j Outcome 1 Outcome j Maximum Expected Utility
  6. 6. THE ENVIRONMENT 6th Sept 2013 6 With Opponent Without Opponent (Competitive) (Nature)
  7. 7. THE ENVIRONMENT 6th Sept 2013 7 With Opponent (Competitive) Friendly / Cooperative Negotiation (saddle point) Hostile/non-cooperative (zero sum)
  8. 8. B B THE ENVIRONMENT 6th Sept 2013 8 GAME!GAME!GAME!GAME! A VS Strat. 1 Strat. 2 Strat. 3 Strat. 1 Strat. 2 Strat. 3 A B
  9. 9. THE ENVIRONMENT 6th Sept 2013 9 Common Objective (Coordination/ Cooperative) Individual Objectives (Multi games) Groups Objectives (Multi games)
  10. 10. THE ENVIRONMENT 6th Sept 2013 10 Strategy 1Strategy 1Strategy 1Strategy 1 StrategyStrategyStrategyStrategy 2222 StrategyStrategyStrategyStrategy 1111 StrategyStrategyStrategyStrategy 2222 IS THERE ANY SOLUTION?IS THERE ANY SOLUTION?IS THERE ANY SOLUTION?IS THERE ANY SOLUTION? A B
  11. 11. PRACTICES 6th Sept 2013 11 MessyMessyMessyMessy (complex,(complex,(complex,(complex, chaotic, infinite,…)chaotic, infinite,…)chaotic, infinite,…)chaotic, infinite,…) Live with it!Live with it!Live with it!Live with it! (the “best” choice)(the “best” choice)(the “best” choice)(the “best” choice)
  12. 12. REAL WORLD DECISION MAKING 6th Sept 2013 12 DecisionDecisionDecisionDecision MakerMakerMakerMaker Analyst/SupportAnalyst/SupportAnalyst/SupportAnalyst/Support information feedback Complex Dynamic NegotiationsNegotiationsNegotiationsNegotiations Infinite Information Information
  13. 13. 6th Sept 2013 13 IT ALL STARTED WITH…
  14. 14. 25 years long conflict Aceh 6th Sept 2013 14 25 YEARS OF CONFLICT
  15. 15. 6th Sept 2013 15 SYNCHRONIZING OBJECTIVE SIGNALS
  16. 16. DAMAGE ALONG ACEH-NIAS WAS UNPRECEDENTED 6th Sept 2013 16 172,000 dead & missing 550,000 in temporary shelters/tents 800 km x 1-6 km destroyed!
  17. 17. STRONG INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT TURNED INTO EXTREME LOGISTIC MANAGEMENT 6th Sept 2013 17 900 International Organizations 7.2 Billion USD 8,000 Volunteers 40 Countries 9 Mother Ships 14 War Ships Biggest military operation in the last 50 years, for non-military purpose
  18. 18. PLANNING FALLS BEHIND CHANGES 6th Sept 2013 18 • Build back, better! • Local government capacity building • Democratic environment • Mandate/entrustment Objective 2Objective 2Objective 2Objective 2 Objective 1Objective 1Objective 1Objective 1
  19. 19. NEGOTIATING UNDER SOVEREIGN INFLUENCE THE CASE OF IPP IN 2000 6th Sept 2013 19 Geothermal Non- geothermal Darajat 4.2 ¢/kwh Paiton 6.9 ¢/kwh • Process: out of court • Find Anchor
  20. 20. EXTREME COMPLEXITY DECISION MAKING 6th Sept 2013 20 Political EnvironmentSocial structure and dynamics “Problem Definition” Importance of process Actors and Interplays
  21. 21. SOCIALLY INCLUSIVE DECISION MAKING COMMUNITY PARTICIPATION FOR VILLAGE PLANNING 6th Sept 2013 21 Bottom-up Planning
  22. 22. COMMUNITIES DECIDE IF THEIR AREA WILL BE REBUILT WITH NEW LAND CONSOLIDATION OR KEPT AS IT WAS 6th Sept 2013 22 Houses built 6 months later, but eventually the property market value reaches 2-3 times higher
  23. 23. 23 BREAKTHROUGH IN FLOW OF FUNDS TO FACILITATE EASE OF EXECUTION Govt. of Indonesia 36%NGO 33% Bilateral & Multilateral donor Total commitment USD 6.7 Billion Examples Malahayati seaport Netherlands Calang- Meulaboh Road Japan Hospital in Calang Spain Meulaboh Seaport Singapore 31% 6th Sept 2013
  24. 24. GROUPS OBJECTIVES IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT: BUILDING TRUST THROUGH ACCOUNTABILITY FROM THE CONVENTIONAL ASSET INVENTORY SYSTEM...…TO A HIGHLY ACCURATE… GPS coordinate 6th Sept 2013 24 GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM
  25. 25. THE CHALLENGES… 6th Sept 2013 25
  26. 26. THE RESULTS… 6th Sept 2013 26
  27. 27. A DEVELOPMENT PACE NEVER SEEN BEFORE IN INDONESIAN HISTORY 6th Sept 2013 27
  28. 28. AMONG THE CHALLENGES… 6th Sept 2013 28 How to fight for adequate authorities? Master Plan VS bottom up approach Government ACTION VS Government ORCHESTRATION Accelerating through FEEDBACK? Coordination—NEGOTIATION ?
