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Class 6 Identifying and Validating Assumptions

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This evening I channeled the great Laura Klein to tell you how you are fooling yourself. No pets were harmed.

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Class 6 Identifying and Validating Assumptions

  1. 1. Developed by Christina Wodtke & Laura Klein (clever bits by Laura) with illustrations from Kate Rutter. @cwodtke | cwodtke.com @lauraklein | usersknow.com @katerutter | intelleto.com Class 6: Identifying and (In)Validating Assumptions @cwodtke www.eleganthack.com
  2. 2. Developed by Christina Wodtke & Laura Klein (clever bits by Laura) with illustrations from Kate Rutter. @cwodtke | cwodtke.com @lauraklein | usersknow.com @katerutter | intelleto.com
  3. 3. Developed by Christina Wodtke & Laura Klein (clever bits by Laura) with illustrations from Kate Rutter. @cwodtke | cwodtke.com @lauraklein | usersknow.com @katerutter | intelleto.com LAST WEEK 3
  4. 4. Developed by Christina Wodtke & Laura Klein (clever bits by Laura) with illustrations from Kate Rutter. @cwodtke | cwodtke.com @lauraklein | usersknow.com @katerutter | intelleto.com “NEVER WRITE ON THE BUSINESS MODEL CANVAS, THAT’S WHY GOD GAVE US POST-IT NOTES” -ALEX OSTERWALDER
  5. 5. Developed by Christina Wodtke & Laura Klein (clever bits by Laura) with illustrations from Kate Rutter. @cwodtke | cwodtke.com @lauraklein | usersknow.com @katerutter | intelleto.com
  6. 6. Developed by Christina Wodtke & Laura Klein (clever bits by Laura) with illustrations from Kate Rutter. @cwodtke | cwodtke.com @lauraklein | usersknow.com @katerutter | intelleto.com
  7. 7. Developed by Christina Wodtke & Laura Klein (clever bits by Laura) with illustrations from Kate Rutter. @cwodtke | cwodtke.com @lauraklein | usersknow.com @katerutter | intelleto.com Do the Math
  8. 8. Developed by Christina Wodtke & Laura Klein (clever bits by Laura) with illustrations from Kate Rutter. @cwodtke | cwodtke.com @lauraklein | usersknow.com @katerutter | intelleto.com ASSUMPTIONS 8
  9. 9. (If you’re lucky)Research Define Ideate Prototype Test Design Develop Waterfall
  10. 10. Meh Research Define Ideate Prototype Test Design Develop The Problem
  11. 11. Illustration by Kate Rutter
  12. 12. Lean is about Learning Be wary here. Build the smallest possible thing you can to answer a question.
  13. 13. Developed by Christina Wodtke & Laura Klein (clever bits by Laura) with illustrations from Kate Rutter. @cwodtke | cwodtke.com @lauraklein | usersknow.com @katerutter | intelleto.com From Google Ventures Design Sprint http://www.gv.com/lib/the-gv-research-sprint-a-4-day-process-for-answering-important-startup-questions
  14. 14. By using Lean Startup, we identify assumptions before we base our whole product strategy on them. Why is it better?
  15. 15. So, what is an assumption, anyway?
  16. 16. Types of Assumptions Problem Solution Implementation
  17. 17. Types of Assumptions Problem: Is there a problem? Solution: Is this the right way to solve it? Implementation: Can you build & sell it before running out of money?
  18. 18. Business concept by Laura Klein. Illustration by Kate Rutter
  19. 19. “People who have pets are upset by cost.” Problem Illustration by Kate Rutter
  20. 20. “People need a marketplace for pet jobs.” Solution Illustration by Kate Rutter
  21. 21. “Pets can work!” Implementation Illustration by Kate Rutter
  22. 22. DropBox For Example?
  23. 23. Do people have trouble accessing files across multiple devices? What’s The Problem?
  24. 24. People Have Multiple Devices People Want to Access the Same Files Across Those Devices This Is Hard to Do Problem Assumptions
  25. 25. Are people willing to download multiple applications and trust storing files in the cloud? What’s The Solution?
  26. 26. People Will Download DropBox on Multiple Devices People Will Trust the Service with Important Data People Understand How DropBox Folders Work Solution Assumptions
  27. 27. Can we sync files across multiple devices quickly and accurately enough? What’s The Implementation?
  28. 28. We Can Build a Product that Syncs Files Across Multiple Operating Systems The Product Will Sync Quickly and Accurately Implementation Assumptions
