Increasing Food Security in South Asia Through Sustainable Cereal Systems Intensification
1. Objective 1 Planning Meeting
The Big Picture
Etienne Duveiller
CIMMYT, Director of Research for South Asia
CSISA Project Leader
Kathmandu, Nepal
January 27, 2013
2. Cereal Systems
Multidisciplinary
Multi-partners
Multi-centers
Technologies
Participatory Research
Impact at Scale
3. Project Goal… To increase food, nutrition, and
income security in South Asia
through sustainable intensification
of cereal-based systems
4. Linking with livestock
with inno va tive a g ro no m y : whe a t + be rs e e m
Treatments Green Wheat Yield Net returns
Fodder (kg/ha) (USD/ha)
(kg/ha)
15025 4528 729
Wheat + Berseem, with cut
0 4917 507
Sole Wheat (no cut)
Mixed cropping and
dual purpose wheat
(fodder + grain) can
significantly improve
economic returns and
provide high-quality
fodder during lean
Courtesy Dr. Kamboj, Haryana periods.
5. CSISA’s geography
I va tio n ‘hubs ’ a c ro s s So uth A ia
nno s
Focus on the IGP: soils
and water resources
to feed South Asia
6. Favorably evolving policies, markets,
social indicators
● Educational levels rising rapidly
● Technological innovation / application
accelerating
● Cheaper / faster communication dissolving
physical and social barriers
● Better information more widely available
● Globalization opening new markets
● BUT STILL WIDESPREAD POVERTY
7. Converging Challenges
Climate Change
heat, drought, extreme events
Water Nutrients-Soils
groundwater fertilizer cost
surface water deleted soils
Energy Insects-Diseases
diesel cost Yellow/ Stem rusts
biofuels Aphids and Stem borers
Demand
population growth
changing diets
8. Global demand will grow dramatically as
population and incomes rise
“In the next 50 years we will
need to produce as much
food as has been consumed
over our entire human
history.”
Megan Clark, CEO of the
Commonwealth Scientific and
Industrial Research Organisation
(CSIRO), Australia
9. Borlaug’s 1969 prophecy
“The seriousness or magnitude of
the world food problem should not
be underestimated. Recent
success in expanding wheat, rice
and maize production in Asian
countries offers the possibility of
buying 20-30 years of time”
N.E. Borlaug, 1969 – A Green
Revolution Yields a Golden
Harvest
10. Maize and Wheat in
South Asia and India
(Production, FAOSTAT, 2010)
Global yield
growth
is slower
The Economist 26th Feb. 2011
12. Extreme climatic
events in 2010...
New record high in Food Price Index
in December 2010 (FAO/GIEWS)
● Floods in Pakistan
• Fires and drought in
Russia in summer
in July
• Floods in Queensland,
in December
14. Climate
change
Water, nutrient &
energy scarcity Projected
demand by
2050 (FAO)
Diseases
World-wide average yield
Linear
The more we delay extrapolations
of current
investments, the trends
(tons ha-1)
Potential effect
steeper the of climate-
change-induced
challenge heat stress on
today’s cultivars
(intermediate
Agronomy Breeding
CO2 emission
scenario)
MANY ROADBLOCKS…. BUT PLENTY OF INGENUITY
Year
15. Groundwater withdrawals (% of recharge)
• During the last decade
Northern India’s ground-
water levels have fallen as
much as 30 cm per year.
• More than 109 cubic km
of groundwater
disappeared from the
region's aquifers between
2002 & 2008.
Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment
(GRACE) , T. Shindler and M. Rodell
(UMBC), NASA/Goddard
Source: M Rodell et al. Nature 460, 999-1002 (2009)
doi:10.1038/nature08238
16. The Effects of Global Warming on Agriculture
Percent change in production for the world’s eight largest growers (by the 2080’s)
Source: Scientific American,
August 2010
18. Closing the yield gap will not be enough
South Asia in 2012
Wheat self-sufficient
19. Closing the yield gap will not be enough
South Asia in 2050
20- 30% reduction in wheat
production due to climate change
Demand increase: 40%
• 3 IPCC Climate Models
•17-38% Reduction in High Potential Zone
20. Improving Livelihoods while Safeguarding the
Environment
Example: CSISA
Approaches and Outputs
● Conservation agriculture systems incorporating
newest technologies and know-how
● Adapt and adopt high tech solutions for
precision agriculture to smallholders
● Cellular phones complement extension
services
23. Axioms for success with innovation hubs
•There is no universal template for
agricultural development
•Blending scientific rigor with participatory,
demand-lead approaches to technology
development is a must.
•Technologies alone are typically insufficient
(markets, capital, risk, communications
…)
24. NOVATION + DURABLE PRODUCTS + SUPPORT TO CHANGE AGEN
OPERATIONAL MODEL FOR GOING TO SCALE IN
CSISA PHASE II
25. Cross-cutting Activities
● Professional development and capacity
building
● Monitoring and Evaluation
● Data Collection and Analysis
● Documenting Research and Impact
27. DDG CIMMYT
(Research and Partnerships)
Regional Advisory Forum Executive Committee
For Cereal Systems Research Project Leader: Etienne Duveiller (CIMMYT, IRRI, IFPRI, ILRI, WF
regional reps + Obj leaders)
Objective Leaders (1 & 2: Andrew McDonald, 3: JK Ladha, 4: Hans Braun, 5: David Spielman) + IARC Science Team
PAK (TBD with new NP Country Coordinator IN Country Coordinator BD Country Coordinator
project) (Medha Devare) (Andrew McDonald) (Tim Russell )
Country Management Team Country Management Team
IRRI: Takashi Yamano CIMMYT: TP Tiwari / F. Rossi
Nepal Hubs ILRI: Nils Teufel WF: C Meisner / M. Hossain
IFPRI: Patrick Ward IFPRI: TBD
India Hubs Bangladesh Hubs
Advisory and Investment Advisory and Investment
Committees Committees
Editor's Notes
There are encouraging trends as witnessed by good production reports in India such as a 92 million tons of wheat harvested in 2012 favored by an exceptional weather. Global wheat yield growth however have been plateauing. Global yield growth of cereals are struggling to keep up with the annual population growth rate: crop yield are growing more slowly. The relative exception is maize which benefits from massive investment in research from the private sector. Growth in population and demand for food have both slowed down but crop yields have slowed more.
Poverty is the root cause of malnutrition. Price increases are good for farmers. Food price increases push net consumers back into poverty because the share of household expenses in food becomes major and does not allow families to spend in education and health. This can cause political instability. Small farmers contribute both to crop diversification (high value vegetable production and up to 52 % of cereal production) but policies need to be in place to access input, credit and markets.
There are also more extreme climatic events such as those we have seen in 2010. Given the relatively inelastic demand for food throughout much of the world, such declines in production result in significant price increases for agricultural commodities.
And willingness to take risk…
2050 >> feeding a warming world: Researchers have recently started to untangle the complex ways rising temperatures will affect global agriculture. They expect climate change to lead to longer growing seasons in some countries; in others the heat will increase the frequency of extreme weather events or the prevalence of pests. In the U.S., productivity is expected to rise in the Plains states but fall further in the already struggling Southwest. Russia and China will gain; India and Mexico will lose. In general, developing nations will take the biggest hits. By 2050 counteracting the ill effects of climate change on nutrition will cost more than $7 billion a year.
Time for an efficiency drive: there will be no big gain from taking new land, using more fertiliser, more irrigation. Cutting waste could make a difference but there are limits: The main gains will come in three ways: 1) narrowing the gaps between the worst and best producers; 2) using new technologies and 3) spreading a livestock revolution.