  29. 29. KEY LESSONS LEARNED FROM POST DISASTER RECONSTRUCTION 6th Sept 2013 29 NEVER expect perfect results Scrutinized FLEXIBILITY No TRANSPARENCY no TRUST INCLUSION is better planning Accelerated execution MINIMIZED feedback time=~
  30. 30. THE JOURNEY BACK TO JAKARTA PRESIDENT’S DELIVERY UNIT for Development Monitoring and Oversight (PDU or UKP4) 6th Sept 2013 30
  31. 31. IN 2009, THE PRESIDENT OF INDONESIA ESTABLISHED THE FIRST DELIVERY UNIT OF THE WORLD’S BIGGEST ARCHIPELAGO “UKP4 is my ears, eyes and hands” 6th Sept 2013 31
  32. 32. CONSISTENCY AND SYNCHRONIZATION IN DELIVERING THE VISION OF THE PRESIDENT SYNCHRONISATION CONSISTENCY UKP4, Planning Agency & MoF ACTION PLAN 400+ National Priority Action Plans Annualy 6th Sept 2013 32
  33. 33. CONSISTENCY AND SYNCHRONIZATION IN DELIVERING THE VISION OF THE PRESIDENT 6th Sept 2013 33 SYNCHRONISATION CONSISTENCY UKP4, Planning Agency & MoF ACTION PLAN 400+ National Priority Action Plans Annualy Mission Objectives Criteria =~ Targets
  34. 34. NATIONAL PRIORITIES OF THE REPUBLIC NATIONAL PRIORITIES (2010 – 14) Bureaucracy Reform & Governance 1 Education 2 Public Health 3 Poverty Eradication 4 Food Security 5 Infrastructure 6 Investment and Business Climate 7 Energy 8 Environment and Disaster Management 9 Disadvantaged, Border, Outermost and Post-Conflict Regions 10 Culture, Creativity and Technological Innovation 11 Others + 6th Sept 2013 34
  35. 35. LEADERSHIP STYLE AND BEHAVIOR 6th Sept 2013 35 Ministers The Parliamentarians Regional Leaders The Leaders
  36. 36. ASSUMPTION: COMMON OBJECTIVE 6th Sept 2013 36
  37. 37. 6th Sept 2013 37
  38. 38. THE POLITICS IN THE GOVERNMENT Coordinating Minister 1 Coordinating Minister 2 Coordinating Minister 3 Minister 1 Minister 2 Minister 3 Minister X Governor 1 Governor XEchelon 1 Echelon 2 Echelon 1 Echelon 2 Echelon 1 Echelon 2 Head of District 1 Mayor Head of District 2 Good Hard Difficult Governor 2 Nearly impossible 6th Sept 2013 38
  39. 39. 6th Sept 2013 39
  40. 40. IN REALITY… 6th Sept 2013 40 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
  41. 41. GEOSPATIAL INFORMATION SYSTEM TO ENSURE FIELD AND REPORTING CONSISTENCY (P100H-P13A1) Pamsimas Kupang 10.17385 LS, 123.9773 BT PLTU Kupang NTT 10.23872 LS, 123.49213 BT (N8P43A1) Pasar Tradisional Cimanggis 6,50538 LS 106,77531 BT (P100H-P23A3) Double Track Rel KA Serpong Maja 6 20’27,88’’ LS, 106 36’06,62’’ BT (N6P29A3) Pemeliharaan Jalan di Banda Aceh Lambaro (road to the airport) N6P28A1 PPS Lampulo Banda Aceh 5.586 LU, 95.318 BT P100H-P13A10 Reaksi Cepat Bencana Malang 07°55.3509’ LS, 112°42.4924’ BT (P100H-P44A2) Jalan Tol Porong – Sidoarjo 07°30.362’ LS, 112°41.960’ BT Jalan Tol Lintas Jawa PLTU Pacitan 8 15’30’’ LS, 111 22’30’’ BT 10.000 MW 6th Sept 2013 41
  42. 42. ASSURING SYNCHRONIZATION AND CONSISTENCY ACTION PLAN MINISTRY/ AGENCY IN CHARGE (MIC) RELATED AGENCY CRITERIA FOR SUCCESS MEASUREMENT OF SUCCESS MEASUREMENT OF SUCCESS D30, D50, D75, AND D100 % ACHIEVE- MENT EXPLANA- TION 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 N8P73: Construction of transportation infrastructure network and vehicle provision of intermodal and inter-islands transportation Construction of Floating Storage and Receiving Unit (FSRU) in North Sumatera, West Java and East Java Ministry of Energy and Mining Resources Ministry of Transport West Java Provincial Government Preparation activities for the construction of FSRT in North Sumatera, West Java and East Java TARGET: Execution of monitoring work for FSRU construction preparation in North Sumatera, West Java and East Java TARGET B04: Establishment of construction preparation