  29. 29. Your Turn
  30. 30. For Product to succeed, it is necessary that ___________________. Here’s The Template
  31. 31. Write down your assumptions 3For Product to succeed, it is necessary that ___________________.
  32. 32. Categorize Your Assumptions P S I 1
  33. 33. What Makes an Assumption Risky?
  34. 34. So, What’s Yours? Likely (to fail) Unlikely (to fail) Annoying Devastating 2
  35. 35. Building is NEVER your Riskiest Assumption
  36. 36. Ok, Almost Never Illustration by Kate Rutter
  37. 37. Targets Change Illustration by Kate Rutter
  38. 38. A hypothesis statement should contain: 1. What you believe 2. How you will know if you were right
  39. 39. Problem Hypothesis Example: We believe people like customer type have a need for (or problem doing) need/action/behavior. We will know we have validated this when we see quantitative/measurable outcome or qualitative/observable outcome. * *This text was almost entirely stolen from Janice Fraser.
  40. 40. Solution Hypothesis Example: We believe people like customer type will solve their problem by solution behavior. We will know we have validated this when we see quantitative/measurable outcome or qualitative/observable outcome.
  41. 41. Implementation Hypothesis Example: We believe our company can provide solution by implementation method. We will know we have validated this when we see quantitative/measurable outcome or qualitative/observable outcome.
  42. 42. Now You Try It Write Down: 1. What you believe 2. How you will know if you were right 2
  43. 43. Build Your Test
  44. 44. Various Types of Tests
  45. 45. Landing Pages
  46. 46. Landing pages are good for… learning whether people are interested enough in your idea to give you their email addresses
  47. 47. Landing pages are bad for… Everything Else
  48. 48. Landing pages help validate: The Problem
  49. 49. Audience Building
  50. 50. Audience Building is good for… learning the size of the audience you can attract to your product before committing a lot of money and technical resources.
  51. 51. How to build an audience 1. Give away expertise for free on a regular basis. 2. Establish yourself as an expert in the space. 3. Build a community of like minded people.
  52. 52. Audience Building helps validate: The Problem
  53. 53. Concierge
  54. 54. Concierge is good for… learning what is actually required for your product before committing a lot of money and technical resources.
  55. 55. Concierge: How Do You Do It? Provide a service for someone manually. Figure out the parts of the problem that users need the most help with.
  56. 56. Concierge helps you understand: The Problem Concierge helps validate: The Solution
  57. 57. Wizard of Oz
  58. 58. Wizard of Oz is good for… learning what you need to automate before committing a lot of money and technical resources
  59. 59. How Do You Do Wizard of Oz? Use humans instead of automation until you can’t. Do things that don’t scale.
  60. 60. Wizard of Oz helps validate: The Implementation
  61. 61. Fake Door
  62. 62. Fake Doors are good for… learning whether users have any interest in your feature before committing a lot of money and technical resources
  63. 63. Fake Door: How do you do it Add the first interaction with an interface. Provide a good experience for the user even if it’s not what they expect.
  64. 64. Fake Doors help validate: The Solution
  65. 65. Sell It
  66. 66. Selling is good for… learning whether users will pay for your product before committing a lot of money and technical resources
  67. 67. How do you Sell? Post your idea on Kickstarter Ask for a credit card or pre-payment
  68. 68. Selling helps validate: The Solution
  69. 69. Your Turn
  70. 70. Identify the Best Method of Validation Problem Solution Implement ation Landing Page Audience Building Concierge Wizard of Oz Fake Door Selling 3
  71. 71. @lauraklein | usersknow.com QUESTIONS? 80
  72. 72. Developed by Christina Wodtke & Laura Klein (clever bits by Laura) with illustrations from Kate Rutter. @cwodtke | cwodtke.com @lauraklein | usersknow.com @katerutter | intelleto.com Homework! •Create a landing page for your product (or run some other validation test if you prefer).

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