monitoring unit B04: 100% Contract signed on April 14, 2010 TARGET B06: Finalized SOP for FSRU construction preparation monitoring B06: 114% 22.82% TARGET B08: Verification and evaluation of FSRTU construction barriers B08: XX% TARGET B10: Solution options for identified barriers B10: XX% TARGET B12: Construction preparation monitoring report finalization B12: XX%Realistic and measurable bi-monthly targets are formatted together with the MIC Derives from Presidential Directive 1/2010 Self reported by the MIC MIC coordinates other parties in achieving the target. 6th Sept 2013 42
  43. 43. DEBOTTLENECKING FLOATING STORAGE RECEIVING UNIT (FSRU) JAKARTA 6th Sept 2013 43 Location: Muara Karang, Jakarta Utara Coordinate: 6.108559, 106.781239 Site Monitoring : 13th Oct 2010 Status: • Fixed location to supply Muara Karang Power Plant • Ministry of Transport can not issue Location Permit due to hampered reccomendation from the Governor of Jakarta • Reclamation Mega Project in North Jakarta hampered the FSRU Project as well PROBLEM
  44. 44. COMPLICATION IN COORDINATION 6th Sept 2013 44 Coord. Min Economic Aff. Coord. Min People’s Welfare Coord. Min Politics, Legal and Security Aff. Min. of Transport Min. of Energy and Mineral Resources Min. of Environment Min. of Internal Affairs Governor of DKI Jakarta No Permit without EIA (AMDAL) No AMDAL without Gov. Recommendation Conflicting with Reclamation plan!! No FSRU! Jakarta will lose 60% power Escalation!Escalation!Escalation!Escalation!
  45. 45. ESCALATION LEADING TO EXECUTIVE DECISION 6th Sept 2013 45 “…I want the FSRU to be finished in 2012…”
  46. 46. 6th Sept 2013 46 DEBOTTLENECKING FLOATING STORAGE RECEIVING UNIT (FSRU) JAKARTA Issues identified in Aug 2010 FSRU inaugurated in Dec 2012
  47. 47. RESULTS FOR THE NATION 6th Sept 2013 47 • Full on-stream 1 September 2013 (260 BBTUD) • Fuel saving worth 2.4 million USD/day
  48. 48. MANY DOWN, MORE TO GO • Donggi Senoro Gas Field • Kalibaru New Port • MRT Jakarta • School Operational Assistance fund disbursement • Sarulla Geothermal Power Plant • Soekarno-Hatta Airport Expansion • Certification of Fishing Ships “INKA MINA” • National Strategy of Corruption Prevention and Eradication • Public housing (RUSUNAWA) resettlement • Implementing regulation for new Land Acquisition Law • Railway governance regulation (IMO-TAC) • National Agency of REDD+ • ONE MAP……and many more 6th Sept 2013 48
  49. 49. REAL WORLD DECISION MAKING 6th Sept 2013 49 DecisionDecisionDecisionDecision MakerMakerMakerMaker Analyst/SupportAnalyst/SupportAnalyst/SupportAnalyst/Support information feedback Complex Dynamic NegotiationsNegotiationsNegotiationsNegotiations Simple Information Information
  50. 50. 6th Sept 2013 50 DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL • Serving the Decision Maker • His choice and consequences • Provide the “best” options Ministries /Regions Tactical Rooms The President International Public Others Officials Country Leaders Other leaders Video/Audio Conference Ministries /Regions International Public Others Executive Room Inbound info center Outbound communication center IT Center / support room Ministries /Regions Ministries /Regions Tactical Rooms The President InternationalInternational PublicPublic OthersOthers Officials Country Leaders Other leaders Video/Audio Conference Ministries /Regions Ministries /Regions InternationalInternational PublicPublic OthersOthers Executive Room Inbound info center Outbound communication center IT Center / support room
  51. 51. 6th Sept 2013 51 Thank youThank youThank youThank you

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